[carlislematthew]

It’s interesting to note, again, one of the lagging aspects of the median and how it will affect these stats.

If the peak was in April 2006, as stated by the article, then we can reasonably assume that prices rose up until that point. So, the current YOY (year on year) median figure is based on a lower starting point then the April peak. So, as we approach April 2007, the YOY figure will be based on a higher and higher value (the peak in April 2006).

So even if prices “level off” (yeah, right) from now until April of 2007, the YOY median will continue to decline as we’ll be measured against the peak, and not some point *before* the peak.

Finally, if you add a dose of realism to this picture and assume that prices will continue to decline, even if just a little, then the declines will be accelerated.

[carlislematthew]

Who is to say what it is “valued” at? Isn’t that up to the market? Apparently he has been unable to sell it at that price, so that makes me think that’s not its true value.

I agree. I’ve seen MANY people say things like, “I sold my house at 5% under market”. Uhhh, no. If that’s what you were *able* to sell your house at, in that momement in time, then that is what the market value was.

[carlislematthew]

hoow desirable is the place to live ? i lived in an apartment complex on camino ruiz.

I actually live about a mile from that place. This is what I have to say about Mira Mesa:

-It varies DRAMATICALLY from block to block. Some blocks are just awful (chain-link fences, barking dogs) and then some are surprisingly nice. However, “surprisingly nice” is about as good as it gets.

-Not sure I’d want to bring kids up here.

-It’s VERY close to work, if you work in Sorrento Valley. I now ride my bike to work along 5 miles of pretty flat roads, along a bike path. I love the commute.

-There are much nicer places out in Rancho Penawhatever for similar money just a few miles away.

[carlislematthew]

Carlislemattew’s post was a typical last word statement. It was a jab directed at bgates personally because carlislematthew has failed to refute bgates arguments.

PD, I’m not interested in refuting his posts, or anyone else’s on this topic. I was simply pointing out the absurdity in bgate’s post. I don’t *have* to address any of his other points in order to address the rediculous nature of the whole discussion.

I would also add that your empty “bgates is right!” sheep-like statements are almost sickening.

[carlislematthew]

I’m done with this thread, so if you’d like to have the last word with another argument-free screed about how Bush is a criminal or I must think real estate is going up or my mother wears combat boots or something, feel free.

Yeah, those “last word” people are awful. I’m happy your “I’m done with this thread” statement wasn’t intended to be a last word. That might have been a hypocritical statement…

[carlislematthew]

The problem in the survey is that most boomers said they would remain in their homes. But how many have their homes paid off? Many took on additional loans…Many boomers thought they could sell their homes to fund their retirement.

You’ve hit the nail on the head. I don’t think you can entirely listen to what people *say* they’re going to do – they often have no clue. I often here that:

a) Boomers are using their home as a retirement piggy bank.
b) Boomers want to retire in-place.

If you want the equity, you must downsize or leave to somewhere cheaper.

[carlislematthew]

So, I don’t think biotech is in that bad of a shape in SD. I’ve been on the fence about going back to work (new mom) but since we just moved back to SD (we left after being laid off from a biotech, of course, and are now back in) thought I’d float my CV out there just to see what would happen. The response has been the strongest in my career, plus every job I’ve interviewed for has been a newly created position.

NO!! This doesn’t fit in with our preconceived ideas that Biotech is going down the tubes! Therefore, your information will be removed from the “data” category and shoved aside into “rogue statistic” category.

OK, now lets please get back into trashing San Diego business prospects so that we can safely go back into assuming housing prices will drop 50%.

[carlislematthew]

I use hostmysite.com.

They’re great if you’re into the development aspect of web hosting, i.e. a SQL Server database and ASP.NET pages and stuff like that. If you don’t know what I’m talking about, then you should probably go with someone else as you’ll be paying for something you won’t use.

However, if you’re into these Microsoft web technologies, then hostmysite.com is pretty awesome. Their service is really good – you can always get someone on the phone very quickly. I’ve been happy with them.

[carlislematthew]

I would argue that inflation is actually much higher than the offical CPI, so wages are indeed falling even if the *real* number is the same.

I agree, especially if you’re referring to the “core” CPI. Sure, energy prices are volatile, but over the last few years the trend has been relentlessly upwards.

[carlislematthew]

PerryChase, my wife and I bike the preserve once or twice a week, but I’m not sure my new road bike would take the beating of the rocks and hills! 🙂

Everyone, thanks for your suggestions!

[carlislematthew]

So John Q Public will not know officially about the turnaround in the market for about 1-2 years after it has happened.

I can’t disagree with any of your analysis and commentary, but I’m not so sure about the particular quote above.

During the last couple of years, the NAR had an incentive to rely on the misleading median figure, as it kept the market and the speculation going as prices looked to be rising still. However, if/when your theory pans out (which I think it will, BTW) then the NAR may suddenly have a revelation! “Wait”, they’ll say, “the median is misleading, and this is why!”.

It will be in their interests to be able to demonstrate to the public that things are picking up and that “it’s a good time to buy”. The media just echos what they say anyway, and so I see no reason why they won’t do so this time. They’re in real-estate after all – they’re the EXPERTS!

I’m wondering if anyone who remembers the last SoCal real estate pop could help out here? I’m assuming that the recovery will probably be similar. What did the NAR say at the time? Was the median still going down while the recovery was actually in the early stages of the recovery?

[carlislematthew]

One thing I’ve noticed about the median price is that the it’s the differences that are lagging. Basically, the reported figures are actually a YEAR ON YEAR increase or decrease in the median. For example, let’s assume you’re looking at a year on year increase of 1% in the median. Realtors and bulls would look at this and say that prices were still going up. However, it could very well be that prices were going up for the first few months, levelled off, and then started going down! Month on month prices would show you this trend in more detail, but they of course can be more volatile.

I suppose this explanation is not about the median as such, as it would apply to anything that was reported as a year on year statistic.

What’s important is the TREND of prices. The year on year figure is very nice for the history books, but is not a predictor of the future.

There are other aspects specific to the median that I know I’m ignoring – I just wanted to say my piece regarding the YOY statistics.

[carlislematthew]

An appraiser will doubtless correct me, but my understanding is that this home CANNOT be a “comp” because the sale is too old. It should expire at some point, and I believe that expiration may be 6 months. Not 100% of the exact details…

Bugs?

[carlislematthew]

Lendingbubbleco – Could you modify your idea to inform people of the mistake BEFORE they buy? ZipRealty has a Review feature now. Praise the home, and knock the price, i.e. this home is gorgeous, the neighborhood is wonderful, but the price is too high for this market.

An honorable endeavor indeed. PS, what did the buyers of your overpriced home say when you recommended they not purchase it due to the impending collapse in prices?

[carlislematthew]

Is anybody shorting retailers?

I’m shopping less. Does that count? 🙂

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