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CoronitaParticipantHousing prices may or may NOT follow the percentage of inflation, even in a healthy market. There are many factors that cause housing to go up when times are good and inflation is only one of them. I've read quite a few posts since I started reading this board where many a poster automatically figures in inflation when trying to determine where a house should presently be priced. I'm not saying that they're absolutely wrong…..it's just my opinion that they are. If "X" house was selling for $500k in 2001 and housing returns to 2001 levels, my opinion is that "X" house will most likely return to a price of $500k……NOT $500k plus the cost of inflation for the years between 2001-2008. Reality has no rules and regulations when it comes to housing bubbles bursting and it IS and will continue to BE a buyers market for a long time. There is just way too much inventory and it's going to get a lot larger and there's going to be a shortage of good, qualified buyers with down payments and the desire to buy all of these properties unless they're severely discounted.
I'm also curious if this time around, the dollar's continued tumble will mean relative to other currencies. During the last RE bubble burst, did we see the dollar tank in similar percentages to what we're currently seeing now. It's looking pretty ugly.
[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]
—– Sour grapes for everyone!
CoronitaParticipantHousing prices may or may NOT follow the percentage of inflation, even in a healthy market. There are many factors that cause housing to go up when times are good and inflation is only one of them. I've read quite a few posts since I started reading this board where many a poster automatically figures in inflation when trying to determine where a house should presently be priced. I'm not saying that they're absolutely wrong…..it's just my opinion that they are. If "X" house was selling for $500k in 2001 and housing returns to 2001 levels, my opinion is that "X" house will most likely return to a price of $500k……NOT $500k plus the cost of inflation for the years between 2001-2008. Reality has no rules and regulations when it comes to housing bubbles bursting and it IS and will continue to BE a buyers market for a long time. There is just way too much inventory and it's going to get a lot larger and there's going to be a shortage of good, qualified buyers with down payments and the desire to buy all of these properties unless they're severely discounted.
I'm also curious if this time around, the dollar's continued tumble will mean relative to other currencies. During the last RE bubble burst, did we see the dollar tank in similar percentages to what we're currently seeing now. It's looking pretty ugly.
[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]
—– Sour grapes for everyone!
CoronitaParticipantHousing prices may or may NOT follow the percentage of inflation, even in a healthy market. There are many factors that cause housing to go up when times are good and inflation is only one of them. I've read quite a few posts since I started reading this board where many a poster automatically figures in inflation when trying to determine where a house should presently be priced. I'm not saying that they're absolutely wrong…..it's just my opinion that they are. If "X" house was selling for $500k in 2001 and housing returns to 2001 levels, my opinion is that "X" house will most likely return to a price of $500k……NOT $500k plus the cost of inflation for the years between 2001-2008. Reality has no rules and regulations when it comes to housing bubbles bursting and it IS and will continue to BE a buyers market for a long time. There is just way too much inventory and it's going to get a lot larger and there's going to be a shortage of good, qualified buyers with down payments and the desire to buy all of these properties unless they're severely discounted.
I'm also curious if this time around, the dollar's continued tumble will mean relative to other currencies. During the last RE bubble burst, did we see the dollar tank in similar percentages to what we're currently seeing now. It's looking pretty ugly.
[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]
—– Sour grapes for everyone!
CoronitaParticipantHousing prices may or may NOT follow the percentage of inflation, even in a healthy market. There are many factors that cause housing to go up when times are good and inflation is only one of them. I've read quite a few posts since I started reading this board where many a poster automatically figures in inflation when trying to determine where a house should presently be priced. I'm not saying that they're absolutely wrong…..it's just my opinion that they are. If "X" house was selling for $500k in 2001 and housing returns to 2001 levels, my opinion is that "X" house will most likely return to a price of $500k……NOT $500k plus the cost of inflation for the years between 2001-2008. Reality has no rules and regulations when it comes to housing bubbles bursting and it IS and will continue to BE a buyers market for a long time. There is just way too much inventory and it's going to get a lot larger and there's going to be a shortage of good, qualified buyers with down payments and the desire to buy all of these properties unless they're severely discounted.
I'm also curious if this time around, the dollar's continued tumble will mean relative to other currencies. During the last RE bubble burst, did we see the dollar tank in similar percentages to what we're currently seeing now. It's looking pretty ugly.
[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]
—– Sour grapes for everyone!
CoronitaParticipantAll of the above, except it would probably require rejuggling of resources to make things liquidable or a small light conforming loan.
Folks that think RE markets here are crazy need to take a look at the insanity in places like Beijing, Shanghai, etc. Bubble appreciation 2-4x in just a few years is even more ridiculous. For example, Sis in law purchased a lakefront home in outskirts of Shanghai at $400KUSD with 20% down. Currently renting to expat VP for current exchange rate converted. $4200USD/month. And she has no capital gains, income tax to pay on this whatsoever. So for example, she could nominally buy a place here with a very light loan that she could probably secure overseas, not factoring in additional USD devaluation relative to the RMB if the RMB does eventually float.
And the other thing, let's say the dollar gets wacked another 20-30% versus the other world currencies. Even those loony buyers north of us will start think RE is cheap here, if there are no actual drop in prices. Add in a price drop, appearance would seem to be even more of a bargain.
That's why I'm starting to think a crashing dollar isn't going to be a good thing in terms of housing affordability for people here dependent on the dollar. Relative to the world, we will just be much poorer. But I'm no economist, so what do I know.
[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]
—– Sour grapes for everyone!
CoronitaParticipantAll of the above, except it would probably require rejuggling of resources to make things liquidable or a small light conforming loan.
Folks that think RE markets here are crazy need to take a look at the insanity in places like Beijing, Shanghai, etc. Bubble appreciation 2-4x in just a few years is even more ridiculous. For example, Sis in law purchased a lakefront home in outskirts of Shanghai at $400KUSD with 20% down. Currently renting to expat VP for current exchange rate converted. $4200USD/month. And she has no capital gains, income tax to pay on this whatsoever. So for example, she could nominally buy a place here with a very light loan that she could probably secure overseas, not factoring in additional USD devaluation relative to the RMB if the RMB does eventually float.
And the other thing, let's say the dollar gets wacked another 20-30% versus the other world currencies. Even those loony buyers north of us will start think RE is cheap here, if there are no actual drop in prices. Add in a price drop, appearance would seem to be even more of a bargain.
That's why I'm starting to think a crashing dollar isn't going to be a good thing in terms of housing affordability for people here dependent on the dollar. Relative to the world, we will just be much poorer. But I'm no economist, so what do I know.
[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]
—– Sour grapes for everyone!
CoronitaParticipantAll of the above, except it would probably require rejuggling of resources to make things liquidable or a small light conforming loan.
Folks that think RE markets here are crazy need to take a look at the insanity in places like Beijing, Shanghai, etc. Bubble appreciation 2-4x in just a few years is even more ridiculous. For example, Sis in law purchased a lakefront home in outskirts of Shanghai at $400KUSD with 20% down. Currently renting to expat VP for current exchange rate converted. $4200USD/month. And she has no capital gains, income tax to pay on this whatsoever. So for example, she could nominally buy a place here with a very light loan that she could probably secure overseas, not factoring in additional USD devaluation relative to the RMB if the RMB does eventually float.
And the other thing, let's say the dollar gets wacked another 20-30% versus the other world currencies. Even those loony buyers north of us will start think RE is cheap here, if there are no actual drop in prices. Add in a price drop, appearance would seem to be even more of a bargain.
That's why I'm starting to think a crashing dollar isn't going to be a good thing in terms of housing affordability for people here dependent on the dollar. Relative to the world, we will just be much poorer. But I'm no economist, so what do I know.
[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]
—– Sour grapes for everyone!
CoronitaParticipantAll of the above, except it would probably require rejuggling of resources to make things liquidable or a small light conforming loan.
Folks that think RE markets here are crazy need to take a look at the insanity in places like Beijing, Shanghai, etc. Bubble appreciation 2-4x in just a few years is even more ridiculous. For example, Sis in law purchased a lakefront home in outskirts of Shanghai at $400KUSD with 20% down. Currently renting to expat VP for current exchange rate converted. $4200USD/month. And she has no capital gains, income tax to pay on this whatsoever. So for example, she could nominally buy a place here with a very light loan that she could probably secure overseas, not factoring in additional USD devaluation relative to the RMB if the RMB does eventually float.
And the other thing, let's say the dollar gets wacked another 20-30% versus the other world currencies. Even those loony buyers north of us will start think RE is cheap here, if there are no actual drop in prices. Add in a price drop, appearance would seem to be even more of a bargain.
That's why I'm starting to think a crashing dollar isn't going to be a good thing in terms of housing affordability for people here dependent on the dollar. Relative to the world, we will just be much poorer. But I'm no economist, so what do I know.
[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]
—– Sour grapes for everyone!
CoronitaParticipantAll of the above, except it would probably require rejuggling of resources to make things liquidable or a small light conforming loan.
Folks that think RE markets here are crazy need to take a look at the insanity in places like Beijing, Shanghai, etc. Bubble appreciation 2-4x in just a few years is even more ridiculous. For example, Sis in law purchased a lakefront home in outskirts of Shanghai at $400KUSD with 20% down. Currently renting to expat VP for current exchange rate converted. $4200USD/month. And she has no capital gains, income tax to pay on this whatsoever. So for example, she could nominally buy a place here with a very light loan that she could probably secure overseas, not factoring in additional USD devaluation relative to the RMB if the RMB does eventually float.
And the other thing, let's say the dollar gets wacked another 20-30% versus the other world currencies. Even those loony buyers north of us will start think RE is cheap here, if there are no actual drop in prices. Add in a price drop, appearance would seem to be even more of a bargain.
That's why I'm starting to think a crashing dollar isn't going to be a good thing in terms of housing affordability for people here dependent on the dollar. Relative to the world, we will just be much poorer. But I'm no economist, so what do I know.
[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]
—– Sour grapes for everyone!
CoronitaParticipantIf a home like this can go for $750k, in inflationary weak dollar we are heading towards, this would be a steal for just about every other foreigner. At that price, even my sis-in-law from PRC would consider buying that, especially once the Yuan floats. I would buy that property without hesitation, my parents would buy that property without hesitation, and about 10 other people I know looking to move up would buy that place without hesitation.
As much as I'd like to dream about something like this in the $800k terms, I can't see it happening in the forseeable future. It will be interesting to see what a continued weakening dollar will do to home prices.
Anyone thinking about a worst case scenario in which to americans, american homes are unattainable but to foreigners it's dirt cheap? Just food for thought.
[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]
—– Sour grapes for everyone!
CoronitaParticipantIf a home like this can go for $750k, in inflationary weak dollar we are heading towards, this would be a steal for just about every other foreigner. At that price, even my sis-in-law from PRC would consider buying that, especially once the Yuan floats. I would buy that property without hesitation, my parents would buy that property without hesitation, and about 10 other people I know looking to move up would buy that place without hesitation.
As much as I'd like to dream about something like this in the $800k terms, I can't see it happening in the forseeable future. It will be interesting to see what a continued weakening dollar will do to home prices.
Anyone thinking about a worst case scenario in which to americans, american homes are unattainable but to foreigners it's dirt cheap? Just food for thought.
[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]
—– Sour grapes for everyone!
CoronitaParticipantIf a home like this can go for $750k, in inflationary weak dollar we are heading towards, this would be a steal for just about every other foreigner. At that price, even my sis-in-law from PRC would consider buying that, especially once the Yuan floats. I would buy that property without hesitation, my parents would buy that property without hesitation, and about 10 other people I know looking to move up would buy that place without hesitation.
As much as I'd like to dream about something like this in the $800k terms, I can't see it happening in the forseeable future. It will be interesting to see what a continued weakening dollar will do to home prices.
Anyone thinking about a worst case scenario in which to americans, american homes are unattainable but to foreigners it's dirt cheap? Just food for thought.
[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]
—– Sour grapes for everyone!
CoronitaParticipantIf a home like this can go for $750k, in inflationary weak dollar we are heading towards, this would be a steal for just about every other foreigner. At that price, even my sis-in-law from PRC would consider buying that, especially once the Yuan floats. I would buy that property without hesitation, my parents would buy that property without hesitation, and about 10 other people I know looking to move up would buy that place without hesitation.
As much as I'd like to dream about something like this in the $800k terms, I can't see it happening in the forseeable future. It will be interesting to see what a continued weakening dollar will do to home prices.
Anyone thinking about a worst case scenario in which to americans, american homes are unattainable but to foreigners it's dirt cheap? Just food for thought.
[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]
—– Sour grapes for everyone!
CoronitaParticipantIf a home like this can go for $750k, in inflationary weak dollar we are heading towards, this would be a steal for just about every other foreigner. At that price, even my sis-in-law from PRC would consider buying that, especially once the Yuan floats. I would buy that property without hesitation, my parents would buy that property without hesitation, and about 10 other people I know looking to move up would buy that place without hesitation.
As much as I'd like to dream about something like this in the $800k terms, I can't see it happening in the forseeable future. It will be interesting to see what a continued weakening dollar will do to home prices.
Anyone thinking about a worst case scenario in which to americans, american homes are unattainable but to foreigners it's dirt cheap? Just food for thought.
[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]
—– Sour grapes for everyone!
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