[brian_in_la]

If you really believe the dollar will fall to zero, then I think the only sensible investments are a large ranch in the middle of nowhere, guns, and a large pack of guard dogs. Really…if dollar ever goes to “zero”, your “investment strategy” really is not going to matter much…

If you think the dollar is going to keep losing value (not to zero, but maybe another 50% decline relative to euro, etc.), then invest in companies with earnings in currencies other than dollars, and yes the gold stuff and black stuff are nice too.

I use Vanguard international index funds for my overseas exposure (and I’ve had about 40% of my tiny but growing portfolio overseas since the mid 90’s). Emerging markets actually look extremely frothy to me right now. I don’t know about p/e ratios, but just looking at the share prices, it looks like nasdaq circa ’99.

Interestingly, looking at share prices, the vanguard small cap value index is down 5% for the year, while emerging markets index is up about 40%. If there were a further dramatic dollar decline, I suppose domestic small cap value stocks are exactly the last thing you would want to own (other than a long term bond). So, maybe the market is sharing your perspective…..

[brian_in_la]

If you really believe the dollar will fall to zero, then I think the only sensible investments are a large ranch in the middle of nowhere, guns, and a large pack of guard dogs. Really…if dollar ever goes to “zero”, your “investment strategy” really is not going to matter much…

If you think the dollar is going to keep losing value (not to zero, but maybe another 50% decline relative to euro, etc.), then invest in companies with earnings in currencies other than dollars, and yes the gold stuff and black stuff are nice too.

I use Vanguard international index funds for my overseas exposure (and I’ve had about 40% of my tiny but growing portfolio overseas since the mid 90’s). Emerging markets actually look extremely frothy to me right now. I don’t know about p/e ratios, but just looking at the share prices, it looks like nasdaq circa ’99.

Interestingly, looking at share prices, the vanguard small cap value index is down 5% for the year, while emerging markets index is up about 40%. If there were a further dramatic dollar decline, I suppose domestic small cap value stocks are exactly the last thing you would want to own (other than a long term bond). So, maybe the market is sharing your perspective…..

[brian_in_la]

If you really believe the dollar will fall to zero, then I think the only sensible investments are a large ranch in the middle of nowhere, guns, and a large pack of guard dogs. Really…if dollar ever goes to “zero”, your “investment strategy” really is not going to matter much…

If you think the dollar is going to keep losing value (not to zero, but maybe another 50% decline relative to euro, etc.), then invest in companies with earnings in currencies other than dollars, and yes the gold stuff and black stuff are nice too.

I use Vanguard international index funds for my overseas exposure (and I’ve had about 40% of my tiny but growing portfolio overseas since the mid 90’s). Emerging markets actually look extremely frothy to me right now. I don’t know about p/e ratios, but just looking at the share prices, it looks like nasdaq circa ’99.

Interestingly, looking at share prices, the vanguard small cap value index is down 5% for the year, while emerging markets index is up about 40%. If there were a further dramatic dollar decline, I suppose domestic small cap value stocks are exactly the last thing you would want to own (other than a long term bond). So, maybe the market is sharing your perspective…..

[brian_in_la]

If you really believe the dollar will fall to zero, then I think the only sensible investments are a large ranch in the middle of nowhere, guns, and a large pack of guard dogs. Really…if dollar ever goes to “zero”, your “investment strategy” really is not going to matter much…

If you think the dollar is going to keep losing value (not to zero, but maybe another 50% decline relative to euro, etc.), then invest in companies with earnings in currencies other than dollars, and yes the gold stuff and black stuff are nice too.

I use Vanguard international index funds for my overseas exposure (and I’ve had about 40% of my tiny but growing portfolio overseas since the mid 90’s). Emerging markets actually look extremely frothy to me right now. I don’t know about p/e ratios, but just looking at the share prices, it looks like nasdaq circa ’99.

Interestingly, looking at share prices, the vanguard small cap value index is down 5% for the year, while emerging markets index is up about 40%. If there were a further dramatic dollar decline, I suppose domestic small cap value stocks are exactly the last thing you would want to own (other than a long term bond). So, maybe the market is sharing your perspective…..

[brian_in_la]

If you really believe the dollar will fall to zero, then I think the only sensible investments are a large ranch in the middle of nowhere, guns, and a large pack of guard dogs. Really…if dollar ever goes to “zero”, your “investment strategy” really is not going to matter much…

If you think the dollar is going to keep losing value (not to zero, but maybe another 50% decline relative to euro, etc.), then invest in companies with earnings in currencies other than dollars, and yes the gold stuff and black stuff are nice too.

I use Vanguard international index funds for my overseas exposure (and I’ve had about 40% of my tiny but growing portfolio overseas since the mid 90’s). Emerging markets actually look extremely frothy to me right now. I don’t know about p/e ratios, but just looking at the share prices, it looks like nasdaq circa ’99.

Interestingly, looking at share prices, the vanguard small cap value index is down 5% for the year, while emerging markets index is up about 40%. If there were a further dramatic dollar decline, I suppose domestic small cap value stocks are exactly the last thing you would want to own (other than a long term bond). So, maybe the market is sharing your perspective…..

[brian_in_la]

Some time in 2004 or so, I typed “real estate, bubble, mania, California” or something to that effect into google. From that search, I found piggington, and something about shiller’s irrational exuberance book (the second edition, which had a bunch of stuff on the emerging housing bubble). At the time, I was begining to feel like a tinfoil hat wearing guy talking about the market in LA. Shortly after reading shiller, I decided to just keep my mouth shut and my wallet closed. I was more or less priced out of the market anyway, but anytime I felt any cognitive dissonance, I would reread Shiller or check to see if Rich had written any new posts.

Shiller seems like an extremely conservative guy (not in the political sense, but dispositionally). Even in his book, he would lay out data that just seemed devestating and he would follow it with “but, it is impossible to predict what will happen in the short term in any market,” or some other huge hedge. He just seems like one of those (rare) people who is actually a little uncomfortable about people following his advice. Ironically, it makes me trust him more. I’ll admit I don’t really follow what he is saying about the market these days…it just seems pretty self-evident to everyone how screwed everything is.

[brian_in_la]

Some time in 2004 or so, I typed “real estate, bubble, mania, California” or something to that effect into google. From that search, I found piggington, and something about shiller’s irrational exuberance book (the second edition, which had a bunch of stuff on the emerging housing bubble). At the time, I was begining to feel like a tinfoil hat wearing guy talking about the market in LA. Shortly after reading shiller, I decided to just keep my mouth shut and my wallet closed. I was more or less priced out of the market anyway, but anytime I felt any cognitive dissonance, I would reread Shiller or check to see if Rich had written any new posts.

Shiller seems like an extremely conservative guy (not in the political sense, but dispositionally). Even in his book, he would lay out data that just seemed devestating and he would follow it with “but, it is impossible to predict what will happen in the short term in any market,” or some other huge hedge. He just seems like one of those (rare) people who is actually a little uncomfortable about people following his advice. Ironically, it makes me trust him more. I’ll admit I don’t really follow what he is saying about the market these days…it just seems pretty self-evident to everyone how screwed everything is.

[brian_in_la]

Some time in 2004 or so, I typed “real estate, bubble, mania, California” or something to that effect into google. From that search, I found piggington, and something about shiller’s irrational exuberance book (the second edition, which had a bunch of stuff on the emerging housing bubble). At the time, I was begining to feel like a tinfoil hat wearing guy talking about the market in LA. Shortly after reading shiller, I decided to just keep my mouth shut and my wallet closed. I was more or less priced out of the market anyway, but anytime I felt any cognitive dissonance, I would reread Shiller or check to see if Rich had written any new posts.

Shiller seems like an extremely conservative guy (not in the political sense, but dispositionally). Even in his book, he would lay out data that just seemed devestating and he would follow it with “but, it is impossible to predict what will happen in the short term in any market,” or some other huge hedge. He just seems like one of those (rare) people who is actually a little uncomfortable about people following his advice. Ironically, it makes me trust him more. I’ll admit I don’t really follow what he is saying about the market these days…it just seems pretty self-evident to everyone how screwed everything is.

[brian_in_la]

Some time in 2004 or so, I typed “real estate, bubble, mania, California” or something to that effect into google. From that search, I found piggington, and something about shiller’s irrational exuberance book (the second edition, which had a bunch of stuff on the emerging housing bubble). At the time, I was begining to feel like a tinfoil hat wearing guy talking about the market in LA. Shortly after reading shiller, I decided to just keep my mouth shut and my wallet closed. I was more or less priced out of the market anyway, but anytime I felt any cognitive dissonance, I would reread Shiller or check to see if Rich had written any new posts.

Shiller seems like an extremely conservative guy (not in the political sense, but dispositionally). Even in his book, he would lay out data that just seemed devestating and he would follow it with “but, it is impossible to predict what will happen in the short term in any market,” or some other huge hedge. He just seems like one of those (rare) people who is actually a little uncomfortable about people following his advice. Ironically, it makes me trust him more. I’ll admit I don’t really follow what he is saying about the market these days…it just seems pretty self-evident to everyone how screwed everything is.

[brian_in_la]

Some time in 2004 or so, I typed “real estate, bubble, mania, California” or something to that effect into google. From that search, I found piggington, and something about shiller’s irrational exuberance book (the second edition, which had a bunch of stuff on the emerging housing bubble). At the time, I was begining to feel like a tinfoil hat wearing guy talking about the market in LA. Shortly after reading shiller, I decided to just keep my mouth shut and my wallet closed. I was more or less priced out of the market anyway, but anytime I felt any cognitive dissonance, I would reread Shiller or check to see if Rich had written any new posts.

Shiller seems like an extremely conservative guy (not in the political sense, but dispositionally). Even in his book, he would lay out data that just seemed devestating and he would follow it with “but, it is impossible to predict what will happen in the short term in any market,” or some other huge hedge. He just seems like one of those (rare) people who is actually a little uncomfortable about people following his advice. Ironically, it makes me trust him more. I’ll admit I don’t really follow what he is saying about the market these days…it just seems pretty self-evident to everyone how screwed everything is.

[brian_in_la]

Shiller has been right and also more consistent than just about anyone out there. He was way ahead of the curve in stating there was a housing market bubble and he has always advocated an extremely conservative approach to investing. He’s weird as an economist only because he worries alot about the impact of finacial manias/busts on actual people rather than making a fetish of the market itself. He thinks that there is a role for the government to play in regulating markets so that manias don’t grow out of control and in protecting people from fraud, and yes, bad decisions. But I really don’t see much inconsistency from him. As for being an odd duck, what’s the comparison? He’s smarter than just about anyone on how financial markets actually operate. And, he has also developed some of the most useful data streams on the actual state of the real-estate market. That’s all I really care about.

[brian_in_la]

Shiller has been right and also more consistent than just about anyone out there. He was way ahead of the curve in stating there was a housing market bubble and he has always advocated an extremely conservative approach to investing. He’s weird as an economist only because he worries alot about the impact of finacial manias/busts on actual people rather than making a fetish of the market itself. He thinks that there is a role for the government to play in regulating markets so that manias don’t grow out of control and in protecting people from fraud, and yes, bad decisions. But I really don’t see much inconsistency from him. As for being an odd duck, what’s the comparison? He’s smarter than just about anyone on how financial markets actually operate. And, he has also developed some of the most useful data streams on the actual state of the real-estate market. That’s all I really care about.

[brian_in_la]

Shiller has been right and also more consistent than just about anyone out there. He was way ahead of the curve in stating there was a housing market bubble and he has always advocated an extremely conservative approach to investing. He’s weird as an economist only because he worries alot about the impact of finacial manias/busts on actual people rather than making a fetish of the market itself. He thinks that there is a role for the government to play in regulating markets so that manias don’t grow out of control and in protecting people from fraud, and yes, bad decisions. But I really don’t see much inconsistency from him. As for being an odd duck, what’s the comparison? He’s smarter than just about anyone on how financial markets actually operate. And, he has also developed some of the most useful data streams on the actual state of the real-estate market. That’s all I really care about.

[brian_in_la]

Shiller has been right and also more consistent than just about anyone out there. He was way ahead of the curve in stating there was a housing market bubble and he has always advocated an extremely conservative approach to investing. He’s weird as an economist only because he worries alot about the impact of finacial manias/busts on actual people rather than making a fetish of the market itself. He thinks that there is a role for the government to play in regulating markets so that manias don’t grow out of control and in protecting people from fraud, and yes, bad decisions. But I really don’t see much inconsistency from him. As for being an odd duck, what’s the comparison? He’s smarter than just about anyone on how financial markets actually operate. And, he has also developed some of the most useful data streams on the actual state of the real-estate market. That’s all I really care about.

[brian_in_la]

Shiller has been right and also more consistent than just about anyone out there. He was way ahead of the curve in stating there was a housing market bubble and he has always advocated an extremely conservative approach to investing. He’s weird as an economist only because he worries alot about the impact of finacial manias/busts on actual people rather than making a fetish of the market itself. He thinks that there is a role for the government to play in regulating markets so that manias don’t grow out of control and in protecting people from fraud, and yes, bad decisions. But I really don’t see much inconsistency from him. As for being an odd duck, what’s the comparison? He’s smarter than just about anyone on how financial markets actually operate. And, he has also developed some of the most useful data streams on the actual state of the real-estate market. That’s all I really care about.

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