Three wise men

[4plexowner]

I read somewhere that shiller moderated his public speaking when the options started trading on his housing index (march 2006) – he has some liability from the options trade that he didn’t have before – him being cautious in his public speech to avoid legal liability could also be perceived as pulling punches – its hard to fart in this country anymore without risking a law suit

[brian_in_la]

Some time in 2004 or so, I typed “real estate, bubble, mania, California” or something to that effect into google. From that search, I found piggington, and something about shiller’s irrational exuberance book (the second edition, which had a bunch of stuff on the emerging housing bubble). At the time, I was begining to feel like a tinfoil hat wearing guy talking about the market in LA. Shortly after reading shiller, I decided to just keep my mouth shut and my wallet closed. I was more or less priced out of the market anyway, but anytime I felt any cognitive dissonance, I would reread Shiller or check to see if Rich had written any new posts.

Shiller seems like an extremely conservative guy (not in the political sense, but dispositionally). Even in his book, he would lay out data that just seemed devestating and he would follow it with “but, it is impossible to predict what will happen in the short term in any market,” or some other huge hedge. He just seems like one of those (rare) people who is actually a little uncomfortable about people following his advice. Ironically, it makes me trust him more. I’ll admit I don’t really follow what he is saying about the market these days…it just seems pretty self-evident to everyone how screwed everything is.

[brian_in_la]

Some time in 2004 or so, I typed “real estate, bubble, mania, California” or something to that effect into google. From that search, I found piggington, and something about shiller’s irrational exuberance book (the second edition, which had a bunch of stuff on the emerging housing bubble). At the time, I was begining to feel like a tinfoil hat wearing guy talking about the market in LA. Shortly after reading shiller, I decided to just keep my mouth shut and my wallet closed. I was more or less priced out of the market anyway, but anytime I felt any cognitive dissonance, I would reread Shiller or check to see if Rich had written any new posts.

Shiller seems like an extremely conservative guy (not in the political sense, but dispositionally). Even in his book, he would lay out data that just seemed devestating and he would follow it with “but, it is impossible to predict what will happen in the short term in any market,” or some other huge hedge. He just seems like one of those (rare) people who is actually a little uncomfortable about people following his advice. Ironically, it makes me trust him more. I’ll admit I don’t really follow what he is saying about the market these days…it just seems pretty self-evident to everyone how screwed everything is.

[brian_in_la]

Some time in 2004 or so, I typed “real estate, bubble, mania, California” or something to that effect into google. From that search, I found piggington, and something about shiller’s irrational exuberance book (the second edition, which had a bunch of stuff on the emerging housing bubble). At the time, I was begining to feel like a tinfoil hat wearing guy talking about the market in LA. Shortly after reading shiller, I decided to just keep my mouth shut and my wallet closed. I was more or less priced out of the market anyway, but anytime I felt any cognitive dissonance, I would reread Shiller or check to see if Rich had written any new posts.

Shiller seems like an extremely conservative guy (not in the political sense, but dispositionally). Even in his book, he would lay out data that just seemed devestating and he would follow it with “but, it is impossible to predict what will happen in the short term in any market,” or some other huge hedge. He just seems like one of those (rare) people who is actually a little uncomfortable about people following his advice. Ironically, it makes me trust him more. I’ll admit I don’t really follow what he is saying about the market these days…it just seems pretty self-evident to everyone how screwed everything is.

[brian_in_la]

Some time in 2004 or so, I typed “real estate, bubble, mania, California” or something to that effect into google. From that search, I found piggington, and something about shiller’s irrational exuberance book (the second edition, which had a bunch of stuff on the emerging housing bubble). At the time, I was begining to feel like a tinfoil hat wearing guy talking about the market in LA. Shortly after reading shiller, I decided to just keep my mouth shut and my wallet closed. I was more or less priced out of the market anyway, but anytime I felt any cognitive dissonance, I would reread Shiller or check to see if Rich had written any new posts.

Shiller seems like an extremely conservative guy (not in the political sense, but dispositionally). Even in his book, he would lay out data that just seemed devestating and he would follow it with “but, it is impossible to predict what will happen in the short term in any market,” or some other huge hedge. He just seems like one of those (rare) people who is actually a little uncomfortable about people following his advice. Ironically, it makes me trust him more. I’ll admit I don’t really follow what he is saying about the market these days…it just seems pretty self-evident to everyone how screwed everything is.

[brian_in_la]

Some time in 2004 or so, I typed “real estate, bubble, mania, California” or something to that effect into google. From that search, I found piggington, and something about shiller’s irrational exuberance book (the second edition, which had a bunch of stuff on the emerging housing bubble). At the time, I was begining to feel like a tinfoil hat wearing guy talking about the market in LA. Shortly after reading shiller, I decided to just keep my mouth shut and my wallet closed. I was more or less priced out of the market anyway, but anytime I felt any cognitive dissonance, I would reread Shiller or check to see if Rich had written any new posts.

Shiller seems like an extremely conservative guy (not in the political sense, but dispositionally). Even in his book, he would lay out data that just seemed devestating and he would follow it with “but, it is impossible to predict what will happen in the short term in any market,” or some other huge hedge. He just seems like one of those (rare) people who is actually a little uncomfortable about people following his advice. Ironically, it makes me trust him more. I’ll admit I don’t really follow what he is saying about the market these days…it just seems pretty self-evident to everyone how screwed everything is.

[patientrenter]

4plex, I’ve followed a lot of Shiller’s work (on other subjects too) for several years now, and I agree that something happened around the time those CME housing futures based on his index first were launched.

It could be legal liability related to his role in the index that’s making him generally cautious, and anxious not to say clearly when he thinks house prices need to decline more than the PPT consensus. But I think it’s more than that. In the YouTube debate TG linked to here, Shiller is not so much trying to appear neutral on the outlook for future home prices as he is advocating a bigger role for government action to support house prices. He doesn’t have to do the second to avoid legal liability.

I think what’s happened to Shiller is that he became very tired of proposing, for 20 years, a lot of interesting new types of insurance, with no one picking them up. He probably began to realize that he could end his acadamic career with a pile of ideas, every last one of which was just collecting dust. Now that the housing futures are in place, he realizes he’s inside the tent with all the people who make things happen, and he desperately wants to make sure he’s not kicked out. He has lots of other ideas besides the housing futures that he wants to make happen.

To a significant extent, he’s been co-opted, and what he says has to be taken with big chunks of salt. Pity.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

4plex, I’ve followed a lot of Shiller’s work (on other subjects too) for several years now, and I agree that something happened around the time those CME housing futures based on his index first were launched.

It could be legal liability related to his role in the index that’s making him generally cautious, and anxious not to say clearly when he thinks house prices need to decline more than the PPT consensus. But I think it’s more than that. In the YouTube debate TG linked to here, Shiller is not so much trying to appear neutral on the outlook for future home prices as he is advocating a bigger role for government action to support house prices. He doesn’t have to do the second to avoid legal liability.

I think what’s happened to Shiller is that he became very tired of proposing, for 20 years, a lot of interesting new types of insurance, with no one picking them up. He probably began to realize that he could end his acadamic career with a pile of ideas, every last one of which was just collecting dust. Now that the housing futures are in place, he realizes he’s inside the tent with all the people who make things happen, and he desperately wants to make sure he’s not kicked out. He has lots of other ideas besides the housing futures that he wants to make happen.

To a significant extent, he’s been co-opted, and what he says has to be taken with big chunks of salt. Pity.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

4plex, I’ve followed a lot of Shiller’s work (on other subjects too) for several years now, and I agree that something happened around the time those CME housing futures based on his index first were launched.

It could be legal liability related to his role in the index that’s making him generally cautious, and anxious not to say clearly when he thinks house prices need to decline more than the PPT consensus. But I think it’s more than that. In the YouTube debate TG linked to here, Shiller is not so much trying to appear neutral on the outlook for future home prices as he is advocating a bigger role for government action to support house prices. He doesn’t have to do the second to avoid legal liability.

I think what’s happened to Shiller is that he became very tired of proposing, for 20 years, a lot of interesting new types of insurance, with no one picking them up. He probably began to realize that he could end his acadamic career with a pile of ideas, every last one of which was just collecting dust. Now that the housing futures are in place, he realizes he’s inside the tent with all the people who make things happen, and he desperately wants to make sure he’s not kicked out. He has lots of other ideas besides the housing futures that he wants to make happen.

To a significant extent, he’s been co-opted, and what he says has to be taken with big chunks of salt. Pity.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

4plex, I’ve followed a lot of Shiller’s work (on other subjects too) for several years now, and I agree that something happened around the time those CME housing futures based on his index first were launched.

It could be legal liability related to his role in the index that’s making him generally cautious, and anxious not to say clearly when he thinks house prices need to decline more than the PPT consensus. But I think it’s more than that. In the YouTube debate TG linked to here, Shiller is not so much trying to appear neutral on the outlook for future home prices as he is advocating a bigger role for government action to support house prices. He doesn’t have to do the second to avoid legal liability.

I think what’s happened to Shiller is that he became very tired of proposing, for 20 years, a lot of interesting new types of insurance, with no one picking them up. He probably began to realize that he could end his acadamic career with a pile of ideas, every last one of which was just collecting dust. Now that the housing futures are in place, he realizes he’s inside the tent with all the people who make things happen, and he desperately wants to make sure he’s not kicked out. He has lots of other ideas besides the housing futures that he wants to make happen.

To a significant extent, he’s been co-opted, and what he says has to be taken with big chunks of salt. Pity.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

4plex, I’ve followed a lot of Shiller’s work (on other subjects too) for several years now, and I agree that something happened around the time those CME housing futures based on his index first were launched.

It could be legal liability related to his role in the index that’s making him generally cautious, and anxious not to say clearly when he thinks house prices need to decline more than the PPT consensus. But I think it’s more than that. In the YouTube debate TG linked to here, Shiller is not so much trying to appear neutral on the outlook for future home prices as he is advocating a bigger role for government action to support house prices. He doesn’t have to do the second to avoid legal liability.

I think what’s happened to Shiller is that he became very tired of proposing, for 20 years, a lot of interesting new types of insurance, with no one picking them up. He probably began to realize that he could end his acadamic career with a pile of ideas, every last one of which was just collecting dust. Now that the housing futures are in place, he realizes he’s inside the tent with all the people who make things happen, and he desperately wants to make sure he’s not kicked out. He has lots of other ideas besides the housing futures that he wants to make happen.

To a significant extent, he’s been co-opted, and what he says has to be taken with big chunks of salt. Pity.

Patient renter in OC

[Anonymous]

Interesting and informative video, and yes, I was also surprised/disappointed in how Shiller responded to the interview questions. He did say what he thought, but it was very obvious that he didn’t want to. It was disappointing to watch him.

[Anonymous]

Interesting and informative video, and yes, I was also surprised/disappointed in how Shiller responded to the interview questions. He did say what he thought, but it was very obvious that he didn’t want to. It was disappointing to watch him.

[Anonymous]

Interesting and informative video, and yes, I was also surprised/disappointed in how Shiller responded to the interview questions. He did say what he thought, but it was very obvious that he didn’t want to. It was disappointing to watch him.

[Anonymous]

Interesting and informative video, and yes, I was also surprised/disappointed in how Shiller responded to the interview questions. He did say what he thought, but it was very obvious that he didn’t want to. It was disappointing to watch him.

[Author]

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