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cr
ParticipantIt doesn’t stop. Liberal or Conservative, Democrat or Republican, they’re all self-serving. Or at least enough of them are that the decent ones are completely overshadowed.
Even though our system is not officially two-party, it is so dominated by the pissing contests between them that progress becomes the victim, at the expense of the taxpayers.
What’s good for our country is irrelevant to these people; it’s only about advancing the elephant or donkey. In their efforts to discredit each other they both end up standing for nothing.
ParticipantI’m in the 818 area code and last night I saw a house going for $815k in Sun Valley. I looked it up on Zillow and the last sale was 12-2005 for $800k.
I think this summer we will start to see “motivated sellers” selling for a loss. Sure that’s one house, but it’s also the low season of sales. When summer rolls around I think we agree there will be more listings, and many will be desperate.
Highdesertrenter, to answer your question, I view those areas similar to Palmdale, and San Bernadino/Riverside, etc. Bedroom communities that have been overdeveloped simply because they are an “hour from LA.” I think prices will plummet there due to overbuilding. I remember seeing hundreds of homes, new and still being built in Adelanto no more than a year ago.
March 8, 2007 at 12:47 PM in reply to: The Prognostication Station – A Chance to go on the Record! #47144ParticipantCall me näive, ignorant or just plain dumb, but I honestly think prices will drop an average of at least 10% annually for the next 4-5 years. I think the end of ’07 will be the start of a major decline that will cause people to no longer view housing a short term viable investment. Maybe in 2-3 years the decline will slow, but I think it will pick up again after that, until we are at 2002-2003 levels.
Prices in many areas have doubled, and some have tripled. Nothing will sustain that, except of course incomes tripling. When I see houses in absolute ghetto outskirts of LA asking $500k, I know something is wrong.
I can’t even guess about the stock market, and I think that says it. I think housing will continue to hurt it, but I think people will again look to it as an alternative to RE investing, as the RE speculators take their money out of homes. People are emotional short term.
“In the long term we’re all dead.”
ParticipantI live 15 minutes from Downtown (without traffic of course) and the only reason I would ever live there is if I actually worked in downtown.
I know two couples (no kids) who just bought down there, but they work about 20 minutes away. I think the novelty of living there that attracted them. The prices are not much better than an average home right now.
I say let them build all they want. It can only serve to speed up the correction. It will be a while before Downtown is the “5th AVE of LA,” and I agree there are more “big backers”, but I think most of them would rather find a place for their family, which downtown is not.
Everyone says there is no room to build in LA as support for maintaining high prices, but they always find a way. Lofts are an example of that. I tend to think they will be sitting on excess inventory in a few years, and maybe then I’d consider one.
ParticipantAgreed on both accounts. As we’ve seen on here month-to-month is somewhat insignificant in the long run.
On the other hand if new home sales were up this month, and existing were down, we’d probably hear more on the former.
LA_Renter,
I’m a renter in the valley, and there does seem to be fewer houses listed in the last few months. Any thoughts on where prices will go this summer?
ParticipantComing back to what?
Where it was 2-3 years ago? I don’t think anyone here can make a case for that.
Back to reality? That’s more likely.
As prices drop, some (probably less informed) will think they are getting a better deal, believing those who claim the worst is over.
There are people on the sidelines, but buyers are not going to come out of the woodwork in mass groves.
Those that are buying now, will most likely see the value decline from the purchase price, which should cause others to wait, and lower prices even more.
ParticipantThere is also this on about Existing Homes sales notching up last month though…
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2007-02-27-existing-jan_x.htm
“Home sales rebounded in January, reaching the highest level in seven months, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday”
The NAR, surprise, surprise…though they do say next month could be down a little.
Of course I would expect them to proclaim a minimal increase and ignore a whopping 16.6% decrease.
February 28, 2007 at 12:48 PM in reply to: Is it just me or has the troll quotient ratcheted up recently? #46513ParticipantI think it proves how much of it has been a mindset of “you can’t go wrong with real estate.”
People were brainwashed to think their home would continue to double in value. So when they can’t afford the HELOC to buy their yellow H2 and exotic vacationss, they just sell and reap the profits from 3-5 more years of appreciation.
As a renter I look forward to the reversal where these same people start to believe you can’t make any money on their home and prices come back to earth.
ParticipantI’m still convinced this is David Lereah or one of his NAR cronies spewing biased propaganda using upsupported claims in the form of “facts,” ignoring the truth that Home Prices are simply overpriced.
You haven’t rained on anyone’s parade, you’ve simply come and made unsubstantiated claims that everything said here is wrong.
Spoken like a true Realtor™:
“But would I suggest taking on a fixed rate mortgage right now and buying a house you planned to live in for some time? Absolutely.
Is that because more double digit inflation (what it takes to fill a bubble) is expected or because you’ve got some hot listings?
I’m just curious.
ParticipantMy favorite lines (of BS):
“We are now well into the contraction period and so far we have not had any major, significant spillover effects on the American economy from the contraction in housing,” he said.
“…well into the contraction period…”
Based on WHAT?“…[no] major, significant spillover effects…”
Right, like Subprime lenders going down daily, housing starts declining, mortgage company layoffs, or sales down at National Hardware retailers. (info from Home Channel News – Lowes down 11.5%, Depot down 28%)
He was a politcal tool as Chairman, he’s a political tool in retirement.
ParticipantI don’t think any of said it’s the end of the world, except maybe in the Global Warming thread; going strong at 155 posts and counting.
But I do have one question for you DesperateBuyer: if homes are a steal today, how is a devaluing dollar going to allow anyone to buy at all in the next several years? Afterall, that’s what drives prices, right?
David Lereah, is that you?
ParticipantLots of reasons:
Because most people don’t make 200K/year.
As more and more people default, the feel-good-era of “buy a house and rake in the dough” will start to reverse, and people will more apprehensive to buy.
We’re just starting to see the downside of the no credit, no money, no problem lending practices.
I don’t see how the retiring baby boomer generation can do anything but worsen the downturn. There will be a disproportionate amount of people on Medicare, and social security, who CAN’T afford million dollar homes to retire in. If anything, the smart ones will cash in now on their equity, rent or downgrade to something smaller and live of the gains for the rest of their lives.
I venture to say most retirees don’t buy a more expensive home to retire in.
Add to that weak dollar that will likely necessitate higher rates to attract foreign investments.
My speculation? This drop will be harder and faster than the 80’s or 90’s. To put a number out there, 10-15% this year, and that much in 2008.
Incomes are WAY below what is required to afford an “average” house.
ParticipantLongest post ever?
I apologize if this has already been mentioned but National Geographic had a special on the poles shifting as a cause of “Global Warming.”
Here is some info from NASA on it-
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2003/29dec_magneticfield.htm
If Democrats take the White House in ’08 who will Gore blame then?
ParticipantThe thing that sickens me is there are generally probably two scenarios, and both involve lying:
1. Uninformed people were led to believe they could refinance with an IO or ARM, and just sell it in 3 years when their payment doubles and equity has tripled again.
2. Deceptive people mis-state their incomes and equity to afford more house than they could pay for.
I really don’t feel that sorry for these people. They should take the time to learn what they are getting into. Our society has this growing “it’s not my fault attitude” and assumes less and less responsibilty for their actions. Sure, there are some people who legitimately just lost it, but most saw their equity as a “free” ride into high society where yellow hummers abound.
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