Will rents create a price floor despite the mini rental bubble?

[bjensen]

I’m bumping this up a bit selfishly, because I am looking to move shortly to another rental and was wondering if you thought about what I am seeing on the ground.

I have been looking in Rancho Santa Margarita, where some rentals have come down from $1400 to $1200 for 2 bed 2 bath.

Are rents going to fall even more? And if so, do the falling rents provide the catalyst for another leg down in the RE market like I previously contemplated on this post?

I don’t have the will to pull the trigger on a purchase at this point, but surprisingly, many of the condos where I am looking are actually more costly to rent than to buy. SFR’s are holding ground much better, but some of the condos in South Orange County are more than 65% off thier highs.

[garysears]

There were some interesting comments on the recent threads discussing rents over on the Calculated Risk blog today.

I now see how it is possible for rents to fall even in the face all these foreclosures turning owners of mortgages back into owners of leases.

I had been unconciously assuming household size is fixed and that mostly you have owners and renters, only affected by birth rate/population inflow or outflow. But I failed to account for people “doubling up” in hard times. That is, I was assuming household size doesn’t really change.

But if the comments on CR are correct, we have a national historic low average size household combined with a historic oversupply of housing in what could be a historic recession. This doesn’t predict anything specific for S.D. but does imply many more houses than really required on a national level.

Just food for thought. My gut says rents have to come down. Otherwise I can’t see why all these sub 200K properties aren’t being scooped up by investors. I know there is large investor interest but that hasn’t kept prices from continuing to fall.

[garysears]

There were some interesting comments on the recent threads discussing rents over on the Calculated Risk blog today.

I now see how it is possible for rents to fall even in the face all these foreclosures turning owners of mortgages back into owners of leases.

I had been unconciously assuming household size is fixed and that mostly you have owners and renters, only affected by birth rate/population inflow or outflow. But I failed to account for people “doubling up” in hard times. That is, I was assuming household size doesn’t really change.

But if the comments on CR are correct, we have a national historic low average size household combined with a historic oversupply of housing in what could be a historic recession. This doesn’t predict anything specific for S.D. but does imply many more houses than really required on a national level.

Just food for thought. My gut says rents have to come down. Otherwise I can’t see why all these sub 200K properties aren’t being scooped up by investors. I know there is large investor interest but that hasn’t kept prices from continuing to fall.

[garysears]

There were some interesting comments on the recent threads discussing rents over on the Calculated Risk blog today.

I now see how it is possible for rents to fall even in the face all these foreclosures turning owners of mortgages back into owners of leases.

I had been unconciously assuming household size is fixed and that mostly you have owners and renters, only affected by birth rate/population inflow or outflow. But I failed to account for people “doubling up” in hard times. That is, I was assuming household size doesn’t really change.

But if the comments on CR are correct, we have a national historic low average size household combined with a historic oversupply of housing in what could be a historic recession. This doesn’t predict anything specific for S.D. but does imply many more houses than really required on a national level.

Just food for thought. My gut says rents have to come down. Otherwise I can’t see why all these sub 200K properties aren’t being scooped up by investors. I know there is large investor interest but that hasn’t kept prices from continuing to fall.

[garysears]

There were some interesting comments on the recent threads discussing rents over on the Calculated Risk blog today.

I now see how it is possible for rents to fall even in the face all these foreclosures turning owners of mortgages back into owners of leases.

I had been unconciously assuming household size is fixed and that mostly you have owners and renters, only affected by birth rate/population inflow or outflow. But I failed to account for people “doubling up” in hard times. That is, I was assuming household size doesn’t really change.

But if the comments on CR are correct, we have a national historic low average size household combined with a historic oversupply of housing in what could be a historic recession. This doesn’t predict anything specific for S.D. but does imply many more houses than really required on a national level.

Just food for thought. My gut says rents have to come down. Otherwise I can’t see why all these sub 200K properties aren’t being scooped up by investors. I know there is large investor interest but that hasn’t kept prices from continuing to fall.

[garysears]

There were some interesting comments on the recent threads discussing rents over on the Calculated Risk blog today.

I now see how it is possible for rents to fall even in the face all these foreclosures turning owners of mortgages back into owners of leases.

I had been unconciously assuming household size is fixed and that mostly you have owners and renters, only affected by birth rate/population inflow or outflow. But I failed to account for people “doubling up” in hard times. That is, I was assuming household size doesn’t really change.

But if the comments on CR are correct, we have a national historic low average size household combined with a historic oversupply of housing in what could be a historic recession. This doesn’t predict anything specific for S.D. but does imply many more houses than really required on a national level.

Just food for thought. My gut says rents have to come down. Otherwise I can’t see why all these sub 200K properties aren’t being scooped up by investors. I know there is large investor interest but that hasn’t kept prices from continuing to fall.

[4plexowner]

“national historic low average size household combined with a historic oversupply of housing in what could be a historic recession”

along with a significant shift in demographics as the baby boomers retire (or try to retire) over the next 10 years or so – many of these people are counting on the equity in their real estate to fund their retirement – accessing that equity could put many more ‘excess’ housing units on the market

[4plexowner]

“national historic low average size household combined with a historic oversupply of housing in what could be a historic recession”

along with a significant shift in demographics as the baby boomers retire (or try to retire) over the next 10 years or so – many of these people are counting on the equity in their real estate to fund their retirement – accessing that equity could put many more ‘excess’ housing units on the market

[4plexowner]

“national historic low average size household combined with a historic oversupply of housing in what could be a historic recession”

along with a significant shift in demographics as the baby boomers retire (or try to retire) over the next 10 years or so – many of these people are counting on the equity in their real estate to fund their retirement – accessing that equity could put many more ‘excess’ housing units on the market

[4plexowner]

“national historic low average size household combined with a historic oversupply of housing in what could be a historic recession”

along with a significant shift in demographics as the baby boomers retire (or try to retire) over the next 10 years or so – many of these people are counting on the equity in their real estate to fund their retirement – accessing that equity could put many more ‘excess’ housing units on the market

[4plexowner]

“national historic low average size household combined with a historic oversupply of housing in what could be a historic recession”

along with a significant shift in demographics as the baby boomers retire (or try to retire) over the next 10 years or so – many of these people are counting on the equity in their real estate to fund their retirement – accessing that equity could put many more ‘excess’ housing units on the market

[cv2]

Companies use the current crisis as excuses to get rid of their older workers and this forces lots of baby boomers to lose their jobs. For the most of them, they have no choice but to sell their homes to get as much as money they could and go either downsize, renting or moving to cheaper places. I am already seeing this is happening to my colleagues.

I think, as a result of this and the sheer number of baby boomers, will put a downward pressure on both home prices and rentals. Coupled with “doubling up” for younger generations, this is “historical”.

[cv2]

Companies use the current crisis as excuses to get rid of their older workers and this forces lots of baby boomers to lose their jobs. For the most of them, they have no choice but to sell their homes to get as much as money they could and go either downsize, renting or moving to cheaper places. I am already seeing this is happening to my colleagues.

I think, as a result of this and the sheer number of baby boomers, will put a downward pressure on both home prices and rentals. Coupled with “doubling up” for younger generations, this is “historical”.

[cv2]

Companies use the current crisis as excuses to get rid of their older workers and this forces lots of baby boomers to lose their jobs. For the most of them, they have no choice but to sell their homes to get as much as money they could and go either downsize, renting or moving to cheaper places. I am already seeing this is happening to my colleagues.

I think, as a result of this and the sheer number of baby boomers, will put a downward pressure on both home prices and rentals. Coupled with “doubling up” for younger generations, this is “historical”.

[cv2]

Companies use the current crisis as excuses to get rid of their older workers and this forces lots of baby boomers to lose their jobs. For the most of them, they have no choice but to sell their homes to get as much as money they could and go either downsize, renting or moving to cheaper places. I am already seeing this is happening to my colleagues.

I think, as a result of this and the sheer number of baby boomers, will put a downward pressure on both home prices and rentals. Coupled with “doubling up” for younger generations, this is “historical”.

[Author]

Posts