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The-Shoveler.
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January 23, 2013 at 1:24 PM #758362January 23, 2013 at 1:36 PM #758366
SD Transplant
Participanthere they come…..the robots
January 23, 2013 at 1:42 PM #758367
CoronitaParticipant[quote=desmond]There are some jobs that can never be replaced:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=uPq7jVGPs3g%5B/quote%5D
Meh… The mercedes is a so-so car….
I like the vette better.
You were talking about the car, right? 🙂
January 23, 2013 at 1:43 PM #758368no_such_reality
Participant[quote=flu]
I disagree. Ideas are a dime a dozen. The how (execution) is what always trips people/companies up…[/quote]The execution again, isn’t creativity. It’s execution. People and companies trip up in the execution for a wide variety of reasons. Being a bad idea is just one of them. People being fickle, inept, disinterested, unmotivated, are more. Sick, just a mistake, or just flat out failing are others.
Think FedEx. The idea was item, the execution is paramount, but the execution wasn’t the creativity. And increasingly, with plug and play components, the execution is becoming a commodity.
There will always be jobs for those making those items, or improving them, but increasingly, we’ll see an ever greater shift towards people that can leverage abstract factory patterns with plug-and-play components.
It may be 10 years out. Maybe 20. But think of how many people you work with are really just doing stupid language tricks.
January 23, 2013 at 1:51 PM #758369CoronitaParticipant[quote=no_such_reality]
It may be 10 years out. Maybe 20. But think of how many people you work with are really just doing stupid language tricks.[/quote]
I would say a lot of them 🙂
Meh.. I don’t care. I’m out the workforce by then.
January 23, 2013 at 2:05 PM #758370Participant[quote=flu][quote=no_such_reality]
It may be 10 years out. Maybe 20. But think of how many people you work with are really just doing stupid language tricks.[/quote]
I would say a lot of them 🙂
Meh.. I don’t care. I’m out the workforce by then.[/quote]
Hopefully me too. But I’m thinking about your kid, and my 2 year old.
IBM: $106B in revenue, 440,000 employees and falling.
Google: $38B in revenue, 53,000 employees
Valve: $2.5B in revenue, 400 employees…The Valve new employee handbook is quite interesting. I wonder how many will be able to adapt to it?
Now let’s translate. If we grow our economy to $20 Trillion and we continue to produce like IBM, we need 83M workers ($20T/$106B)*440K
Like Google and we need 28 million workers.
Like valve and we need 3.2 million workers…
January 23, 2013 at 2:07 PM #758371livinincali
Participant[quote=desmond]Yes, flu the smart people will do fine, but, you need a strong and large middle class to pay for everything that has been promised. If not, you will will see a faster detrioration in the way we all live.[/quote]
Perhaps those promises just aren’t a mathematically reality. Retirement for the masses is a relatively new concept that was based on a population explosion that resulted from major gains in technology and transportation. Maybe working until you die doing something (whether it’s producing goods or providing services) is the sustainable equilibrium point. It’s been that way for decades prior to the 1950’s-1960’s.
Maybe retirement is something reserved from the select few (the top 20% or so). Whether you subscribe to the capitalist approach (you can retire if you have the most wealth) or a socialist approach in which is based on some moral/social structure (the oldest, the neediest, lottery, favored class by the leaders).
January 23, 2013 at 2:19 PM #758374an
Participant[quote=no_such_reality][quote=flu][quote=no_such_reality]
It may be 10 years out. Maybe 20. But think of how many people you work with are really just doing stupid language tricks.[/quote]
I would say a lot of them 🙂
Meh.. I don’t care. I’m out the workforce by then.[/quote]
Hopefully me too. But I’m thinking about your kid, and my 2 year old.[/quote]You’re bumming me out man. I too hope to be out of the workforce in 20 years, I’m hoping my kids will have more opportunities than I did. I’m an optimist, so I think that will happen :-). Or at least I hope it’ll happen.
January 23, 2013 at 2:40 PM #758376ParticipantAN, ironically, I think the current kid’s generation, the second half of Generation Y and the current post 2000 born children will be fine.
As much as they get dissed, they oddly, have been conditioned by technology to adapt, plagiarize and use.
I foresee more and more business shifting to ‘small business’ even though their revenues may be in the tens of millions or billions, like Valve.
When you look at Google, or Amazon and the ability to stand up so much professional business enterprise class functions by yourself just out of their app marketplaces and oddly, combine it with the mindset displayed in “The Four Hour Work Week”, the kids get it.
They’re used to thinking, I need an app to do X. And that app to do X is steadily approaching 99 cents.
January 23, 2013 at 2:56 PM #758377Participant[quote=no_such_reality]AN, ironically, I think the current kid’s generation, the second half of Generation Y and the current post 2000 born children will be fine.
As much as they get dissed, they oddly, have been conditioned by technology to adapt, plagiarize and use.
I foresee more and more business shifting to ‘small business’ even though their revenues may be in the tens of millions or billions, like Valve.
When you look at Google, or Amazon and the ability to stand up so much professional business enterprise class functions by yourself just out of their app marketplaces and oddly, combine it with the mindset displayed in “The Four Hour Work Week”, the kids get it.
They’re used to thinking, I need an app to do X. And that app to do X is steadily approaching 99 cents.[/quote]
I think they will have to adapt or die just like us. The smart one, the ingenious one, the hard working one will be fine, just like us. You just can’t be lazy and depend on other to hand you your opportunity anymore.January 23, 2013 at 3:21 PM #758379bobby
Participant[quote=AN]
I think they will have to adapt or die just like us. The smart one, the ingenious one, the hard working one will be fine, just like us. You just can’t be lazy and depend on other to hand you your opportunity anymore.[/quote]not trying to make this political but with the entitlement mentality, I think those who don’t really want to work will also be just fine. No they won’t be as well off as those who are smart and industrious; but they won’t be homeless or starving. All they need is to vote for a policy that allows some redistribution of wealth.
(again, not debating the morality of this policy – just stating the belief that the social safety net and the current expectation will allow those who don’t do much to be OK).January 23, 2013 at 3:48 PM #758380The-Shoveler
Participant[quote=bobby][quote=AN]
I think they will have to adapt or die just like us. The smart one, the ingenious one, the hard working one will be fine, just like us. You just can’t be lazy and depend on other to hand you your opportunity anymore.[/quote]not trying to make this political but with the entitlement mentality, I think those who don’t really want to work will also be just fine. No they won’t be as well off as those who are smart and industrious; but they won’t be homeless or starving. All they need is to vote for a policy that allows some redistribution of wealth.
(again, not debating the morality of this policy – just stating the belief that the social safety net and the current expectation will allow those who don’t do much to be OK).[/quote]Bing!! bing!!
I think you hit it. It is unlikely they will be living large though, just OK.
Someone has to buy the stuff as well.
the 15% can’t just sell to the 15%.
With a little luck maybe we will get some works projects, like trains and better public transport.
You should see the projects they have going in China, it is very disappointing in some ways coming back home and seeing virtually nothing going on.
The money printing has just begun folks.
Really do you just think it would be like Mad Max or something?
January 24, 2013 at 1:56 AM #758406CA renter
Participant[quote=flu]Side jobs are created from change and engineering. Adapt or die. It’s that simple.
You’ll still need attorneys, accountants, people in marketing, sales, etc. It’s not really going to be any different.[/quote]
-Attorneys: A lot of legal information can now be found online, as can the forms that people can use to represent themselves. The legal profession has been severely hit over the past few years.
http://legalcareers.about.com/od/careertrends/tp/10-Trends-Reshaping-The-Legal-Industry.htm
-Accountants: Technology is drastically changing the way people use accountants as software can now do in a few hours what many accountants had to physically spend weeks/months/years doing. Companies can also outsource a lot of the work to low-wage countries.
See page 12 from this presentation:
-Marketing/Sales: The travel industry has already been hammered by technology, and the real estate industry has been taking a beating as well. The entertainment industry (a.k.a.: biggest player in the marketing) has been hard hit by large, medium, and small-time competition that was often made possible by technology and outsourcing. And we all know how they’ve been very negatively affected by the internet.
Anyone who thinks they are going to come out of this unscathed — no matter how smart or how driven they are — is deluding him/herself.
January 24, 2013 at 2:37 AM #758407Participant[quote=AN][quote=no_such_reality]AN, ironically, I think the current kid’s generation, the second half of Generation Y and the current post 2000 born children will be fine.
As much as they get dissed, they oddly, have been conditioned by technology to adapt, plagiarize and use.
I foresee more and more business shifting to ‘small business’ even though their revenues may be in the tens of millions or billions, like Valve.
When you look at Google, or Amazon and the ability to stand up so much professional business enterprise class functions by yourself just out of their app marketplaces and oddly, combine it with the mindset displayed in “The Four Hour Work Week”, the kids get it.
They’re used to thinking, I need an app to do X. And that app to do X is steadily approaching 99 cents.[/quote]
I think they will have to adapt or die just like us. The smart one, the ingenious one, the hard working one will be fine, just like us. You just can’t be lazy and depend on other to hand you your opportunity anymore.[/quote]AN,
You keep referring to people who are not “like you” as lazy. Has it ever occurred to you that they might be harder-working, and even smarter than you? Some of the hardest workers are often the poorest, and I can show you many, many people with Ph.D.’s (even with your much-loved STEM degrees) who don’t even make $100K after decades on the job as a successful and proven employee.
BTW, you need to acknowledge the weakness of your STEM degree and start reading a few history/sociology/political science books. Those who are what you call “lazy” will not die, though they will adapt in a way that you will not like at all. They will kill those who they perceive to be impoverishing them and taking away their opportunities. It has always been that way. You cannot impoverish the majority of the population for the benefit of the few without some very negative effects, and God help you if you maintain the arrogant attitude that you are somehow better than they are, or “deserve” wealth and opportunity more than they do.
January 24, 2013 at 4:44 AM #758410CoronitaParticipant[quote=CA renter][quote=flu]Side jobs are created from change and engineering. Adapt or die. It’s that simple.
You’ll still need attorneys, accountants, people in marketing, sales, etc. It’s not really going to be any different.[/quote]
-Attorneys: A lot of legal information can now be found online, as can the forms that people can use to represent themselves. The legal profession has been severely hit over the past few years.
http://legalcareers.about.com/od/careertrends/tp/10-Trends-Reshaping-The-Legal-Industry.htm
-Accountants: Technology is drastically changing the way people use accountants as software can now do in a few hours what many accountants had to physically spend weeks/months/years doing. Companies can also outsource a lot of the work to low-wage countries.
See page 12 from this presentation:
-Marketing/Sales: The travel industry has already been hammered by technology, and the real estate industry has been taking a beating as well. The entertainment industry (a.k.a.: biggest player in the marketing) has been hard hit by large, medium, and small-time competition that was often made possible by technology and outsourcing. And we all know how they’ve been very negatively affected by the internet.
Anyone who thinks they are going to come out of this unscathed — no matter how smart or how driven they are — is deluding him/herself.[/quote]
Not really. Only people who give up or havent been building wealth and living paycheck to paycheck or people who have serious learned helplessness loser mentality. In everything. There are winners and there are losers. People definitely lose by doing nothing.
Obviously people never worked in said areas always oversimplify what they don’t know about. Sitting down with a CPA anbd done anything slightly more involved was an eye opener how complex the us tax rules are and how dynamically they change and being that at some time I’ve worked at turbo tax the issue isnt about the mechanism of punching in numbers but by the sheer ideas how and what to claim for anything.But I love people who give up before trying… Because I don’t see them as competitive peers. They aren’t there competing for top paying jobs. And they aren’t there competing for investment opportunities. And chances are neither will their kids be since they’ve also given up early.
If people want to have loser mentality all the time…or continuously just giving feel good trophies for “best effort awards” instead of actual results… Not much you can do about it.
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