What is it with all the doomsday predictions

[Arraya]

I noticed Jim Cramer has, as of today, given up on doomerism and positively declared that we are not about to experience the Great Depression II. Of course, what this means is that we are, absolutely, positively about to experience the Second Great Depression. The only thing worse would be Bernanke or Paulson declaring that “our financial system is sound.”

[peterb]

Someone put up a compilation on youtube on Cramer. It showed him recommending buying a stock one week and then running it into the ground the next week. And it showed this for about a 3 weeks period where he did this multiple times with multiple stocks. Why anyone listens to this guy is a total mystery.

[peterb]

Someone put up a compilation on youtube on Cramer. It showed him recommending buying a stock one week and then running it into the ground the next week. And it showed this for about a 3 weeks period where he did this multiple times with multiple stocks. Why anyone listens to this guy is a total mystery.

[peterb]

Someone put up a compilation on youtube on Cramer. It showed him recommending buying a stock one week and then running it into the ground the next week. And it showed this for about a 3 weeks period where he did this multiple times with multiple stocks. Why anyone listens to this guy is a total mystery.

[peterb]

Someone put up a compilation on youtube on Cramer. It showed him recommending buying a stock one week and then running it into the ground the next week. And it showed this for about a 3 weeks period where he did this multiple times with multiple stocks. Why anyone listens to this guy is a total mystery.

[peterb]

Someone put up a compilation on youtube on Cramer. It showed him recommending buying a stock one week and then running it into the ground the next week. And it showed this for about a 3 weeks period where he did this multiple times with multiple stocks. Why anyone listens to this guy is a total mystery.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=stockstradr]OK, I’ll play.

I am fairly certain on these predictions:

* Within 12 months, unemployment exceeds 10% in CA
* ..and exceeds 8% average across America
* S&P500 drops to below 650 sometime in 2009
* During the next SEVEN years, inflation adjusted S&P500 does NOT exceed peak of Oct ’07
* Oil price exceeds $300/bbl within five years.
* Gold price exceeds $3000/ounce sometime within five years, and exceeds $1500/ounce within three yrs.
* At least two US automakers go bankrupt; cease operations, within two years.
* China’s stock market recovers much sooner (and more significantly) than US or Europe stock markets. However, the SSE Composite first craters below 1,500 (25% drop from present value!). (And I kind think it could fall to 1,000). Then it takes off like a rocket.
* Government intervention in real estate markets becomes so significant it creates a false rally of at least 10% on mean condo prices in San Diego within the next year.
* US dollar collapses by at least 50% from current highs relative to basket of major currencies, during the next five years. Over a ten-year period it collapses by at least 90% from today’s high. Deflating dollar will be the only option for USA to avoid defaulting on our debt payments.
* Within 36 months, we have US inflation AND 30-year mortgage rates both exceeding 12%
* Bubble in US Treasuries pops within twelve months, causing the 3-10 year US treasury funds to fall in value at least 30% off their peak values.

And now you learn just how pessimistic I am:
* Total US GDP contraction will exceed 8.0%, meaning worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Yes, my GDP contraction estimate is at least twice what many respected economists are estimating (4%).

I’m rather guessing on these predictions:
* S&P500 ends 2009 at value BELOW 900!
* This will be an “L-shaped” recession/depression, meaning we fall off the cliff (which has already happened) and our economy gets stuck “waist deep in the Big Muddy” for at least FIVE years, w/option for ten years, Japan-style lost decade.
[/quote]
I am curious if you could pull a few of the more major of these predictions and draw out the moving pieces that you see bringing them about.

Thank you.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=stockstradr]OK, I’ll play.

I am fairly certain on these predictions:

* Within 12 months, unemployment exceeds 10% in CA
* ..and exceeds 8% average across America
* S&P500 drops to below 650 sometime in 2009
* During the next SEVEN years, inflation adjusted S&P500 does NOT exceed peak of Oct ’07
* Oil price exceeds $300/bbl within five years.
* Gold price exceeds $3000/ounce sometime within five years, and exceeds $1500/ounce within three yrs.
* At least two US automakers go bankrupt; cease operations, within two years.
* China’s stock market recovers much sooner (and more significantly) than US or Europe stock markets. However, the SSE Composite first craters below 1,500 (25% drop from present value!). (And I kind think it could fall to 1,000). Then it takes off like a rocket.
* Government intervention in real estate markets becomes so significant it creates a false rally of at least 10% on mean condo prices in San Diego within the next year.
* US dollar collapses by at least 50% from current highs relative to basket of major currencies, during the next five years. Over a ten-year period it collapses by at least 90% from today’s high. Deflating dollar will be the only option for USA to avoid defaulting on our debt payments.
* Within 36 months, we have US inflation AND 30-year mortgage rates both exceeding 12%
* Bubble in US Treasuries pops within twelve months, causing the 3-10 year US treasury funds to fall in value at least 30% off their peak values.

And now you learn just how pessimistic I am:
* Total US GDP contraction will exceed 8.0%, meaning worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Yes, my GDP contraction estimate is at least twice what many respected economists are estimating (4%).

I’m rather guessing on these predictions:
* S&P500 ends 2009 at value BELOW 900!
* This will be an “L-shaped” recession/depression, meaning we fall off the cliff (which has already happened) and our economy gets stuck “waist deep in the Big Muddy” for at least FIVE years, w/option for ten years, Japan-style lost decade.
[/quote]
I am curious if you could pull a few of the more major of these predictions and draw out the moving pieces that you see bringing them about.

Thank you.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=stockstradr]OK, I’ll play.

I am fairly certain on these predictions:

* Within 12 months, unemployment exceeds 10% in CA
* ..and exceeds 8% average across America
* S&P500 drops to below 650 sometime in 2009
* During the next SEVEN years, inflation adjusted S&P500 does NOT exceed peak of Oct ’07
* Oil price exceeds $300/bbl within five years.
* Gold price exceeds $3000/ounce sometime within five years, and exceeds $1500/ounce within three yrs.
* At least two US automakers go bankrupt; cease operations, within two years.
* China’s stock market recovers much sooner (and more significantly) than US or Europe stock markets. However, the SSE Composite first craters below 1,500 (25% drop from present value!). (And I kind think it could fall to 1,000). Then it takes off like a rocket.
* Government intervention in real estate markets becomes so significant it creates a false rally of at least 10% on mean condo prices in San Diego within the next year.
* US dollar collapses by at least 50% from current highs relative to basket of major currencies, during the next five years. Over a ten-year period it collapses by at least 90% from today’s high. Deflating dollar will be the only option for USA to avoid defaulting on our debt payments.
* Within 36 months, we have US inflation AND 30-year mortgage rates both exceeding 12%
* Bubble in US Treasuries pops within twelve months, causing the 3-10 year US treasury funds to fall in value at least 30% off their peak values.

And now you learn just how pessimistic I am:
* Total US GDP contraction will exceed 8.0%, meaning worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Yes, my GDP contraction estimate is at least twice what many respected economists are estimating (4%).

I’m rather guessing on these predictions:
* S&P500 ends 2009 at value BELOW 900!
* This will be an “L-shaped” recession/depression, meaning we fall off the cliff (which has already happened) and our economy gets stuck “waist deep in the Big Muddy” for at least FIVE years, w/option for ten years, Japan-style lost decade.
[/quote]
I am curious if you could pull a few of the more major of these predictions and draw out the moving pieces that you see bringing them about.

Thank you.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=stockstradr]OK, I’ll play.

I am fairly certain on these predictions:

* Within 12 months, unemployment exceeds 10% in CA
* ..and exceeds 8% average across America
* S&P500 drops to below 650 sometime in 2009
* During the next SEVEN years, inflation adjusted S&P500 does NOT exceed peak of Oct ’07
* Oil price exceeds $300/bbl within five years.
* Gold price exceeds $3000/ounce sometime within five years, and exceeds $1500/ounce within three yrs.
* At least two US automakers go bankrupt; cease operations, within two years.
* China’s stock market recovers much sooner (and more significantly) than US or Europe stock markets. However, the SSE Composite first craters below 1,500 (25% drop from present value!). (And I kind think it could fall to 1,000). Then it takes off like a rocket.
* Government intervention in real estate markets becomes so significant it creates a false rally of at least 10% on mean condo prices in San Diego within the next year.
* US dollar collapses by at least 50% from current highs relative to basket of major currencies, during the next five years. Over a ten-year period it collapses by at least 90% from today’s high. Deflating dollar will be the only option for USA to avoid defaulting on our debt payments.
* Within 36 months, we have US inflation AND 30-year mortgage rates both exceeding 12%
* Bubble in US Treasuries pops within twelve months, causing the 3-10 year US treasury funds to fall in value at least 30% off their peak values.

And now you learn just how pessimistic I am:
* Total US GDP contraction will exceed 8.0%, meaning worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Yes, my GDP contraction estimate is at least twice what many respected economists are estimating (4%).

I’m rather guessing on these predictions:
* S&P500 ends 2009 at value BELOW 900!
* This will be an “L-shaped” recession/depression, meaning we fall off the cliff (which has already happened) and our economy gets stuck “waist deep in the Big Muddy” for at least FIVE years, w/option for ten years, Japan-style lost decade.
[/quote]
I am curious if you could pull a few of the more major of these predictions and draw out the moving pieces that you see bringing them about.

Thank you.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=stockstradr]OK, I’ll play.

I am fairly certain on these predictions:

* Within 12 months, unemployment exceeds 10% in CA
* ..and exceeds 8% average across America
* S&P500 drops to below 650 sometime in 2009
* During the next SEVEN years, inflation adjusted S&P500 does NOT exceed peak of Oct ’07
* Oil price exceeds $300/bbl within five years.
* Gold price exceeds $3000/ounce sometime within five years, and exceeds $1500/ounce within three yrs.
* At least two US automakers go bankrupt; cease operations, within two years.
* China’s stock market recovers much sooner (and more significantly) than US or Europe stock markets. However, the SSE Composite first craters below 1,500 (25% drop from present value!). (And I kind think it could fall to 1,000). Then it takes off like a rocket.
* Government intervention in real estate markets becomes so significant it creates a false rally of at least 10% on mean condo prices in San Diego within the next year.
* US dollar collapses by at least 50% from current highs relative to basket of major currencies, during the next five years. Over a ten-year period it collapses by at least 90% from today’s high. Deflating dollar will be the only option for USA to avoid defaulting on our debt payments.
* Within 36 months, we have US inflation AND 30-year mortgage rates both exceeding 12%
* Bubble in US Treasuries pops within twelve months, causing the 3-10 year US treasury funds to fall in value at least 30% off their peak values.

And now you learn just how pessimistic I am:
* Total US GDP contraction will exceed 8.0%, meaning worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Yes, my GDP contraction estimate is at least twice what many respected economists are estimating (4%).

I’m rather guessing on these predictions:
* S&P500 ends 2009 at value BELOW 900!
* This will be an “L-shaped” recession/depression, meaning we fall off the cliff (which has already happened) and our economy gets stuck “waist deep in the Big Muddy” for at least FIVE years, w/option for ten years, Japan-style lost decade.
[/quote]
I am curious if you could pull a few of the more major of these predictions and draw out the moving pieces that you see bringing them about.

Thank you.

[paramount]

The word around youtube is that the dollar has turned – on it’s way down.

The high was on November 21, it’s been heading down since that day as I understand.

[paramount]

The word around youtube is that the dollar has turned – on it’s way down.

The high was on November 21, it’s been heading down since that day as I understand.

[paramount]

The word around youtube is that the dollar has turned – on it’s way down.

The high was on November 21, it’s been heading down since that day as I understand.

[paramount]

The word around youtube is that the dollar has turned – on it’s way down.

The high was on November 21, it’s been heading down since that day as I understand.

[Author]

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