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SD Realtor.
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February 7, 2008 at 4:47 PM #11745February 7, 2008 at 8:48 PM #149556
robson
ParticipantMore new records, always exciting.
Well all I know is NOTs lag by 3-4 months and 4 months ago we had 2074 NODs and 3 months ago we had 2228. 1461 is what, about 2/3 of those numbers. That would about 2200 NOTs in 3-4 months. Yes, very exciting. And as prices continue to fall, I would expect this ratio to rise.February 7, 2008 at 8:48 PM #149814ParticipantMore new records, always exciting.
Well all I know is NOTs lag by 3-4 months and 4 months ago we had 2074 NODs and 3 months ago we had 2228. 1461 is what, about 2/3 of those numbers. That would about 2200 NOTs in 3-4 months. Yes, very exciting. And as prices continue to fall, I would expect this ratio to rise.February 7, 2008 at 8:48 PM #149825ParticipantMore new records, always exciting.
Well all I know is NOTs lag by 3-4 months and 4 months ago we had 2074 NODs and 3 months ago we had 2228. 1461 is what, about 2/3 of those numbers. That would about 2200 NOTs in 3-4 months. Yes, very exciting. And as prices continue to fall, I would expect this ratio to rise.February 7, 2008 at 8:48 PM #149840ParticipantMore new records, always exciting.
Well all I know is NOTs lag by 3-4 months and 4 months ago we had 2074 NODs and 3 months ago we had 2228. 1461 is what, about 2/3 of those numbers. That would about 2200 NOTs in 3-4 months. Yes, very exciting. And as prices continue to fall, I would expect this ratio to rise.February 7, 2008 at 8:48 PM #149913ParticipantMore new records, always exciting.
Well all I know is NOTs lag by 3-4 months and 4 months ago we had 2074 NODs and 3 months ago we had 2228. 1461 is what, about 2/3 of those numbers. That would about 2200 NOTs in 3-4 months. Yes, very exciting. And as prices continue to fall, I would expect this ratio to rise.February 7, 2008 at 9:11 PM #149565Anonymous
GuestOne general comment based on Rich’s well known, and rational, ‘must-sell’ inventory vs. sales totals (can someone help me with the answer? Someone here must know?)
I sold my PB house in late 2003 zip92109 and am looking to buy back in (much later from now). As i look through Redfin for ‘recent sales’ the sales history on several units looks suspiciously like REPO and REO. i.e.
Sold 2005 $500,000
Sold 2008 $400,000
The second sale is 2-3 years after and looks like the 80% LTV on a 100% financing deal (with the 2nd mortage going tits up). This is obviously important as REOs grow. Yes, the primary bank ‘buys’ the home for the value of the debt. But it is guaranteed to be a fasely high comp because no one else on the courthouse steps bid more, and there are always people there, with cash, and looking.
Are these REOs, auctions, and homes going back to the bank counted in the stats? Are they in Case Shiller? Are they in the Total Units Sold published by Sandicor and Dataquick?? If so. Holy $#!t In 92109 nothing is selling. Almost everything is REO.
If they are counted….it would definitely mean that prices are in absolute freefall. A bank taking back a 2005 home ‘worth’ $500,000 for $400,000 is no longer ‘worth’ $400,000. But the comps would say it was to someone…..that is much more than just misleading. Im sure the Realtor’s would conviently forget to mention this (if it is happening that way). If it is….how do we pitch Rich to write it up in the paper to keep prices falling back to ‘normal’?
Are 2/3s of the toal sales numbers just NOTs ??
Can someone help clear that up for me?Thanks to anyone who can help
Just trying to understand the numbers……Jasper
February 7, 2008 at 9:11 PM #149822GuestOne general comment based on Rich’s well known, and rational, ‘must-sell’ inventory vs. sales totals (can someone help me with the answer? Someone here must know?)
I sold my PB house in late 2003 zip92109 and am looking to buy back in (much later from now). As i look through Redfin for ‘recent sales’ the sales history on several units looks suspiciously like REPO and REO. i.e.
Sold 2005 $500,000
Sold 2008 $400,000
The second sale is 2-3 years after and looks like the 80% LTV on a 100% financing deal (with the 2nd mortage going tits up). This is obviously important as REOs grow. Yes, the primary bank ‘buys’ the home for the value of the debt. But it is guaranteed to be a fasely high comp because no one else on the courthouse steps bid more, and there are always people there, with cash, and looking.
Are these REOs, auctions, and homes going back to the bank counted in the stats? Are they in Case Shiller? Are they in the Total Units Sold published by Sandicor and Dataquick?? If so. Holy $#!t In 92109 nothing is selling. Almost everything is REO.
If they are counted….it would definitely mean that prices are in absolute freefall. A bank taking back a 2005 home ‘worth’ $500,000 for $400,000 is no longer ‘worth’ $400,000. But the comps would say it was to someone…..that is much more than just misleading. Im sure the Realtor’s would conviently forget to mention this (if it is happening that way). If it is….how do we pitch Rich to write it up in the paper to keep prices falling back to ‘normal’?
Are 2/3s of the toal sales numbers just NOTs ??
Can someone help clear that up for me?Thanks to anyone who can help
Just trying to understand the numbers……Jasper
February 7, 2008 at 9:11 PM #149835GuestOne general comment based on Rich’s well known, and rational, ‘must-sell’ inventory vs. sales totals (can someone help me with the answer? Someone here must know?)
I sold my PB house in late 2003 zip92109 and am looking to buy back in (much later from now). As i look through Redfin for ‘recent sales’ the sales history on several units looks suspiciously like REPO and REO. i.e.
Sold 2005 $500,000
Sold 2008 $400,000
The second sale is 2-3 years after and looks like the 80% LTV on a 100% financing deal (with the 2nd mortage going tits up). This is obviously important as REOs grow. Yes, the primary bank ‘buys’ the home for the value of the debt. But it is guaranteed to be a fasely high comp because no one else on the courthouse steps bid more, and there are always people there, with cash, and looking.
Are these REOs, auctions, and homes going back to the bank counted in the stats? Are they in Case Shiller? Are they in the Total Units Sold published by Sandicor and Dataquick?? If so. Holy $#!t In 92109 nothing is selling. Almost everything is REO.
If they are counted….it would definitely mean that prices are in absolute freefall. A bank taking back a 2005 home ‘worth’ $500,000 for $400,000 is no longer ‘worth’ $400,000. But the comps would say it was to someone…..that is much more than just misleading. Im sure the Realtor’s would conviently forget to mention this (if it is happening that way). If it is….how do we pitch Rich to write it up in the paper to keep prices falling back to ‘normal’?
Are 2/3s of the toal sales numbers just NOTs ??
Can someone help clear that up for me?Thanks to anyone who can help
Just trying to understand the numbers……Jasper
February 7, 2008 at 9:11 PM #149850GuestOne general comment based on Rich’s well known, and rational, ‘must-sell’ inventory vs. sales totals (can someone help me with the answer? Someone here must know?)
I sold my PB house in late 2003 zip92109 and am looking to buy back in (much later from now). As i look through Redfin for ‘recent sales’ the sales history on several units looks suspiciously like REPO and REO. i.e.
Sold 2005 $500,000
Sold 2008 $400,000
The second sale is 2-3 years after and looks like the 80% LTV on a 100% financing deal (with the 2nd mortage going tits up). This is obviously important as REOs grow. Yes, the primary bank ‘buys’ the home for the value of the debt. But it is guaranteed to be a fasely high comp because no one else on the courthouse steps bid more, and there are always people there, with cash, and looking.
Are these REOs, auctions, and homes going back to the bank counted in the stats? Are they in Case Shiller? Are they in the Total Units Sold published by Sandicor and Dataquick?? If so. Holy $#!t In 92109 nothing is selling. Almost everything is REO.
If they are counted….it would definitely mean that prices are in absolute freefall. A bank taking back a 2005 home ‘worth’ $500,000 for $400,000 is no longer ‘worth’ $400,000. But the comps would say it was to someone…..that is much more than just misleading. Im sure the Realtor’s would conviently forget to mention this (if it is happening that way). If it is….how do we pitch Rich to write it up in the paper to keep prices falling back to ‘normal’?
Are 2/3s of the toal sales numbers just NOTs ??
Can someone help clear that up for me?Thanks to anyone who can help
Just trying to understand the numbers……Jasper
February 7, 2008 at 9:11 PM #149924GuestOne general comment based on Rich’s well known, and rational, ‘must-sell’ inventory vs. sales totals (can someone help me with the answer? Someone here must know?)
I sold my PB house in late 2003 zip92109 and am looking to buy back in (much later from now). As i look through Redfin for ‘recent sales’ the sales history on several units looks suspiciously like REPO and REO. i.e.
Sold 2005 $500,000
Sold 2008 $400,000
The second sale is 2-3 years after and looks like the 80% LTV on a 100% financing deal (with the 2nd mortage going tits up). This is obviously important as REOs grow. Yes, the primary bank ‘buys’ the home for the value of the debt. But it is guaranteed to be a fasely high comp because no one else on the courthouse steps bid more, and there are always people there, with cash, and looking.
Are these REOs, auctions, and homes going back to the bank counted in the stats? Are they in Case Shiller? Are they in the Total Units Sold published by Sandicor and Dataquick?? If so. Holy $#!t In 92109 nothing is selling. Almost everything is REO.
If they are counted….it would definitely mean that prices are in absolute freefall. A bank taking back a 2005 home ‘worth’ $500,000 for $400,000 is no longer ‘worth’ $400,000. But the comps would say it was to someone…..that is much more than just misleading. Im sure the Realtor’s would conviently forget to mention this (if it is happening that way). If it is….how do we pitch Rich to write it up in the paper to keep prices falling back to ‘normal’?
Are 2/3s of the toal sales numbers just NOTs ??
Can someone help clear that up for me?Thanks to anyone who can help
Just trying to understand the numbers……Jasper
February 7, 2008 at 9:19 PM #149577stansd
ParticipantI keep trying to do a little math here. My recollection is that sales are running at under 2,000/month for resale homes + condos.
If that’s the case, some other thoughts: The short sale monitor has 40% of inventory as short. I think there is double counting there, but even if it’s 20%, that’s over 3,000 short sale listings.
Then, assuming The NOD/NOT ratio continues to hold, we’ll have 2K NOT’s hitting inventory every month.
So, we are approaching the point at which the number of NOT’s going into the pipeline is higher than the number of sales coming out of the pipeline.
On the assumption that the banks are going to dump this stuff, we have some really massive pricing declines that are going to materialize this spring selling season.
Certainly many of the NOD’s and some of the shorts are one and the same, but my bet is that well over half the transactions in the next six months will be shorts + REO’s (wold love feedback from those more in the know here).
Qualitatively, I live in RB, and have seen 3 or 4 listings as short or REOS near where I live (these have been sporadic at best previously), and being priced aggressively (10-20% below comps). I’m also assuming that much of that NOD/NOT growth is the blob spreading beyond East County.
This is getting very interesting-low rates and rebate checks notwithstanding.
20% down in FY08 possible?
Stan
February 7, 2008 at 9:19 PM #149834ParticipantI keep trying to do a little math here. My recollection is that sales are running at under 2,000/month for resale homes + condos.
If that’s the case, some other thoughts: The short sale monitor has 40% of inventory as short. I think there is double counting there, but even if it’s 20%, that’s over 3,000 short sale listings.
Then, assuming The NOD/NOT ratio continues to hold, we’ll have 2K NOT’s hitting inventory every month.
So, we are approaching the point at which the number of NOT’s going into the pipeline is higher than the number of sales coming out of the pipeline.
On the assumption that the banks are going to dump this stuff, we have some really massive pricing declines that are going to materialize this spring selling season.
Certainly many of the NOD’s and some of the shorts are one and the same, but my bet is that well over half the transactions in the next six months will be shorts + REO’s (wold love feedback from those more in the know here).
Qualitatively, I live in RB, and have seen 3 or 4 listings as short or REOS near where I live (these have been sporadic at best previously), and being priced aggressively (10-20% below comps). I’m also assuming that much of that NOD/NOT growth is the blob spreading beyond East County.
This is getting very interesting-low rates and rebate checks notwithstanding.
20% down in FY08 possible?
Stan
February 7, 2008 at 9:19 PM #149846ParticipantI keep trying to do a little math here. My recollection is that sales are running at under 2,000/month for resale homes + condos.
If that’s the case, some other thoughts: The short sale monitor has 40% of inventory as short. I think there is double counting there, but even if it’s 20%, that’s over 3,000 short sale listings.
Then, assuming The NOD/NOT ratio continues to hold, we’ll have 2K NOT’s hitting inventory every month.
So, we are approaching the point at which the number of NOT’s going into the pipeline is higher than the number of sales coming out of the pipeline.
On the assumption that the banks are going to dump this stuff, we have some really massive pricing declines that are going to materialize this spring selling season.
Certainly many of the NOD’s and some of the shorts are one and the same, but my bet is that well over half the transactions in the next six months will be shorts + REO’s (wold love feedback from those more in the know here).
Qualitatively, I live in RB, and have seen 3 or 4 listings as short or REOS near where I live (these have been sporadic at best previously), and being priced aggressively (10-20% below comps). I’m also assuming that much of that NOD/NOT growth is the blob spreading beyond East County.
This is getting very interesting-low rates and rebate checks notwithstanding.
20% down in FY08 possible?
Stan
February 7, 2008 at 9:19 PM #149863ParticipantI keep trying to do a little math here. My recollection is that sales are running at under 2,000/month for resale homes + condos.
If that’s the case, some other thoughts: The short sale monitor has 40% of inventory as short. I think there is double counting there, but even if it’s 20%, that’s over 3,000 short sale listings.
Then, assuming The NOD/NOT ratio continues to hold, we’ll have 2K NOT’s hitting inventory every month.
So, we are approaching the point at which the number of NOT’s going into the pipeline is higher than the number of sales coming out of the pipeline.
On the assumption that the banks are going to dump this stuff, we have some really massive pricing declines that are going to materialize this spring selling season.
Certainly many of the NOD’s and some of the shorts are one and the same, but my bet is that well over half the transactions in the next six months will be shorts + REO’s (wold love feedback from those more in the know here).
Qualitatively, I live in RB, and have seen 3 or 4 listings as short or REOS near where I live (these have been sporadic at best previously), and being priced aggressively (10-20% below comps). I’m also assuming that much of that NOD/NOT growth is the blob spreading beyond East County.
This is getting very interesting-low rates and rebate checks notwithstanding.
20% down in FY08 possible?
Stan
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