[bigtrouble]

Industry insider perspective, FWIW.

All of the banks have these toxic loans on board. And they all knew that they were crap. But real estate works in cycles, and the first rule is you never leave money on the table during a boom market–you’ll need it when things go bust, as they always do.

But the big banks and mortgage financial giants are not going out of business and will not need a bailout. During down times they just prune their operations, and if its really bad they will prune away everything except an information hub. Because they are not in the home business, they are in the number tracking business. That’s all they need to do, track these records until they reach some sort of decision point (foreclosure, pooling for MBS, etc), capture the releveant information and route it to processors and decision makers. It makes no difference if they are routing info inhouse, or if they are outsourcing. They just track the records.

The only difference with this cycle is that the boom was very big, so the inevitable correction will be big as well. As will the scale of the layoffs and pruning.

[bigtrouble]

Another factor: The elimation of zero down that we are seeing impacts first-time buyers. I paraphrase this from comments at another blog.

40% of FTBs in CA put no down payment; this puts them out of the market–they actually want to buy, and can’t get financing.

So 40% of FTB don’t get loans. Since FTBs made up about 30% of CA purchases in 06, you’ve just eliminated about, what, 12% of prospective buyers on this basis alone.

Ouch!

[bigtrouble]

I know! I don’t care what the foot traffic is telling you. This is a bloodbath in the making, not just because of arms adjusting, but also because of the job losses its going to cause in SoCal.

Not to torture a metaphor, but 2007 will be a bloody year. You can only hide your actual results for 3Qs. You need to have it identified by year-end, your story straight, and action items to tell investors. I think you’ll see a lot of these companies delaying their earnings reports.

[bigtrouble]

With the bloodbath in the subprime market in full swing, can I just say, I told you so?

They can, and will, take care of those payment option-arms on there books this year. It is being directed from the MBS market. What they bought is much much risker than identified.

[bigtrouble]

I can’t believe you got an engineering degree and went into sales. You could be building things, instead, you are selling things that other people build, and kissing ass to get ahead. Sorry. I just hate it when people point to “networking” and “mentoring” as keys to success instead of innovation and just plain excellence. If the economy contracts, so will your salary and future plans, right? If your mentors are looking for jobs too, don’t expect a hand up.

Still you will probably do fine. But I am close to someone who is an executive at a Fortune 3 company. jg is right, you need to leave to get to the next level. If you work your way up, no matter how talented you are, your salary is always based on your last salary. The managerial and executive ranks are filled with people just trying to stay at that level, not progress, and they will steal credit and not promote anybody under them just to maintain an ever decreasing status quo. FWIW.

[bigtrouble]

Make love to their fat wives, of course!

[bigtrouble]

People from flyover country speak so damn slow. Arggh. Do you understand the words that I am saying? Listen faster.

And I happen to love the layed-back flaky style of SD. You can flake on drinks with someone, not talk to them for a year, but when you run into them, you have a great time like nothing has happened. People naturally assume you have many different social circles, and don’t take things so personally. I think that kind of behavior makes you a social pariah elsewhere.

[bigtrouble]

delete

[bigtrouble]

Why are you expecting any type of bail-out? Talk about magical thinking: Its okay to take risks, because the gvt will bail us out. Good luck on that.

Sub-prime mortgage companies are going out of business RIGHT now.

As to all the companies who sell off MBS products? Who buys those? Institutional investors= your pension fund.

So what, your house is worth much less. So what, your pension is worthless. So what your company downsizes and your out of a job. How ’bout them chargers?

Read the COLLATERAL DAMAGE thread here.

Now one can tell the future. But I think, if you’re not scared, you are not paying attention.

[bigtrouble]

repeat post

[bigtrouble]

The new thing is: bulk sales of REO properties.

Want to buy a hundred fixer-uppers anyone?

No. Well, don’t expect a reply then.

[bigtrouble]

For me, a house would be a liability. Going through two major layoffs in 5 years time will do that to you. The thing is with layoffs, doesn’t matter how good you are, that job does not exist anymore in this location. And all those people you spent time impressing are out of work too.

There is just no guarantee that your job in San Diego is going to stay in San Diego.

[bigtrouble]

I heard from an exec in credit risk that the pressure for option-arm resets will be coming this year from the issuers of MBS/CDS.

[bigtrouble]

Just food for thought:

Don’t forget, if the property is damaged or requires repairs you can get significant concessions from the seller (bank). Those concessions are often tracked independently by the REO departments, and thus they have greater latitude in that then they do in pricing.

[bigtrouble]

Libby’s defense makes Bush a liar, to the whole world.

He said he would fire any involved in the leak. If libby is saying that the WH wanted to scapegoat him to protect Rove, that means the President of the United States, the Decider, lied to the American people when he said he would fire those involved.

No spin involved. Just the facts.

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