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  • December 9, 2007 at 10:51 AM #112429
    Chris Scoreboard Johnston
    Participant

    Shiller may be getting some pressure from the PPT to “can it.” However, he is kind of an odd duck anyway. The Leamer flip flop to me is one of the first signs of capitulation in sentiment. Once even the most bullish of people get bearish, I will be buying additional properties. The question is, who is the current poster child for the bulls?

    December 9, 2007 at 4:45 PM #112397
    brian_in_la
    Participant

    Shiller has been right and also more consistent than just about anyone out there. He was way ahead of the curve in stating there was a housing market bubble and he has always advocated an extremely conservative approach to investing. He’s weird as an economist only because he worries alot about the impact of finacial manias/busts on actual people rather than making a fetish of the market itself. He thinks that there is a role for the government to play in regulating markets so that manias don’t grow out of control and in protecting people from fraud, and yes, bad decisions. But I really don’t see much inconsistency from him. As for being an odd duck, what’s the comparison? He’s smarter than just about anyone on how financial markets actually operate. And, he has also developed some of the most useful data streams on the actual state of the real-estate market. That’s all I really care about.

    December 9, 2007 at 4:45 PM #112515
    brian_in_la
    Participant

    Shiller has been right and also more consistent than just about anyone out there. He was way ahead of the curve in stating there was a housing market bubble and he has always advocated an extremely conservative approach to investing. He’s weird as an economist only because he worries alot about the impact of finacial manias/busts on actual people rather than making a fetish of the market itself. He thinks that there is a role for the government to play in regulating markets so that manias don’t grow out of control and in protecting people from fraud, and yes, bad decisions. But I really don’t see much inconsistency from him. As for being an odd duck, what’s the comparison? He’s smarter than just about anyone on how financial markets actually operate. And, he has also developed some of the most useful data streams on the actual state of the real-estate market. That’s all I really care about.

    December 9, 2007 at 4:45 PM #112557
    brian_in_la
    Participant

    Shiller has been right and also more consistent than just about anyone out there. He was way ahead of the curve in stating there was a housing market bubble and he has always advocated an extremely conservative approach to investing. He’s weird as an economist only because he worries alot about the impact of finacial manias/busts on actual people rather than making a fetish of the market itself. He thinks that there is a role for the government to play in regulating markets so that manias don’t grow out of control and in protecting people from fraud, and yes, bad decisions. But I really don’t see much inconsistency from him. As for being an odd duck, what’s the comparison? He’s smarter than just about anyone on how financial markets actually operate. And, he has also developed some of the most useful data streams on the actual state of the real-estate market. That’s all I really care about.

    December 9, 2007 at 4:45 PM #112567
    brian_in_la
    Participant

    Shiller has been right and also more consistent than just about anyone out there. He was way ahead of the curve in stating there was a housing market bubble and he has always advocated an extremely conservative approach to investing. He’s weird as an economist only because he worries alot about the impact of finacial manias/busts on actual people rather than making a fetish of the market itself. He thinks that there is a role for the government to play in regulating markets so that manias don’t grow out of control and in protecting people from fraud, and yes, bad decisions. But I really don’t see much inconsistency from him. As for being an odd duck, what’s the comparison? He’s smarter than just about anyone on how financial markets actually operate. And, he has also developed some of the most useful data streams on the actual state of the real-estate market. That’s all I really care about.

    December 9, 2007 at 4:45 PM #112598
    brian_in_la
    Participant

    Shiller has been right and also more consistent than just about anyone out there. He was way ahead of the curve in stating there was a housing market bubble and he has always advocated an extremely conservative approach to investing. He’s weird as an economist only because he worries alot about the impact of finacial manias/busts on actual people rather than making a fetish of the market itself. He thinks that there is a role for the government to play in regulating markets so that manias don’t grow out of control and in protecting people from fraud, and yes, bad decisions. But I really don’t see much inconsistency from him. As for being an odd duck, what’s the comparison? He’s smarter than just about anyone on how financial markets actually operate. And, he has also developed some of the most useful data streams on the actual state of the real-estate market. That’s all I really care about.

    December 9, 2007 at 5:01 PM #112402
    patientrenter
    Participant

    brian, I hear you. I agree that Shiller is owed some respect because of all he said when he was a voice in the wilderness, but I think he’s sdefinitely pulling his punches now. I don’t think what he says is exactly the same as what he thinks any more. He’s become an actor in the play, modifying his message to get the results he wants, not just transmitting everything he knows and trusting that someone else will act correctly on it.

    He’s still really smart, and we all owe him one, and he will doubtless produce useful things in the future, but right now he’s hitched his carriage to the PPT horse.

    Patient renter in OC

    December 9, 2007 at 5:01 PM #112521
    patientrenter
    Participant

    brian, I hear you. I agree that Shiller is owed some respect because of all he said when he was a voice in the wilderness, but I think he’s sdefinitely pulling his punches now. I don’t think what he says is exactly the same as what he thinks any more. He’s become an actor in the play, modifying his message to get the results he wants, not just transmitting everything he knows and trusting that someone else will act correctly on it.

    He’s still really smart, and we all owe him one, and he will doubtless produce useful things in the future, but right now he’s hitched his carriage to the PPT horse.

    Patient renter in OC

    December 9, 2007 at 5:01 PM #112562
    patientrenter
    Participant

    brian, I hear you. I agree that Shiller is owed some respect because of all he said when he was a voice in the wilderness, but I think he’s sdefinitely pulling his punches now. I don’t think what he says is exactly the same as what he thinks any more. He’s become an actor in the play, modifying his message to get the results he wants, not just transmitting everything he knows and trusting that someone else will act correctly on it.

    He’s still really smart, and we all owe him one, and he will doubtless produce useful things in the future, but right now he’s hitched his carriage to the PPT horse.

    Patient renter in OC

    December 9, 2007 at 5:01 PM #112572
    patientrenter
    Participant

    brian, I hear you. I agree that Shiller is owed some respect because of all he said when he was a voice in the wilderness, but I think he’s sdefinitely pulling his punches now. I don’t think what he says is exactly the same as what he thinks any more. He’s become an actor in the play, modifying his message to get the results he wants, not just transmitting everything he knows and trusting that someone else will act correctly on it.

    He’s still really smart, and we all owe him one, and he will doubtless produce useful things in the future, but right now he’s hitched his carriage to the PPT horse.

    Patient renter in OC

    December 9, 2007 at 5:01 PM #112603
    patientrenter
    Participant

    brian, I hear you. I agree that Shiller is owed some respect because of all he said when he was a voice in the wilderness, but I think he’s sdefinitely pulling his punches now. I don’t think what he says is exactly the same as what he thinks any more. He’s become an actor in the play, modifying his message to get the results he wants, not just transmitting everything he knows and trusting that someone else will act correctly on it.

    He’s still really smart, and we all owe him one, and he will doubtless produce useful things in the future, but right now he’s hitched his carriage to the PPT horse.

    Patient renter in OC

    December 9, 2007 at 5:32 PM #112420
    4plexowner
    Participant

    I read somewhere that shiller moderated his public speaking when the options started trading on his housing index (march 2006) – he has some liability from the options trade that he didn’t have before – him being cautious in his public speech to avoid legal liability could also be perceived as pulling punches – its hard to fart in this country anymore without risking a law suit

    December 9, 2007 at 5:32 PM #112539
    4plexowner
    Participant

    I read somewhere that shiller moderated his public speaking when the options started trading on his housing index (march 2006) – he has some liability from the options trade that he didn’t have before – him being cautious in his public speech to avoid legal liability could also be perceived as pulling punches – its hard to fart in this country anymore without risking a law suit

    December 9, 2007 at 5:32 PM #112582
    4plexowner
    Participant

    I read somewhere that shiller moderated his public speaking when the options started trading on his housing index (march 2006) – he has some liability from the options trade that he didn’t have before – him being cautious in his public speech to avoid legal liability could also be perceived as pulling punches – its hard to fart in this country anymore without risking a law suit

    December 9, 2007 at 5:32 PM #112589
    4plexowner
    Participant

    I read somewhere that shiller moderated his public speaking when the options started trading on his housing index (march 2006) – he has some liability from the options trade that he didn’t have before – him being cautious in his public speech to avoid legal liability could also be perceived as pulling punches – its hard to fart in this country anymore without risking a law suit

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