ORANGE COUNTY HIGH END gets WHACKED !!!

[SD Realtor]

radelow, and even ls –

It is frustrating to write the same thing over and over again. Once more, I agree 100% that renting is a much more fiscally correct thing to do. Should I write that 100 times? I guess I need to say it yet again, and again that yes I do tell my clients that renting is a better option then buying.

Is it not possible to fathom that some people buy for other reasons? I don’t understand this reluctance. I don’t read into any of sdr’s postings or my own postings that either of us are bullish on the market at all? Is that what you guys read into the postings? Saying that someone is buying a home in a falling market for various reasons that only pertain to them is not being bullish on the market.

Why do you interpret it in that manner? Saying that there is money on the sidelines and that people buy for other reasons then using housing as an investment is not being bullish.

********

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Both SD Realtor and sdrealtor have posted in the past that they recommend renting in many circumstances. Neither one is bullish on home prices.

In fact, I don’t see too many bullish people on this board.

Some people may confuse others’ insistence on facts rather than sensationalism as being bullish. It is not.

In San Diego prices are off at least 10%, much more for some areas. Add two years of inflation adjustment from the late 2005 peak and that’s about 16% and more in real terms. I suspect there are areas that are off 25% already (e.g. new developments).

As for my opinion … I believe that the current cycle will result in 19-26% decline in SFR resale prices, with another 15-20% due to inflation.
I believe that you will see the bulk of the additional price drops over the years 2007-2008.

Does believing that we have not yet seen 30-50% declines make me a bull ? I think not.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Both SD Realtor and sdrealtor have posted in the past that they recommend renting in many circumstances. Neither one is bullish on home prices.

In fact, I don’t see too many bullish people on this board.

Some people may confuse others’ insistence on facts rather than sensationalism as being bullish. It is not.

In San Diego prices are off at least 10%, much more for some areas. Add two years of inflation adjustment from the late 2005 peak and that’s about 16% and more in real terms. I suspect there are areas that are off 25% already (e.g. new developments).

As for my opinion … I believe that the current cycle will result in 19-26% decline in SFR resale prices, with another 15-20% due to inflation.
I believe that you will see the bulk of the additional price drops over the years 2007-2008.

Does believing that we have not yet seen 30-50% declines make me a bull ? I think not.

[LA_Renter]

I see where the SD realtors are coming from. You all have a front line perspective and share that data. The housing debate tends to be more emotional than other market debates due to the nature of the product. Your talking about our castles here. On one side you do have the perma bulls and now I am seeing a trend of perma bears on the other side. This is another way of saying we have ideologues on both sides. I think that happens due to the nature of the product. The realtors are confirming that yes people are buying in the face of these fundamentals. I get frustrated when I read those post but i don’t doubt that its true. I was recently in Michigan (talk about a housing bust) and there were still exurbs of Detroit holding up just fine. This is nothing out of the ordinary in a housing correction.

Personally what I am watching is the disappearing food chain. The bottom of the market has dried up and it is getting worse. I guess what you see in the more desirable areas as being reported by the realtors is the last vestiges of a pipeline that was once overflowing. If you take out the bottom of the market and combine that with a net out migration of “monied” population then it is safe to say there is not much entering the pipeline right now. That takes time but it will be felt eventually. IMO I think you are going to start seeing this more concretely in the 3rd and 4th qtr of this year. 2008 is going to be a very tough year for all segments of the market.

[LA_Renter]

I see where the SD realtors are coming from. You all have a front line perspective and share that data. The housing debate tends to be more emotional than other market debates due to the nature of the product. Your talking about our castles here. On one side you do have the perma bulls and now I am seeing a trend of perma bears on the other side. This is another way of saying we have ideologues on both sides. I think that happens due to the nature of the product. The realtors are confirming that yes people are buying in the face of these fundamentals. I get frustrated when I read those post but i don’t doubt that its true. I was recently in Michigan (talk about a housing bust) and there were still exurbs of Detroit holding up just fine. This is nothing out of the ordinary in a housing correction.

Personally what I am watching is the disappearing food chain. The bottom of the market has dried up and it is getting worse. I guess what you see in the more desirable areas as being reported by the realtors is the last vestiges of a pipeline that was once overflowing. If you take out the bottom of the market and combine that with a net out migration of “monied” population then it is safe to say there is not much entering the pipeline right now. That takes time but it will be felt eventually. IMO I think you are going to start seeing this more concretely in the 3rd and 4th qtr of this year. 2008 is going to be a very tough year for all segments of the market.

[sdrealtor]

Cyphire
I wouldnt know as none of them are “Californian’s”. They have been in their current homes an average of 20 years or so. The homes they are buying will last the rest of their lives and allow them to enjoy retirement, visits from adult children and eventually grandchildren. The homes are in the North County Coastal area between DM and Carlsbad. Two are walking distance to the beach another is about a mile away with spectacular ocean views on a bit of land. Not McMansions but custom spec homes with many personal choices built into the homes to fit their lifestyle.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Cyphire
I wouldnt know as none of them are “Californian’s”. They have been in their current homes an average of 20 years or so. The homes they are buying will last the rest of their lives and allow them to enjoy retirement, visits from adult children and eventually grandchildren. The homes are in the North County Coastal area between DM and Carlsbad. Two are walking distance to the beach another is about a mile away with spectacular ocean views on a bit of land. Not McMansions but custom spec homes with many personal choices built into the homes to fit their lifestyle.

sdr

[LA_Renter]

“visits from adult children and eventually grandchildren”

That is the casualty of the current California housing market. Those visits will be fewer and farther apart due to those children leaving the state in search of affordable housing. Thats happening everyday.

[LA_Renter]

“visits from adult children and eventually grandchildren”

That is the casualty of the current California housing market. Those visits will be fewer and farther apart due to those children leaving the state in search of affordable housing. Thats happening everyday.

[sdrealtor]

Those children with one exception arent in the state and the parents can send plane tix if they want to see them. The one child in the state came here to pursue his dream career after college but couldnt find his way into it. I introduced him to a couple friends in that field and he got a great job. He’s doing great working for a friend of mine.

[sdrealtor]

Those children with one exception arent in the state and the parents can send plane tix if they want to see them. The one child in the state came here to pursue his dream career after college but couldnt find his way into it. I introduced him to a couple friends in that field and he got a great job. He’s doing great working for a friend of mine.

[DaCounselor]

“Some people may confuse others’ insistence on facts rather than sensationalism as being bullish. It is not.”
____________________

Beautifully said.

It’s also interesting how this thread has migrated away from its original premise and the criticism of the supporting data.

[DaCounselor]

“Some people may confuse others’ insistence on facts rather than sensationalism as being bullish. It is not.”
____________________

Beautifully said.

It’s also interesting how this thread has migrated away from its original premise and the criticism of the supporting data.

[sdrealtor]

Sorry for getting off track. And yes, beautifully said SD R.

[sdrealtor]

Sorry for getting off track. And yes, beautifully said SD R.

[Author]

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