Time to buy the stock market?

[stockstradr]

Love this post on Jan 30, from esmith

History (by way of the markets) has responded by doing exactly the OPPOSITE of what he predicted. And that’s no surprise.

He recommended to BUY stocks, but stocks promptly fell (S&P500) by 10%

He recommended to NOT buy gold and gold miners. Gold responded by climbing from $900 to $980 per ounce.

He recommended to BUY the commodity miners that mine the bulk (not precious) materials. Those stocks have tanked.

He thought European stocks were better to buy. Wrong again.

He thought Asian stocks were a smart buy. So far he’s been right on that. (Even a broken clock tells time correctly at two moments each day.)

This is my post for this month. See you next month. I hope you are all short this stock market. If any of you are STILL stupid enough to long stocks in this market, I recommend you simply put your money in your kitchen oven and turn the dial to BROIL. Same effect on your money, but faster.

Here is esmiths’ post (01/30/2009) if you want to have a few laughs:

Wow, some really bad advice in this thread.

We’re 16 months into the recession and 15 months into the bear market. 3.8% annualized GDP decline on front pages of newspapers. Expectations of the worst recession since WW2 fully priced in to the stock market. Unimaginable P/E’s on every corner. Government fully committed to print as much money as necessary to turn things around (spending bills passing even despite every single republican voting against).

If you sell today, a year or two from now you’ll regret it. If you’re all-cash and you don’t go in today at least partially, you’ll regret it too. Buy miners (but not gold!), buy exporters, buy NASDAQ index funds.

Stay away from gold and gold miners. Anything is better than gold: forex, asian stocks, european stocks, even U.S. stocks. Remember about the ticking time bomb which is the 700 metric tons of gold in vaults of GLD, ready to rush into the market when the recession is officially over.

[peterb]

Wow. Contrarian indicator?
Gold does well in a credit implosion. But the miners really do well. Look what industry has now become the most profitable in the world….gold mining. It now tops the IBD list of highest earnings by industry. And will probably stay there for the duration of this global economic wreckage.

[peterb]

Wow. Contrarian indicator?
Gold does well in a credit implosion. But the miners really do well. Look what industry has now become the most profitable in the world….gold mining. It now tops the IBD list of highest earnings by industry. And will probably stay there for the duration of this global economic wreckage.

[peterb]

Wow. Contrarian indicator?
Gold does well in a credit implosion. But the miners really do well. Look what industry has now become the most profitable in the world….gold mining. It now tops the IBD list of highest earnings by industry. And will probably stay there for the duration of this global economic wreckage.

[peterb]

Wow. Contrarian indicator?
Gold does well in a credit implosion. But the miners really do well. Look what industry has now become the most profitable in the world….gold mining. It now tops the IBD list of highest earnings by industry. And will probably stay there for the duration of this global economic wreckage.

[peterb]

Wow. Contrarian indicator?
Gold does well in a credit implosion. But the miners really do well. Look what industry has now become the most profitable in the world….gold mining. It now tops the IBD list of highest earnings by industry. And will probably stay there for the duration of this global economic wreckage.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Suppose at 2pm today esmith says that it will get warmer over the next 6-7 months. Now suppose we check the temperature at midnight and note that it has decreased. Obviously he must be wrong and a contrarian indicator.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Suppose at 2pm today esmith says that it will get warmer over the next 6-7 months. Now suppose we check the temperature at midnight and note that it has decreased. Obviously he must be wrong and a contrarian indicator.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Suppose at 2pm today esmith says that it will get warmer over the next 6-7 months. Now suppose we check the temperature at midnight and note that it has decreased. Obviously he must be wrong and a contrarian indicator.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Suppose at 2pm today esmith says that it will get warmer over the next 6-7 months. Now suppose we check the temperature at midnight and note that it has decreased. Obviously he must be wrong and a contrarian indicator.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Suppose at 2pm today esmith says that it will get warmer over the next 6-7 months. Now suppose we check the temperature at midnight and note that it has decreased. Obviously he must be wrong and a contrarian indicator.

[TheBreeze]

Beware guys. I just bought some SLV (Silver ETF).

GET OUT NOW WHY YOU STILL CAN!

Actually, believe it or not, I got out of the original trade in the first post on the same day I posted this with a small gain. It was one of my few winning trades in the last year or so.

Unfortunately, the 100 shares of USO (oil ETF) I bought a few months ago at $50 is now under $24. Good thing I didn’t continue with my plan to dollar-cost average into 500 shares. That would have been bad.

My 401(k) is still getting schlammered. I had originally thought the DOW would only go down to 10K. Now it’s looking more like 5K. We may see the same 90% decline in the stock market that was seen in the Great Depression, but instead of happening in a year or so, it could take 10 years thanks to the political jokers in charge.

Some legendary investors have been creamed in this stock market: Jim Rogers (commodities have done worse than stocks), Warren Buffet (is he getting too old?), I’m sure many others.

I recently read the book Fooled by Randomness. The author makes some great points about how dollar-cost-averaging into the U.S. market was a winner, but dollar-cost-averaging into most other markets (Imperial Russia, etc) would have made a person broke. It’s really made me rethink my DCA strategy in my 401(k).

It was also interesting to read about all the traders who happened to hit upon successful strategies that would last a few years and then it seems like they would all end up blowing up in less than a week. BOOM! Outta’ the trading business.

I’ve picked up some other investing books recently. I plan to move to a much shorter-term strategy outside of my 401(k). I figure it’s better to take a small short-term gain (or loss) than a large long-term loss.

[TheBreeze]

Beware guys. I just bought some SLV (Silver ETF).

GET OUT NOW WHY YOU STILL CAN!

Actually, believe it or not, I got out of the original trade in the first post on the same day I posted this with a small gain. It was one of my few winning trades in the last year or so.

Unfortunately, the 100 shares of USO (oil ETF) I bought a few months ago at $50 is now under $24. Good thing I didn’t continue with my plan to dollar-cost average into 500 shares. That would have been bad.

My 401(k) is still getting schlammered. I had originally thought the DOW would only go down to 10K. Now it’s looking more like 5K. We may see the same 90% decline in the stock market that was seen in the Great Depression, but instead of happening in a year or so, it could take 10 years thanks to the political jokers in charge.

Some legendary investors have been creamed in this stock market: Jim Rogers (commodities have done worse than stocks), Warren Buffet (is he getting too old?), I’m sure many others.

I recently read the book Fooled by Randomness. The author makes some great points about how dollar-cost-averaging into the U.S. market was a winner, but dollar-cost-averaging into most other markets (Imperial Russia, etc) would have made a person broke. It’s really made me rethink my DCA strategy in my 401(k).

It was also interesting to read about all the traders who happened to hit upon successful strategies that would last a few years and then it seems like they would all end up blowing up in less than a week. BOOM! Outta’ the trading business.

I’ve picked up some other investing books recently. I plan to move to a much shorter-term strategy outside of my 401(k). I figure it’s better to take a small short-term gain (or loss) than a large long-term loss.

[TheBreeze]

Beware guys. I just bought some SLV (Silver ETF).

GET OUT NOW WHY YOU STILL CAN!

Actually, believe it or not, I got out of the original trade in the first post on the same day I posted this with a small gain. It was one of my few winning trades in the last year or so.

Unfortunately, the 100 shares of USO (oil ETF) I bought a few months ago at $50 is now under $24. Good thing I didn’t continue with my plan to dollar-cost average into 500 shares. That would have been bad.

My 401(k) is still getting schlammered. I had originally thought the DOW would only go down to 10K. Now it’s looking more like 5K. We may see the same 90% decline in the stock market that was seen in the Great Depression, but instead of happening in a year or so, it could take 10 years thanks to the political jokers in charge.

Some legendary investors have been creamed in this stock market: Jim Rogers (commodities have done worse than stocks), Warren Buffet (is he getting too old?), I’m sure many others.

I recently read the book Fooled by Randomness. The author makes some great points about how dollar-cost-averaging into the U.S. market was a winner, but dollar-cost-averaging into most other markets (Imperial Russia, etc) would have made a person broke. It’s really made me rethink my DCA strategy in my 401(k).

It was also interesting to read about all the traders who happened to hit upon successful strategies that would last a few years and then it seems like they would all end up blowing up in less than a week. BOOM! Outta’ the trading business.

I’ve picked up some other investing books recently. I plan to move to a much shorter-term strategy outside of my 401(k). I figure it’s better to take a small short-term gain (or loss) than a large long-term loss.

[TheBreeze]

Beware guys. I just bought some SLV (Silver ETF).

GET OUT NOW WHY YOU STILL CAN!

Actually, believe it or not, I got out of the original trade in the first post on the same day I posted this with a small gain. It was one of my few winning trades in the last year or so.

Unfortunately, the 100 shares of USO (oil ETF) I bought a few months ago at $50 is now under $24. Good thing I didn’t continue with my plan to dollar-cost average into 500 shares. That would have been bad.

My 401(k) is still getting schlammered. I had originally thought the DOW would only go down to 10K. Now it’s looking more like 5K. We may see the same 90% decline in the stock market that was seen in the Great Depression, but instead of happening in a year or so, it could take 10 years thanks to the political jokers in charge.

Some legendary investors have been creamed in this stock market: Jim Rogers (commodities have done worse than stocks), Warren Buffet (is he getting too old?), I’m sure many others.

I recently read the book Fooled by Randomness. The author makes some great points about how dollar-cost-averaging into the U.S. market was a winner, but dollar-cost-averaging into most other markets (Imperial Russia, etc) would have made a person broke. It’s really made me rethink my DCA strategy in my 401(k).

It was also interesting to read about all the traders who happened to hit upon successful strategies that would last a few years and then it seems like they would all end up blowing up in less than a week. BOOM! Outta’ the trading business.

I’ve picked up some other investing books recently. I plan to move to a much shorter-term strategy outside of my 401(k). I figure it’s better to take a small short-term gain (or loss) than a large long-term loss.

[Author]

Posts