[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

There is absolutely nothing wrong with your situation. To just sell your house now to avoid this world ending financial debacle that many are calling for would be more foolish. People in here treat housing like the outcome they predict is 100% guaranteed. They are so sure that they will be able to buy the exact house they want in the exact location they desire, for 50% off. I will say this, I am just as sure they will not be able to do that. Who is to say who is right at this point.

Focus on your job opportunity and enjoy the area. You have already bought it least some off the peak, and it is possible the world will not end in RE. If we only drop another 10% you would be foolish to sell. There are only a few real experts on RE in here, everyone else is just an internet RE expert from reading about what MIGHT happen. So you cannot brag at the next cocktail party about your housing gains, big deal. I just bought a home for quite a bit more than your price, and could care less what happens to its value, I bought it to live in it and enjoy life. You should never buy a home just to make a quick gain on it.

Although it is highly unlikely that we will get into any kind of RE boom in the next few years, it is possible that prices will just drift slowly down like they are now. In that instance, you will be fine. You cannot day trade houses anyway. People in many parts of the country live for long periods being upside down or flat on their house values, and never have a thought about it because it is not an investment.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

Sentiment in the indicators I follow are very bearish, which is not typical of market tops. Typically they are made when sentiment indicators are very bullish. It is for this reason that I think this run is going to continue for a bit. There are other reasons that are more detailed, but I have alluded to them in other posts in here. The collapse of the bond market is the only fly in the ointment right now, and that is a significant influence on stock prices. However, these divergences sometimes carry on for a few months before bringing things down.

I am just beating a dead horse in here, because so many people here just want a tragedy in everything. I will not post anymore on this subject. My conscience is clear because I have tried to educate people in here on some of these things, yet too many people do not want to listen.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

Sentiment in the indicators I follow are very bearish, which is not typical of market tops. Typically they are made when sentiment indicators are very bullish. It is for this reason that I think this run is going to continue for a bit. There are other reasons that are more detailed, but I have alluded to them in other posts in here. The collapse of the bond market is the only fly in the ointment right now, and that is a significant influence on stock prices. However, these divergences sometimes carry on for a few months before bringing things down.

I am just beating a dead horse in here, because so many people here just want a tragedy in everything. I will not post anymore on this subject. My conscience is clear because I have tried to educate people in here on some of these things, yet too many people do not want to listen.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

Why do people that make the median income think they have some divine right to buy a nice home, is that written in stone somewhere? Let’s face it, if that is all the money someone can make, than you cannot expect to live in the more expensive areas. Southern California is an expensive area, and it will still be after the drop, however big it is.

People pursue different careers for different reasons, but if the one you choose only allows the median income, you are going to have to accept what that will bring you in terms of a home.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

Why do people that make the median income think they have some divine right to buy a nice home, is that written in stone somewhere? Let’s face it, if that is all the money someone can make, than you cannot expect to live in the more expensive areas. Southern California is an expensive area, and it will still be after the drop, however big it is.

People pursue different careers for different reasons, but if the one you choose only allows the median income, you are going to have to accept what that will bring you in terms of a home.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

I tulip could not have been more wrong about the stock market, maybe he is a one hit wonder?

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

I tulip could not have been more wrong about the stock market, maybe he is a one hit wonder?

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

LOL on the 50%, I am assuming that was tongue in cheek. I lived there for 20 years and know it very well, prices are down about 10% from the peak, maybe a smidge less. Medians are of no value in small sample sizes.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

LOL on the 50%, I am assuming that was tongue in cheek. I lived there for 20 years and know it very well, prices are down about 10% from the peak, maybe a smidge less. Medians are of no value in small sample sizes.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

Record shorting is as bullish as it gets, be careful with this kind of thing. Low levels of shorts/complacency is what you want for a major top. Huge short postions are typically present at major market lows. I know it confirms your opinion, but that does not make it correct.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

Record shorting is as bullish as it gets, be careful with this kind of thing. Low levels of shorts/complacency is what you want for a major top. Huge short postions are typically present at major market lows. I know it confirms your opinion, but that does not make it correct.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

I certainly agree that one month stats based on 6 sales using a median number for Newport for example, means nothing at all. When I owned my prior home in Newport Coast, I watched that stat swing up and down monthly, at times almost 50% up and down. Prices are declining there but very slowly. If history repeats itself, the nicer areas will get hit less than the less desirable areas. Those hoping for a Del Mar fire sale are going to be disappointed, other than maybe a few properties here and there. They all won’t drop en masse a huge percentage. For facts, just examine the last drop and what areas went down the most.

The opinion that it will be different this time, may be right, but it is not based on what has historically occurred.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

I certainly agree that one month stats based on 6 sales using a median number for Newport for example, means nothing at all. When I owned my prior home in Newport Coast, I watched that stat swing up and down monthly, at times almost 50% up and down. Prices are declining there but very slowly. If history repeats itself, the nicer areas will get hit less than the less desirable areas. Those hoping for a Del Mar fire sale are going to be disappointed, other than maybe a few properties here and there. They all won’t drop en masse a huge percentage. For facts, just examine the last drop and what areas went down the most.

The opinion that it will be different this time, may be right, but it is not based on what has historically occurred.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

Unless you are buying a unique property and are getting a significant discount, there is no reason to buy right now. I am the buyer Adam referred to that he represented in the Vista area. The place we bought was a unique ranch property with over 5 acres, horse facilities, and an ocean view, at a huge discount to the comps.

There are for sale signs everywhere around here when I drive around back into the city area, so be patient. If I were buying a tract type of home, I would wait for a year at a minimum. I only pulled the trigger due to the uniqueness of our needs, and what we found. I am under no false illusion that the value of my place will not decline.

BTW, with all due respect to Adam, the realtor Christine Clark is an airhead, but has a staff that is very competent that saves the day. She seems to have a very strong local reputation. She babysat my initial viewing of my house trying to sell me on every little feature as if it were the greatest thing in the world. I finally told her during one little chat, that the custom cabinets she was hyping as being so wonderful, would be the first thing I tore out if I bought the place. At that point she finally left me alone.

I do not have kids so I cannot offer any comment about the schools.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

Unless you are buying a unique property and are getting a significant discount, there is no reason to buy right now. I am the buyer Adam referred to that he represented in the Vista area. The place we bought was a unique ranch property with over 5 acres, horse facilities, and an ocean view, at a huge discount to the comps.

There are for sale signs everywhere around here when I drive around back into the city area, so be patient. If I were buying a tract type of home, I would wait for a year at a minimum. I only pulled the trigger due to the uniqueness of our needs, and what we found. I am under no false illusion that the value of my place will not decline.

BTW, with all due respect to Adam, the realtor Christine Clark is an airhead, but has a staff that is very competent that saves the day. She seems to have a very strong local reputation. She babysat my initial viewing of my house trying to sell me on every little feature as if it were the greatest thing in the world. I finally told her during one little chat, that the custom cabinets she was hyping as being so wonderful, would be the first thing I tore out if I bought the place. At that point she finally left me alone.

I do not have kids so I cannot offer any comment about the schools.

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