Trustee deeds for January

[stansd]

I keep trying to do a little math here. My recollection is that sales are running at under 2,000/month for resale homes + condos.

If that’s the case, some other thoughts: The short sale monitor has 40% of inventory as short. I think there is double counting there, but even if it’s 20%, that’s over 3,000 short sale listings.

Then, assuming The NOD/NOT ratio continues to hold, we’ll have 2K NOT’s hitting inventory every month.

So, we are approaching the point at which the number of NOT’s going into the pipeline is higher than the number of sales coming out of the pipeline.

On the assumption that the banks are going to dump this stuff, we have some really massive pricing declines that are going to materialize this spring selling season.

Certainly many of the NOD’s and some of the shorts are one and the same, but my bet is that well over half the transactions in the next six months will be shorts + REO’s (wold love feedback from those more in the know here).

Qualitatively, I live in RB, and have seen 3 or 4 listings as short or REOS near where I live (these have been sporadic at best previously), and being priced aggressively (10-20% below comps). I’m also assuming that much of that NOD/NOT growth is the blob spreading beyond East County.

This is getting very interesting-low rates and rebate checks notwithstanding.

20% down in FY08 possible?

Stan

[Anonymous]

Stan,

Yes…that is just it. The inventory count is part of the problem too. (from my earlier post)

If the 1,285 Dec. Trustee’s Deeds reported by Innovest
http://www.foreclosureforum.com/stats.html

are counted in the 1,525 Dec. sales total by Sandicor.http://www.sandicor.com/statistics/stats2007/12statistics.html

Then in reality the current inventory of 20,000 homes is more like a jillion months inventory. Then, to your point, if that inventory is accelerating with more REOs than sales…..actual inventory moves to a ka-jillion months.

What’s going on exactly. Am i stoned?? Are the 1,285 Trustee’s deeds removed from the 1,525 sales before Sandicor reports? If so, then why does Redfin look so suspicious with many sales historys at 2-3years and 80% previous price sales…….

Somebody please help unscramble my brain for me…….
Anyway ya slice it, if you’re a price-tag, grab a parachute ’cause you’re already in free-fall.

Jasper

[Anonymous]

Stan,

Yes…that is just it. The inventory count is part of the problem too. (from my earlier post)

If the 1,285 Dec. Trustee’s Deeds reported by Innovest
http://www.foreclosureforum.com/stats.html

are counted in the 1,525 Dec. sales total by Sandicor.http://www.sandicor.com/statistics/stats2007/12statistics.html

Then in reality the current inventory of 20,000 homes is more like a jillion months inventory. Then, to your point, if that inventory is accelerating with more REOs than sales…..actual inventory moves to a ka-jillion months.

What’s going on exactly. Am i stoned?? Are the 1,285 Trustee’s deeds removed from the 1,525 sales before Sandicor reports? If so, then why does Redfin look so suspicious with many sales historys at 2-3years and 80% previous price sales…….

Somebody please help unscramble my brain for me…….
Anyway ya slice it, if you’re a price-tag, grab a parachute ’cause you’re already in free-fall.

Jasper

[Anonymous]

Stan,

Yes…that is just it. The inventory count is part of the problem too. (from my earlier post)

If the 1,285 Dec. Trustee’s Deeds reported by Innovest
http://www.foreclosureforum.com/stats.html

are counted in the 1,525 Dec. sales total by Sandicor.http://www.sandicor.com/statistics/stats2007/12statistics.html

Then in reality the current inventory of 20,000 homes is more like a jillion months inventory. Then, to your point, if that inventory is accelerating with more REOs than sales…..actual inventory moves to a ka-jillion months.

What’s going on exactly. Am i stoned?? Are the 1,285 Trustee’s deeds removed from the 1,525 sales before Sandicor reports? If so, then why does Redfin look so suspicious with many sales historys at 2-3years and 80% previous price sales…….

Somebody please help unscramble my brain for me…….
Anyway ya slice it, if you’re a price-tag, grab a parachute ’cause you’re already in free-fall.

Jasper

[Anonymous]

Stan,

Yes…that is just it. The inventory count is part of the problem too. (from my earlier post)

If the 1,285 Dec. Trustee’s Deeds reported by Innovest
http://www.foreclosureforum.com/stats.html

are counted in the 1,525 Dec. sales total by Sandicor.http://www.sandicor.com/statistics/stats2007/12statistics.html

Then in reality the current inventory of 20,000 homes is more like a jillion months inventory. Then, to your point, if that inventory is accelerating with more REOs than sales…..actual inventory moves to a ka-jillion months.

What’s going on exactly. Am i stoned?? Are the 1,285 Trustee’s deeds removed from the 1,525 sales before Sandicor reports? If so, then why does Redfin look so suspicious with many sales historys at 2-3years and 80% previous price sales…….

Somebody please help unscramble my brain for me…….
Anyway ya slice it, if you’re a price-tag, grab a parachute ’cause you’re already in free-fall.

Jasper

[Anonymous]

Stan,

Yes…that is just it. The inventory count is part of the problem too. (from my earlier post)

If the 1,285 Dec. Trustee’s Deeds reported by Innovest
http://www.foreclosureforum.com/stats.html

are counted in the 1,525 Dec. sales total by Sandicor.http://www.sandicor.com/statistics/stats2007/12statistics.html

Then in reality the current inventory of 20,000 homes is more like a jillion months inventory. Then, to your point, if that inventory is accelerating with more REOs than sales…..actual inventory moves to a ka-jillion months.

What’s going on exactly. Am i stoned?? Are the 1,285 Trustee’s deeds removed from the 1,525 sales before Sandicor reports? If so, then why does Redfin look so suspicious with many sales historys at 2-3years and 80% previous price sales…….

Somebody please help unscramble my brain for me…….
Anyway ya slice it, if you’re a price-tag, grab a parachute ’cause you’re already in free-fall.

Jasper

[Rich Toscano]

Hi Jasper — The Case-Shiller index does not include the “sale” when the lender takes over a foreclosed home. However, it does count the later sale of that home (as an REO) on the open market.

Same goes for the monthly data rodeo, including price/sqft, sales, and inventory, which are all based on MLS resales. The trustee sale won’t show up there, but an REO that is sold on the market will, assuming the latter goes thru the MLS.

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Hi Jasper — The Case-Shiller index does not include the “sale” when the lender takes over a foreclosed home. However, it does count the later sale of that home (as an REO) on the open market.

Same goes for the monthly data rodeo, including price/sqft, sales, and inventory, which are all based on MLS resales. The trustee sale won’t show up there, but an REO that is sold on the market will, assuming the latter goes thru the MLS.

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Hi Jasper — The Case-Shiller index does not include the “sale” when the lender takes over a foreclosed home. However, it does count the later sale of that home (as an REO) on the open market.

Same goes for the monthly data rodeo, including price/sqft, sales, and inventory, which are all based on MLS resales. The trustee sale won’t show up there, but an REO that is sold on the market will, assuming the latter goes thru the MLS.

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Hi Jasper — The Case-Shiller index does not include the “sale” when the lender takes over a foreclosed home. However, it does count the later sale of that home (as an REO) on the open market.

Same goes for the monthly data rodeo, including price/sqft, sales, and inventory, which are all based on MLS resales. The trustee sale won’t show up there, but an REO that is sold on the market will, assuming the latter goes thru the MLS.

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Hi Jasper — The Case-Shiller index does not include the “sale” when the lender takes over a foreclosed home. However, it does count the later sale of that home (as an REO) on the open market.

Same goes for the monthly data rodeo, including price/sqft, sales, and inventory, which are all based on MLS resales. The trustee sale won’t show up there, but an REO that is sold on the market will, assuming the latter goes thru the MLS.

Rich

[Fearful]

How blase we have all become.

3,300 is THREE TIMES the monthly record set in the early 90’s bust. Okay, so maybe it is not quite 3x; the one month peak was 1,313.

And it is a healthy jump from the December number, never mind the average of November and December – remember how we were debating whether the November dip surprised everyone, and the December number made up for the dip, making it average to the October number? And people said, well, if January comes in hot, we are on our way? Well, January came in hot. Here we go.

I feel like I have a ringside seat at some sort of gruesome circus. Just trying to make sure I do not get too much blood splattered on me.

[Fearful]

How blase we have all become.

3,300 is THREE TIMES the monthly record set in the early 90’s bust. Okay, so maybe it is not quite 3x; the one month peak was 1,313.

And it is a healthy jump from the December number, never mind the average of November and December – remember how we were debating whether the November dip surprised everyone, and the December number made up for the dip, making it average to the October number? And people said, well, if January comes in hot, we are on our way? Well, January came in hot. Here we go.

I feel like I have a ringside seat at some sort of gruesome circus. Just trying to make sure I do not get too much blood splattered on me.

[Fearful]

How blase we have all become.

3,300 is THREE TIMES the monthly record set in the early 90’s bust. Okay, so maybe it is not quite 3x; the one month peak was 1,313.

And it is a healthy jump from the December number, never mind the average of November and December – remember how we were debating whether the November dip surprised everyone, and the December number made up for the dip, making it average to the October number? And people said, well, if January comes in hot, we are on our way? Well, January came in hot. Here we go.

I feel like I have a ringside seat at some sort of gruesome circus. Just trying to make sure I do not get too much blood splattered on me.

[Fearful]

How blase we have all become.

3,300 is THREE TIMES the monthly record set in the early 90’s bust. Okay, so maybe it is not quite 3x; the one month peak was 1,313.

And it is a healthy jump from the December number, never mind the average of November and December – remember how we were debating whether the November dip surprised everyone, and the December number made up for the dip, making it average to the October number? And people said, well, if January comes in hot, we are on our way? Well, January came in hot. Here we go.

I feel like I have a ringside seat at some sort of gruesome circus. Just trying to make sure I do not get too much blood splattered on me.

[Author]

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