What is it with all the doomsday predictions

[patientrenter]

It’s way too early for a sustained rebound, esmith. We are just 2-3 years beyond the real estate peak, and the stock market was at a peak just a year ago.

But thanks for waking people up, even if only for a false alarm!

[kewp]

The bottom is when people give up.

When you mention ‘real estate’ and everyone leaves the room.

We are a *long* way from there. But it will happen.

[kewp]

The bottom is when people give up.

When you mention ‘real estate’ and everyone leaves the room.

We are a *long* way from there. But it will happen.

[kewp]

The bottom is when people give up.

When you mention ‘real estate’ and everyone leaves the room.

We are a *long* way from there. But it will happen.

[kewp]

The bottom is when people give up.

When you mention ‘real estate’ and everyone leaves the room.

We are a *long* way from there. But it will happen.

[kewp]

The bottom is when people give up.

When you mention ‘real estate’ and everyone leaves the room.

We are a *long* way from there. But it will happen.

[stockstradr]

OK, I’ll play.

I am fairly certain on these predictions:

* Within 12 months, unemployment exceeds 10% in CA
* ..and exceeds 8% average across America
* S&P500 drops to below 650 sometime in 2009
* During the next SEVEN years, inflation adjusted S&P500 does NOT exceed peak of Oct ’07
* Oil price exceeds $300/bbl within five years.
* Gold price exceeds $3000/ounce sometime within five years, and exceeds $1500/ounce within three yrs.
* At least two US automakers go bankrupt; cease operations, within two years.
* China’s stock market recovers much sooner (and more significantly) than US or Europe stock markets. However, the SSE Composite first craters below 1,500 (25% drop from present value!). (And I kind think it could fall to 1,000). Then it takes off like a rocket.
* Government intervention in real estate markets becomes so significant it creates a false rally of at least 10% on mean condo prices in San Diego within the next year.
* US dollar collapses by at least 50% from current highs relative to basket of major currencies, during the next five years. Over a ten-year period it collapses by at least 90% from today’s high. Deflating dollar will be the only option for USA to avoid defaulting on our debt payments.
* Within 36 months, we have US inflation AND 30-year mortgage rates both exceeding 12%
* Bubble in US Treasuries pops within twelve months, causing the 3-10 year US treasury funds to fall in value at least 30% off their peak values.

And now you learn just how pessimistic I am:
* Total US GDP contraction will exceed 8.0%, meaning worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Yes, my GDP contraction estimate is at least twice what many respected economists are estimating (4%).

I’m rather guessing on these predictions:
* S&P500 ends 2009 at value BELOW 900!
* This will be an “L-shaped” recession/depression, meaning we fall off the cliff (which has already happened) and our economy gets stuck “waist deep in the Big Muddy” for at least FIVE years, w/option for ten years, Japan-style lost decade.

[stockstradr]

OK, I’ll play.

I am fairly certain on these predictions:

* Within 12 months, unemployment exceeds 10% in CA
* ..and exceeds 8% average across America
* S&P500 drops to below 650 sometime in 2009
* During the next SEVEN years, inflation adjusted S&P500 does NOT exceed peak of Oct ’07
* Oil price exceeds $300/bbl within five years.
* Gold price exceeds $3000/ounce sometime within five years, and exceeds $1500/ounce within three yrs.
* At least two US automakers go bankrupt; cease operations, within two years.
* China’s stock market recovers much sooner (and more significantly) than US or Europe stock markets. However, the SSE Composite first craters below 1,500 (25% drop from present value!). (And I kind think it could fall to 1,000). Then it takes off like a rocket.
* Government intervention in real estate markets becomes so significant it creates a false rally of at least 10% on mean condo prices in San Diego within the next year.
* US dollar collapses by at least 50% from current highs relative to basket of major currencies, during the next five years. Over a ten-year period it collapses by at least 90% from today’s high. Deflating dollar will be the only option for USA to avoid defaulting on our debt payments.
* Within 36 months, we have US inflation AND 30-year mortgage rates both exceeding 12%
* Bubble in US Treasuries pops within twelve months, causing the 3-10 year US treasury funds to fall in value at least 30% off their peak values.

And now you learn just how pessimistic I am:
* Total US GDP contraction will exceed 8.0%, meaning worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Yes, my GDP contraction estimate is at least twice what many respected economists are estimating (4%).

I’m rather guessing on these predictions:
* S&P500 ends 2009 at value BELOW 900!
* This will be an “L-shaped” recession/depression, meaning we fall off the cliff (which has already happened) and our economy gets stuck “waist deep in the Big Muddy” for at least FIVE years, w/option for ten years, Japan-style lost decade.

[stockstradr]

OK, I’ll play.

I am fairly certain on these predictions:

* Within 12 months, unemployment exceeds 10% in CA
* ..and exceeds 8% average across America
* S&P500 drops to below 650 sometime in 2009
* During the next SEVEN years, inflation adjusted S&P500 does NOT exceed peak of Oct ’07
* Oil price exceeds $300/bbl within five years.
* Gold price exceeds $3000/ounce sometime within five years, and exceeds $1500/ounce within three yrs.
* At least two US automakers go bankrupt; cease operations, within two years.
* China’s stock market recovers much sooner (and more significantly) than US or Europe stock markets. However, the SSE Composite first craters below 1,500 (25% drop from present value!). (And I kind think it could fall to 1,000). Then it takes off like a rocket.
* Government intervention in real estate markets becomes so significant it creates a false rally of at least 10% on mean condo prices in San Diego within the next year.
* US dollar collapses by at least 50% from current highs relative to basket of major currencies, during the next five years. Over a ten-year period it collapses by at least 90% from today’s high. Deflating dollar will be the only option for USA to avoid defaulting on our debt payments.
* Within 36 months, we have US inflation AND 30-year mortgage rates both exceeding 12%
* Bubble in US Treasuries pops within twelve months, causing the 3-10 year US treasury funds to fall in value at least 30% off their peak values.

And now you learn just how pessimistic I am:
* Total US GDP contraction will exceed 8.0%, meaning worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Yes, my GDP contraction estimate is at least twice what many respected economists are estimating (4%).

I’m rather guessing on these predictions:
* S&P500 ends 2009 at value BELOW 900!
* This will be an “L-shaped” recession/depression, meaning we fall off the cliff (which has already happened) and our economy gets stuck “waist deep in the Big Muddy” for at least FIVE years, w/option for ten years, Japan-style lost decade.

[stockstradr]

OK, I’ll play.

I am fairly certain on these predictions:

* Within 12 months, unemployment exceeds 10% in CA
* ..and exceeds 8% average across America
* S&P500 drops to below 650 sometime in 2009
* During the next SEVEN years, inflation adjusted S&P500 does NOT exceed peak of Oct ’07
* Oil price exceeds $300/bbl within five years.
* Gold price exceeds $3000/ounce sometime within five years, and exceeds $1500/ounce within three yrs.
* At least two US automakers go bankrupt; cease operations, within two years.
* China’s stock market recovers much sooner (and more significantly) than US or Europe stock markets. However, the SSE Composite first craters below 1,500 (25% drop from present value!). (And I kind think it could fall to 1,000). Then it takes off like a rocket.
* Government intervention in real estate markets becomes so significant it creates a false rally of at least 10% on mean condo prices in San Diego within the next year.
* US dollar collapses by at least 50% from current highs relative to basket of major currencies, during the next five years. Over a ten-year period it collapses by at least 90% from today’s high. Deflating dollar will be the only option for USA to avoid defaulting on our debt payments.
* Within 36 months, we have US inflation AND 30-year mortgage rates both exceeding 12%
* Bubble in US Treasuries pops within twelve months, causing the 3-10 year US treasury funds to fall in value at least 30% off their peak values.

And now you learn just how pessimistic I am:
* Total US GDP contraction will exceed 8.0%, meaning worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Yes, my GDP contraction estimate is at least twice what many respected economists are estimating (4%).

I’m rather guessing on these predictions:
* S&P500 ends 2009 at value BELOW 900!
* This will be an “L-shaped” recession/depression, meaning we fall off the cliff (which has already happened) and our economy gets stuck “waist deep in the Big Muddy” for at least FIVE years, w/option for ten years, Japan-style lost decade.

[stockstradr]

OK, I’ll play.

I am fairly certain on these predictions:

* Within 12 months, unemployment exceeds 10% in CA
* ..and exceeds 8% average across America
* S&P500 drops to below 650 sometime in 2009
* During the next SEVEN years, inflation adjusted S&P500 does NOT exceed peak of Oct ’07
* Oil price exceeds $300/bbl within five years.
* Gold price exceeds $3000/ounce sometime within five years, and exceeds $1500/ounce within three yrs.
* At least two US automakers go bankrupt; cease operations, within two years.
* China’s stock market recovers much sooner (and more significantly) than US or Europe stock markets. However, the SSE Composite first craters below 1,500 (25% drop from present value!). (And I kind think it could fall to 1,000). Then it takes off like a rocket.
* Government intervention in real estate markets becomes so significant it creates a false rally of at least 10% on mean condo prices in San Diego within the next year.
* US dollar collapses by at least 50% from current highs relative to basket of major currencies, during the next five years. Over a ten-year period it collapses by at least 90% from today’s high. Deflating dollar will be the only option for USA to avoid defaulting on our debt payments.
* Within 36 months, we have US inflation AND 30-year mortgage rates both exceeding 12%
* Bubble in US Treasuries pops within twelve months, causing the 3-10 year US treasury funds to fall in value at least 30% off their peak values.

And now you learn just how pessimistic I am:
* Total US GDP contraction will exceed 8.0%, meaning worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Yes, my GDP contraction estimate is at least twice what many respected economists are estimating (4%).

I’m rather guessing on these predictions:
* S&P500 ends 2009 at value BELOW 900!
* This will be an “L-shaped” recession/depression, meaning we fall off the cliff (which has already happened) and our economy gets stuck “waist deep in the Big Muddy” for at least FIVE years, w/option for ten years, Japan-style lost decade.

[Eugene]

[quote=patientrenter]It’s way too early for a sustained rebound, esmith. We are just 2-3 years beyond the real estate peak, and the stock market was at a peak just a year ago. [/quote]

How long would you expect the bear market in equities to last?

2000 recession: 29 months (prolonged by inadequate government response and 9/11)
1991 recession: 3 months
1981 recession: 21 months
1973 recession: 21 months
1962 recession: 6 months

We’re 14 months into the bear market, I’d argue that the correction has been helped along by the collapse of Lehman. So, what could’ve been a slow decline ended up a V-shaped market crash.

[Eugene]

[quote=patientrenter]It’s way too early for a sustained rebound, esmith. We are just 2-3 years beyond the real estate peak, and the stock market was at a peak just a year ago. [/quote]

How long would you expect the bear market in equities to last?

2000 recession: 29 months (prolonged by inadequate government response and 9/11)
1991 recession: 3 months
1981 recession: 21 months
1973 recession: 21 months
1962 recession: 6 months

We’re 14 months into the bear market, I’d argue that the correction has been helped along by the collapse of Lehman. So, what could’ve been a slow decline ended up a V-shaped market crash.

[Eugene]

[quote=patientrenter]It’s way too early for a sustained rebound, esmith. We are just 2-3 years beyond the real estate peak, and the stock market was at a peak just a year ago. [/quote]

How long would you expect the bear market in equities to last?

2000 recession: 29 months (prolonged by inadequate government response and 9/11)
1991 recession: 3 months
1981 recession: 21 months
1973 recession: 21 months
1962 recession: 6 months

We’re 14 months into the bear market, I’d argue that the correction has been helped along by the collapse of Lehman. So, what could’ve been a slow decline ended up a V-shaped market crash.

[Eugene]

[quote=patientrenter]It’s way too early for a sustained rebound, esmith. We are just 2-3 years beyond the real estate peak, and the stock market was at a peak just a year ago. [/quote]

How long would you expect the bear market in equities to last?

2000 recession: 29 months (prolonged by inadequate government response and 9/11)
1991 recession: 3 months
1981 recession: 21 months
1973 recession: 21 months
1962 recession: 6 months

We’re 14 months into the bear market, I’d argue that the correction has been helped along by the collapse of Lehman. So, what could’ve been a slow decline ended up a V-shaped market crash.

[Author]

Posts