Whatever happened to Peak Oil?

[FlyerInHi]

Peak oil, dollar debasement, and hyper inflation all go together.

[FlyerInHi]

Some analyst mentioned $20/barrel.

Also, if the goal of drill-baby-drill and Keystone XL are to lower the cost of fuel for American consumers, then why are we allowing the export of oil from our Red White and Blue shores? Supply and demand, duh!

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=livinincali][quote=The-Shoveler]
But that said, utility companies are starting to panic over rooftop solar (and companies like WalMart) cutting into their revenue.[/quote]

Well yeah because power companies have to build expensive natural gas turbine peaker plants to provide electricity when the sun isn’t shining. Or are you ok with rolling blackouts and brown outs during the evening hours and when the sun isn’t shining.

That’s the problem with solar it’s expensive to store in batteries and it’s expensive to build a power plant that is only used part of the time. The cost of the natural gas to fuel that reactor is cheap in the grand scheme of things. Building a 200MW reactor for a couple hundred million dollars to be turned on in an instant when the sun isn’t shining isn’t cheap. It means the cost of power is close to doubled. You had to buy all the solar panels and you had to buy the natural gas fired power plant to be a backup.
[/quote]

I guess they are working on solving the intermittent nature of renewals.

For the scientifically minded:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/how-building-a-better-battery-would-change-the-game-for-renewable-energy/

Home

[Escoguy]

Two years ago we bought a Nissan Leaf and a Plug in Hybrid, cut our gasoline use by 80%, added solar. Just added a second system so our electric bill is minimal. Now adding solar on four rental properties here to get the cash flow of about 12%/year on average. I think there are thousands of others who are in some stage of doing the same. The total economic impact between additional revenue +$500 month and savings of $400 /month is about 33% of our mortgage plus our tenants get some savings too.

I think the transition to renewables will be faster than many expect.

[livinincali]

[quote=Escoguy]Two years ago we bought a Nissan Leaf and a Plug in Hybrid, cut our gasoline use by 80%, added solar. [/quote]

When do you plug those cars in during the day when the sun is shinning or at night when you get home from work. If it’s at night where do you think the power is coming from.

[quote=Escoguy]
Just added a second system so our electric bill is minimal. Now adding solar on four rental properties here to get the cash flow of about 12%/year on average. I think there are thousands of others who are in some stage of doing the same. The total economic impact between additional revenue +$500 month and savings of $400 /month is about 33% of our mortgage plus our tenants get some savings too.

I think the transition to renewables will be faster than many expect.
[/quote]

The financial part only works because of net metering, without it you’d be lucky to get 1/5th the retail price for selling power to the power company. If you’re going to install solar to get the benefit you better do it soon and pray that they don’t somehow retroactively change the rules. SDGE and other power companies are going to cut net metering off at some point, but they may grandfather it in. They need somebody to pay for the capital intensive project of providing power when solar isn’t actually generating it. Whether that’s solar storage technologies or some other generating technology. Peak power in the most urban areas is about 5-9 PM and solar output from 5 to 9 PM is relatively low. You need to solve the problem of power demand times versus renewable supply times and it won’t be cheap or easy.

[phaster]

[quote=The-Shoveler]I am still hoping Skunkworks comes through on their fusion reactor (if it was anyone else but skunkworks I would not).

But that said, utility companies are starting to panic over rooftop solar (and companies like WalMart) cutting into their revenue.[/quote]

having some connections with individuals who worked on black projects associated w/ skunk works back in the day as well as having an interest in aviation designs like the SR71 and also being very interested in the subject of physics IMHO what was accomplished by “Kelly” Johnson

http://www.wvi.com/~sr71webmaster/kelly1.htm

IMHO aircraft/powerplant design is childs play compared to figuring out and building a working fusion reactor

the not so trivial problem with fusion, is understand and building a device that can contain very high temperatures

in the SR71 for example the device design needed to deal with temperatures something on the order of 3000 degrees max WHEREAS a controlled fusion reaction device needs to consider a device that has a reaction temperature something on the order of a million degrees!

not too long ago there was a news of a new german fusion rector that uses unique geometry (time to build a basic device about 20 years)

http://news.sciencemag.org/physics/2015/10/feature-bizarre-reactor-might-save-nuclear-fusion

NOW consider the geometry/time/effort of using CFD (computational fluid dynamics) to figure out the materials and shape of a turbine blade in a new GE engine high-by-pass turbofan (its taken about 20 years for design)

SO if skunk works can come up with a new small portable fusion reactor (and bring it to market) I’m guessing that would mean there really is some truth to aliens helping out our engineers at area 51

[ltsddd]

nice bounce in OIL this week.

[barnaby33]

You are trolling! I suppose it’s winter and you need a hobby.

Remember Peak Oil? A few years ago we were all told that oil prices, then over $100, would soon double and then double again, as the world’s supplies became exhausted.
Then along came fracking. Good old capitalism harnessed technology to again stymie the doomsayers. Now the US will become an energy exporter to the rest of the world. In some previous years we imported about half of our oil. Soon we will produce more energy than Saudi Arabia. Once again the market system comes through.

I remember Peak Oil, I remember it well. No serious proponent of it forgets that the core of the theory was merely extrapolating the curve of a well’s production life, can be used to predict when a given well or field of wells will become unproductive, in an economic sense.

So who said a few years ago that doubling and doubling again was the course of our future? Certainly not I. Nor anyone who’s analysis I’ve read.

Then came along fracking? Came along, really? It’s existed for years. It wasn’t economically viable and still isn’t unless you ignore all the externalities. Capitalism is REALLY good at ignoring externalities. I’d say the only reason we even have an EPA is because capitalism you love so much is great at ignoring externalities.

The US an energy exporter? Wow now you’re into troll country. It probably doesn’t look anything like those Marlboro ads, but bless yer heart fer tryin! Yes we export a lot of coal and we always have. That too, we are past the peak on, but that’s a totally different discussion. We aren’t in any danger of being a net oil exporter anytime soon and if we are it’s because holy shit our economy is collapsing. That’s one place in which capitalism does work, until it doesn’t. You know when we can no longer get energy cheap enough to heat our homes, we don’t rely on capitalism, we go to war.

Never mind that the entire global energy complex is only made possible by the largest socialist enterprise in American history, our military. It safeguards all of that energy we so capitalistically want.

So when I accuse you of trolling, I’m being quite accurate. Peak Oil is still with us, no super giant has been discovered or exploited since Cantarel and the cost of extracting most of the new discoveries is high enough that our globalized system can’t afford it. So to speak in Capitalistic terms. Energy cheap enough to maintain our status quo kills the energy companies. Energy expensive enough to generate a consistent profit for those companies, kills their consuming economies. That sir in a nutshell is Peak Oil and it is absolutely with us today.

Unless somebody gets a fusion reactor working we are going to keep living with declining EROEI. Symptoms may include temporary gluts of oil as economies collapse and temporary shortages as we all fight over the scraps at the table. Your mileage may vary.

Josh

[livinincali]

[quote=barnaby33]
Unless somebody gets a fusion reactor working we are going to keep living with declining EROEI. Symptoms may include temporary gluts of oil as economies collapse and temporary shortages as we all fight over the scraps at the table. Your mileage may vary.
[/quote]

A fission reactor specifically Thorium nuclear is probably the only realistic short term solution. You can always work on that for now until you possibly figure out a workable fission design. Every unit of GDP has a unit of energy behind it and if you don’t figure out something to handle base load power generation that isn’t fossil fuel we will likely have a a declining standard of living. I suppose it’s theoretically possible to cover a vast majority of the Mohave dessert with solar thermal plants and giant molten salt reservoirs to continue producing power in hours where there’s no sun. We could even get by with new traditional nuclear BWR and PWR’s uranium reactors but we ain’t going to replace and grow what we need with efficiency/conservation, wind, and solar panels. Unfortunately those that advocate for that don’t really have the scientific background to understand what they are saying.

[EconProf]

[quote=barnaby33]You are trolling! I suppose it’s winter and you need a hobby.
Wow. So many mistakes I don’t know where to start.
“Our economy is collapsing”. Really? It is muddling along at about 2%, which isn’t great, but is the envy of Europe, Japan, South America, etc.
“The core of the theory (of peak oil) was extrapolating the curve of a well’s production life.” No it wasn’t. It was the idea that the world will exhaust nature’s supply of easily obtainable oil such that prices will rise drastically, to way above existing prices (then over $100 per barrel). How is that working out?
“Peak oil is still with us.” Oil is now about $40 and many predict it will go to $20.
Fracking: “…its existed for years.” True enough. Fracking on a small scale has been around for many decades. But with the improved technology of the last few years, we can squeeze much more oil and gas out of weak sources such that fracking gives America at least ten times more oil and gas than a decade or so ago. That’s technology and the profit system at work for the good of the consumer.
I stand by the idea that America will become a net energy exporter, and I never said we would become a net oil exporter. But in the last week congress, in a bipartisan vote, ended the 40-year old ban on oil exports, so who knows?

Remember Peak Oil? A few years ago we were all told that oil prices, then over $100, would soon double and then double again, as the world’s supplies became exhausted.
Then along came fracking. Good old capitalism harnessed technology to again stymie the doomsayers. Now the US will become an energy exporter to the rest of the world. In some previous years we imported about half of our oil. Soon we will produce more energy than Saudi Arabia. Once again the market system comes through.

I remember Peak Oil, I remember it well. No serious proponent of it forgets that the core of the theory was merely extrapolating the curve of a well’s production life, can be used to predict when a given well or field of wells will become unproductive, in an economic sense.

So who said a few years ago that doubling and doubling again was the course of our future? Certainly not I. Nor anyone who’s analysis I’ve read.

Then came along fracking? Came along, really? It’s existed for years. It wasn’t economically viable and still isn’t unless you ignore all the externalities. Capitalism is REALLY good at ignoring externalities. I’d say the only reason we even have an EPA is because capitalism you love so much is great at ignoring externalities.

The US an energy exporter? Wow now you’re into troll country. It probably doesn’t look anything like those Marlboro ads, but bless yer heart fer tryin! Yes we export a lot of coal and we always have. That too, we are past the peak on, but that’s a totally different discussion. We aren’t in any danger of being a net oil exporter anytime soon and if we are it’s because holy shit our economy is collapsing. That’s one place in which capitalism does work, until it doesn’t. You know when we can no longer get energy cheap enough to heat our homes, we don’t rely on capitalism, we go to war.

Never mind that the entire global energy complex is only made possible by the largest socialist enterprise in American history, our military. It safeguards all of that energy we so capitalistically want.

So when I accuse you of trolling, I’m being quite accurate. Peak Oil is still with us, no super giant has been discovered or exploited since Cantarel and the cost of extracting most of the new discoveries is high enough that our globalized system can’t afford it. So to speak in Capitalistic terms. Energy cheap enough to maintain our status quo kills the energy companies. Energy expensive enough to generate a consistent profit for those companies, kills their consuming economies. That sir in a nutshell is Peak Oil and it is absolutely with us today.

Unless somebody gets a fusion reactor working we are going to keep living with declining EROEI. Symptoms may include temporary gluts of oil as economies collapse and temporary shortages as we all fight over the scraps at the table. Your mileage may vary.

Josh[/quote]

[EconProf]

Barnaby: Wow. So many mistakes I don’t know where to start.
“Our economy is collapsing”. We continue to muddle along at about 2% real growth per year, which is the envy of Europe, Japan, South America, etc.
“Peak oil is still with us…” And I suppose it always will be. The term was popular 2 – 4 years ago when oil was consistently above $100 per barrel. It is now around $40, and many say headed for $20. If that is peak oil, let’s have more of it.
“The core of the theory (of peak oil) was merely extrapolating the curve of a well’s production life.” No it wasn’t. It was the idea that accessing nature’s limited supply of oil will get increasingly expensive such that world oil prices will rise inexorably.
Fracking: “Its existed for years…” True enough. It existed, I believe, in the 1920’s. But in the last decade or two technology has enabled fracking to be so much more efficient that we can extract oil and gas from weak fields. Result: cheap oil and gas for the consumer thanks to technology and capitalism.
Yes, America is destined to be a net energy exporter. And no, I never said we would become a net oil exporter. But a week ago congress passed a bi-partisan bill revoking our 40-year ban on exporting oil, so who knows?

[FlyerInHi]

Econprof, I suppose if capitalism can do its magic for oil and energy, it should do its magic for other desired goods too.
So no hyperinflation or currency debasement, at least not for a top economy with a reserve currency.

I’ve watching things in the past 30 years. Products that were luxury eventually become widely available commodities. What is valuable is services to put those products to use.

Granite and marble were products of kings when the rock had to be chiseled and polished by hand. Now, thanks to innovation, we install it, replace it and throw it away by the tons.

Another example, everyone can by a large flatscreen tv. But installing it beautifully could easily cost several thousand $.

[spdrun]

In an ideal world, Congress would pass a law mandating the death penalty for the crime use of fossil fuels for ground transport after 2030. Sadly, we’re too stupid to do such a thing.

[EconProf]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Econprof, I suppose if capitalism can do its magic for oil and energy, it should do its magic for other desired goods too.
So no hyperinflation or currency debasement, at least not for a top economy with a reserve currency.

I’ve watching things in the past 30 years. Products that were luxury eventually become widely available commodities. What is valuable is services to put those products to use.

Granite and marble were products of kings when the rock had to be chiseled and polished by hand. Now, thanks to innovation, we install it, replace it and throw it away by the tons.

Another example, everyone can by a large flatscreen tv. But installing it beautifully could easily cost several thousand $.[/quote]
Yes, FIH, goods are getting increasingly cheap and of better quality, like your examples of flat screen TVs and granite, while services get expensive. Goods production can be automated and offshored. But services have a high labor content and are more difficult to automate and offshore (but not impossible).

[phaster]

[quote=spdrun]In an ideal world, Congress would pass a law mandating the death penalty for the crime use of fossil fuels for ground transport after 2030. Sadly, we’re too stupid to do such a thing.[/quote]

congress (like the communist party in china) is only interested in remaining in power, therefore there is no economic incentive to admit there own past/present corruption

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-29655466

and because various political whores are addicted to champaign contributions of special interests

https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/mems.php

sadly it might be too late…

[Author]

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