[Duck]

I wouldn’t short insurance companies. The estimated $1.6 billion loss is peanuts to them and this year’s losses are much less than they had planned for thanks to no hurricanes.

If you want to short think banks and brokers although with another Fed cut likely next week that’s not for sure. I still think the homebuilders have another leg down but the short interest is so high in most of them that all the covering has kept them flat or even higher for the last couple months.

[Duck]

I wouldn’t short insurance companies. The estimated $1.6 billion loss is peanuts to them and this year’s losses are much less than they had planned for thanks to no hurricanes.

If you want to short think banks and brokers although with another Fed cut likely next week that’s not for sure. I still think the homebuilders have another leg down but the short interest is so high in most of them that all the covering has kept them flat or even higher for the last couple months.

[Duck]

You state that the money would have gone elsewhere. That’s not true. The money will come from insurance companies, none of which are located in San Diego. The insurance companies will in turn raise rates all over the country not just in SD.

[Duck]

You state that the money would have gone elsewhere. That’s not true. The money will come from insurance companies, none of which are located in San Diego. The insurance companies will in turn raise rates all over the country not just in SD.

[Duck]

You state that the money would have gone elsewhere. That’s not true. The money will come from insurance companies, none of which are located in San Diego. The insurance companies will in turn raise rates all over the country not just in SD.

[Duck]

I just got back, and while away we stayed with a friend who works for a big commercial contractor. He said it would be a huge boom for the construction and service related industries in San Diego. The insurance companies and their reinsurers are going to take the big hit initially although they typicaly boom a year or two after a disaster because they raise premiums across the board not just in the area affected.

I hate to think about this stimulating the economy because I feel horrible for those who lost homes, but the world keeps spinning….

[Duck]

I just got back, and while away we stayed with a friend who works for a big commercial contractor. He said it would be a huge boom for the construction and service related industries in San Diego. The insurance companies and their reinsurers are going to take the big hit initially although they typicaly boom a year or two after a disaster because they raise premiums across the board not just in the area affected.

I hate to think about this stimulating the economy because I feel horrible for those who lost homes, but the world keeps spinning….

[Duck]

I just got back, and while away we stayed with a friend who works for a big commercial contractor. He said it would be a huge boom for the construction and service related industries in San Diego. The insurance companies and their reinsurers are going to take the big hit initially although they typicaly boom a year or two after a disaster because they raise premiums across the board not just in the area affected.

I hate to think about this stimulating the economy because I feel horrible for those who lost homes, but the world keeps spinning….

[Duck]

Am I a stock bull? Yes for the right stocks. I won’t sell my long term holds for another 20 years unless their fundamentals change. For my trading account I added new money in May and am up 13% after Friday on those picks. Just one loser (CAT). Still scratching my head how SLB loses 11% in one day after great earnings, but I’ll chalk it up to the sell on the news crowd. I never trade during earnings season unless it’s a stock that gets crushed for no reason and their long term propsects are still intact. SLB just got ahead of itself. I own CAT and am getting a little disapointed in them. Their comments really triggered the sell off and they did that exact same thing last qtr. I may buy S&P puts prior to their January announcments because their CEO seems intent on issuing negative economic statements in order to cover his ass over poor results.

Overall, I think the Fed will continue to cut rates, and I was actually happy about the sell off for that reason. If we go to new highs prior to Oct. 31 Bernanke will have no ammo. The market is now pricing in a 1/2 point cut.

I beleive the weak dollar will help multinationals, and I think there are some undervalued tech plays out there (EMC). India and China still have an enormous amount of infrastucture to build out and they have an up and coming class of consumers that had no access to even telephones just 5 years ago. Over the next 10-20 years there will be tens of millions of new consumers for cell phones, computers, TV’s etc. and the dominant tech suppliers should thrive.

For now I’m avoiding banks and homebuilders like the plague although there will be tremendous buys at some point in 2008 once we see who survives. I own small positions of puts on both groups.

Still have quite a bit in cash earning 5%.

So I guess I’m a bull.

[Duck]

Am I a stock bull? Yes for the right stocks. I won’t sell my long term holds for another 20 years unless their fundamentals change. For my trading account I added new money in May and am up 13% after Friday on those picks. Just one loser (CAT). Still scratching my head how SLB loses 11% in one day after great earnings, but I’ll chalk it up to the sell on the news crowd. I never trade during earnings season unless it’s a stock that gets crushed for no reason and their long term propsects are still intact. SLB just got ahead of itself. I own CAT and am getting a little disapointed in them. Their comments really triggered the sell off and they did that exact same thing last qtr. I may buy S&P puts prior to their January announcments because their CEO seems intent on issuing negative economic statements in order to cover his ass over poor results.

Overall, I think the Fed will continue to cut rates, and I was actually happy about the sell off for that reason. If we go to new highs prior to Oct. 31 Bernanke will have no ammo. The market is now pricing in a 1/2 point cut.

I beleive the weak dollar will help multinationals, and I think there are some undervalued tech plays out there (EMC). India and China still have an enormous amount of infrastucture to build out and they have an up and coming class of consumers that had no access to even telephones just 5 years ago. Over the next 10-20 years there will be tens of millions of new consumers for cell phones, computers, TV’s etc. and the dominant tech suppliers should thrive.

For now I’m avoiding banks and homebuilders like the plague although there will be tremendous buys at some point in 2008 once we see who survives. I own small positions of puts on both groups.

Still have quite a bit in cash earning 5%.

So I guess I’m a bull.

[Duck]

After a quick look, all North County coastal zips (Cardiff to Carlsbad) show YOY price increases even though sales were lower and August/September were the big credit crunch months. While monthly median prices are not the end-all be-all gauge it seems odd that every single one saw increases in this environment.

Oceanside as well as that other coastal city near LaJolla, Santee, showed price declines and heavy sales declines. Seems like there is a big divergence in areas where subprime loans were the prevailing choice of purchases and re-fi’s.

[Duck]

After a quick look, all North County coastal zips (Cardiff to Carlsbad) show YOY price increases even though sales were lower and August/September were the big credit crunch months. While monthly median prices are not the end-all be-all gauge it seems odd that every single one saw increases in this environment.

Oceanside as well as that other coastal city near LaJolla, Santee, showed price declines and heavy sales declines. Seems like there is a big divergence in areas where subprime loans were the prevailing choice of purchases and re-fi’s.

[Duck]

Norv Turner is proof of the Peter Principle. You keep getting promoted until you reach a position at which you will fail. In most cases you get one shot at failing, but somehow he has gotten three.

The other crazy thing about the hire is that I believe AJ Smith had both coordinators installed before he hired Turner. In fact because Marty wanted one of his relatives considered is the biggest reason they fired him. Instead, AJ went for that “proven winner” Ted Cottrell. Most coaches hire their assistants (can you imagine a GM telling Parcells who to hire), but AJ Smith has such a big ego he did it all himself.

[Duck]

Neeta,

I have experience with hard money lending and the #1 rule for an investor is to diversify among lenders and among properties. Don’t put one lump sum into a deal. Over time you are going to end up with some foreclosures (which can take 12-24 months to cure) so you need a lender that can navigate that process as quickly and efficiently as possible. Have them show you how they’ve done with the properties they’ve had to foreclose on. If they say they don’t have any foreclosures, they aren’t telling you the truth. Also I just quickly glanced at their website and it said you get a notarized promissory note, but I didn’t see anything about a trust deed on the underlying property. you eed that and it needs to be recorded.

BTW there are tons of these guys in California and you can do better than 12%. Another nice investment is “factoring” which is where the lender/investor lends money based on accounts receivable for businesses. The loan is secured by the company’s assets and you can get 15-18%, but again you need someone with a proven track record of 20+ years in the business IMO.

[Duck]

I wouldn’t call it a big deal. This is like a pimple on the butt of an elephant in the banking world. Netbank is a publicly traded company (on the Pinksheets) with a market cap under $4 million. A local community bank in Podunk, Iowa would be worth more than that.

[Author]

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