Will rents create a price floor despite the mini rental bubble?

[bjensen]

Surveyor,

A 5.5% increase YOY doesn’t seem that extreme in times when incomes keep pace with cost of living, but I don’t think that is what the average renter has experienced in the last decade. I think a large cohort actually lost ground.

That’s what I find significant. I know that rents are normally a function of supply and demand, but I can’t help but think that there is a little wiggle room for rents to come down. I know that many properties are being held indefinitely at this point, but I can’t help but wonder if they will eventually become rentals and increase supply. I also wonder if demand will stagnate as 20-30 somethings opt to live at home in a down economic cycle and lower income households make do living in clown houses illegal immigrant style or simply move.

Who knows… I guess we will see.

[DWCAP]

Most likey we will see a period of low rent growth, or stagnation than actual rent declines. As explained before, LL’s HATE lowering monthly rent. More likely you will see “get the 13th month free” or “1/2 off 1st months rent” buydowns than never get reported in those annual serveys. (this is roughl akin to an interest rate buy down. I am sure HLS could get you a 4% fixed 30 year morgage today, if you are willing to pay the points. It sounds great, but it isnt really a 4% interest rate.)

I also feel this will coinside with a steping up of the trend seen in the past few years or so of domestic out migration of residents of SoCal. The difference will be that we will see a drop in international immigration to the area, meaning an overall slowing or reduction in the SoCal population. No faster way to reduce housing prices and other economic pressures than to reduce the population supplying those pressures.
Most of my friends, all college educated hard working twentysomethings with great futures, are moving from the area. NY, Baltimore, Vegas, Seattle, Texas; anywhere the cost of living isnt so bad. This will catch up with us in a few years when they should have been buying houses and having families.

[DWCAP]

Most likey we will see a period of low rent growth, or stagnation than actual rent declines. As explained before, LL’s HATE lowering monthly rent. More likely you will see “get the 13th month free” or “1/2 off 1st months rent” buydowns than never get reported in those annual serveys. (this is roughl akin to an interest rate buy down. I am sure HLS could get you a 4% fixed 30 year morgage today, if you are willing to pay the points. It sounds great, but it isnt really a 4% interest rate.)

I also feel this will coinside with a steping up of the trend seen in the past few years or so of domestic out migration of residents of SoCal. The difference will be that we will see a drop in international immigration to the area, meaning an overall slowing or reduction in the SoCal population. No faster way to reduce housing prices and other economic pressures than to reduce the population supplying those pressures.
Most of my friends, all college educated hard working twentysomethings with great futures, are moving from the area. NY, Baltimore, Vegas, Seattle, Texas; anywhere the cost of living isnt so bad. This will catch up with us in a few years when they should have been buying houses and having families.

[DWCAP]

Most likey we will see a period of low rent growth, or stagnation than actual rent declines. As explained before, LL’s HATE lowering monthly rent. More likely you will see “get the 13th month free” or “1/2 off 1st months rent” buydowns than never get reported in those annual serveys. (this is roughl akin to an interest rate buy down. I am sure HLS could get you a 4% fixed 30 year morgage today, if you are willing to pay the points. It sounds great, but it isnt really a 4% interest rate.)

I also feel this will coinside with a steping up of the trend seen in the past few years or so of domestic out migration of residents of SoCal. The difference will be that we will see a drop in international immigration to the area, meaning an overall slowing or reduction in the SoCal population. No faster way to reduce housing prices and other economic pressures than to reduce the population supplying those pressures.
Most of my friends, all college educated hard working twentysomethings with great futures, are moving from the area. NY, Baltimore, Vegas, Seattle, Texas; anywhere the cost of living isnt so bad. This will catch up with us in a few years when they should have been buying houses and having families.

[DWCAP]

Most likey we will see a period of low rent growth, or stagnation than actual rent declines. As explained before, LL’s HATE lowering monthly rent. More likely you will see “get the 13th month free” or “1/2 off 1st months rent” buydowns than never get reported in those annual serveys. (this is roughl akin to an interest rate buy down. I am sure HLS could get you a 4% fixed 30 year morgage today, if you are willing to pay the points. It sounds great, but it isnt really a 4% interest rate.)

I also feel this will coinside with a steping up of the trend seen in the past few years or so of domestic out migration of residents of SoCal. The difference will be that we will see a drop in international immigration to the area, meaning an overall slowing or reduction in the SoCal population. No faster way to reduce housing prices and other economic pressures than to reduce the population supplying those pressures.
Most of my friends, all college educated hard working twentysomethings with great futures, are moving from the area. NY, Baltimore, Vegas, Seattle, Texas; anywhere the cost of living isnt so bad. This will catch up with us in a few years when they should have been buying houses and having families.

[DWCAP]

Most likey we will see a period of low rent growth, or stagnation than actual rent declines. As explained before, LL’s HATE lowering monthly rent. More likely you will see “get the 13th month free” or “1/2 off 1st months rent” buydowns than never get reported in those annual serveys. (this is roughl akin to an interest rate buy down. I am sure HLS could get you a 4% fixed 30 year morgage today, if you are willing to pay the points. It sounds great, but it isnt really a 4% interest rate.)

I also feel this will coinside with a steping up of the trend seen in the past few years or so of domestic out migration of residents of SoCal. The difference will be that we will see a drop in international immigration to the area, meaning an overall slowing or reduction in the SoCal population. No faster way to reduce housing prices and other economic pressures than to reduce the population supplying those pressures.
Most of my friends, all college educated hard working twentysomethings with great futures, are moving from the area. NY, Baltimore, Vegas, Seattle, Texas; anywhere the cost of living isnt so bad. This will catch up with us in a few years when they should have been buying houses and having families.

[surveyor]

paces

I know that many properties are being held indefinitely at this point, but I can’t help but wonder if they will eventually become rentals and increase supply.

I know I’m in the extreme minority in thinking rents won’t be going down, but here’s the question: how will those bank held properties eventually become rentals? Everyone says, oh, lots of foreclosures, lots of REO’s, the rents will go down soon. Well, those foreclosures and REO’s need to find an investor willing to get a loan on the property (which is hard given the credit crunch nowadays), with enough money to put into the place to make it rentable (not a lot of investors with a lot of cash money nowadays), and then you need a lot of those investors in order to make an effect on rental prices. I just don’t see it happening (yet). Believe me, I’m looking. If these investors start going into the market again, everyone would notice because sales would start increasing.

Which I guess would be when the bottom is. =shrug=

[surveyor]

paces

I know that many properties are being held indefinitely at this point, but I can’t help but wonder if they will eventually become rentals and increase supply.

I know I’m in the extreme minority in thinking rents won’t be going down, but here’s the question: how will those bank held properties eventually become rentals? Everyone says, oh, lots of foreclosures, lots of REO’s, the rents will go down soon. Well, those foreclosures and REO’s need to find an investor willing to get a loan on the property (which is hard given the credit crunch nowadays), with enough money to put into the place to make it rentable (not a lot of investors with a lot of cash money nowadays), and then you need a lot of those investors in order to make an effect on rental prices. I just don’t see it happening (yet). Believe me, I’m looking. If these investors start going into the market again, everyone would notice because sales would start increasing.

Which I guess would be when the bottom is. =shrug=

[surveyor]

paces

I know that many properties are being held indefinitely at this point, but I can’t help but wonder if they will eventually become rentals and increase supply.

I know I’m in the extreme minority in thinking rents won’t be going down, but here’s the question: how will those bank held properties eventually become rentals? Everyone says, oh, lots of foreclosures, lots of REO’s, the rents will go down soon. Well, those foreclosures and REO’s need to find an investor willing to get a loan on the property (which is hard given the credit crunch nowadays), with enough money to put into the place to make it rentable (not a lot of investors with a lot of cash money nowadays), and then you need a lot of those investors in order to make an effect on rental prices. I just don’t see it happening (yet). Believe me, I’m looking. If these investors start going into the market again, everyone would notice because sales would start increasing.

Which I guess would be when the bottom is. =shrug=

[surveyor]

paces

I know that many properties are being held indefinitely at this point, but I can’t help but wonder if they will eventually become rentals and increase supply.

I know I’m in the extreme minority in thinking rents won’t be going down, but here’s the question: how will those bank held properties eventually become rentals? Everyone says, oh, lots of foreclosures, lots of REO’s, the rents will go down soon. Well, those foreclosures and REO’s need to find an investor willing to get a loan on the property (which is hard given the credit crunch nowadays), with enough money to put into the place to make it rentable (not a lot of investors with a lot of cash money nowadays), and then you need a lot of those investors in order to make an effect on rental prices. I just don’t see it happening (yet). Believe me, I’m looking. If these investors start going into the market again, everyone would notice because sales would start increasing.

Which I guess would be when the bottom is. =shrug=

[surveyor]

paces

I know that many properties are being held indefinitely at this point, but I can’t help but wonder if they will eventually become rentals and increase supply.

I know I’m in the extreme minority in thinking rents won’t be going down, but here’s the question: how will those bank held properties eventually become rentals? Everyone says, oh, lots of foreclosures, lots of REO’s, the rents will go down soon. Well, those foreclosures and REO’s need to find an investor willing to get a loan on the property (which is hard given the credit crunch nowadays), with enough money to put into the place to make it rentable (not a lot of investors with a lot of cash money nowadays), and then you need a lot of those investors in order to make an effect on rental prices. I just don’t see it happening (yet). Believe me, I’m looking. If these investors start going into the market again, everyone would notice because sales would start increasing.

Which I guess would be when the bottom is. =shrug=

[bjensen]

I’m bumping this up a bit selfishly, because I am looking to move shortly to another rental and was wondering if you thought about what I am seeing on the ground.

I have been looking in Rancho Santa Margarita, where some rentals have come down from $1400 to $1200 for 2 bed 2 bath.

Are rents going to fall even more? And if so, do the falling rents provide the catalyst for another leg down in the RE market like I previously contemplated on this post?

I don’t have the will to pull the trigger on a purchase at this point, but surprisingly, many of the condos where I am looking are actually more costly to rent than to buy. SFR’s are holding ground much better, but some of the condos in South Orange County are more than 65% off thier highs.

[bjensen]

I’m bumping this up a bit selfishly, because I am looking to move shortly to another rental and was wondering if you thought about what I am seeing on the ground.

I have been looking in Rancho Santa Margarita, where some rentals have come down from $1400 to $1200 for 2 bed 2 bath.

Are rents going to fall even more? And if so, do the falling rents provide the catalyst for another leg down in the RE market like I previously contemplated on this post?

I don’t have the will to pull the trigger on a purchase at this point, but surprisingly, many of the condos where I am looking are actually more costly to rent than to buy. SFR’s are holding ground much better, but some of the condos in South Orange County are more than 65% off thier highs.

[bjensen]

I’m bumping this up a bit selfishly, because I am looking to move shortly to another rental and was wondering if you thought about what I am seeing on the ground.

I have been looking in Rancho Santa Margarita, where some rentals have come down from $1400 to $1200 for 2 bed 2 bath.

Are rents going to fall even more? And if so, do the falling rents provide the catalyst for another leg down in the RE market like I previously contemplated on this post?

I don’t have the will to pull the trigger on a purchase at this point, but surprisingly, many of the condos where I am looking are actually more costly to rent than to buy. SFR’s are holding ground much better, but some of the condos in South Orange County are more than 65% off thier highs.

[bjensen]

I’m bumping this up a bit selfishly, because I am looking to move shortly to another rental and was wondering if you thought about what I am seeing on the ground.

I have been looking in Rancho Santa Margarita, where some rentals have come down from $1400 to $1200 for 2 bed 2 bath.

Are rents going to fall even more? And if so, do the falling rents provide the catalyst for another leg down in the RE market like I previously contemplated on this post?

I don’t have the will to pull the trigger on a purchase at this point, but surprisingly, many of the condos where I am looking are actually more costly to rent than to buy. SFR’s are holding ground much better, but some of the condos in South Orange County are more than 65% off thier highs.

[Author]

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