Sandicor MLS Statics are out and it really ain’t pretty

[little lady]

September is down quite a bit more than the previous 18 months, this has got to be bad news…………ouch!

http://sandicor.com/statistics/stats2007/09-2007/September-2007.pdf

[niy38]

it’s really bad, jumping into water now.

lowest since Jan, 2006, from the stats.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

bad news for who???

the realtors???

let them go back to having “imagination Christmas” for a change;)

Rough calculation @ 6%:

$27 MILLION fewer commission dollars to go around than the same month last year!!! That’s gonna leave a mark!!

[bsrsharma]

If you see these detailed statistics http://sandicor.com/statistics/stats2007/09-2007/sfd-09-07-stats.pdf

Some things are surprising:

Average DOM seems reasonable; most areas less than 90 days. Is this reliable or fudged on MLS? If DOM is so low, why Months of Inventory is high many times? Anyway to reconcile these?

Some unusual areas of strength: Chula Vista, Escondido, San Marcos, Claremont Mesa all have sold Jumbo priced properties.

[little lady]

“Average DOM seems reasonable; most areas less than 90 days. Is this reliable or fudged on MLS? If DOM is so low, why Months of Inventory is high many times? Anyway to reconcile these”

DOM is definitely fabricated. My own agent told me that. He takes a listing for 60 days and if it doesn’t sell he relists it.

I noticed the high MOI as well, and it’s only gonna get worse….waiting with baited breath now…………

[bsrsharma]

DOM is definitely fabricated. My own agent told me that. He takes a listing for 60 days and if it doesn't sell he relists it.

If so, they are hurting everyone. If I am a seller, I see these small DOM and think the market is healthy and not price it low enough to sell, thus chasing the market down. If the MLS can be made to reflect true DOM, potential sellers will get shivers in their spine on seeing DOMs like 180/ 360/540 and will price it aggressively, shortening the suffering for everyone.

[bsrsharma]

DOM is definitely fabricated. My own agent told me that. He takes a listing for 60 days and if it doesn't sell he relists it.

If so, they are hurting everyone. If I am a seller, I see these small DOM and think the market is healthy and not price it low enough to sell, thus chasing the market down. If the MLS can be made to reflect true DOM, potential sellers will get shivers in their spine on seeing DOMs like 180/ 360/540 and will price it aggressively, shortening the suffering for everyone.

[little lady]

“Average DOM seems reasonable; most areas less than 90 days. Is this reliable or fudged on MLS? If DOM is so low, why Months of Inventory is high many times? Anyway to reconcile these”

DOM is definitely fabricated. My own agent told me that. He takes a listing for 60 days and if it doesn’t sell he relists it.

I noticed the high MOI as well, and it’s only gonna get worse….waiting with baited breath now…………

[Duck]

After a quick look, all North County coastal zips (Cardiff to Carlsbad) show YOY price increases even though sales were lower and August/September were the big credit crunch months. While monthly median prices are not the end-all be-all gauge it seems odd that every single one saw increases in this environment.

Oceanside as well as that other coastal city near LaJolla, Santee, showed price declines and heavy sales declines. Seems like there is a big divergence in areas where subprime loans were the prevailing choice of purchases and re-fi’s.

[Duck]

After a quick look, all North County coastal zips (Cardiff to Carlsbad) show YOY price increases even though sales were lower and August/September were the big credit crunch months. While monthly median prices are not the end-all be-all gauge it seems odd that every single one saw increases in this environment.

Oceanside as well as that other coastal city near LaJolla, Santee, showed price declines and heavy sales declines. Seems like there is a big divergence in areas where subprime loans were the prevailing choice of purchases and re-fi’s.

[raptorduck]

bsrsharma, thanks for posting this very useful info.

[SD Realtor]

BSR it is indeed unfortunate when a listing agent does not give a seller the complete picture of the local market where the seller intends to sell. It is absolutely important to consider ALL of the statistics including the local sales volume (on a yoy basis), the months inventory, the active pending ratio, the local competition, and of course the expired/cancelled/withdrawn statistics. That way the seller can get a very informed picture of the situation.

As far as buyers go, Raptor make sure that any home you are really interested in is researched thoroughly. Please consult with your agent as to what he/she should gather for you. It makes a huge difference.

SD Realtor

[Eugene]

a friend of mine has a house in Clairemont. He says that his neighbor’s 3br 1800 sq ft house just sold for 610k after TWO DAYS on the market.

it’s going to be hard to convince him that we have a bursting bubble.

[nostradamus]

Post the address and let the pigs check out the real deal on that house.

[nostradamus]

Post the address and let the pigs check out the real deal on that house.

[bsrsharma]

The neighbors house must be “High end” for Clairemont. This is how SD 92117 home prices stacked up during 2005:

http://www.city-data.com/zips/92117.html

$150,000 to $174,999: 1023
$175,000 to $199,999: 2076
$200,000 to $249,999: 3812
$250,000 to $299,999: 1758
$300,000 to $399,999: 1094
$400,000 to $499,999: 435
$500,000 to $749,999: 164
$750,000 to $999,999: 12
$1,000,000 or more: 30

[oxfordrick]

DOM represents days on market for homes that SOLD.

DOM for homes that have not sold is infinity.

Neither statistic very useful.

[bsrsharma]

Neither statistic very useful.

Say you want to sell a house.

case 1: You see DOM for neighborhood = 10

case 2: You see DOM for neighborhood = 177

Won't it affect how you price your listing?

What would I do?

Case 1: I will list at about median $/sqft, after considering other things

Case 2: I will list a little below the lowest $/sqft, after considering other things.

Why? Heck I want to sell, take my money and get on with my life. I am not watching a movie!

 

[Artifact]

As a follow up from Rich’s last post – I plotted out the Sandicor Sales data back to 1999 to compare the seasonal variability – I don’t think a lot needs to be said about this figure – sales are at the lowest point for all of the data I had and 2007 has been very low across the board – lower in every month than in any of the previous 7 years.

[img_assist|nid=5078|title= Monthly Sales Data from Sandicor|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=362]

[sdrealtor]

artifact,
great graph. The interesting thing I took away is that highest recordly sales during a given month were between July 2003 and Feb 2004 when the majority of the appreciation occurred. Seems kinda obvious but still nice to see it graphically.

[gn]

To me, the most telling statistic is the “values of closed sales”.

Aug. 2006 $1,580,567,152
Sep. 2006 $1,321,094,956

16% reduction. This change is due to “seasonal reasons” (i.e. families with children tend to buy larger houses & close during the summer before schools start).

Aug. 2007 $1,328,689,822
Sep. 2007 $872,492,175

34% reduction. This is due to seasonal reasons & the credit squeeze.

[little lady]

“Aug. 2007 $1,328,689,822
Sep. 2007 $872,492,175

34% reduction. This is due to seasonal reasons & the credit squeeze”

Heck ya’ just wait ’til next month!

[little lady]

“Aug. 2007 $1,328,689,822
Sep. 2007 $872,492,175

34% reduction. This is due to seasonal reasons & the credit squeeze”

Heck ya’ just wait ’til next month!

[gn]

To me, the most telling statistic is the “values of closed sales”.

Aug. 2006 $1,580,567,152
Sep. 2006 $1,321,094,956

16% reduction. This change is due to “seasonal reasons” (i.e. families with children tend to buy larger houses & close during the summer before schools start).

Aug. 2007 $1,328,689,822
Sep. 2007 $872,492,175

34% reduction. This is due to seasonal reasons & the credit squeeze.

[sdrealtor]

artifact,
great graph. The interesting thing I took away is that highest recordly sales during a given month were between July 2003 and Feb 2004 when the majority of the appreciation occurred. Seems kinda obvious but still nice to see it graphically.

[Artifact]

As a follow up from Rich’s last post – I plotted out the Sandicor Sales data back to 1999 to compare the seasonal variability – I don’t think a lot needs to be said about this figure – sales are at the lowest point for all of the data I had and 2007 has been very low across the board – lower in every month than in any of the previous 7 years.

[img_assist|nid=5078|title= Monthly Sales Data from Sandicor|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=362]

[bsrsharma]

Neither statistic very useful.

Say you want to sell a house.

case 1: You see DOM for neighborhood = 10

case 2: You see DOM for neighborhood = 177

Won't it affect how you price your listing?

What would I do?

Case 1: I will list at about median $/sqft, after considering other things

Case 2: I will list a little below the lowest $/sqft, after considering other things.

Why? Heck I want to sell, take my money and get on with my life. I am not watching a movie!

 

[oxfordrick]

DOM represents days on market for homes that SOLD.

DOM for homes that have not sold is infinity.

Neither statistic very useful.

[Eugene]

3000 houses/condos worth less than 200k in Clairemont in 2005?

I can see how a 1br 500 sq ft condo could be worth that much, but are there so many 1br condos in that area?

Right now realestate.yahoo.com is showing 164 houses/condos for sale in 92117, 83 above 500k, 24 above 700k.

[bsrsharma]

esmith – I clipped off the lower half of the stack (as being uninteresting). This is what it says:

$15,000 to $19,999: 7
$20,000 to $24,999: 14
$25,000 to $29,999: 5
$30,000 to $34,999: 8
$35,000 to $39,999: 9
$40,000 to $49,999: 13
$50,000 to $59,999: 8
$80,000 to $89,999: 32
$90,000 to $99,999: 44
$100,000 to $124,999: 201
$125,000 to $149,999: 343

What does it say? It confirms my observation that it is a generally run down area with a few high end homes probably on the boundaries. The lower half of the stack are most likely mobile homes/trailer parks.

[Eugene]

What does it say? It confirms my observation that it is a generally run down area with a few high end homes probably on the boundaries.

Most likely it says that the data is not very reliable. I work 5 miles from Clairemont, it’s not Rancho Santa Fe but it’s certainly not a run down area. There is a trailer park east of 805 that’s in Kearny Mesa but technically in 92117, that’s where all weird 5-digit prices must be coming from. Other than that it’s a middle-class neighborhood, mostly built in 50’s and 60’s, 1000-1500 sq ft single family houses, some apartments and condo complexes.

[bsrsharma]

esmith – Could it be the prices are somewhat lower due to nearness to the Miramar airfield and Miramar landfill? There are not too many places in San Diego that sold many good SFRs for under $300K during 2005.

[SD Realtor]

raptor sounds like you are in good shape.

bsr – I would not classify clairemont as a rundown area. 92117 is pretty diverse with mid level and more lower/mid level housing stock. It is also characterized as somewhat older housing stock. There is alot of attached housing stock as well.

I think 92117 will be a good candidate for larger drops due to alot of speculative and/or risky purchases. By the same token there are alot of equity rich folk there as well. None of the 92117 housing stock is near the landfill or miramar.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

raptor sounds like you are in good shape.

bsr – I would not classify clairemont as a rundown area. 92117 is pretty diverse with mid level and more lower/mid level housing stock. It is also characterized as somewhat older housing stock. There is alot of attached housing stock as well.

I think 92117 will be a good candidate for larger drops due to alot of speculative and/or risky purchases. By the same token there are alot of equity rich folk there as well. None of the 92117 housing stock is near the landfill or miramar.

SD Realtor

[bsrsharma]

esmith – Could it be the prices are somewhat lower due to nearness to the Miramar airfield and Miramar landfill? There are not too many places in San Diego that sold many good SFRs for under $300K during 2005.

[Eugene]

What does it say? It confirms my observation that it is a generally run down area with a few high end homes probably on the boundaries.

Most likely it says that the data is not very reliable. I work 5 miles from Clairemont, it’s not Rancho Santa Fe but it’s certainly not a run down area. There is a trailer park east of 805 that’s in Kearny Mesa but technically in 92117, that’s where all weird 5-digit prices must be coming from. Other than that it’s a middle-class neighborhood, mostly built in 50’s and 60’s, 1000-1500 sq ft single family houses, some apartments and condo complexes.

[bsrsharma]

esmith – I clipped off the lower half of the stack (as being uninteresting). This is what it says:

$15,000 to $19,999: 7
$20,000 to $24,999: 14
$25,000 to $29,999: 5
$30,000 to $34,999: 8
$35,000 to $39,999: 9
$40,000 to $49,999: 13
$50,000 to $59,999: 8
$80,000 to $89,999: 32
$90,000 to $99,999: 44
$100,000 to $124,999: 201
$125,000 to $149,999: 343

What does it say? It confirms my observation that it is a generally run down area with a few high end homes probably on the boundaries. The lower half of the stack are most likely mobile homes/trailer parks.

[Eugene]

3000 houses/condos worth less than 200k in Clairemont in 2005?

I can see how a 1br 500 sq ft condo could be worth that much, but are there so many 1br condos in that area?

Right now realestate.yahoo.com is showing 164 houses/condos for sale in 92117, 83 above 500k, 24 above 700k.

[bsrsharma]

The neighbors house must be “High end” for Clairemont. This is how SD 92117 home prices stacked up during 2005:

http://www.city-data.com/zips/92117.html

$150,000 to $174,999: 1023
$175,000 to $199,999: 2076
$200,000 to $249,999: 3812
$250,000 to $299,999: 1758
$300,000 to $399,999: 1094
$400,000 to $499,999: 435
$500,000 to $749,999: 164
$750,000 to $999,999: 12
$1,000,000 or more: 30

[Eugene]

a friend of mine has a house in Clairemont. He says that his neighbor’s 3br 1800 sq ft house just sold for 610k after TWO DAYS on the market.

it’s going to be hard to convince him that we have a bursting bubble.

[raptorduck]

SDR. On the few homes I am interested in in RSF I know what they last sold for, property taxes, additions, improvements, why they sold and why they are selling, on top of the usual statistics of their listing histories, relisting histories, price drops etc.

Now I am just trying to gather as much info on the neighborhoods as I can, beyond the typical demographics, school, CC&R’s, zoning regs, etc info; the insider stuff. Not that many folks standing up for Cielo, a few more for Santaluz. Everyone seems to love FBR. I think I now know more about FBR than the association does? Ok, maybe not, you can never know enough. But I think I may be able to pass a FBR entry exam now.

[raptorduck]

SDR. On the few homes I am interested in in RSF I know what they last sold for, property taxes, additions, improvements, why they sold and why they are selling, on top of the usual statistics of their listing histories, relisting histories, price drops etc.

Now I am just trying to gather as much info on the neighborhoods as I can, beyond the typical demographics, school, CC&R’s, zoning regs, etc info; the insider stuff. Not that many folks standing up for Cielo, a few more for Santaluz. Everyone seems to love FBR. I think I now know more about FBR than the association does? Ok, maybe not, you can never know enough. But I think I may be able to pass a FBR entry exam now.

[SD Realtor]

BSR it is indeed unfortunate when a listing agent does not give a seller the complete picture of the local market where the seller intends to sell. It is absolutely important to consider ALL of the statistics including the local sales volume (on a yoy basis), the months inventory, the active pending ratio, the local competition, and of course the expired/cancelled/withdrawn statistics. That way the seller can get a very informed picture of the situation.

As far as buyers go, Raptor make sure that any home you are really interested in is researched thoroughly. Please consult with your agent as to what he/she should gather for you. It makes a huge difference.

SD Realtor

[raptorduck]

bsrsharma, thanks for posting this very useful info.

[bsrsharma]

If you see these detailed statistics http://sandicor.com/statistics/stats2007/09-2007/sfd-09-07-stats.pdf

Some things are surprising:

Average DOM seems reasonable; most areas less than 90 days. Is this reliable or fudged on MLS? If DOM is so low, why Months of Inventory is high many times? Anyway to reconcile these?

Some unusual areas of strength: Chula Vista, Escondido, San Marcos, Claremont Mesa all have sold Jumbo priced properties.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

bad news for who???

the realtors???

let them go back to having “imagination Christmas” for a change;)

Rough calculation @ 6%:

$27 MILLION fewer commission dollars to go around than the same month last year!!! That’s gonna leave a mark!!

[niy38]

it’s really bad, jumping into water now.

lowest since Jan, 2006, from the stats.

[raptorduck]

With 17 months inventory you would think RSF sellers would drop their prices, but not the ones I am looking at. They are holding firm even after more than 100 days on the market.

The conclusion is that they can afford to wait out the down turn and don’t need to sell. Well, I don’t need to buy either, not at their prices. Not in this market.

[patientlywaiting]

The RSF folks need to absorb 2 years of holding costs before they begin lower prices. Let’s see if they can outlast the downturn. Or might it be the other way around?

[patientlywaiting]

The RSF folks need to absorb 2 years of holding costs before they begin lower prices. Let’s see if they can outlast the downturn. Or might it be the other way around?

[raptorduck]

With 17 months inventory you would think RSF sellers would drop their prices, but not the ones I am looking at. They are holding firm even after more than 100 days on the market.

The conclusion is that they can afford to wait out the down turn and don’t need to sell. Well, I don’t need to buy either, not at their prices. Not in this market.

[Author]

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