Whatever happened to Peak Oil?

[spdrun]

I wouldn’t change them out all at once, but buy a few LEDs at a time to install as the heat bulbs burn out.

[FlyerInHi]

Some people leave their lights on all day, especially in the kitchen. 6 lights at 100 watt each. That’s a lot of energy. That’s my neighbor.

[The-Shoveler]

Our house has enough natural light where we never keep the lights on during the day. But my mothers much smaller condo has quite a few darker areas where we installed solar tubes, they really work great for otherwise closed off area’s with no windows.

[CA renter]

[quote=The-Shoveler]Our house has enough natural light where we never keep the lights on during the day. But my mothers much smaller condo has quite a few darker areas where we installed solar tubes, they really work great for otherwise closed off area’s with no windows.[/quote]

Totally agree about the solar tubes. Those things are great!

[phaster]

[quote=harvey]There is no doubt that we are consuming fossil fuels at a rate orders of magnitude faster than the earth ever produced them.

The market can adjust to short-term supply and demand changes, but in the long-term we will run out.

Nobody really knows how far out long-term is. It could be a few decades, it could be a few centuries.[/quote]

FWIW the problem isn’t one of running out, the problem is how much will it cost to extract and get the resource to market. Personally I’d bet society will have no choice but to face the reality of the problem in decades, based upon the burn rate and the fact that:

A staggering 98 tons of prehistoric, buried plant material – that’s 196,000 pounds – is required to produce each gallon of gasoline we burn in our cars, SUVs, trucks and other vehicles

http://unews.utah.edu/news_releases/bad-mileage-98-tons-of-plants-per-gallon/

[phaster]

[quote=EconProf]Remember Peak Oil? A few years ago we were all told that oil prices, then over $100, would soon double and then double again, as the world’s supplies became exhausted.

Then along came fracking. Good old capitalism harnessed technology to again stymie the doomsayers. Now the US will become an energy exporter to the rest of the world. In some previous years we imported about half of our oil. Soon we will produce more energy than Saudi Arabia. Once again the market system comes through.[/quote]

Peak oil did happen back around 2005, but one has to see and understand the context of the individuals associated with the theory/problem.

To begin, the theory of “peak oil” was proposed in the 1950’s by a shell oil geologist named Marion Hubbert and then popularized around the early 2000’s by Matthew Simmons (who ran an investment banking services firm for the energy industry) after he wrote the book “Twilight in the Desert.”

What these two (DEAD) individuals were most likely concerned with was the peaking of liquid fuels delivered from “conventional” oil NOT tight oil (e.g. oil derived from shale or tar sands!!).

Since you most likely are looking at the problem of “peak oil” with an economics mind set, you might be thinking there is no longer a problem because there is the simple solution of “economic substitution.”

From the consumer stand point oil from convention land based fields like “spindel top” in Texas, or “guwair” the superfield in Saudi Arabia is no different from oil derived from “cantarell” which is a shallow water oil field in the gulf of mexico!

Then one has to consider “tight” oil derived from the tar sands in tar sands in alberta, and of course there is the latest source of oil (energy) from shale in barnett TX, and the marcellus in the appalachian basin.

The simplest 30 second way to understand why “conventional” peak oil is indeed a very real economic problem in the long run, is watch the intro to the beverly hillbillies theme song and note the image associated with “bubbling crude”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDgTJulizrs

Long story short, conventional oil is cheap and easy to extract/process and bring to market! BUT the “economic substitutions” for easy to get to conventional oil from unconventional geological formations I mentioned above, requires lots more money and resourced to bring to market!!

If you are trying to figure out why there there has been a rapid drop in oil prices this past couple of months, one has to think like a a long term investor and a student of peakoil!!!

I myself see the shale revolution of this past half decade as kinda like the “optimistic” atomic energy revolution of the 1950’s (IMHO the phrase “too cheap to meter” is a reto sound byte, applicable to “fracking”)

Personally I’m guessing there is lots more to the sudden drop in prices of oil than meets the eye.

In other words the current KSA powers that be are borrowing the bill casey CIA playbook of the reagan era (in other words the USA screws the USSR, by investing in oil infrastructure in Sauda Arabia there by lowereing the cost below the cost to produce for the USSR, in addition the USA sells weapons systems to Sauda Arabia which creates jobs in the USA and as another bonus the US consumer gets cheap gas to fuel the SUV fad! So bottom line a strategy was developed so that the economy of the USA during this era is the global winner!!)

Before matt simmons died, I heard he said before we clearly see the downward side of the production curve, there would be an oscillating plateau for a while (i.e. time period we are now in where convention oil production declines would be filled by technology like increased extraction techniques from convention fields, and extraction from tight geological formations like “fracking” from shale)

There is a difference between human and geological time (and it is important to be aware of those differences when trying to understand what exactly is going on).

What we are experiencing now with the economy is the short term effects of money flows in the market place w.r.t. oil prices! BUT in the end society will have to face the reality that there is no way to ignore the laws of physics!!

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=harvey]There is no doubt that we are consuming fossil fuels at a rate orders of magnitude faster than the earth ever produced them.

The market can adjust to short-term supply and demand changes, but in the long-term we will run out.

Nobody really knows how far out long-term is. It could be a few decades, it could be a few centuries.[/quote]

Does it matter if we have alternatives to oil? Will continue to need oil for a long time to fly planes, run tanks and military equipment, etc…

But as far as transportation for the average Joe, push comes to shove, we are at a point where we can adjust and not really lose quality of life.

Remember we still have lots of coal.

[phaster]

[quote=FlyerInHi]
Does it matter if we have alternatives to oil? Will continue to need oil for a long time to fly planes, run tanks and military equipment, etc…

But as far as transportation for the average Joe, push comes to shove, we are at a point where we can adjust and not really lose quality of life.

Remember we still have lots of coal.
[/quote]

Liquid fuel(s) is the only viable alternative because of energy density to fly planes, run tanks and military equipment, etc…

what you might find interesting is there was an atomic powered B36 “bomber” back in the 1950’s

also back during WW II nazi germany did indeed convert coal using the Fischer–Tropsch process into avgas because the allied bombed axis infrastructure

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer–Tropsch_process
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Campaign_of_World_War_II

for the USA war effort, we were lucky to have access to conventional oil field and produced 100/130 octane for our aircraft engines (which boosted performance),

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/tech_ops/read.main/192760

so if/when you hear the main stream media thinking coal is an altarnative, then you’ll know we as a society “worldwide” are clearly on the down ward side of the “peak oil” curve

S. Africa is the only example that has historically produced syngas because that part of the world does not have convention oil fields

http://www.sasol.com/sites/default/files/content/files/mind_over_matter_07_1178173866476_0.pdf

FYI here is an interesting graph scaled showing production in thousand barrels per day of Crude + Condensate (outside the USA and Canada) with the last data point September 2014 (note the bumpy plateau started in July 2005)

one last thought to ponder is something else I just read about “Why Cheap Oil Does Not Mean that Peak Oil is a Myth”

http://ergobalance.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/why-cheap-oil-does-not-mean-that-peak.html

bottom line its not if but when average joe IMHO is sadly going to have a “crude awakening”

[barnaby33]

EconProf, are you trolling? Do you believe Jeebus is putting more dinosaurs under the dirt for you? Global conventional oil production has peaked. It actually did so around 05. It seems mighty disingenuous to ask a leading question, put a number randomly extracted from some orifice, then throw in some jingoistic non-sense as evidence or proof. What kind of econ do you teach?

EROEI is a bitch, and non conventionals are expensive. Peak Oil was never about the alarmism you are attempting to attribute to it. Rather the sure and certain knowledge that as a planet we are over the hump on the cheap stuff. It was however a way to plan for a less energy dense future. Unless of course that PhD of yours will allow you to defy the laws of thermodynamics, then all bets are off.
Josh

[EconProf]

[quote=barnaby33]EconProf, are you trolling? Do you believe Jeebus is putting more dinosaurs under the dirt for you? Global conventional oil production has peaked. It actually did so around 05. It seems mighty disingenuous to ask a leading question, put a number randomly extracted from some orifice, then throw in some jingoistic non-sense as evidence or proof. What kind of econ do you teach?

EROEI is a bitch, and non conventionals are expensive. Peak Oil was never about the alarmism you are attempting to attribute to it. Rather the sure and certain knowledge that as a planet we are over the hump on the cheap stuff. It was however a way to plan for a less energy dense future. Unless of course that PhD of yours will allow you to defy the laws of thermodynamics, then all bets are off.
Josh[/quote]
Actually Barnaby, I haven’t posted a single entry since I started this thread, so I don’t know who you are referring to.
My point still stands: The market system is underappreciated as an efficient way to allocate resources and harness technology. In this case, the high price stimulated exploration, new extraction techniques, and conservation, so prices fell. Peak Oil alarmists underestimated capitalism’s virtues, so their predictions have turned out wrong.
You’re welcome.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=barnaby33] Peak Oil was never about the alarmism you are attempting to attribute to it. [/quote]

There’s alarmism for sure. Peak oil is part doom and gloom just like people agitating about the national debt and skyrocketing interest rates. They are buying guns and gold bars, and farm land, or whatever they do to prepare for when SHTF.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=phaster]
bottom line its not if but when average joe IMHO is sadly going to have a “crude awakening”

[/quote]

Crude awakening. I love the pay on words.
I’ll save it to watch later. I watch a little bit of the end.

I don’t believe in the doom and gloom. Stock market collapse? Only the 1% being able to afford air travel? life like it was before oil?

No doubt oil will eventually run out and be in short supply.. but there are alternative and we can plan for it. If we don’t plan now, it would be our own fault for not doing so. For example we would easily limit auto engine sizes and cut consumption in half. We’ll have less automobile choices but our standard of living would not be affected.

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=phaster]
bottom line its not if but when average joe IMHO is sadly going to have a “crude awakening”

[/quote]

Crude awakening. I love the pay on words.
I’ll save it to watch later. I watch a little bit of the end.

I don’t believe in the doom and gloom. Stock market collapse? Only the 1% being able to afford air travel? life like it was before oil?

No doubt oil will eventually run out and be in short supply.. but there are alternative and we can plan for it. If we don’t plan now, it would be our own fault for not doing so. For example we would easily limit auto engine sizes and cut consumption in half. We’ll have less automobile choices but our standard of living would not be affected.[/quote]

I Still believe Skunkworks is about to put Big Oil out of biz, but anyway, if California would allow more fracking, we would put Texas and Dakota way down the list of biggest Oil producers in the US.

We could become energy independent in a few years, That’s what’s got OPEC running scared, We don’t need them.

[FlyerInHi]

Talking about saving resources….

A lot of people don’t believe in conservation. Drill baby drill and use it all up as soon as we can, notwithstanding the fact that oil and fossil fuels are finite resources.

Money on the other hand is a man made concept and infinite. But, for some reason, we ought to ration its use and limit growth and human well being.

[spdrun]

I support rationing both. Keep the plebes renting and walking to work. Tackle housing inflation, global warming, and obesity in one swell foop.

All joking aside, money does have to be rationed to make it useful. Unlimited amount of money in circulation would make money worthless, which would defeat the point of money. The question isn’t whether to ration, but what level to ration it at.

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