Time to buy the stock market? – Page 2 – Piggington's Econo-Almanac

This topic has 340 replies, 18 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 2 months ago by afx114.

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January 23, 2009 at 11:19 AM #334525

stansd
Participant

I do finance for a fortune 100 company on a very big part of their portfolio and have a good window into the pulse of the world economy.

I’ve considered buying in as well, and may still. I can tell you, though, that the carnage is still ramping up. People will be astounded by both earnings and layoffs in the coming months. The holes have been put in the dike, but the dam will break.

Honestly, though, the U.S. is looking better than the rest of the world. Asia Pacific and Europe are looking really rough. Their stock markets have also taken a bigger beating, though, and the dollar is artificially inflated right now, so I’d say it’s a toss up-things may be priced in.

That’s a lot of context, but be very, very wary of looking at P/E’s right now forward or backward. They make things seem like a much better value than they actually are. Bankruptcies, layoffs, and defaults are just now hitting full steam.

I see this as binary. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the dow at 10K or 6K a year from now.

Stan

January 23, 2009 at 12:33 PM #334095

paramount
Participant

Even Money Market’s are loosing money…

January 23, 2009 at 12:33 PM #334428

paramount
Participant

Even Money Market’s are loosing money…

January 23, 2009 at 12:33 PM #334511

paramount
Participant

Even Money Market’s are loosing money…

January 23, 2009 at 12:33 PM #334539

paramount
Participant

Even Money Market’s are loosing money…

January 23, 2009 at 12:33 PM #334625

paramount
Participant

Even Money Market’s are loosing money…

January 23, 2009 at 1:45 PM #334159

Chris Scoreboard Johnston
Participant

the biggest reason that p/e’s are not good guages of value anymore is that they are based on corporate dishonesty as we have seen time and time again. There are much better ways of determining value than p/e’s, do some homework before investing based on them. Big picture I think we go much lower but bounces can come at any time due to how short term oversold we are. I would play them as a trade and not an investment if doing them. I am just selling rallies myself with my large accounts and using some shorter term strategies that I use in both directions in the smaller ones. I think we are headed under 6k maybe to 5500 or so before the low gets made. The new PPT team is trying to fight the downmove but even they do not have deep enough pockets, and it is too early to tell exactly what their strategy will be in futures. They have been active the last 2 days it appears.

January 23, 2009 at 1:45 PM #334492

Chris Scoreboard Johnston
Participant

the biggest reason that p/e’s are not good guages of value anymore is that they are based on corporate dishonesty as we have seen time and time again. There are much better ways of determining value than p/e’s, do some homework before investing based on them. Big picture I think we go much lower but bounces can come at any time due to how short term oversold we are. I would play them as a trade and not an investment if doing them. I am just selling rallies myself with my large accounts and using some shorter term strategies that I use in both directions in the smaller ones. I think we are headed under 6k maybe to 5500 or so before the low gets made. The new PPT team is trying to fight the downmove but even they do not have deep enough pockets, and it is too early to tell exactly what their strategy will be in futures. They have been active the last 2 days it appears.

January 23, 2009 at 1:45 PM #334576

Chris Scoreboard Johnston
Participant

the biggest reason that p/e’s are not good guages of value anymore is that they are based on corporate dishonesty as we have seen time and time again. There are much better ways of determining value than p/e’s, do some homework before investing based on them. Big picture I think we go much lower but bounces can come at any time due to how short term oversold we are. I would play them as a trade and not an investment if doing them. I am just selling rallies myself with my large accounts and using some shorter term strategies that I use in both directions in the smaller ones. I think we are headed under 6k maybe to 5500 or so before the low gets made. The new PPT team is trying to fight the downmove but even they do not have deep enough pockets, and it is too early to tell exactly what their strategy will be in futures. They have been active the last 2 days it appears.

January 23, 2009 at 1:45 PM #334603

Chris Scoreboard Johnston
Participant

the biggest reason that p/e’s are not good guages of value anymore is that they are based on corporate dishonesty as we have seen time and time again. There are much better ways of determining value than p/e’s, do some homework before investing based on them. Big picture I think we go much lower but bounces can come at any time due to how short term oversold we are. I would play them as a trade and not an investment if doing them. I am just selling rallies myself with my large accounts and using some shorter term strategies that I use in both directions in the smaller ones. I think we are headed under 6k maybe to 5500 or so before the low gets made. The new PPT team is trying to fight the downmove but even they do not have deep enough pockets, and it is too early to tell exactly what their strategy will be in futures. They have been active the last 2 days it appears.

January 23, 2009 at 1:45 PM #334688

Chris Scoreboard Johnston
Participant

the biggest reason that p/e’s are not good guages of value anymore is that they are based on corporate dishonesty as we have seen time and time again. There are much better ways of determining value than p/e’s, do some homework before investing based on them. Big picture I think we go much lower but bounces can come at any time due to how short term oversold we are. I would play them as a trade and not an investment if doing them. I am just selling rallies myself with my large accounts and using some shorter term strategies that I use in both directions in the smaller ones. I think we are headed under 6k maybe to 5500 or so before the low gets made. The new PPT team is trying to fight the downmove but even they do not have deep enough pockets, and it is too early to tell exactly what their strategy will be in futures. They have been active the last 2 days it appears.

January 23, 2009 at 1:58 PM #334164

sunny88
Participant

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]Now is a great time to be dollar cost averaging into the market. Many stocks are at P/E ratios not seen since Peter Lynch’s hey-day.

However, I am definitely not amping up my stock allocation or going “all in” or even in large chunks. Too many things can still go wrong to do that.

I don’t know if the stock market will pick up in 2009, 2010 or 2011, but I am betting that 10 years from now it will be largely higher than today.
[/quote]

I would be extremely careful with investing in stocks right now as a lot more bad news will be coming. Once people realize that the new administration will not be able to have a solution for a quick fix the stock market will take another dive. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dow goes down another 1,000 points before recovering.

January 23, 2009 at 1:58 PM #334497

sunny88
Participant

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]Now is a great time to be dollar cost averaging into the market. Many stocks are at P/E ratios not seen since Peter Lynch’s hey-day.

However, I am definitely not amping up my stock allocation or going “all in” or even in large chunks. Too many things can still go wrong to do that.

I don’t know if the stock market will pick up in 2009, 2010 or 2011, but I am betting that 10 years from now it will be largely higher than today.
[/quote]

I would be extremely careful with investing in stocks right now as a lot more bad news will be coming. Once people realize that the new administration will not be able to have a solution for a quick fix the stock market will take another dive. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dow goes down another 1,000 points before recovering.

January 23, 2009 at 1:58 PM #334581

sunny88
Participant

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]Now is a great time to be dollar cost averaging into the market. Many stocks are at P/E ratios not seen since Peter Lynch’s hey-day.

However, I am definitely not amping up my stock allocation or going “all in” or even in large chunks. Too many things can still go wrong to do that.

I don’t know if the stock market will pick up in 2009, 2010 or 2011, but I am betting that 10 years from now it will be largely higher than today.
[/quote]

I would be extremely careful with investing in stocks right now as a lot more bad news will be coming. Once people realize that the new administration will not be able to have a solution for a quick fix the stock market will take another dive. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dow goes down another 1,000 points before recovering.

January 23, 2009 at 1:58 PM #334608

sunny88
Participant

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]Now is a great time to be dollar cost averaging into the market. Many stocks are at P/E ratios not seen since Peter Lynch’s hey-day.

However, I am definitely not amping up my stock allocation or going “all in” or even in large chunks. Too many things can still go wrong to do that.

I don’t know if the stock market will pick up in 2009, 2010 or 2011, but I am betting that 10 years from now it will be largely higher than today.
[/quote]

I would be extremely careful with investing in stocks right now as a lot more bad news will be coming. Once people realize that the new administration will not be able to have a solution for a quick fix the stock market will take another dive. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dow goes down another 1,000 points before recovering.
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