The Prognostication Station – A Chance to go on the Record!

[admin]

Come one, come all, and test your skill at predicting the future. I have created this thread as a place to post specific predictions for the next year about housing, the economy, the Iraq War, terrorism, or whatever else you have in mind. As time passes we will see who was right, wrong, close, or just plain stupid. I’ll start:

“The median detached home price in San Diego will drop 5% during the next 6 months.”

[Anonymous]

Okay, I’ll take the bait.

Over the course of ’07, the median price of a resale home in San Diego will drop 7-8%.

Over the course of ’07, the S&P will drop 15-20%.

[PerryChase]

Yes, SD median will go down 7-8% in 2007.

In the next couple of years, housing will begin to implode. Iraq will devolve into full civil war and American troops will retreat. The Taliban will continue to come back to life and Karzai will be overthrown (probably by America) to be replaced by another figurehead president.

Those events will seal W’s fate as one of the worse presidents in US history.

I’m not hoping for those things to happen but life will be what it will be. It’s not being negative but realistic considering all the facts we have today.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

I predict that I will be booed out of this arena for not being as negative as most of the people in here, and thinking that our future is relatively bright after a few hiccups

I predict the stock market will find a short term low by approx mid april, then rally up sharply, then have a sharp decline beginning in about Aug-sept time frame. This decline will in turn set up another buy in Nov of this year.

Housing will decline this year basis the median in OC by less than 5%, SD I will say the same.

I also predict that most people trying to time the low in RE will get it wrong, and be sitting on the sidelines in 08 watching prices go away from them again because they did not drop as much as they thought. This will happen in late 08 which is when I think the housing low will be made.

Roubini will vanish faster than Houdini for being wrong over and over again, but he will not get a haircut and clean up.

I also predict that poway will club somebody over the head once again in a blog for not agreeing with her doomsday views

Gold will not go well into the thousands during this price cycle (the next 3 years).

Predicting is impossible, but those are my best guesses.

[PerryChase]

Love her or hate her, powayseller has been right so far. She’s one of the first ones to write about the liar loans and to predict the implosion of the subprime lenders. She also predicted the new lending guidelines we are now hearing about in the MSM.

Roubini is an academic at NYU. He’s not selling anything but his advice. Wall Street economists all have something to sell.

Wall Street or industry economists are always optimistic in a circumspect way. They’d say something like “I expect real estate prices to turn around in 2008 ahead of the elections. But changes in the mortgage business may affect the ability of some buyers to enter the market. If a family wants to own a house they need to start saving for a down-payment today. A good down-payment will assure that they get into the house their want to raise their kids.”

Human nature is such that we never want to hear the bad news. We’d rather get the wishy-washy talk.

Personally, I admire the people who go out on a limb give it to us like it is.

[Anonymous]

Powayseller:

Please grace us with your wisdom one last time and grant us your insight into the coming twelve months.

[poorgradstudent]

S&P 500 will end year up 5-7% from starting point
NASDAQ will end year up 2-4%

Housing will continue to fall throughout 2007, NAR will keep calling false bottoms.

[hipmatt]

I predict that CNBC and the rest of the drive by media will have 24/7 commentary from analyst, after fund manager, after ceo, after journalist, etc about how housing has bottomed, inflation is low, sales will be up in 07, the US economy is fundamentally strong, and we will find out in late 07 or early 08 that none of these is true.

I predict that Americans will still not get the fact that our fragile economic situation has been fueled by cheap and easy credit, the printing of large amounts of money, and huge bubbles in housing that have allowed people to use their home equity as a source of spending funds. These events have made markets look good, but only temporarily, and it will eventually revert to normal if not lower than it should be.

I predict a 40-50% reduction in RE prices in SD and 50-60% in the IE from summer 05 prices in 2010.

[recordsclerk]

5-10% percent annually until finally reaching late 2002, early 2003 prices. This will be for any area resale home. New homes purchased in 2002/2003 may have been contracted 3-12 months earlier and therefore may not reflect actual pricing on purchase date. That’s why new downtown condos were selling for a 20% profit after 3 months from original purchase date during 2004.
Predicted 3000 sq ft(newer)home prices after decline:
Carmel Valley $650,000 (with small lot/6500sqft)
Carmel Valley $750,000 (with larger lot/10000+sqft)
Chula Vista $500,000-$600,000
Escondido $400,000-$500,000
San Marcos $400,000-$500,000
Valley Center $400,000-$600,000 (depending on lot/acres)

[cr]

Call me näive, ignorant or just plain dumb, but I honestly think prices will drop an average of at least 10% annually for the next 4-5 years. I think the end of ’07 will be the start of a major decline that will cause people to no longer view housing a short term viable investment. Maybe in 2-3 years the decline will slow, but I think it will pick up again after that, until we are at 2002-2003 levels.

Prices in many areas have doubled, and some have tripled. Nothing will sustain that, except of course incomes tripling. When I see houses in absolute ghetto outskirts of LA asking $500k, I know something is wrong.

I can’t even guess about the stock market, and I think that says it. I think housing will continue to hurt it, but I think people will again look to it as an alternative to RE investing, as the RE speculators take their money out of homes. People are emotional short term.

“In the long term we’re all dead.”

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

My bout with tonight’s insomnia pushes me to do a drive by hit on this thread. With this state of mind I tend to be a permabull – just shooting off optimism after another.

In my mind, the safest stock to hide your money now from the excitability of high volatility would be in agricultural commodity stock called ADM (Archer Daniel Midland). They’re the biggest wheat and corn warehouse processors in these vast lands of America. Their future game plan is to corner the market on ethanol fuels which others might suggest as being copy-cat to Brazil’s huge success on biofuels. Yeah, highly optimistic vision. 100% proof pure alcohol based on switchgrass, maybe agave?, and corn. I feel drunk (or just really sleepy) typing this.

ADM stock would do well in a recession, methinks. To anyone who gets swayed, I am just a plain Stepford wife who looks at a tiny crystal ball bead. Caveat emptor.

[latesummer2008]

22% Santa Monica Price Drop in jut 21 months. Zillowed for a few minutes and came up with some interesting data about the WESTSIDE of LA. Check out this URL

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

This summer is going to be verrrry interesting once this “perfect storm” of bloated inventory, exploding arms, REOs, MSM fear,and buyers stalemate gets rolling.

[Anonymous]

Let’s make this a little more lively:

I predict that the DJIA will drop by over 400 points tomorrow, March 14th.

[latesummer2008]

1000 points by the end of the month……Sub Prime Implosion creeping up through the mortgage market food chain. “Perfect Storm” gonna smack down the RE market here in So Cal.

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[cashman]

Man, I sure hope so. I’m getting impatient waiting for prices to decline. Every week I check zip realty for my watched neighborhoods, and every week the prices don’t seem to budge. This has been going on for months. The same thing has been happening in the stock market until just recently. I hope the market correction is finally underway. I believe that’s necessary to accelerate housing prices on the downside. I’ll stick my neck out and predict that when the dust settles, the Dow will be at 9400, and housing will be down 35 percent on average in SoCal. The housing figures can be skewed by interest rates, so if rates go under 5 percent again for a 30 yr. fixed, then all bets are off. In that case, us renters on the sideliines may be renting for a long time to come.

[Author]

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