[Duck]

Those last numbers (down about 7% YOY) seems about right.

If you look at the historical prices for San Diego (using the Case/Schiller index), you can make a case that the bottom will be in 2009 or perhaps not until 2012 using a “normal appreciation” of 6% from when the market was fairly valued. The problem is determining at what point the index was fairly priced. Was it 1995? 1998? 2002? I know the market doesn’t go up or down gradually, but if we get 2 more years of 7% declines, the market would be what I consider fairly valued for a 10 year period.

BTW, I thought San Diego was cheap in 2000 and overpriced by 2004 without benefit of any statistics.

[Duck]

That’s a short sale. 100% financing on a $715K purchase was the bad purchase. Looks like low to mid 600’s is the going price for that kind of property in that area. Those folks overpaid for it to be sure.

The property isn’t pending because the bank hasn’t yet approved the accepted offer.

[Duck]

That’s a short sale. 100% financing on a $715K purchase was the bad purchase. Looks like low to mid 600’s is the going price for that kind of property in that area. Those folks overpaid for it to be sure.

The property isn’t pending because the bank hasn’t yet approved the accepted offer.

[Duck]

Easy to become a broker. Everyone should do it. Takes about 20 hours and you can save $100k when u sell a decent place.

No brainer.

[Duck]

Easy to become a broker. Everyone should do it. Takes about 20 hours and you can save $100k when u sell a decent place.

No brainer.

[Duck]

The OFHEO numbers just came out and they have San Diego down about 2%. Sacramento was down about 4%.

http://www.ofheo.gov/media/pdf/1q07hpi.pdf

[Duck]

The OFHEO numbers just came out and they have San Diego down about 2%. Sacramento was down about 4%.

http://www.ofheo.gov/media/pdf/1q07hpi.pdf

[Duck]

I think it’s because people bought lower priced homes than in the prior year. Just a guess.

[Duck]

I think it’s because people bought lower priced homes than in the prior year. Just a guess.

[Duck]

If it’s down 6% that makes it overpriced now? Or did that make it overpriced last year?

Some areas of San Diego county (subprime areas and areas with too much new construction) are taking a much harder hit than 6%. Some areas are seeing sales activity and prices on the rise compared to 2006. Wide sweeping statements like calling a bottom in late Summer 2008 (not sure exactly where that will be the bottom, but I suppose you have it nailed to a particular 2 block area) is just stupid. RE cycles take years to work themselves out.

http://www.late-fall-2018-at-3pm.com

[Duck]

If it’s down 6% that makes it overpriced now? Or did that make it overpriced last year?

Some areas of San Diego county (subprime areas and areas with too much new construction) are taking a much harder hit than 6%. Some areas are seeing sales activity and prices on the rise compared to 2006. Wide sweeping statements like calling a bottom in late Summer 2008 (not sure exactly where that will be the bottom, but I suppose you have it nailed to a particular 2 block area) is just stupid. RE cycles take years to work themselves out.

http://www.late-fall-2018-at-3pm.com

[Duck]

As you point out there is a huge surplus of money out there looking for a home (it’s mostly foreign where interest rates stink) and US corporate debt is so cheap now that private deals and buybacks make sense. Maybe it’s a new bubble but I’m on board. I love bubbles.

One last thing. Talk to anyone who does business in India or China. Compare to 15-20 years ago. It’s like night and day.

Discuss.

[Duck]

As you point out there is a huge surplus of money out there looking for a home (it’s mostly foreign where interest rates stink) and US corporate debt is so cheap now that private deals and buybacks make sense. Maybe it’s a new bubble but I’m on board. I love bubbles.

One last thing. Talk to anyone who does business in India or China. Compare to 15-20 years ago. It’s like night and day.

Discuss.

[Duck]

You can’t rely on monthly medians to form a trend. Oh nevermind (saracasm noted)

[Duck]

You can’t rely on monthly medians to form a trend. Oh nevermind (saracasm noted)

[Author]

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