ARMS adjusting sooner

[bigtrouble]

I know! I don’t care what the foot traffic is telling you. This is a bloodbath in the making, not just because of arms adjusting, but also because of the job losses its going to cause in SoCal.

Not to torture a metaphor, but 2007 will be a bloody year. You can only hide your actual results for 3Qs. You need to have it identified by year-end, your story straight, and action items to tell investors. I think you’ll see a lot of these companies delaying their earnings reports.

[bigtrouble]

Nobody likes Nostrodamus’s…

[bigtrouble]

Nobody likes Nostrodamus’s…

[bigtrouble]

Nobody likes Nostrodamus’s…

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

So true. Nobody likes Nostradamus’s. They get easily banished and dismissed as “doom and gloomer.”

Over a year ago, this soothsayer also shared the crystal ball insights saying that San Diego prices in general would drop to about 50% off the Oct-2005 peak after October 2009. Nancy got nothing but dismissive comments.

And now, finally, even the sage of the land, Mr. Bugs, is now quoting 50% drop. He is easily swaying new converts. The 50% prediction is now becoming the general consensus around here. My, what the hay, HOW TIME AND SENTIMENTS HAVE CHANGED since you posted the original thread.

To be specific, Nancy’s crystal ball picks this one “invesuckment” as an example. The owner’s net worth is all tied up in this money pit.

Parcel no. 678-634-2400
Situs: 17014 Sienna Ridge Dr., 4-Closure Ranch, Rancho-B
Bought: 12/23/05
Paid: $922,500

Cyrstal ball says, it and similar houses (and there would be many distressed houses nearby) will have a very hard time finding buyers if they were to sell for more than $460K (50% off) right after October 2009. The credit contraction occurring now will make sure of that.

Bigtrouble, please speak up some more….

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

So true. Nobody likes Nostradamus’s. They get easily banished and dismissed as “doom and gloomer.”

Over a year ago, this soothsayer also shared the crystal ball insights saying that San Diego prices in general would drop to about 50% off the Oct-2005 peak after October 2009. Nancy got nothing but dismissive comments.

And now, finally, even the sage of the land, Mr. Bugs, is now quoting 50% drop. He is easily swaying new converts. The 50% prediction is now becoming the general consensus around here. My, what the hay, HOW TIME AND SENTIMENTS HAVE CHANGED since you posted the original thread.

To be specific, Nancy’s crystal ball picks this one “invesuckment” as an example. The owner’s net worth is all tied up in this money pit.

Parcel no. 678-634-2400
Situs: 17014 Sienna Ridge Dr., 4-Closure Ranch, Rancho-B
Bought: 12/23/05
Paid: $922,500

Cyrstal ball says, it and similar houses (and there would be many distressed houses nearby) will have a very hard time finding buyers if they were to sell for more than $460K (50% off) right after October 2009. The credit contraction occurring now will make sure of that.

Bigtrouble, please speak up some more….

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

So true. Nobody likes Nostradamus’s. They get easily banished and dismissed as “doom and gloomer.”

Over a year ago, this soothsayer also shared the crystal ball insights saying that San Diego prices in general would drop to about 50% off the Oct-2005 peak after October 2009. Nancy got nothing but dismissive comments.

And now, finally, even the sage of the land, Mr. Bugs, is now quoting 50% drop. He is easily swaying new converts. The 50% prediction is now becoming the general consensus around here. My, what the hay, HOW TIME AND SENTIMENTS HAVE CHANGED since you posted the original thread.

To be specific, Nancy’s crystal ball picks this one “invesuckment” as an example. The owner’s net worth is all tied up in this money pit.

Parcel no. 678-634-2400
Situs: 17014 Sienna Ridge Dr., 4-Closure Ranch, Rancho-B
Bought: 12/23/05
Paid: $922,500

Cyrstal ball says, it and similar houses (and there would be many distressed houses nearby) will have a very hard time finding buyers if they were to sell for more than $460K (50% off) right after October 2009. The credit contraction occurring now will make sure of that.

Bigtrouble, please speak up some more….

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

It’s highly probable that many option-ARMS or neg-am loans scheduled to reset from months 30 through 60 per the Credit Suisse “ARM Reset Schedule” are already getting recalculated NOW and are seeing early resets way ahead than what were FBs’ assumptions of later schedules. Certainly I keep reading about many FB’s who are caught unaware, getting surprised when they see their mortgage bills increasing almost every month! This sounds like early resets have been triggered already. Thus, the 50%-off-from-peak prediction will come sooner than 2012.

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

It’s highly probable that many option-ARMS or neg-am loans scheduled to reset from months 30 through 60 per the Credit Suisse “ARM Reset Schedule” are already getting recalculated NOW and are seeing early resets way ahead than what were FBs’ assumptions of later schedules. Certainly I keep reading about many FB’s who are caught unaware, getting surprised when they see their mortgage bills increasing almost every month! This sounds like early resets have been triggered already. Thus, the 50%-off-from-peak prediction will come sooner than 2012.

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

It’s highly probable that many option-ARMS or neg-am loans scheduled to reset from months 30 through 60 per the Credit Suisse “ARM Reset Schedule” are already getting recalculated NOW and are seeing early resets way ahead than what were FBs’ assumptions of later schedules. Certainly I keep reading about many FB’s who are caught unaware, getting surprised when they see their mortgage bills increasing almost every month! This sounds like early resets have been triggered already. Thus, the 50%-off-from-peak prediction will come sooner than 2012.

[Bugs]

I must have exercised a lot more restraint here over the last couple years in conveying my personal opinions in reference to the extent of correction than I realized. Otherwise, some of you wouldn’t be interpreting my recent exit from the closet as jumping on a bandwagon. I always thought my opinions about the long term projections were pretty obvious. Because of where we peaked “return to trend” has always meant a correction of at least 50%, otherwise it isn’t really a correction.

The more I think about it the more I now realize my lapse in restraint was counterproductive to what I’ve been trying to do on this blog.

I confess to attempting to influence the way people see things, but I prefer to think that my usual mode of persuasion has been oriented to providing the reasoning I’ve been using to get to my conclusions rather than to ask people to trust the opinion itself.

I am somewhat distressed at seeing a couple people comment about changing their opinions (apparently) based more on me stating my conclusion than on the reasoning I used to get there. That was never my intent. This is particularly problematic for me because my past track record for projecting timing and extent of these trends has been pretty poor.

I guess what I’m trying to say is if people share my point of view because my reasoning resonates with them then I’m good; but if they’re changing their opinions just because I came out and put a number on my opinion then I can’t feel too good about that.

Sorry. That wasn’t the plan.

[Bugs]

I must have exercised a lot more restraint here over the last couple years in conveying my personal opinions in reference to the extent of correction than I realized. Otherwise, some of you wouldn’t be interpreting my recent exit from the closet as jumping on a bandwagon. I always thought my opinions about the long term projections were pretty obvious. Because of where we peaked “return to trend” has always meant a correction of at least 50%, otherwise it isn’t really a correction.

The more I think about it the more I now realize my lapse in restraint was counterproductive to what I’ve been trying to do on this blog.

I confess to attempting to influence the way people see things, but I prefer to think that my usual mode of persuasion has been oriented to providing the reasoning I’ve been using to get to my conclusions rather than to ask people to trust the opinion itself.

I am somewhat distressed at seeing a couple people comment about changing their opinions (apparently) based more on me stating my conclusion than on the reasoning I used to get there. That was never my intent. This is particularly problematic for me because my past track record for projecting timing and extent of these trends has been pretty poor.

I guess what I’m trying to say is if people share my point of view because my reasoning resonates with them then I’m good; but if they’re changing their opinions just because I came out and put a number on my opinion then I can’t feel too good about that.

Sorry. That wasn’t the plan.

[Bugs]

I must have exercised a lot more restraint here over the last couple years in conveying my personal opinions in reference to the extent of correction than I realized. Otherwise, some of you wouldn’t be interpreting my recent exit from the closet as jumping on a bandwagon. I always thought my opinions about the long term projections were pretty obvious. Because of where we peaked “return to trend” has always meant a correction of at least 50%, otherwise it isn’t really a correction.

The more I think about it the more I now realize my lapse in restraint was counterproductive to what I’ve been trying to do on this blog.

I confess to attempting to influence the way people see things, but I prefer to think that my usual mode of persuasion has been oriented to providing the reasoning I’ve been using to get to my conclusions rather than to ask people to trust the opinion itself.

I am somewhat distressed at seeing a couple people comment about changing their opinions (apparently) based more on me stating my conclusion than on the reasoning I used to get there. That was never my intent. This is particularly problematic for me because my past track record for projecting timing and extent of these trends has been pretty poor.

I guess what I’m trying to say is if people share my point of view because my reasoning resonates with them then I’m good; but if they’re changing their opinions just because I came out and put a number on my opinion then I can’t feel too good about that.

Sorry. That wasn’t the plan.

[PerryChase]

Nancy, it’s interesting to note that a year ago few on here anticipated the mortgage meltdown we are experiencing today. powayseller is one of the earliest to post about resets and new underwriting standards.
Back then most posters were still focused on “affordability” and jobs availability.

We now know that funny money and lies drove this whole market. Countrywide going bankrupt would be the icing on the cake as far as I’m concerned.

[PerryChase]

Nancy, it’s interesting to note that a year ago few on here anticipated the mortgage meltdown we are experiencing today. powayseller is one of the earliest to post about resets and new underwriting standards.
Back then most posters were still focused on “affordability” and jobs availability.

We now know that funny money and lies drove this whole market. Countrywide going bankrupt would be the icing on the cake as far as I’m concerned.

[Author]

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