- This topic has 300 replies, 19 voices, and was last updated 15 years ago by
Casca.
-
AuthorPosts
-
May 5, 2009 at 1:08 PM #393967May 5, 2009 at 10:17 PM #393453
carlsbadworker
Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook] Problem is, if you look at the Great Depression as an analogy, you’ll realize that 1930 (the year following the crash) actually looked very similar to 2009: Things seemed to be improving. The bottom really fell out in 1932, however, and most historians agree that the supposed “smart money” got obliterated in this period. Again, classic bear trap.
[/quote]It is not that simple with history. Yes, most smart money was wiped out in 1930. However, it so happens because in 1930 we encounter a severe drought that ravaged the entire agricultural business. So if the history were to repeat itself, we need the swine flu to become a real global pandemic.
I’m just saying that you are right: the risk is out there that something could trip the country into deep recession, as the economy is still fragile right now. But at the same time, it (the drought or the flu pandemic, and the consequent depression) does not necessarily happen.The other thing is that although TG has called the bottom, most investors (and most piggs) have not “all in” yet. So the “smart money” wouldn’t necessarily got obliterated this time around. They are ready to take advantage any sale should it happen. Just look at TG, he is now using only one week’s pay check to pay his PITI and saving much of the rest for investment right now. His bottom view may not prove to be correct, but he is positioned to take advantage of the lower price, if that happens.
In CA, unemployment is already 1/9 (and probably above 1/8 in Riverside). But we will need much more severe unemployment rate to disrupt the plan of investors like TG. But no one is predicting 25% unemployment rate yet…
If you want to be the first to predict 25% unemployment, at least try to figure out the sequence of events that will lead to it, instead of just saying “we’ll see the floodgates open”.
May 5, 2009 at 10:17 PM #393712Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook] Problem is, if you look at the Great Depression as an analogy, you’ll realize that 1930 (the year following the crash) actually looked very similar to 2009: Things seemed to be improving. The bottom really fell out in 1932, however, and most historians agree that the supposed “smart money” got obliterated in this period. Again, classic bear trap.
[/quote]It is not that simple with history. Yes, most smart money was wiped out in 1930. However, it so happens because in 1930 we encounter a severe drought that ravaged the entire agricultural business. So if the history were to repeat itself, we need the swine flu to become a real global pandemic.
I’m just saying that you are right: the risk is out there that something could trip the country into deep recession, as the economy is still fragile right now. But at the same time, it (the drought or the flu pandemic, and the consequent depression) does not necessarily happen.The other thing is that although TG has called the bottom, most investors (and most piggs) have not “all in” yet. So the “smart money” wouldn’t necessarily got obliterated this time around. They are ready to take advantage any sale should it happen. Just look at TG, he is now using only one week’s pay check to pay his PITI and saving much of the rest for investment right now. His bottom view may not prove to be correct, but he is positioned to take advantage of the lower price, if that happens.
In CA, unemployment is already 1/9 (and probably above 1/8 in Riverside). But we will need much more severe unemployment rate to disrupt the plan of investors like TG. But no one is predicting 25% unemployment rate yet…
If you want to be the first to predict 25% unemployment, at least try to figure out the sequence of events that will lead to it, instead of just saying “we’ll see the floodgates open”.
May 5, 2009 at 10:17 PM #393924Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook] Problem is, if you look at the Great Depression as an analogy, you’ll realize that 1930 (the year following the crash) actually looked very similar to 2009: Things seemed to be improving. The bottom really fell out in 1932, however, and most historians agree that the supposed “smart money” got obliterated in this period. Again, classic bear trap.
[/quote]It is not that simple with history. Yes, most smart money was wiped out in 1930. However, it so happens because in 1930 we encounter a severe drought that ravaged the entire agricultural business. So if the history were to repeat itself, we need the swine flu to become a real global pandemic.
I’m just saying that you are right: the risk is out there that something could trip the country into deep recession, as the economy is still fragile right now. But at the same time, it (the drought or the flu pandemic, and the consequent depression) does not necessarily happen.The other thing is that although TG has called the bottom, most investors (and most piggs) have not “all in” yet. So the “smart money” wouldn’t necessarily got obliterated this time around. They are ready to take advantage any sale should it happen. Just look at TG, he is now using only one week’s pay check to pay his PITI and saving much of the rest for investment right now. His bottom view may not prove to be correct, but he is positioned to take advantage of the lower price, if that happens.
In CA, unemployment is already 1/9 (and probably above 1/8 in Riverside). But we will need much more severe unemployment rate to disrupt the plan of investors like TG. But no one is predicting 25% unemployment rate yet…
If you want to be the first to predict 25% unemployment, at least try to figure out the sequence of events that will lead to it, instead of just saying “we’ll see the floodgates open”.
May 5, 2009 at 10:17 PM #393978Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook] Problem is, if you look at the Great Depression as an analogy, you’ll realize that 1930 (the year following the crash) actually looked very similar to 2009: Things seemed to be improving. The bottom really fell out in 1932, however, and most historians agree that the supposed “smart money” got obliterated in this period. Again, classic bear trap.
[/quote]It is not that simple with history. Yes, most smart money was wiped out in 1930. However, it so happens because in 1930 we encounter a severe drought that ravaged the entire agricultural business. So if the history were to repeat itself, we need the swine flu to become a real global pandemic.
I’m just saying that you are right: the risk is out there that something could trip the country into deep recession, as the economy is still fragile right now. But at the same time, it (the drought or the flu pandemic, and the consequent depression) does not necessarily happen.The other thing is that although TG has called the bottom, most investors (and most piggs) have not “all in” yet. So the “smart money” wouldn’t necessarily got obliterated this time around. They are ready to take advantage any sale should it happen. Just look at TG, he is now using only one week’s pay check to pay his PITI and saving much of the rest for investment right now. His bottom view may not prove to be correct, but he is positioned to take advantage of the lower price, if that happens.
In CA, unemployment is already 1/9 (and probably above 1/8 in Riverside). But we will need much more severe unemployment rate to disrupt the plan of investors like TG. But no one is predicting 25% unemployment rate yet…
If you want to be the first to predict 25% unemployment, at least try to figure out the sequence of events that will lead to it, instead of just saying “we’ll see the floodgates open”.
May 5, 2009 at 10:17 PM #394118Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook] Problem is, if you look at the Great Depression as an analogy, you’ll realize that 1930 (the year following the crash) actually looked very similar to 2009: Things seemed to be improving. The bottom really fell out in 1932, however, and most historians agree that the supposed “smart money” got obliterated in this period. Again, classic bear trap.
[/quote]It is not that simple with history. Yes, most smart money was wiped out in 1930. However, it so happens because in 1930 we encounter a severe drought that ravaged the entire agricultural business. So if the history were to repeat itself, we need the swine flu to become a real global pandemic.
I’m just saying that you are right: the risk is out there that something could trip the country into deep recession, as the economy is still fragile right now. But at the same time, it (the drought or the flu pandemic, and the consequent depression) does not necessarily happen.The other thing is that although TG has called the bottom, most investors (and most piggs) have not “all in” yet. So the “smart money” wouldn’t necessarily got obliterated this time around. They are ready to take advantage any sale should it happen. Just look at TG, he is now using only one week’s pay check to pay his PITI and saving much of the rest for investment right now. His bottom view may not prove to be correct, but he is positioned to take advantage of the lower price, if that happens.
In CA, unemployment is already 1/9 (and probably above 1/8 in Riverside). But we will need much more severe unemployment rate to disrupt the plan of investors like TG. But no one is predicting 25% unemployment rate yet…
If you want to be the first to predict 25% unemployment, at least try to figure out the sequence of events that will lead to it, instead of just saying “we’ll see the floodgates open”.
May 7, 2009 at 6:57 AM #394248CardiffBaseball
ParticipantToo many vegetarians in India to have any power type athletes. Yea-Yea-Yea I know it’s possible as 1 guy out there probably tries it. But I bet that guy eats the meat when nobody is looking.
Seriously if you work with any Indians you’ll see that many are slight. Still that doesn’t explain why don’t see more of them in the steeplechase. Or the 10k.
However the power sports (i.e. the USA’s biggest 3 sports) require a good deal of strength, 40-speed, etc. It’s hard to build the strength up for that on sprouts and eggplant sandwiches. It can be done but it’s not easy.
Having said that MLB is scouting India. I am pretty sure I remember reading that two guys were taken in the draft last year. Seems some of the cricket skills are transferable, namely that these guys might have 95+ MPH arms. With 1.1 Billion, and a ton of cricket players, it’s likely they can find some over there with the god-given flexibility and correct body sequencing to be able to throw a baseball that hard (I never could and pitched all the way through HS). I am not so sure the swing in cricket translates but maybe we’ll see that someday too.
May 7, 2009 at 6:57 AM #394506ParticipantToo many vegetarians in India to have any power type athletes. Yea-Yea-Yea I know it’s possible as 1 guy out there probably tries it. But I bet that guy eats the meat when nobody is looking.
Seriously if you work with any Indians you’ll see that many are slight. Still that doesn’t explain why don’t see more of them in the steeplechase. Or the 10k.
However the power sports (i.e. the USA’s biggest 3 sports) require a good deal of strength, 40-speed, etc. It’s hard to build the strength up for that on sprouts and eggplant sandwiches. It can be done but it’s not easy.
Having said that MLB is scouting India. I am pretty sure I remember reading that two guys were taken in the draft last year. Seems some of the cricket skills are transferable, namely that these guys might have 95+ MPH arms. With 1.1 Billion, and a ton of cricket players, it’s likely they can find some over there with the god-given flexibility and correct body sequencing to be able to throw a baseball that hard (I never could and pitched all the way through HS). I am not so sure the swing in cricket translates but maybe we’ll see that someday too.
May 7, 2009 at 6:57 AM #394724ParticipantToo many vegetarians in India to have any power type athletes. Yea-Yea-Yea I know it’s possible as 1 guy out there probably tries it. But I bet that guy eats the meat when nobody is looking.
Seriously if you work with any Indians you’ll see that many are slight. Still that doesn’t explain why don’t see more of them in the steeplechase. Or the 10k.
However the power sports (i.e. the USA’s biggest 3 sports) require a good deal of strength, 40-speed, etc. It’s hard to build the strength up for that on sprouts and eggplant sandwiches. It can be done but it’s not easy.
Having said that MLB is scouting India. I am pretty sure I remember reading that two guys were taken in the draft last year. Seems some of the cricket skills are transferable, namely that these guys might have 95+ MPH arms. With 1.1 Billion, and a ton of cricket players, it’s likely they can find some over there with the god-given flexibility and correct body sequencing to be able to throw a baseball that hard (I never could and pitched all the way through HS). I am not so sure the swing in cricket translates but maybe we’ll see that someday too.
May 7, 2009 at 6:57 AM #394776ParticipantToo many vegetarians in India to have any power type athletes. Yea-Yea-Yea I know it’s possible as 1 guy out there probably tries it. But I bet that guy eats the meat when nobody is looking.
Seriously if you work with any Indians you’ll see that many are slight. Still that doesn’t explain why don’t see more of them in the steeplechase. Or the 10k.
However the power sports (i.e. the USA’s biggest 3 sports) require a good deal of strength, 40-speed, etc. It’s hard to build the strength up for that on sprouts and eggplant sandwiches. It can be done but it’s not easy.
Having said that MLB is scouting India. I am pretty sure I remember reading that two guys were taken in the draft last year. Seems some of the cricket skills are transferable, namely that these guys might have 95+ MPH arms. With 1.1 Billion, and a ton of cricket players, it’s likely they can find some over there with the god-given flexibility and correct body sequencing to be able to throw a baseball that hard (I never could and pitched all the way through HS). I am not so sure the swing in cricket translates but maybe we’ll see that someday too.
May 7, 2009 at 6:57 AM #394917ParticipantToo many vegetarians in India to have any power type athletes. Yea-Yea-Yea I know it’s possible as 1 guy out there probably tries it. But I bet that guy eats the meat when nobody is looking.
Seriously if you work with any Indians you’ll see that many are slight. Still that doesn’t explain why don’t see more of them in the steeplechase. Or the 10k.
However the power sports (i.e. the USA’s biggest 3 sports) require a good deal of strength, 40-speed, etc. It’s hard to build the strength up for that on sprouts and eggplant sandwiches. It can be done but it’s not easy.
Having said that MLB is scouting India. I am pretty sure I remember reading that two guys were taken in the draft last year. Seems some of the cricket skills are transferable, namely that these guys might have 95+ MPH arms. With 1.1 Billion, and a ton of cricket players, it’s likely they can find some over there with the god-given flexibility and correct body sequencing to be able to throw a baseball that hard (I never could and pitched all the way through HS). I am not so sure the swing in cricket translates but maybe we’ll see that someday too.
May 7, 2009 at 12:14 PM #394470Casca
Participant[quote=CONCHO]The more curious question I have is…With a population of 1.1 billion, how come we don’t see more athletes from India?
There are lots of athletes from India. Ever heard of a little game called cricket?[/quote]
Do they bleed in cricket? No blood = No sport.
May 7, 2009 at 12:14 PM #394725Participant[quote=CONCHO]The more curious question I have is…With a population of 1.1 billion, how come we don’t see more athletes from India?
There are lots of athletes from India. Ever heard of a little game called cricket?[/quote]
Do they bleed in cricket? No blood = No sport.
May 7, 2009 at 12:14 PM #394944Participant[quote=CONCHO]The more curious question I have is…With a population of 1.1 billion, how come we don’t see more athletes from India?
There are lots of athletes from India. Ever heard of a little game called cricket?[/quote]
Do they bleed in cricket? No blood = No sport.
May 7, 2009 at 12:14 PM #394996Participant[quote=CONCHO]The more curious question I have is…With a population of 1.1 billion, how come we don’t see more athletes from India?
There are lots of athletes from India. Ever heard of a little game called cricket?[/quote]
Do they bleed in cricket? No blood = No sport.
-
AuthorPosts
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.