Derby Hill – Carmel Valley

[PerryChase]

Yes, patience, patience… it’s a virtue.

I recently visited some Carmel Valley models also. Buyers are in the dark of what’s going in new developments because many sales don’t go through the MLS so the sales data is not readily available out there.

About, Arabella, Portico, Santa Rosa and other CV developments. I recommend that potential buyers drive the neighborhood, jot down addresses and look at the closed sales on SDlookup.com. Compare lots with view and non-views and adjust accordingly.

I noticed that buyers accross the models have already “lost” money on their purchases last year. There are more many more such losses to come. Remember, that the closed prices don’t reflect incentives. I’m sure it’s not a good feeling for homeowners to see new houses in their development selling for less than they paid.

Developers are masters of gamesmmanship, lowering and raising prices as the winds blow. As the houses sit prices will come down and developers will be the first to react.

[gn]

I agree with sdcellar and PerryChase. Here’s another reason to be patient.

I believe we are now just seeing the tip of the iceberg with regard to foreclosure activities in the $1M+ homes.

A large percentage of these buyers bought with 100% financing and/or exotic mortgages. Many resale homes in CV have high asking prices because the owners cannot lower the price without being “under water”.

Unless one must have a brand new home in CV, in the next 2 years, we’ll see a raft of REOs on the market.

[sdrealtor]

Just got my weekly update of new NOD’s and REO’s. The list is getting longer every week but there wasnt any if CV.

[Anonymous]

what about these?

http://www.foreclosure.com/search.html?tab=&st=CA&cno=073&listingid=&ci=&z=92130&bdi=&bhi=&pi=&pa=&tl=foreclosure&tl=preforeclosure&tl=tax+lien&o=dos&ps=25&pg=

[sdrealtor]

I said NEW one’s. Those are all at least a few weeks old.

[farbet]

sd realtor,How does one get these?
A freiend of mine placed offers on 3 foreclosures and bankedowned and she never had a courtesy of a reply.As a matter of courtesy should the listing agent of the REO at least negotiate?
Sure the list is getting larger. Perhaps the investors are buying them again !!

[bigtrouble]

The new thing is: bulk sales of REO properties.

Want to buy a hundred fixer-uppers anyone?

No. Well, don’t expect a reply then.

[bigtrouble]

repeat post

[gn]

It’s important to differentiate between 2 different things:

1. The underlying “fuel” for the market. The rising prices were primarily the result of “easy credit” & lower interest rates. Of these 2 factors, “easy credit” is a more dominant factor.

Institutional investors are shying away from mortgage-backed securities, because foreclosure rates are going up. So, the easy credit is going away. This trend is not reversing anytime soon (the pendulum is swinging).

This means: going forward, the size of the mortgage loans will be based on incomes.

2. Home buyer confidence: this tends to fluctuate and show
up in real estate activities. I think this plays a minor factor because: it doesn’t matter how confident a buyer feels, he can only buy with what the lender is willing to lend him.

Many people mistakenly interpret the pickup in sale activities as signs that the market has turned around. But the reality is that the fundamentals are just not there to support current prices.

[sdcellar]

I’ve been thinking that rumors of the market’s recovery could actually help fuel further declines. How you ask?

One of the main reasons that some consider the market to be picking up is based on the fact that inventory hasn’t come back as quickly as some expected. This leaner (although still significant) inventory has helped spur a few additional sales. Nothing fantastic, but the listing to pending to sales ratios are certainly better than they were.

One of the reasons put forth that inventory is down is because those sellers “testing” the market have left. If this is indeed true, then when these “testers” catch wind of a recovering market, they’ll be right back. After all, why not?

Up goes inventory and the ratios start going backward and then it’s just a replay of last year.

I could be wrong of course, but I guess time will tell. These re-listers tell me I could be right though…

[PerryChase]

Here’s a Santa Rosa flip trying to come out unscathed. Let’s see what he eventually sells for.

http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/search/home_detail.jsp?listing_num=071011460&mls=mls_sandiego&cKey=l4t247zp&source=SANDICOR
http://sdlookup.com/PropertyDetails/tabid/53/forumid/1/view/topics/pid/C213395E/Default.aspx

List Price: $1,099,000 – $1,099,000
Sales History
Date Price
08/04/2006 $982,593

Bedrooms: 4
Full Baths: 3
Partial Baths: 0
Square Feet: 2,961
Lot Size: N/A
Year Built: 2006
Listing Date: 02/09/07
On Market: 0 day
Type: SFR
Status: ACTIVE
MLS #: 071011460

Description
$1,099,000. Sellers loss is your gain! Santa rosa plan 1, priced far below any other including builder! Meticulous detail & design! Loaded; surround sound,stainless steel,granite,brailian walnut floors,custom mantle,chandeliers,solar panels,tankless h2o heater, upgraded bathrooms,approved landscape design! Must see!

[sdcellar]

Approved landscape design. Is that a new term for “dirt yard”?

[BobbyD]

It shows up as pending now in MLS, so apparently it must have sold after 3 days. Interesting . . .

[Author]

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