[Coronita]

Spend it!

It will be worth much less a year from now!

 

That would be the typical American thing to do :(.. Spend whatever money we have left over.

 

Anyway, my advice is that it's basically $20k. Put it into a index fund. Anything less won't keep up with inflation, and if you have only $20k to invest freely, it's probably not enough to buy a basket of individual stocks. If you just bought 1 stock, you'd be assuming a lot of risk unless you don't mind potentially losing a chunk of it. If you have less than $100k working cash, you really shouldn't be buying individual stocks imho.

 

[Coronita]

…and you know what? Pretty soon some members here are going to start griping about how they missed the stock market swing just like they’ve been griping about how expensive homes are 🙂 🙂

There no point in fighting the market. It is what it is. If you think the financial markets are crazy here, look at what the chinese and indian stock market have been doing. The chinese market has nearly doubled in the in the past couple of months. That’s what I call a house of cards that can easily topple.

Anyway, you’ll see a pattern of retailers emerge. Those retailers that cater to low income folks (such as walmart) will probably have rougher days ahead. Also, home improvement will probably have rough days ahead…Because frankly, folks in the low income will probably get hit hardest with this inflation and espectially with the simple home-as-a-piggybank evaporates. Those retailers that cater to high income folks will probably have great earnings (Sak, Nordstrom, Tiffany’s etc).

[Coronita]

FLU, Again you are debating yourself. The decline isnt starting in CV. It started 18 months ago. Last year prices declined quite significantly between Winter and Spring. This year prices in Late Spring are flat from prices in the Winter. This wasnt the case last year. There probably arent enough data points for a real solid statisical analysis but that is what I am seeing along the NC coast. Once he get into August, demand should slow down and prices will suffer. I have never said anything different. BTW, under $700K there are 3 active lstings and 4 pendings

 

I think I was smoking crack when I was replying to you yesterday. I've reread what you said and see your point 🙂 Sorry about that. 

[Coronita]

Also, recall my posting about folks being on crack…Well, here’s another one @Crest that was a short sale. I believe it’s still available (although I could be wrong)….

http://sandiego.houserebate.com/search/homeview.asp?id=1630935&p3=-1&ix=59

[Coronita]

FLU, I'm not commenting on the attached market because I really dont follow it all that much. I focus on the SFR. CV is defintely overbuilt with condos relative to toher coastal areas. Beleive it or not, the same size townhome is as or even more expensive in Encinitas than it is in CV. Regrading pricing, you just agreed with me. I said prices have flattened and should creep down little by little. Read my posts again.

 

Palacio IS a SFH development near the 5/56 interchange. And it's seen it's fair share of big misses. Also Sausalito is SFH too. Take a look at those peak prices and compare that to current Sasalito listings.

 

I'm pointing out that the decline is starting in CV, starting first with the less desirable locations and developments in SFH and also all attached homes….

 

Speaking of which, I was visiting a friend today at Crest in Carmel Valley. Thought I'd share two pictures that I thought was interesting. (Folks, pleae don't crack open the wine for this..I’m sure the sign is more of a marketing/hype to pump up interest at this point because rarely are real FC so blatantly advertised.)

[img_assist|nid=3409|title=crest1|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=350][img_assist|nid=3410|title=crest2|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=350]

[Coronita]

Other SD Realtor here. Funny you mention Crest at Del Mar. Had a listing appointment TODAY with an owner there. She bought back in 2004. She paid 495k and has the 3/2.5 floorplan, I think around 1271 sq feet or something like that. I showed her the chronology of what has happened there. By mid 2005 prices for her floorplan had shot up to the mid to higher 500's. Then in 2006 they started coming down FAST. The last sale of her floorplan was 10/06 and it closed at 460k! She was still thinking she could get mid 500's.

 

First I'm fat and lazy, not SD-Realtor. Second, I think your potential client had a 2 bedroom, not three. There is no 3/2.5 1271sqft at Crest. The mid 500ks sound consistent with what 2005 would be. But truthfully, I didn't follow anything smaller than 3/2, so I don't remember.

[Coronita]

Just ran a quick report on CV ZIP (92130) for the last 4 days. 1 New Listing 2 Fell out of escrow 8 Went into escrow 3 closed escrow Does that look like a weak market to anyone? It looks pretty hott to moi!

 

sdrealtor, I don't have access to get real sales history since I'm not an agent. But do me a favor.

 

Please search for sales history on all Crest at Del Mar Townhomes in 92130 since 2004. The address should be 124XX 125XX , 126XX, El Camino Real on 3 bedroom places.

 

There's basically three floor plans: 3bd/2.5bath 1533, 3/2.5 1564, and 3bd/3bath 1584.

The 1533 and 1564 sqft plan sold at peak between $620k-$640k (depending on upgrades).

The 1584sqft plan saw $660k-$70k if i remember.

 

Current sales history are as follow:

 

12559 EL CAMINO REAL E

92130

571,000

3

3

1584

360.48

1998

2/13/2007

12611 EL CAMINO REAL E

92130

575,000

3

2.5

1564

367.65

1998

1/18/2007

12545 EL CAMINO REAL F

92130

605,000

3

3

1584

381.94

1998

3/27/2007

Nothing wrong with this complex. It's actually quite nice imho. Just it appears it's softening. Also, it didn't help that around that place Pell Place went up, Carmel Pointe and the Heights converted.

 

Also pull up sales history for Palacio. Those home have fallen too if i recall.

 

..I have not seen a great hemoraging in SFH in Torrey Hills (yet). Some people overpaid possibly at Sausalito (I recall 1-2 folks paid over $800k for these homes in 2005).

Also, note: I’m not one of these folks who are disgruntled either way. I bought here in 92130 in 2004. And you know what I don’t care if my home falls 20-30%+ because I can afford it and it satisfies my material needs. Yes, I would love for a sucker to offer $1.3million for my place, but I don’t think anyone can deny that prices are flatlined here and attached homes/and some sfh in crappy locations have started to weaken. I can say this because even as current owner, I go to about every open house in the TH area when I can.

[Coronita]

sdrealtor,

5357 Carmel Knolls IS right in the heart of CV! Don't think that you can just make everyone ignore it by putting the spotlight on the Pacific Highlands Ranch listing. Huntington Heights (where 5357 Carmel Knolls is) is right in the heart of CV, your basic Pardee development built in 1995 and right around the corner from Sonoma. A $200K loss is pretty significant, wouldn't you say?

I'm also aware of two very painful short sales over the last few months in CV, one in Lexington and the other in Barratt's Paso Fino up on Del Mar Ridge. Plus an ugly bank sale on Durango in Del Mar Heights.

This is just beginning to scratch the surface. Sure, there are still some sales happening in CV, but it is incredibly slow compared to what it was. CV is showing definite signs of increasing weakness. It will be interesting to watch what happens as we move later into the year.

New_Renter

 

I live here. I can definitely say, prices are flat, and showing signs of weakness. Less prime locations are showing more weakness, particularly townhomes. If you search on Crest At Del Mar off of El Camino for example, peak for a 1533 sqft 3b/3b place was about $620k. Recent closings have been around $570-$580k. At first, I thought it might be due to location of these units. But some of these units location is fine.

[Coronita]

13506 Moonflower Meadows Trail

bought 10/05 for $848K
currently on market for $620K – $670K

Looks like $228K plus sales costs – a potential $250K loss.

 
Oh come on guys. Have you actually taken a look at what this POS looks like? 

 http://bp0.blogger.com/_hui4LGmGP_g/Rj54yAUAXeI/AAAAAAAAATU/N16u8lKQvNY/s1600-h/1.jpg

 This home must have been purchased by someone who didn't even take a look at this place OR was BLIND. It's not physically appealing EVEN AT 600k. $800k for this 2000sqft POS???? Now, if you really want to see homes that lost value in Carmel Valley, do a search on Palacio…Big speculation, crappy homes in crappy location (borders a golf course and right below the 56 interchange…)

 

[Coronita]

This development is such a POS. I can’t believe people actually buy there. It’s in the middle of nowhere.

[Coronita]

"The bottom line is if you can afford the home, buy it, else move somewhere else or lower your expectations." Financially, I am having my best year ever. What does $250,000 annual income get you nowadays? A crackerbox in Del Sur? A hovel in la Jolla? No thanks. How about I ignore your bottom line and continue to sit on the sidelines until prices normalize? Sure the temptation is there to jump in. But I prefer to overcome my sheeple urges and rent a sh**hole in Kensington for $1,900 a month. Meanwhile I am surrounded by million dollar spanish style homes, the mayor for a neighbor, and many disgruntled homeowners around me, who wish they were not a slave to their mortgage payment. By the way, I drive a Prius to save on gas and drive a little cleaner, and I like to hit Kobey's on the weekend. Move somewhere else? Lower my expectations? I don't think so. I enjoy the Piggington way of thinking. A bunch of Chicken Littles, you say? Hardly. Yes, I own a home too. And I let my tenants cover my expenses and then some. Patience and common sense is a virtue when it comes to the housing market. Show me a Hummer in the driveway, and I'll show you a house in pre-foreclosure. Nuff said.

 

Is that all you make? Imagine that…A $250k household living slums. The attrocity!!!Call in the welfare reform!! I'm just kidding…..I know what you mean. I don't understand why people that work for me drive nicer cars than me but at the same time complain they can't afford a home….Duh! One thing though…Don't tell me you're saving money by driving a Prius…Saving the environment, yes…Saving money…I don't think your gas savings going to cover the premium you paid for the first generation toy over say a honda civic that gets 30mpg. I'm sure you're not getting 60mpg that toyota claims, but closer to 40-45 in real world.

[Coronita]

I notice a "pattern" about the posters at Piggington.

1. Those who are knowledgeable about real estate. These people generally assert that there will be a major price correction. And this correction will be slow, so patience is the key. Most importantly, these people base their outlook on their knowledge & understanding. 2. Those who don't know much about real estate or are still in the process of learning more about RE. These people base their outlook on their "FEELING" (which is to be expected, if you don't have the knowledge, all you have is your GUT FEELING). Sorry to say this, Alex_angel belongs to the latter group. Knowledge is power ! Keep studying 🙂

 

Actually, I've noticed quite a few "patterns" here.

 

1. Some folks who are knowledgeable about real estate. These folks usually tell what they are seeing now, with data to back it up. Some who make educated guesses into the future.

 

2. Some folks who seem like disgruntled folks that band behind people type #1 like sheep, probably because they are pissed off at the affordability of homes and  want to hear things that's along the line of their frustration. 

3. Variants of type #2 that act like type #1's…These folks typically post 1-2 or maybe 3 homes that appear to have lost 100-200k in value, pop open the wine, celebrate about the idiot buyer who now is going to lose his shirt, only to be corrected by a type #1 person that looks up the MLS listing/etc and quote the actual number(s) and/or condition of sale.

4. Variants of type #2 that attack contrarian opinions that "express things might not be that as a 40-50% correction," and pin labels on people that make these opinions like "dumb buyer at peak prices that are disillusioned that they aren't going to get their a**es handed to him". "people that are dumb buying homes at such prices because it doesn't make sense.", when in reality some(not all) of these folks don't really need to worry about things if their primary home declines 40-50% because (1) they can afford the primary home (2) don't view the primary home as an "investment", but instead satisfy some material feeling that he/she may possess (3) actually makes decent financial decisions elsewhere to satisfy such material posessions.

5. Variants of #2 who can't afford homes because these spend their hard earn money on other crap and/or who drive nicer cars than their boss ( I know a few of these folks).

 

5. People that really are disillusioned into thinking that home prices aren't going to fall at all, and really are in a state of denial.

6. People who don't like to here negative things about they home that they just bought and will say anything to make themselves feel better.

 

7. Idiots like me who

a)like to read what people #1 post

b)find everyone else entertaining

c)speak whatever the hell on my mind with no data to back anything up, often act like #2-#6

d)frankly don't really care if real-estate falls 20-50% because there's no point in dwelling on when it happens, and because we're busy spending time looking for other investments to make their money grow while real estate is suppose to fall in the next 2-5 years.

e)hoping that both real estate prices will fall AND mortgage rates rise sharp and fast to double digits (10-13%) to effectively lock out a good portion of potential first home buyers during this downturn so that they can be my potential tenants for homes that I'll buy during this period.

For example,

Currently: 30year fixed @6% with 20% down on an $800k = $3,837.12/month

Ideally, I hope this home would fall to $500k, but at the same time a 30year fixed loan would sharply rise to 12% or

$3300/month.

..effectively still making homes unattainable for enough people so that they can be my renter. 

 

[Coronita]

The average person in america is pretty stupid. They want to make a quick buck and have no problem when things are going good. They spend 4 dollars for every 1 dollar they earn. They buy all sorts of crap on layaway. Of course if things don’t go their way, they bitch and whine that it’s not there fault, it’s someone else. Then they blame others for the mess that they are in. Congressfolks are either equally stupid (having no financial knowledge) or are incredibly smart and sleep with big corporations to advance their own self interest.

In the end, the minority of the responsible people have to bear the brunt of everyone else’s issues.

Get use to it…Bailout is going to happen at the expense of the minority of people that are responsible. It’s not going ot save home prices, but it’s going to happen.

[Coronita]

The defense budget is not going to shrink considerably any time soon. In fact Defense is one of the most stable industries in San Diego (and the US) today, but it is not nearly as big it was in the cold war days. It shrunk considerable in the early 90s due to the end of the cold war and it was simply way oversized and everyone agreed on that. Don't think Clinton taking office had anything to do with the shrinking defense budget, sounds like Rush Limbaugh propoganda.

 

Wait and see. I think the biggest problem is how much we're spending on the Iraq War. It's not going to continue, and the Gov is going to switch to addressing the other(domestic) issues we now have . And I wasn't attacking Clinton. It's just my opinion that it was a shift in dollars from what was important to the Gov at that time. Gov is going to try to address this housing loan issue and going to try a bailout. It's not going to help everyone, but just a small percentage enough so that politicians can say "they did something for the average joe"…. It's not going be a big topic before elections because that would risk polarizing voters and politicians like debating over more "important" issues like abortion rights, gay marriages, creationism versus evolution. But it will be probably something the Gov attempts to fix first after the elections. 

 

[Coronita]

I’m not complaining. Markets are irrational. Actually, you want to make a quick buck, buy a lot of july/august put options on Yahoo.

See it today? Typical Buy on Rumor, Sell on news.
This MSFT merger rumor I doubt will happen.

[Author]

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