- This topic has 142 replies, 19 voices, and was last updated 16 years, 10 months ago by
NotCranky.
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May 28, 2007 at 11:40 AM #55272May 28, 2007 at 11:40 AM #55287
latesummer2008
ParticipantThe O.C. leading S.D. in market declines now? What if Los Angeles and San Diego dropped 60%? This is one of three likely scenarios now being predicted. How would Orange County fair?
Some interesting analysis now coming to the forefront.
May 28, 2007 at 9:10 PM #55300PerryChase
ParticipantDoes anyone have a link to that LA Times article?
May 28, 2007 at 9:10 PM #55316ParticipantDoes anyone have a link to that LA Times article?
May 28, 2007 at 9:40 PM #55304patientrenter
Participantperrychase, you can find the table of data for the LA Times article on dataquick, under monthly data, LA Times. I was curious about latesummer08’s implication that there’s a big drop in high-end OC prices, but I didn’t find clear evidence of it yet. There’s a big drop in median prices for selected zip codes, but some other big and expensive zip codes are up (92660 in Newport Beach is up 12%). Also, a closer look at some of the zips with decreases in the median price show that the price per square foot, a more refined indicator, may not be down. For example, 92625 in Corona del Mar had a 24% decrease in median price, but the price per square foot in April 2007 was $1,206, up 7% from the $1,125 per sq ft price for the whole of 2006. (I don’t know what the price per square foot was in just April 2006. If anyone knows how I can get the April 2006 data, let me know.)
Patient renter in OC
May 28, 2007 at 9:40 PM #55320Participantperrychase, you can find the table of data for the LA Times article on dataquick, under monthly data, LA Times. I was curious about latesummer08’s implication that there’s a big drop in high-end OC prices, but I didn’t find clear evidence of it yet. There’s a big drop in median prices for selected zip codes, but some other big and expensive zip codes are up (92660 in Newport Beach is up 12%). Also, a closer look at some of the zips with decreases in the median price show that the price per square foot, a more refined indicator, may not be down. For example, 92625 in Corona del Mar had a 24% decrease in median price, but the price per square foot in April 2007 was $1,206, up 7% from the $1,125 per sq ft price for the whole of 2006. (I don’t know what the price per square foot was in just April 2006. If anyone knows how I can get the April 2006 data, let me know.)
Patient renter in OC
May 29, 2007 at 4:26 AM #55335Participant6 High End Areas, 20-50% Drop in the same Month! I beg to differ, but that is significant. Also volume is dropping. I would bet, YOY (Year over Year) $/sqft dropped significantly also. Why don’t you find those numbers, patientrenter and let us know.
If I was a betting man….
May 29, 2007 at 4:26 AM #55352Participant6 High End Areas, 20-50% Drop in the same Month! I beg to differ, but that is significant. Also volume is dropping. I would bet, YOY (Year over Year) $/sqft dropped significantly also. Why don’t you find those numbers, patientrenter and let us know.
If I was a betting man….
May 29, 2007 at 9:39 AM #55363(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantMonthly zip-code-specific median price is an extremely volatile measure. The monthly numbers with gain/loss of > 20% is not necessarily indicative of the actual price drops.
Anyone have access to a 1-2 year history for these zip codes to get a better picture ?
The fact that there appear to be more negative changes than positive ones is a sign that the prices are dropping, I just wouldn’t get to excited that OC is down 20% … yet.
May 29, 2007 at 9:39 AM #55379ParticipantMonthly zip-code-specific median price is an extremely volatile measure. The monthly numbers with gain/loss of > 20% is not necessarily indicative of the actual price drops.
Anyone have access to a 1-2 year history for these zip codes to get a better picture ?
The fact that there appear to be more negative changes than positive ones is a sign that the prices are dropping, I just wouldn’t get to excited that OC is down 20% … yet.
May 29, 2007 at 11:34 AM #55394DaCounselor
ParticipantCertainly you all are not still debating the veracity of median stats on this site, are you? I thought I noticed an evolution to much more meaningful analysis several months ago. This thread smacks of just another sensationalistic, screaming headline backed up with the oh so reliable….median stats? And one-month median stats at that? And on low volume?
You folks have and would slice and dice threads with this type of flimsy support if the numbers were running the other direction.
May 29, 2007 at 11:34 AM #55410ParticipantCertainly you all are not still debating the veracity of median stats on this site, are you? I thought I noticed an evolution to much more meaningful analysis several months ago. This thread smacks of just another sensationalistic, screaming headline backed up with the oh so reliable….median stats? And one-month median stats at that? And on low volume?
You folks have and would slice and dice threads with this type of flimsy support if the numbers were running the other direction.
May 30, 2007 at 7:10 AM #55485ParticipantPerhaps your worried? I suppose you think the market is going up, Da Counselor?
What is your prediction for this market, and, please state the facts to back it up…
May 30, 2007 at 7:10 AM #55502ParticipantPerhaps your worried? I suppose you think the market is going up, Da Counselor?
What is your prediction for this market, and, please state the facts to back it up…
May 30, 2007 at 8:41 AM #55501Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantChris Johnston
I certainly agree that one month stats based on 6 sales using a median number for Newport for example, means nothing at all. When I owned my prior home in Newport Coast, I watched that stat swing up and down monthly, at times almost 50% up and down. Prices are declining there but very slowly. If history repeats itself, the nicer areas will get hit less than the less desirable areas. Those hoping for a Del Mar fire sale are going to be disappointed, other than maybe a few properties here and there. They all won’t drop en masse a huge percentage. For facts, just examine the last drop and what areas went down the most.
The opinion that it will be different this time, may be right, but it is not based on what has historically occurred.
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