Comments on the Vista area

[sdcellar]

I’m in that 50% as well, so now there’s at least two of us. So far we’re at 100% with a score of 2-0.

Also, I wouldn’t fault Chris (or anyone for that matter) for buying property in the near term. Just because it doesn’t make sense for most people to buy now (at least according to most of us here), doesn’t mean that it’s not right for some depending upon their personal circumstances.

I mean, heck sdr, I think you’re one of the big believers in that premise anyway.

[sdrealtor]

I wouldnt fault him either I just dont think he’s anywhere close to seeing what he needs to see to be ready based upon my very limited knowledge of what makes him tick.

Also, I said 50% won’t not 50% aren’t planning on it. I remember back to when i bought by first place in SD. It was about 1 year from the absolute bottom of the market (all luck by the way) and it was still very very scary. For the price that I paid for a 1300 sq ft townhome, I could have bought a 2800 sq ft home on a 1/2 acre in an area more upscale then I live in now and where incomes were significantly higher (i.e. avg income over $100K). I dont believe it will ever “make sense” to buy here and that it will always take a bit of a leap of faith.

[FutureSDguy]

I think if you’re operating in a market with a lot of emotion, hype, urgency, etc, then yes, you have to use a leap of faith to decide if you want to join in. But in a market that is grounded in fundamentals (supply and demand) and with less funny-money floating around, then I think the decision can be less of faith and more of sound economics. That’s my hope anyway. Dream on, right?

[PerryChase]

I too won’t buy until I see a very compelling reason. I’m leaning towards an old teardown/renovation type house. However, right now, the old houses are selling for the same price, or more than newer ones. Would not make sense to put too much money in an old junker (despite the location, location, location).

I’m not looking for a point where rent equals buy, but I’m looking for a time when I feel the prices have stopped their downward slide.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

Thanks to everyone for their input. SDR – you are right about me in the way I analyze things. I am having a hard time valuing something I looked at today, the value seems very reasonable to me. However, as out of whack as everything is, it is hard to believe that anything is a reasonable deal at the moment.

[sdcellar]

sdr- I should have included a winkey smiley with my comment as I figured that was just your assessment of where Chris might be. I knew you weren’t contradicting yourself.

I am interested in your 50% won’t versus 50% planning perspective though. I guess I’m technically in the planning stage myself, but I truly do intend to buy again. I feel like the only thing that would stop that from happening would be for us to leave San Diego.

Do you have other reasons why you think planners might not become buyers? I mean if it’s the leap thing, I agree with you, but that’s always been the case.

[anxvariety]

Have a friend selling a great 2 acre horse lot on ‘West Lilac and Talesin Way’ in Bonsall. He understands market condition, he’s interested in selling and has some equity… you might be able to work a deal.. the property backs up to Vessels Ranch.

If you drive up West lilac to Talesin Way you should see a sign.. if not, go down Talesein it’s vacant lot on bottom left with stream running through it.

this might be it, i can’t tell for sure

[FutureSDguy]

PC: Yes. I’m finding these older home owners being amazingly greedy.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

When looking at homes it is amazing when you see an older one that has not been updated in any way and needs a complete overhaul, and then see a deep into seven figures asking price. These are the types of things that make me think prices must fall a good amount. Sometimes when you look at something newer with granite, nice floors, etc.. it least it seems like it has some value. People throw around asking prices of 1 to 2 Million like it is nothing, which blows me away. It does seem that you ought to get something other than just 80 degrees on X-Mas day for that much money.

A realtor yesterday babysat my complete walk through the house I visited, pointing out every little thing trying to sell me. I finally told her when she was pointing out some built ins within the dining area, and discussing how wonderful they were, that I would tear them out. I think she got the point, and stopped coaching me. It did make me feel though that she was desperate to sell the home, she effectively lowered whatever I would offer if anything by over selling.

[sdrealtor]

Chris,
Just a word of caution, evaluate the asset on its own merits not the salespersons motivation. A hungry stock broker pushing a stock does not change the underlying value of the asset just as a hungry Realtor doesn’t lower the value of the home.

SDR

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

Good words sdr, I am trying to do that now. It seems so cheap compared to up here, it would be an absolute steal where I live, so I have to cleanse my mind of that baggage. I think no matter how well something is bought right now, it will decline in value over the next few years. That is ok by me as long as I do not overpay at the time of the decision. All I can ever do is make the best decision that I can weighing all the facts at the time of the decision. I do not mind missing by 100k, but I do not want to miss by 500k on a purchase.

Some properties just do not exist in abundance, so even in a huge slump, they may not be for sale even at a lower price. Thanks again to all, this type of exchange is what makes this blog great. I will let everyone know if I do anything, which I may not.

[sdrealtor]

Good Luck Chris! Its my pleasure to help. The most valuable advice I could give you or anyone is that while prices may not actually decline much more, the risk of them climbing rapidly is almost nil (i.e. some downside risk but virtually no upside risk).

In RE you are always making decisions based upon a snapshot of limited information and there is no way to know what will come on the market tommorrow. Take the time to educate yourself on the various areas you think you might like and do your best to find exactly what you want. In the long run, the return will be much higher and more important in terms of happiness with where you are than how much your home is worth.

[sdcellar]

Right. It also seems like right now, if nothing else, absolutely don’t “settle”. If a property doesn’t offer exactly what you need (or you can’t make it that way while preserving the economics of the deal), keep looking.

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