[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

When looking at homes it is amazing when you see an older one that has not been updated in any way and needs a complete overhaul, and then see a deep into seven figures asking price. These are the types of things that make me think prices must fall a good amount. Sometimes when you look at something newer with granite, nice floors, etc.. it least it seems like it has some value. People throw around asking prices of 1 to 2 Million like it is nothing, which blows me away. It does seem that you ought to get something other than just 80 degrees on X-Mas day for that much money.

A realtor yesterday babysat my complete walk through the house I visited, pointing out every little thing trying to sell me. I finally told her when she was pointing out some built ins within the dining area, and discussing how wonderful they were, that I would tear them out. I think she got the point, and stopped coaching me. It did make me feel though that she was desperate to sell the home, she effectively lowered whatever I would offer if anything by over selling.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

Thanks to everyone for their input. SDR – you are right about me in the way I analyze things. I am having a hard time valuing something I looked at today, the value seems very reasonable to me. However, as out of whack as everything is, it is hard to believe that anything is a reasonable deal at the moment.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

Thanks Bugs. I also want an ocean view, so I am asking alot. Do any of these other places have that? I was thinking Bonsall was aways inland? Unfortunately, you see the battle that goes on in my household. I want the ocean view, my wife wants to have our horses on our own property instead of separate like they are currently. It is a tough mix, with the Carpinterias of the world being on the list. However, the prices up there are really high, Diego area is much cheaper. I may just wait for the drop, buy another ocean view place and have the horses be separate again, but I thought I would use this down cycle to check some alternatives out.

Thanks for the input.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

Thanks sdr, great info!!!!!!!!!!!

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

Thanks sdr, just the type of comments I was looking for. Schools do not matter because we do not have any kids. I have done some checking on crime, and itleast by the numbers it is very low. The isolation kind of goes with the territory for ranch property I think, so that is ok because it is not too far off the beaten path. Sounds like it is itleast worth checking into, maybe we wind up in Olivenhain after all. My wife does not like Olivenhain for some reason, she is afraid progress will result in alot of the horse properties being eliminated over time. That has happened to some areas up here in OC.

I am not in a great hurry, but you never know what you will run into.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

I think based on historical cycles that I study that we are likely to see a decent run up after an early year drop, followed by a strong decline in the late summer. This study is not based on any valuation of individual companies. This rally best guess will start somewhere between March first and May 1st. Who knows how accurate that is due to it being a guess projecting forward. We need a drop or sideways move into that time frame, or the model is off.

The market is currently over valued in comparison to the 30 yr bond, which has been a pretty good predictor historically of price swings. As I mentioned long ago in here, and was made fun of, the ten year cycle with years ending in 7 have had some very nasty late summer drops ( just look through a Dow chart in these years and you will see these declines ). I see no reason why that will not happen this year, however I do think it will be from new highs when it happens.

My two cents worth – As I stated before I am a timer so I need to have a plan. It is adjusted according to conditions at the time of the cycle due dates. I agree with Dave that the market is very overbought here. The other thing that is very troubling, is the excessive amount of bullishness in the advisor community. This typically leads to declines.

On CNBC the other day I heard 4 or 5 Dow year end guesstimates and the lowest one was 14,500! That is way too much bullishness for a major launch to start from. We need to shake the tree a bit first, scare out the weak hands, then a better buy spot will set up. Maybe that late summer drop I forecast, will tie into the recession that alot of people in here are expecting this year. In my business it is not important to try and forecast recessions, so I have no idea if we will get one. It would make sense though based on what I just laid out.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

qcomer – ironically I got long the S&P futures on this am’s down opening, but will exit on tomorrows opening. My entry was 1415.25 so it is about 8 points profit on a very short term trade. My short term trading system generates signals in both directions regardless of long term trends. The above comments were more geared towards a longer time horizon of about 6 months.

I have no short positions in any stocks right now. My stock money is 100% in cash in t-bills and has been for about 30 days. The seasonal tendencies tend to have periods where they shift. Generally, January has not been a time for drops, but this has changed in the last 7 yrs or so.

I am concerned about the bond market holding up to support a buy signal in 30 to 60 days. Also, the commercials are heavily short right now. I am hoping for a sharp decline which may not happen, accompanied by a rally in bonds and a shift by the commercials to the long side, before I plow heavily back in on the long side.

If this decline does happen, I will have to see how a few other internal things look at the time to see if it is still a buying opportunity, or the beginning of a larger drop. There are cycles due on both sides this year, so we should have some volatility in both directions.

I will state it out in the open forum here if and when I go in, and then we can watch my celebration or demise, LOL!

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

It is amazing how few people up here think RE prices will do anything but rise. I think the general tone from the OC that I get, is that the correction has about run it’s course. Ironically, the median has not even gone YOY negative yet, so this logic escapes me. However, prices are about 10% off their highs by my research.

I have other business interests that have been involved in some of the Mortgage company sub-leasing activities, so I can confirm that number. I still suspect Ameriquest will put even more space back on the market than they already have. Fortunately for them, LA Fitness is moving their corporate office, taking a bunch of Ameriquest’s (Argent Mortgage) space at Jamboree Center. When you drive around the Irvine/Newport area by the airport, it almost looks like Jurassic Park, with all the cranes you can see on both sides of the 405. There was nowhere near this amount of building in the late 80’s early 90’s. Alot of product is about to hit the street.

A 20% drop from here seems to be almost certain to me, this year should be very interesting. It is amazing the crap in Newport Beach that is out there for sale for close to 2 Million.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

It looks to me like the January seasonal tendency for a decline that has developed in the last 5 to 7 years is taking place. I am shooting for approx end of Feb to establish long positions, for what should be a good up move. This date is a guess right now, just based on a loose projection indicator I have that is generally right, but not precise. It will be more important to watch what develops in the decline, to determine when and if a buy spot is setting up. It has been a very long time since we have had a 10% or more decline, one of the longest times in history. As a result, this year could have some big swings in both directions.

There are certain market internals that have to hold up properly during this decline, for me to be aggressive on the long side. If these do not hold up, I will not buy the dip. Primary among these internals, is the 30 yr bond rates need to resume their uptrend in price, downtrend in rates, that has been in place since July. I will be more than willing to go on the record in here at the time I initiate this position, if anyone is interested. Then I can either be hammered or congratulated as to the accuracy of it later on.

The tone in here seems to have gotten better since I have been out of here, so hopefully we have a constructive environment for exchange again. I did read through that nasty stuff regarding our leader Rich, and hope that has resulted in people being a little more kind to each other. There is no place for something like that in my opinion. He created this forum for everyone who is here, and he is a top notch human being.

I hope everyone had an enjoyable holiday season.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

Greenspan and all other fed chiefs work for the banks, not the public. The Federal Reserve is our banking system, not an elected political office. I do not defend him, because I think he has done harm to our economy overall. However, protecting the banking institutions is his job, not making us happy.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

I left this blog for awhile, only to re-visit and find this! Mr. Young, I have been interested in pink houses in Amarillo for quite some time. Do you have any other pink houses in this price range to look at?

The Liberace foundation must have more in it’s inventory?

I hope all you good folks in here have had some fun in the last few months.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

PW – you have again misquoted me please go to the newsletter and copy and paste out of it into here. As it CLEARLY STATES, not every rally during these years has followed a decline. This is not only annoying, it is beyond what I am willing to stand for.

That is not legal to misquote someone like that. Farewell everyone, I have had enough at this point. You had never even heard of this concept until I mentioned it, now it has happened, and you are telling people what I meant by my articles about it? Has the market rallied this year or not?

Let the market insights come from that little punk anx ( who has the stupidest handle name of anyone here – what a shock ) and has never contributed a postive thing in here since I have been reading.

There will be no further opportunities to misquote me because I will not visit here again.

To the good people here, which is most of you, I wish you all well

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

I think we are about to start going down in the stock market. I have short term sell signals, and we are right at the 2.0 std deviation on a 6 month regression channel on the upside. Whether or not it will be the beginning of a big drop or not I have no idea. However, I will be shorting the S&P on Monday contingent upon certain opening parameters. Then it will depend on the opening as to where the orders are placed.

I am not going to give all of those details out here, but anyone who is inclined to try a short entry, this is a good spot in my opinion.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

This is a mid term congressional election rally, there is no way of disputing that. The premise is that the market will rally for 2 years from a low made this year. It is clearly doing that. The month that it starts is just fine tuning, the basic theory does not require a specific month.

Whether or not the rally will last that long is anyone’s guess, but clearly it has begun. Watch the bonds, if the uptrend breaks there this rally may not go much farther, if it holds the sky is the limit itleast until mid next year.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Heavyd

Thanks for telling everyone what you just did about the housing sector. I told everyone in this forum exactly what you have just described about housing industry stocks a few months ago, the valuations are way too attractive for a short entry. I did not say that I would buy them, just that the ratios were way to attractive for shorts. I like high p/sales ratios, high debt, and declining earnings for short trades. These stocks have none of those even though they have been in a downtrend.

[Author]

Posts