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CoronitaParticipant[quote=The-Shoveler]Seeing less stuff on store shelves these days.
Not sure if just planned or real shortages.The Age of scarcity.
But I think we are luckier on the west coast so far.
Good time for a remake of Mad Max LOL.[/quote]
The scarcity issue again I think has a lot to do with a heavy dependence of a global economy + supply chain issues due to lockdowns abroad + war abroad.
Now that wages are going up and we have inflation here, it’s making more and more sense to move some of the work back here in the US.
In the long run, it’s a good thing imho.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=gzz]I have a baby but we have a 20lb surplus of mother’s milk in the freezer.
We looked into selling or donating it, goes as much as $5 an oz. The admin and handling work is too much.
We wanted to donate the cord, but the cord bank couldn’t take it because our trip to Cabo disqualified us based on some rare disease in Mexico.[/quote]
You should bank the cord blood for your own kid. I did.
CBR
CoronitaParticipantDude … Have you seen the price of baby formula lately, assuming you can find some?????
I don’t envy anyone how had an infant right now.
..Abbott’s Lab is basically shut down….
Contamination and supply chain issue.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]
Fairness has nothing to do with any of the 3 situations. Any time “fairness” comes into play, then we end up with weird government encroachment like government officials trying to forgive student loan debt….Expecting government to erase bad decisions made by individuals…[/quote]I agree there should be no forgiveness for student loans. Government should stay out of the markets, do you agree with that? But unfortunately that is not what has been happening in the last 13 years. The Fed intentionally blew up a ginormous housing and asset bubble through manipulation of the bond and mortgage markets. That is the opposite of free market. And particularly since Pandemic, any gains that were made in RE or stock values were ill gotten, and are in the course of being reversed. But since they were bogus “gains” to begin with, it is only right that they correct themselves.[/quote]
That’s not what I said. What I said is the government has no business interfering with personal finance that does not impact the country’s financial security. That’s not its job.
Howver, the government’s job is to ensure financial security and stability and use every tool at it’s disposal to achieve that goal , even if it means screwing over some of the little guys in the process if it benefits the stability and the majority of the population
again, you are using social inequity as the primary reason to justify why a housing crash would be a good thing. Social inequity doesn’t apply to your case. You want a personal bailout for your own decisions you didn’t make decades ago because you fucked up…own it.[/quote]
Whoever said I wanted a bailout? You are just pulling stuff out of your ass. And do you really think the bailouts and Fed money printing was done to benefit the majority of the population? You are a fucking idiot if you really believe that. It was done to protect the bankers and Wall St class. That is literally who the Fed members are. And Paulsen who led the bailouts was literally former President of Goldman Sachs. You can’t make this shit up.
Meanwhile, going back through this thread all of my warnings about the Tech collapse were correct and are coming true. In a matter of time the RE collapse will be underway. Now stop blaming and attacking me just because I am pointing out the obvious. I didn’t cause the bubble nor am I responsible for the crash. It was the Fed and USG. Blame them if you don’t like it.[/quote]
Uh, again for some odd reason you have this really weird notion that somehow I care the stock market in general and tech is correcting. If you go back on this thread, none of the reasons why you said tech would correct ended up being the reason why tech is correcting.
Inflation + war. That’s the real reason why markets are going bonkers. And you didn’t predict that anywhere in this thread.
This original thread you started was about remote work ending and the impact it would have on housing. Still waiting…. None of which is relevant or true. In fact, in UTC where supposedly you live, housing situation is worse now that students are “return to campus” and can no longer stay at their parents house taking classes …if you aren’t staying in a house your family owns for free or subsidized cost, chances are you’re paying more for rent now then before because of that or will be when your lease is up.
But it doesn’t matter because from what you posted above in response to AN, you didn’t even take significant advantage of your so called prediction of a downturn in the stock market to materially make a difference in your finances… You don’t put your money where your mouth is and so there’s no surprise you keep missing the boat when a correction does happen …
…and the funny part is you think you’re better and different than those speculators that gamble on crypto
…they lost present value money by gambling on appreciation of a risky asset
…you lost purchasing power due to inflation and rising living costs that you failed to peg for 20 years…Different gambling same result. Backward movement, just at a different rate. But give yourself a pat on the back for whatever you are trying to prove here. I’m not sure how it’s helping you financially move forward, but frankly that’s not my problem nor my concern. That’s your problem that you now own.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]
Fairness has nothing to do with any of the 3 situations. Any time “fairness” comes into play, then we end up with weird government encroachment like government officials trying to forgive student loan debt….Expecting government to erase bad decisions made by individuals…[/quote]I agree there should be no forgiveness for student loans. Government should stay out of the markets, do you agree with that? But unfortunately that is not what has been happening in the last 13 years. The Fed intentionally blew up a ginormous housing and asset bubble through manipulation of the bond and mortgage markets. That is the opposite of free market. And particularly since Pandemic, any gains that were made in RE or stock values were ill gotten, and are in the course of being reversed. But since they were bogus “gains” to begin with, it is only right that they correct themselves.[/quote]
That’s not what I said. What I said is the government has no business interfering with personal finance that does not impact the country’s financial security. That’s not its job.
Howver, the government’s job is to ensure financial security and stability and use every tool at it’s disposal to achieve that goal , even if it means screwing over some of the little guys in the process if it benefits the stability and the majority of the population
again, you are using social inequity as the primary reason to justify why a housing crash would be a good thing. Social inequity doesn’t apply to your case. You want a personal bailout for your own decisions you didn’t make decades ago because you fucked up…own it.[/quote]
Whoever said I wanted a bailout? You are just pulling stuff out of your ass. And do you really think the bailouts and Fed money printing was done to benefit the majority of the population? You are a fucking idiot if you really believe that. It was done to protect the bankers and Wall St class. That is literally who the Fed members are. And Paulsen who led the bailouts was literally former President of Goldman Sachs. You can’t make this shit up.
Meanwhile, going back through this thread all of my warnings about the Tech collapse were correct and are coming true. In a matter of time the RE collapse will be underway. Now stop blaming and attacking me just because I am pointing out the obvious. I didn’t cause the bubble nor am I responsible for the crash. It was the Fed and USG. Blame them if you don’t like it.[/quote]
CoronitaParticipant[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]
Fairness has nothing to do with any of the 3 situations. Any time “fairness” comes into play, then we end up with weird government encroachment like government officials trying to forgive student loan debt….Expecting government to erase bad decisions made by individuals…[/quote]I agree there should be no forgiveness for student loans. Government should stay out of the markets, do you agree with that? But unfortunately that is not what has been happening in the last 13 years. The Fed intentionally blew up a ginormous housing and asset bubble through manipulation of the bond and mortgage markets. That is the opposite of free market. And particularly since Pandemic, any gains that were made in RE or stock values were ill gotten, and are in the course of being reversed. But since they were bogus “gains” to begin with, it is only right that they correct themselves.[/quote]
That’s not what I said. What I said is the government has no business interfering with personal finance that does not impact the country’s financial security. That’s not its job.
Howver, the government’s job is to ensure financial security and stability and use every tool at it’s disposal to achieve that goal , even if it means screwing over some of the little guys in the process if it benefits the stability and the majority of the population
again, you are using social inequity as the primary reason to justify why a housing crash would be a good thing. Social inequity doesn’t apply to your case. You want a personal bailout for your own decisions you didn’t make decades ago because you fucked up…own it.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor] How much satisfaction are you going to get if hardworking families who just wanted homes for their families lose their asses because that is who would get hit hardest?
[/quote]How about all the millions of “Hardworking families” that currently cannot afford a home or the entire generation of young people who have little to no chance of ever buying a home for themselves as a result of the extreme distortion of housing prices and high inflation caused by the Fed. You don’t have a problem with that? All you care about is the “haves”, you could care less about the “have nots”.[/quote]
I care about the greater good which is yet another thing you do not understand. ABout 70% of households own homes in this country. The millions of hardworking families that dont own are for the most part the renter class and never will by choice or by inability to manage money and make good decisions. But thats not everyone, there are the cowards like you also[/quote]
Actually it is less than 70% overall, and closer to 50% in CA. But whatever, we see where you stand. Fuck the other 35 some odd percent. They are too stupid to manage their money, so they don’t deserve to own a house. It has nothing to do with housing prices being unnaturally distorted due to misguided Fed policies.[/quote]
Uh…let’s take a look at your statement
35% of people don’t own a home1. Part of that group are people that cant because they don’t make enough. No one is saying that has anything to do with intelligence.
There are lot of phd’s and non-software engineers that simply make squat relative to a bachelor with software skills.. Or even within tech there’s huge discrepancies between some folks work in some industries and others that work in others (say defense industry or public sector that statistically make a lot less)…But that has more to do with supply and demand of skills/jobs in a particular industry than anything else.
2. Part of that group are people that don’t want too. These are people who aren’t ready to settle down in a given area or are thinking of being somewhere else. That’s fine too
3. Part of that group are also people that waited too long and didn’t plan accordingly. Maybe they thought they could get a better deal and waited and waited and missed the boat. It’s like waiting for a sale of an item, and then the item runs out of stock and no rainchecks are given. People in this category have no one to blame but themselves.
Fairness has nothing to do with any of the 3 situations. Any time “fairness” comes into play, then we end up with weird government encroachment like government officials trying to forgive student loan debt….Expecting government to erase bad decisions made by individuals…
If you look at these 3 categories…bottom line is in your case, you are most likely category 3… You fucked up and missed the boat…own it.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]
Also, most of the people that will get crushed are the novice gamblers of meme stock and crypto that was hoping for that one hit one wonder get rich quick trade….[/quote]
And yes I am rooting for these douchebags to get destroyed. But this goes way beyond just meme stock and crypto investors. It goes heavily into real estate investors, flippers, etc. Same get rich quick douchebags. Funny how you guys are quick to criticize these investors when it comes to crypto, yet you have no issue with those flipping and manipulating RE. Perhaps as a RE investor yourself, you are happy that their actions are raising your net worth. Pretty selfish but typical. Well get ready because the RE investor/flippers are about to get destroyed too, the Tech/Crypto crash is just stage 1.[/quote]
That’s where you and I differ.
I don’t agree with what speculators do to try to get rich quick. But I don’t wish for their demise.
And if they can make money this way, more power to them…I just wouldn’t take that risk. And my only feedback for these people is that they totally underestimate risk. My problem wasn’t that they were taking the risk. My problem was they were taking those risks without understanding those risks and then pretending to be financial geniuses. If they made money, good for them and no jealousy on my part. In fact those that got into crypto early and got out, kudos to them. They were able to take advantage of an opportunity of a lifetime….And that’s great for them. There was this guy in Carlsbad that traded up to a $3million beachfront property, and when asked how he did it he was like “Crypto Baby”. I was like cool man, you got it to work. He understand risk, he cashed out and took advantage of an opportunity, good for him. Other people, not so smart, and while I don’t wish bad on them, they should learn a lesson or two about risk versus reward.It’s the same thing that I rail against your strategy. You have no long term DRIP strategy and you’re doing the exact same thing the crypto one-hit-wonder folks were trying to do, just on the opposite direction, it seems. Not that I hope bad on you. But you’re outcome is very predictable just like the crypto one-hit-one-shot wonders.
Regarding real estate…Also, again, it appears you lack understanding of real estate investing and how different people are playing it and lumping everyone that owns real estate into a “short term flipper/speculator” that you’re hoping will eat shit for some odd reason, and even addressing me as that category which is so far from reality, it’s just weird that you think this way, like it’s lack of comprehension.
As I previously stated numerous times, I have never “flipped” a property short term. In fact, my plan has always been to hold permanently and keep adding and passing them on to my kid. I bought my real estate primarily for cash flow, at ridiculously low prices and paid them all off with money primary from RSU stock grants from tech companies (as a means of spreading risk from the stock market and tech in particular, and cashing in gains into something tangible that was a great price during a period that felt like an opportunity of a lifetime)…forgoing bling purchases such as a nice sports car or unnecessary primary home improvement upgrades, and instead bought a cheap $2000 beater fun car and dealt with sub-standard primary home ammenities, so I could build a lot of cashflow up front, so I wouldn’t need to fully depend on a W2 job for the rest of my life. That was roughly 10 years ago……Real estate appreciation was icing on the cake… Very nice icing, but not something that really matters except recently cashing out some equity and redeploying it for more opportunity, all done risk mitigated such that I could pay off the loan tomorrow if I wanted to….
The only time I sold 1 property was because I didn’t want to deal with the tenant pool down by SDSU and did a 1031 exchange to a property in Mira Mesa that had the same cash flow but much better tenant selection (professional workers versus college students). In hindsight, I should have kept the property near SDSU and continued letting my property manager manage it because had I kept it, the appreciation would have been $150k more than when I sold it and the rent for it would have been about $2000/month now…And that would have been better than trying to find another rental right now in MM.
Second, why do you think we’re manipulating real estate. I’m not big enough to manipulate it. Real estate is a nice asset because it has a utility. People need to live in it. And simple supply/demand dictates it’s price. I have no control that a lot of people need housing here in San Diego, but because a lot of people need housing here in San Diego and people can pay the higher prices, it’s good for both of us. And rental income for free and clear property is an excellent hedge against inflation and a declining stock market, since the cost of inflation is passed on to the tenant. That’s just how it is, from a pure investment perspective….I can raise rents but keep it slightly below market value so that the tenant doesn’t completely get raked over the coals and I benefit from increased disposable investment income, while my costs are fixed….Nothing wrong with that. It’s win win…
Now if someone tries to do a short term flip and it blows up, that’s really too bad. I’m not cheering for it, but if it happens, and I have the opportunity to buy a short sales or REO like I’ve done before, then it is what is.. Better financially for me. But I certainly don’t wish that on people. And frankly, I most buyers aren’t in this category. Most of the buyers competed with in my submarket I was interested in were buying their primary home to live in. Not that rates are higher, more of them won’t qualify, so maybe now I have a shot at some of these properties with cash offers.
Actually people like me who buy and hold indefinitely are contributing to the housing supply problem more so than the flippers. At least with flippers, they will turn inventory over back to the market. People like me who buy and hold indefinitely, are taking inventory off the market permanently and reducing the supply (albeit very small change to supply by me alone).. And unlike stocks, there’s a benefit for holding indefinitely… long term cash flow from rent that adjusts with inflation.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=dz]
The wealthy class were being destroyed in the last crash until the Fed and Paulsen, run by Wall St. Bankers, came to the rescue with endless bailouts and QE under the propaganda of “averting depression” and “too big to fail”. Obviously this is likely to happen again.[/quote]
Please. The wealthy class were hardly being destroyed.
Someone might have “lost $100k”, but that might mean 2% less on their total net worth.
That’s different from someone that loses $50k when their total net worth is say $200k.
And I’m dealing with this at all sorts of levels with friends and family and myself. Everyone is going like whoa as me, “I’m down $100-150k from peak”, but in perspective, it’s like 2-3% of their person’s total net worth..Hardly a big deal or financially devastating for them…
Wealthy people might lose money that in absolutely numbers look large for people that are not at that financial level. But it’s chump change, and those people typically clean house in a downturn because they have a lot more financial reserves to pick up cheaper assets when everyone else that is middle class is just scraping by.
Just look at what’s going on now. Inflation is killing middle class that haven’t secured their housing/transportation/etc costs. Higher rent costs, higher food costs, and now more of these worker bees have to return to work, higher transportation costs…And their wages are not growing nearly as fast…
Richer people can buy a house/property more easily than people that need to take out a loan. Richer people can buy an electric car or chances are aren’t tied to a daily job or have a better job that is more likely to be remote friendly. If mortgage rates rise and even if house prices fall, and other cost of living rises, your average middle class counting on a paycheck is no more prepared to buy property assets, in fact it’s probably harder for them because access to loaned money isn’t as easily available.
Rich people who can switch from cheap credit loans to cash still have no issues. And with rising inflation, they also clean house with rising rent costs as a landlord…
Inflation + tighter borrowing terms = Perfect storm for rich to get richer in the long run while middle class gets left behind scrapping by.
Also, most of the people that will get crushed are the novice gamblers of meme stock and crypto that was hoping for that one hit one wonder get rich quick trade….They will be crushed and wiped out. But they weren’t really in the “rich” class to begin with. It’s not like they had a long term DRIP style investment plan to begin with and spend decades building millions, despite what those of us that have been trying to warn them about…
Those “financial guru” instagram feed I subscribe to for shits and giggles sure have gone silent recently….But they’ll make excellent tenants 🙂
CoronitaParticipantId even say that it’s going to be pretty hard to control inflation. Imho, it seems the primary reason why we have high inflation has a lot more to do with covid + Ukraine war and as a result, the global economy that historically kept prices for good and services lower, is now broken…. The global supply chain was already pretty wacked from covid… Now, we have an even worse supply chain issue from also energy disruptions due to ukraine.
Monetary policy I don’t think will fix that problem and monetary policy wasn’t the original source of high inflation imho. It was the supply chain issue that first happened due to covid and then exacerbated by the ukraine war with now a supply chain issue with energy…
In fact, imho I think by tightening the money supply it’s going to make things a lot worse.
Because while tightening the money supply might shrink and reign in the US economy, I still think we will have persistent higher levels of inflation so long as the global supply chain is wacked and the war persists that wacks the energy supply chain too because simply put those factories and energy supplies aren’t meeting demand due to constraints on the producer side. And so long as supply remains constrained, higher demand side is going to keep prices high.
Take a look at the semiconductor companies for instance. Their earnings could have been better. Its not like there isn’t enough demand for chips, like TSM.. It’s because they can’t produce fast enough, partly due to the broken supply chain and shutdowns. Seems like it would take a lot to cool off that demand.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=deadzone]
If these “hardworking families” over levered themselves to purchase an overpriced house with a mountain of debt, then they took the risk on themselves. But in reality, getting foreclosed on just means they can live rent free for 2+ years, just like the last crash. It’s not the end of the world by any means.[/quote]
I think you suffer from the same thing that previously spdrun (who seems a lot more refined now post-covid, kudos) and bearishgurl(who disappeared). You have an ax to grind from anyone who put the time and energy to make a big purchase, something that you kept justifying for 20+ years was “too expensive” or out of reach for you financially and you now feel really left out, expecially given that you’ve either spent 20+ years paying a landlord and have nothing to show for OR you’re living in a home owned by a family member for little to no cost.
It’s much more convenient to lump anyone that bought under the false idea that they are all financially irresponsible, and you’re looking for big financial calamity to prove your point. You gloss over the majority of homeowners that while not be such a scrooge or penny-pincher do work hard and follow/exercise some sort of financial goal/plan to achieve those goals, and execute on those plans, which takes a lot more effort than sitting on the sideline for the past 20 + years playing sideline financial coach. This is especially true for people that aren’t a bachelor and have a spouse and kid to think about, and what they want, unless they happen to be an un-opinionated that just worships one’s feet and takes anything one says verbatim as the gospel.
Again, rooted in your message is you feel left out and want to be made whole. I’m not worried about all these folks, because imho, majority of these buyers are locked into ridiculous loan rates for 30 years, while lending standards are still pretty tight, which means not the same stated income alt-a liar loans… And this is the 21st century. Many families here have 2 working adults, not one that is confined to domestic duties (and in some cases in my spheres the husband is the one that is the deadbeat and stays at home.) Dual income families, that provide a safety cushion in case there is 1 job loss.. Meanwhile, when it’s all said and done, I’m pretty confident you won’t materially change and you’ll still not be a homeowner even if we have a correction. You’ll never take the risk on anything larger than a few shares of stock, and the only way you would be pushed into home ownership is if you have no choice and your spouse gives you an ultimatum. There’s nothing wrong with not wanting to own a house, because it is a big purchase. But just call it for what it is and stop using other reasons for justifying your personal decisions. No different than EconProf trying to claim he moved to Utah because he hates California. Please, he moved because his kids are there.
Bookmarked.
CoronitaParticipantAlso, just playing with a little play money….Bought an additional 888 shares of TSM at 86.10 today…because I’m bored sitting in cash.
CoronitaParticipantSo my RSU vests 50% today..!!!!
Yeah!!! I had to keep my shares anyway for 6months being an insider, unless I quit, but the great part now is my upfront tax bill will be a lot lower heh heh.The way RSU stock grants work for a publicly traded company is that the day RSU stocks are granted you get taxed at ordinary income the total shares * fmv day of grant…then that serves as your cost basis.. So if you sell the RSU at a price above today’s price , that’s taxed as capital gains…and if you sell below today’s price, that counts as a capital loss.
The problem is if you have lots of shares, you can potentially pay a lot of ordinary income taxes on the shares you vested , but if you sell when the price is lower you could end up being limited to the capital loss you can report to offset the ordinary income from the shares…because the IRS limits capital losses to $3000/year before you carry over your losses to the following years.
Despite our earnings being well above projected and or forecast above too, the company stock hasnt moved due to all the concerns… That’s great. So my today’s taxable amount as ordinary income will be low..and when/if I hold them long enough..hopefully by then it will be long term capital gains of 20%….
Thank God I don’t need the money…
Tenants and rent make great inflation adjusted pensions. And suddenly the crypto and meme stock owners are all so quiet..ha ha ha.Now where do I pick up some discounted assets …hmmm….
CoronitaParticipantMan inflation is pretty serious…Good thing tenants are great inflation hedges.
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