Bay area market going up?

[gn]

San Jose is considered a less prestigious area of the Bay Area, and home prices are DROPPING here, but not yet as dramatically as seen in San Diego

stockstradr, at this time last year when prices in SD were dropping, prices in the bay area was holding up pretty well. That tells me: the bay area is merely lagging the rest. The myth that "it's different in the bay area" is just that, a myth.

In 2005, I moved from the bay area to SD for a job change. I lived in the bay area for a few years, so, I know the bay area "mentality" well. The denial factor in the bay area is very strong.

 

 

 

[gn]

San Jose is considered a less prestigious area of the Bay Area, and home prices are DROPPING here, but not yet as dramatically as seen in San Diego

stockstradr, at this time last year when prices in SD were dropping, prices in the bay area was holding up pretty well. That tells me: the bay area is merely lagging the rest. The myth that "it's different in the bay area" is just that, a myth.

In 2005, I moved from the bay area to SD for a job change. I lived in the bay area for a few years, so, I know the bay area "mentality" well. The denial factor in the bay area is very strong.

 

 

 

[Anonymous]

The “Bay Area” is a 9 count them NINE county metropolitan area. You think you have variety in San Diego county? Microclimates? Commute patterns that vary from 15 minutes to 3+ hours? Well, they are here as well, in spades.

What we do NOT have up here is the amount of new homes being built that you have down there. There simply is NOT the choice in many areas of a new builder model competing with the existing housing stock. So that particular pressure chasing prices down is significantly less than what you have in say, Temecula.

In nice suburbs with attractive commute times and excellent public schools, prices have held up well. In the outlying areas with lots of subprime loans blowing up and foreclosures rising, well, Piggingtonians can figure out what’s happening there.

Our salaries are a LOT higher up here than in San Diego. And yes, the cheaper dollar has a lot of foreign buyers picking up that little pied-a-terre in SOMA or Russian Hill with their newly valuable rupees or Loonies or Euros.

My observations of the local markets is that they are bi-and trifurcating. Low end condos going down. Entry level SFRs in bad neighborhoods dead as doornails. In good neighborhoods, holding their own or increasing. Luxury homes up up up. McMansions? Lol.

Oh, and by the way? They are TRACT homes not track homes. Track homes are where sprinters and hurdlers live.

[Anonymous]

The “Bay Area” is a 9 count them NINE county metropolitan area. You think you have variety in San Diego county? Microclimates? Commute patterns that vary from 15 minutes to 3+ hours? Well, they are here as well, in spades.

What we do NOT have up here is the amount of new homes being built that you have down there. There simply is NOT the choice in many areas of a new builder model competing with the existing housing stock. So that particular pressure chasing prices down is significantly less than what you have in say, Temecula.

In nice suburbs with attractive commute times and excellent public schools, prices have held up well. In the outlying areas with lots of subprime loans blowing up and foreclosures rising, well, Piggingtonians can figure out what’s happening there.

Our salaries are a LOT higher up here than in San Diego. And yes, the cheaper dollar has a lot of foreign buyers picking up that little pied-a-terre in SOMA or Russian Hill with their newly valuable rupees or Loonies or Euros.

My observations of the local markets is that they are bi-and trifurcating. Low end condos going down. Entry level SFRs in bad neighborhoods dead as doornails. In good neighborhoods, holding their own or increasing. Luxury homes up up up. McMansions? Lol.

Oh, and by the way? They are TRACT homes not track homes. Track homes are where sprinters and hurdlers live.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

I grew up in the Mountain View/Los Altos (off San Antonio Road and Foothill Expressway) area, and can attest that there are huge differences in the quality of the various communities just in Santa Clara county.

There really is no comparison between parts of Los Altos, Los Altos Hills and Palo Alto to, say, Sunnyvale, San Jose or Milpitas. However, prices per square foot in even in some of the rattier parts of Sunnyvale and San Jose are holding steady at around $700/sf.

You get up into Marin County and the prices can climb upwards of $900/sf in Greenbrae, Larkspur and Millbrae. These towns are not upscale like Sausalito, but command very high prices due to the “Marin County” cachet.

While I agree that the SF/Bay Area is probably no different than LA, Orange County or San Diego, prices there have shown a surreal ability to defy gravity over the years. That is not to say they won’t come down, or haven’t come down in the past (they have), just that they are remarkably sticky on the way down.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

I grew up in the Mountain View/Los Altos (off San Antonio Road and Foothill Expressway) area, and can attest that there are huge differences in the quality of the various communities just in Santa Clara county.

There really is no comparison between parts of Los Altos, Los Altos Hills and Palo Alto to, say, Sunnyvale, San Jose or Milpitas. However, prices per square foot in even in some of the rattier parts of Sunnyvale and San Jose are holding steady at around $700/sf.

You get up into Marin County and the prices can climb upwards of $900/sf in Greenbrae, Larkspur and Millbrae. These towns are not upscale like Sausalito, but command very high prices due to the “Marin County” cachet.

While I agree that the SF/Bay Area is probably no different than LA, Orange County or San Diego, prices there have shown a surreal ability to defy gravity over the years. That is not to say they won’t come down, or haven’t come down in the past (they have), just that they are remarkably sticky on the way down.

[gn]

Colombo,

Within a metropolitan area, all sub-markets are “connected”.
The “bi-and trifurcating” that you observed is only a temporary phenomena. Any competent RE appraiser will tell you this.

There is a large number of newly built homes in Contra Costa county & Solano county. When prices go down in Contra Costa county & Solano county, that’s bad news for the rest of the bay area. As prices collapse in the east bay, it will draw buyers from the rest of the bay area.

I would even go as far as saying, when prices go down in the central valley (Tracy, Modesto …), it’s bad news for the bay area. That’s because many folks there commute daily to the bay area.

[gn]

Colombo,

Within a metropolitan area, all sub-markets are “connected”.
The “bi-and trifurcating” that you observed is only a temporary phenomena. Any competent RE appraiser will tell you this.

There is a large number of newly built homes in Contra Costa county & Solano county. When prices go down in Contra Costa county & Solano county, that’s bad news for the rest of the bay area. As prices collapse in the east bay, it will draw buyers from the rest of the bay area.

I would even go as far as saying, when prices go down in the central valley (Tracy, Modesto …), it’s bad news for the bay area. That’s because many folks there commute daily to the bay area.

[justme]

Raptorduck sounds like a realtor troll that is trying to sow doubt about the bubble deflating, based on anecdotes of doubtful accuracy about Los Altos.

Dude, 14 houses and 2 Townhomes closed escrow in Los Altos in Sep. As of yesterday, there were 65 residences in MLS. That’s a 4month supply. Transactions are closing at slow pace.

Sure, Los Altos is a a entral “fortress” area of the SF Bay Area (LA, LAH, PA, MTV), and hence will be the last to cave. So what? Your thesis proves absolutely nothing.

[justme]

Raptorduck sounds like a realtor troll that is trying to sow doubt about the bubble deflating, based on anecdotes of doubtful accuracy about Los Altos.

Dude, 14 houses and 2 Townhomes closed escrow in Los Altos in Sep. As of yesterday, there were 65 residences in MLS. That’s a 4month supply. Transactions are closing at slow pace.

Sure, Los Altos is a a entral “fortress” area of the SF Bay Area (LA, LAH, PA, MTV), and hence will be the last to cave. So what? Your thesis proves absolutely nothing.

[raptorduck]

justme. I am not a realtor or troll. Since I am in buying mode and plan to rent out my current house, I am hoping the market keeps dropping.

I took the stats right out of the MLS report for September. And as SD Realtor will tell you, under 6 months inventory is generally consdidered a seller’s market.

BTW. The 105% # is for Los Altos. Los Altos Hills was 95% in September.

[raptorduck]

justme. I am not a realtor or troll. Since I am in buying mode and plan to rent out my current house, I am hoping the market keeps dropping.

I took the stats right out of the MLS report for September. And as SD Realtor will tell you, under 6 months inventory is generally consdidered a seller’s market.

BTW. The 105% # is for Los Altos. Los Altos Hills was 95% in September.

[justme]

Raptorduck,

I have no way of verifying what industry you are employed in, or otherwise associated with.

Your headline “Bay area market going up?” is very misleading. There is a huge difference between what the headline says and the facts of the SF Bay Area market.

Data about one carefully selected city (Los Altos) proves nothing, in fact it probably indicates the opposite of what you are claiming, by being one of 3-4 cities that are still somewhat being the exception to the rule.

It is not a coincidence that you brought up Los Altos, is it?

[justme]

Raptorduck,

I have no way of verifying what industry you are employed in, or otherwise associated with.

Your headline “Bay area market going up?” is very misleading. There is a huge difference between what the headline says and the facts of the SF Bay Area market.

Data about one carefully selected city (Los Altos) proves nothing, in fact it probably indicates the opposite of what you are claiming, by being one of 3-4 cities that are still somewhat being the exception to the rule.

It is not a coincidence that you brought up Los Altos, is it?

[raptorduck]

justme. Ok, bad choice of headline. My bad. I brought up LA and LAH because those were the markets I was looking in before I decided to start looking at RSF and are the only markets I am keeping close tabs on now. I was surprised with the LA number, hence why my headling had a “?.”

I am not claiming anything. I have no idea where the market is going although I do share the sentitments of folks here that it is probably going further south; except of course my current neighborhood in San Jose. The market there is going up, way up, by leaps and bounds, buy while you can and make sure to offer way above asking.

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