We are now within 5% of BOTTOM in for $600K and up SD RE market.

[Bugs]

True story.

There’s a 7-unit residential project that was built on an infil lot here in Carlsbad 92008. The homes are 3,500+ SqFt on 10,000 SqFt lots, a couple of which have peek views to the ocean, 1.5 miles to the west.

When they were first listed 18 months ago, the pricing went from $1.4mil to $1.6mil. A bit high, but not crazy high when considering the location. No takers. They had an agent onsite, open houses, etc, and apparently not one of them generated an offer. The builder reduced the pricing. Most recently they were listed at $1.2mil, still no offers. The most recent MLS listing expired at the beginning of the month.

I just drove by there this morning and saw a “for rent” sign out in front. I take that to mean that the builder can’t sell for less than the $1.2mil and is thinking they can outwait the market. I’m guessing these homes will continue to sit vacant until the construction lender takes them back and sells them for however much the market will actually bear at that time. I reckon that price will be below $1.0mil.

Across the street there is a new 7-unit medical office condo project that was just completed a couple months back. They’re quite nice. The developer started out asking $530/SqFt a year ago. The last time I looked they were $430/SqFt. Still no takers. I’m guessing they’ll have to come down another $100 before they scavenge buyers away from the Palomar Airport area, which is also struggling at this time.

Both of these 25% examples show that the pain train is marching down the coast and it will eventually reach the areas closer to employment in SD County. It’s all connected, which means it’s all just a matter of time.

[SD Realtor]

sdr

I didn’t want to say anything because I figured the board here will scorch us. Right now I have 7 purchase agreements submitted for 7 different clients. Some of them have a remote chance of acceptance, others have a greater chance. A few other clients besides those 7 are sitting on some purchase agreements at the moment and thinking of submitting. My listing in Olde Carlsbad went into escrow in 4 days.

I said it before and will say it again, it will not surprise me at all if we see a bump this spring.

Usual disclaimer – I am not saying this is a bull market or anything like that.

However those who think that all of the nice/desireable areas are cratering immediately will be disappointed. There may be a few heres and theres, but the nicer ones will not crater in the next few months for sure. Check back at the end of summer or winter.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

sdr

I didn’t want to say anything because I figured the board here will scorch us. Right now I have 7 purchase agreements submitted for 7 different clients. Some of them have a remote chance of acceptance, others have a greater chance. A few other clients besides those 7 are sitting on some purchase agreements at the moment and thinking of submitting. My listing in Olde Carlsbad went into escrow in 4 days.

I said it before and will say it again, it will not surprise me at all if we see a bump this spring.

Usual disclaimer – I am not saying this is a bull market or anything like that.

However those who think that all of the nice/desireable areas are cratering immediately will be disappointed. There may be a few heres and theres, but the nicer ones will not crater in the next few months for sure. Check back at the end of summer or winter.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

sdr

I didn’t want to say anything because I figured the board here will scorch us. Right now I have 7 purchase agreements submitted for 7 different clients. Some of them have a remote chance of acceptance, others have a greater chance. A few other clients besides those 7 are sitting on some purchase agreements at the moment and thinking of submitting. My listing in Olde Carlsbad went into escrow in 4 days.

I said it before and will say it again, it will not surprise me at all if we see a bump this spring.

Usual disclaimer – I am not saying this is a bull market or anything like that.

However those who think that all of the nice/desireable areas are cratering immediately will be disappointed. There may be a few heres and theres, but the nicer ones will not crater in the next few months for sure. Check back at the end of summer or winter.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

sdr

I didn’t want to say anything because I figured the board here will scorch us. Right now I have 7 purchase agreements submitted for 7 different clients. Some of them have a remote chance of acceptance, others have a greater chance. A few other clients besides those 7 are sitting on some purchase agreements at the moment and thinking of submitting. My listing in Olde Carlsbad went into escrow in 4 days.

I said it before and will say it again, it will not surprise me at all if we see a bump this spring.

Usual disclaimer – I am not saying this is a bull market or anything like that.

However those who think that all of the nice/desireable areas are cratering immediately will be disappointed. There may be a few heres and theres, but the nicer ones will not crater in the next few months for sure. Check back at the end of summer or winter.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

sdr

I didn’t want to say anything because I figured the board here will scorch us. Right now I have 7 purchase agreements submitted for 7 different clients. Some of them have a remote chance of acceptance, others have a greater chance. A few other clients besides those 7 are sitting on some purchase agreements at the moment and thinking of submitting. My listing in Olde Carlsbad went into escrow in 4 days.

I said it before and will say it again, it will not surprise me at all if we see a bump this spring.

Usual disclaimer – I am not saying this is a bull market or anything like that.

However those who think that all of the nice/desireable areas are cratering immediately will be disappointed. There may be a few heres and theres, but the nicer ones will not crater in the next few months for sure. Check back at the end of summer or winter.

SD Realtor

[Aecetia]

For SDR- Are you concerned at all about the stock market continuing to slide and the Fed. policies and politicians tinkering making it worse. I think this is one of those bounces…., but I am no expert, just an observer?

[Aecetia]

For SDR- Are you concerned at all about the stock market continuing to slide and the Fed. policies and politicians tinkering making it worse. I think this is one of those bounces…., but I am no expert, just an observer?

[Aecetia]

For SDR- Are you concerned at all about the stock market continuing to slide and the Fed. policies and politicians tinkering making it worse. I think this is one of those bounces…., but I am no expert, just an observer?

[Aecetia]

For SDR- Are you concerned at all about the stock market continuing to slide and the Fed. policies and politicians tinkering making it worse. I think this is one of those bounces…., but I am no expert, just an observer?

[Aecetia]

For SDR- Are you concerned at all about the stock market continuing to slide and the Fed. policies and politicians tinkering making it worse. I think this is one of those bounces…., but I am no expert, just an observer?

[schizo2buyORnot]

Ahhh . . . . one amendment to my original list to start this thread.

11a. The Fed raises conforming loan limits from 417K to up to 700K in California. This along with the interest rate cuts from the Fed may completely negate the credit cruch effects with respect to non-subprime, non-Alt A, loans for buyers of homes priced $600K+ (part of my original list) in nicer areas. Not needing a Jumbo is like a full 1% rate cut on the mortgages for these buyers, a huge stimulative plus.

More than even the bottom looks near for this category (nice SFH $600K+). No sharp rebound, no new highs for many years, but no more significant downside (less than 5%) from here for SFH in nice areas currently valued at $600K+. If this is your target market you should be carefully assessing your options.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

Ahhh . . . . one amendment to my original list to start this thread.

11a. The Fed raises conforming loan limits from 417K to up to 700K in California. This along with the interest rate cuts from the Fed may completely negate the credit cruch effects with respect to non-subprime, non-Alt A, loans for buyers of homes priced $600K+ (part of my original list) in nicer areas. Not needing a Jumbo is like a full 1% rate cut on the mortgages for these buyers, a huge stimulative plus.

More than even the bottom looks near for this category (nice SFH $600K+). No sharp rebound, no new highs for many years, but no more significant downside (less than 5%) from here for SFH in nice areas currently valued at $600K+. If this is your target market you should be carefully assessing your options.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

Ahhh . . . . one amendment to my original list to start this thread.

11a. The Fed raises conforming loan limits from 417K to up to 700K in California. This along with the interest rate cuts from the Fed may completely negate the credit cruch effects with respect to non-subprime, non-Alt A, loans for buyers of homes priced $600K+ (part of my original list) in nicer areas. Not needing a Jumbo is like a full 1% rate cut on the mortgages for these buyers, a huge stimulative plus.

More than even the bottom looks near for this category (nice SFH $600K+). No sharp rebound, no new highs for many years, but no more significant downside (less than 5%) from here for SFH in nice areas currently valued at $600K+. If this is your target market you should be carefully assessing your options.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

Ahhh . . . . one amendment to my original list to start this thread.

11a. The Fed raises conforming loan limits from 417K to up to 700K in California. This along with the interest rate cuts from the Fed may completely negate the credit cruch effects with respect to non-subprime, non-Alt A, loans for buyers of homes priced $600K+ (part of my original list) in nicer areas. Not needing a Jumbo is like a full 1% rate cut on the mortgages for these buyers, a huge stimulative plus.

More than even the bottom looks near for this category (nice SFH $600K+). No sharp rebound, no new highs for many years, but no more significant downside (less than 5%) from here for SFH in nice areas currently valued at $600K+. If this is your target market you should be carefully assessing your options.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[Author]

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