Three wise men

[temeculaguy]

Josh Rosner, Ed Leamer and Robert Shiller in a 20 minute bloomberg clip. It’s long but worth it to get their analysis of the future and the Bush/Paulson plan’s effect. Josh and Ed actually do a better job than Shiller. Best quote is from Josh “If you own and have no equity we shouldn’t call you a homeowner, you are a renter with higher maintenance costs.” Or Ed’s take on the rate freeze “If you wan’t to have a regulatory change to prevent this from happening again, pass a law to add 10% to the I.Q. of every American.”

These aren’t rabid bears or bulls, just some straight talk from top notch economists, all three say prices will come down, soon and significant and there’s nothing anyone can do about it.

In the end the moderator apologized because there was no debate, they all agreed, she said they invited the smartest and didn’t realize they would all have the same predictions.

http://www.papereconomy.com/BNN.aspx?id=469

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Why do so many people take economists predictions as gospel? They are notorious for being wrong, and most of the people on this board probably have an equal to or better chance of being correct than anyone else, especially economists. Leamer was one of those people that said the correction would be in real terms, and that nominal prices would not go down much if at all. Now here he is changing his tune. Roubini has predicted a recession since he was born, and still not been proven correct. Yes he had the housing bubble pegged, but so did everyone who participates here.

Do your own research and make your own decisions. Seeking out others opinions that are similar to yours, is not going to enhance your odds of being correct. I seek out opinions that are the opposite of my own, just to see if they contain merit that would warrant re-evaluating my own. It is one of the main reasons I still hang around in here from time to time, reading opinions that are the opposite of mine to see if I have missed anything worth considering.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Why do so many people take economists predictions as gospel? They are notorious for being wrong, and most of the people on this board probably have an equal to or better chance of being correct than anyone else, especially economists. Leamer was one of those people that said the correction would be in real terms, and that nominal prices would not go down much if at all. Now here he is changing his tune. Roubini has predicted a recession since he was born, and still not been proven correct. Yes he had the housing bubble pegged, but so did everyone who participates here.

Do your own research and make your own decisions. Seeking out others opinions that are similar to yours, is not going to enhance your odds of being correct. I seek out opinions that are the opposite of my own, just to see if they contain merit that would warrant re-evaluating my own. It is one of the main reasons I still hang around in here from time to time, reading opinions that are the opposite of mine to see if I have missed anything worth considering.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Why do so many people take economists predictions as gospel? They are notorious for being wrong, and most of the people on this board probably have an equal to or better chance of being correct than anyone else, especially economists. Leamer was one of those people that said the correction would be in real terms, and that nominal prices would not go down much if at all. Now here he is changing his tune. Roubini has predicted a recession since he was born, and still not been proven correct. Yes he had the housing bubble pegged, but so did everyone who participates here.

Do your own research and make your own decisions. Seeking out others opinions that are similar to yours, is not going to enhance your odds of being correct. I seek out opinions that are the opposite of my own, just to see if they contain merit that would warrant re-evaluating my own. It is one of the main reasons I still hang around in here from time to time, reading opinions that are the opposite of mine to see if I have missed anything worth considering.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Why do so many people take economists predictions as gospel? They are notorious for being wrong, and most of the people on this board probably have an equal to or better chance of being correct than anyone else, especially economists. Leamer was one of those people that said the correction would be in real terms, and that nominal prices would not go down much if at all. Now here he is changing his tune. Roubini has predicted a recession since he was born, and still not been proven correct. Yes he had the housing bubble pegged, but so did everyone who participates here.

Do your own research and make your own decisions. Seeking out others opinions that are similar to yours, is not going to enhance your odds of being correct. I seek out opinions that are the opposite of my own, just to see if they contain merit that would warrant re-evaluating my own. It is one of the main reasons I still hang around in here from time to time, reading opinions that are the opposite of mine to see if I have missed anything worth considering.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Why do so many people take economists predictions as gospel? They are notorious for being wrong, and most of the people on this board probably have an equal to or better chance of being correct than anyone else, especially economists. Leamer was one of those people that said the correction would be in real terms, and that nominal prices would not go down much if at all. Now here he is changing his tune. Roubini has predicted a recession since he was born, and still not been proven correct. Yes he had the housing bubble pegged, but so did everyone who participates here.

Do your own research and make your own decisions. Seeking out others opinions that are similar to yours, is not going to enhance your odds of being correct. I seek out opinions that are the opposite of my own, just to see if they contain merit that would warrant re-evaluating my own. It is one of the main reasons I still hang around in here from time to time, reading opinions that are the opposite of mine to see if I have missed anything worth considering.

[barnaby33]

Economists have correctly predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions. Thats some good odds Chris. In America we have a culture of belief in expertise, the more arcane the subject the more we need experts. Since most people, myself included have only a fraction of an inkling of how our economy works, we tend to defer to experts; at least those that share our bias.

Americans need experts so badly that they don’t even bother to check most of the time the actual qualifications of said experts. There are a lot of experts out there, many masquerading as economists.

I want that extra 10% IQ, at least I think I do.
Josh

[barnaby33]

Economists have correctly predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions. Thats some good odds Chris. In America we have a culture of belief in expertise, the more arcane the subject the more we need experts. Since most people, myself included have only a fraction of an inkling of how our economy works, we tend to defer to experts; at least those that share our bias.

Americans need experts so badly that they don’t even bother to check most of the time the actual qualifications of said experts. There are a lot of experts out there, many masquerading as economists.

I want that extra 10% IQ, at least I think I do.
Josh

[barnaby33]

Economists have correctly predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions. Thats some good odds Chris. In America we have a culture of belief in expertise, the more arcane the subject the more we need experts. Since most people, myself included have only a fraction of an inkling of how our economy works, we tend to defer to experts; at least those that share our bias.

Americans need experts so badly that they don’t even bother to check most of the time the actual qualifications of said experts. There are a lot of experts out there, many masquerading as economists.

I want that extra 10% IQ, at least I think I do.
Josh

[barnaby33]

Economists have correctly predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions. Thats some good odds Chris. In America we have a culture of belief in expertise, the more arcane the subject the more we need experts. Since most people, myself included have only a fraction of an inkling of how our economy works, we tend to defer to experts; at least those that share our bias.

Americans need experts so badly that they don’t even bother to check most of the time the actual qualifications of said experts. There are a lot of experts out there, many masquerading as economists.

I want that extra 10% IQ, at least I think I do.
Josh

[barnaby33]

Economists have correctly predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions. Thats some good odds Chris. In America we have a culture of belief in expertise, the more arcane the subject the more we need experts. Since most people, myself included have only a fraction of an inkling of how our economy works, we tend to defer to experts; at least those that share our bias.

Americans need experts so badly that they don’t even bother to check most of the time the actual qualifications of said experts. There are a lot of experts out there, many masquerading as economists.

I want that extra 10% IQ, at least I think I do.
Josh

[temeculaguy]

Even geeks need rock stars. Chris I’m not saying I listen and folow in lockstep to the predictions of all economists but it is a nice temperature guage. The fact that Leamer has changed his tune and that bloomberg couldn’t find anyone to defend housing is indicative of expert sentiment. The market reacts to the experts and the media. I know what the fundamentals are and where they should be but the rest of the people in the country determine the market, not just me. Two years ago my research didn’t jive with market behavior, it took a while for a ship this large to turn around but turn around it did. Now I use economists like these to break things down like the Bush/Paulson plan down for me because I don’t have the time to do it myself. I also watch Inside the NFL, read three or four ESPN colunists and then take what I have seen with my own eyes to for an opinion, yet things happen on Sunday that I didn’t expect nor did any of my sources predict. Yet they watch more film than I do and they can offer insight that I cannot find on my own with a reasonable amount of time that I have for that pursuit. I don’t bet on football but I like the analysis and it improves my experience as a fan. I also am not involved in R/E for a living, I may buy one or two homes, but again I enjoy the analysis.

[temeculaguy]

Even geeks need rock stars. Chris I’m not saying I listen and folow in lockstep to the predictions of all economists but it is a nice temperature guage. The fact that Leamer has changed his tune and that bloomberg couldn’t find anyone to defend housing is indicative of expert sentiment. The market reacts to the experts and the media. I know what the fundamentals are and where they should be but the rest of the people in the country determine the market, not just me. Two years ago my research didn’t jive with market behavior, it took a while for a ship this large to turn around but turn around it did. Now I use economists like these to break things down like the Bush/Paulson plan down for me because I don’t have the time to do it myself. I also watch Inside the NFL, read three or four ESPN colunists and then take what I have seen with my own eyes to for an opinion, yet things happen on Sunday that I didn’t expect nor did any of my sources predict. Yet they watch more film than I do and they can offer insight that I cannot find on my own with a reasonable amount of time that I have for that pursuit. I don’t bet on football but I like the analysis and it improves my experience as a fan. I also am not involved in R/E for a living, I may buy one or two homes, but again I enjoy the analysis.

[temeculaguy]

Even geeks need rock stars. Chris I’m not saying I listen and folow in lockstep to the predictions of all economists but it is a nice temperature guage. The fact that Leamer has changed his tune and that bloomberg couldn’t find anyone to defend housing is indicative of expert sentiment. The market reacts to the experts and the media. I know what the fundamentals are and where they should be but the rest of the people in the country determine the market, not just me. Two years ago my research didn’t jive with market behavior, it took a while for a ship this large to turn around but turn around it did. Now I use economists like these to break things down like the Bush/Paulson plan down for me because I don’t have the time to do it myself. I also watch Inside the NFL, read three or four ESPN colunists and then take what I have seen with my own eyes to for an opinion, yet things happen on Sunday that I didn’t expect nor did any of my sources predict. Yet they watch more film than I do and they can offer insight that I cannot find on my own with a reasonable amount of time that I have for that pursuit. I don’t bet on football but I like the analysis and it improves my experience as a fan. I also am not involved in R/E for a living, I may buy one or two homes, but again I enjoy the analysis.

[temeculaguy]

Even geeks need rock stars. Chris I’m not saying I listen and folow in lockstep to the predictions of all economists but it is a nice temperature guage. The fact that Leamer has changed his tune and that bloomberg couldn’t find anyone to defend housing is indicative of expert sentiment. The market reacts to the experts and the media. I know what the fundamentals are and where they should be but the rest of the people in the country determine the market, not just me. Two years ago my research didn’t jive with market behavior, it took a while for a ship this large to turn around but turn around it did. Now I use economists like these to break things down like the Bush/Paulson plan down for me because I don’t have the time to do it myself. I also watch Inside the NFL, read three or four ESPN colunists and then take what I have seen with my own eyes to for an opinion, yet things happen on Sunday that I didn’t expect nor did any of my sources predict. Yet they watch more film than I do and they can offer insight that I cannot find on my own with a reasonable amount of time that I have for that pursuit. I don’t bet on football but I like the analysis and it improves my experience as a fan. I also am not involved in R/E for a living, I may buy one or two homes, but again I enjoy the analysis.

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