Thats my prediction . . . . (lets see what time tells).
The top 1/3 of the SD RE market or homes now priced at $600K and up is within 5% of bottom.(can use the new Case-Shiller data broken into 3rds for verification).
Reasons:
1. Fed is going to abandon dollar to save economy from recession and cut at least 1.5% more going forward (the first .50 to .75 will come this 1/30). This will lower mortgage rates even further.
2. Credit tightening has reached its peak. We will never see the easy money from before but credit tightness has backed off its most extreme as reason and analysis begin to take over from panic.
3. There is a lot of pent up demand . . . people renting or waiting. Like before a sense that equities is a bad place for your money will influence more $ to go towards RE (not a big influence but of some significance).
4. Prices have infact fallen 10-15% and the spring buying season is approaching.
5. Builders’ over building excesses have been drastically reduced and the pipeline of upcoming supply has been nearly cut off (not homes on the market now but the planning for homes to come on line in 12-18 months).
6. While a bottom is pending (if not passed). There will be no bullish rebound. I predict the market will be flat to maybe 3-5% gain at best this year and for at least 18-24 months to come.
7. Bottom is looming . . . don’t expect to make big gains from here however. The so called “go go” glory days of the past SD RE will likely never come back (i.e. 25%+ annual gains for 3-5 years).
8. I’ve been a Pig for more than a year. Posted a lot back 4-5 months ago and been lurking since then. I am now working with loan broker on financing and agressively looking to buy in the next 30 days (Scripps, Newer PQ, 4S Ranch).
9. For what is worth beginning with Vista/San Marcos and going north (Temecula and beyond) as well as I-8 south and beyond (Chula Vista etc.) is not included in above prediction. They may still have more to fall, maybe not, the crystal ball is just not that clear.
10. Found the crystal ball and it says to now is the time to buy (SD RE $600k+, 2500sq/ft+, in desirable markets (Scripps, 4S, etc.), within 20 min commute time of downtown.
11. I’m now on record. When I buy I will post details.
