The Market is Going to Zero Syndrome

[Allan from Fallbrook]

raptorduck: Well, geez, who wouldn’t? I love Los Altos and LAH, as well as Palo Alto Hills (near the country club).

I went to Saint Francis in Mountain View (off of Miramonte) and spent a considerable amount of time in Los Altos and LAH.

[nostradamus]

Raptorduck, I envy your financial position but what’s wrong with renting for a while in an area you like before making such a huge purchase? You know the market isn’t going up anytime soon, right? You KNOW this! So rent something like this in Rancho Santa Fe or something in Del Mar or La Jolla and sit on it for a year.

Some people are predicting 30% drops in prices, some even more. Let’s say you rent a rock-star home for $10k a month for one year. That’s $120k spent. On the other hand let’s say you bought the $3M (which is the low end of your “sweet spot”) home and the market goes down just 10%. You’ve lost $300k plus $30k in taxes plus all the other fees. Are you willing to unnecessarily pay $210k+ just to say “I own”? That’s what you’ll be doing in this down market.

There’s always buyer’s remorse. At least if you rent in an area for a while you’ll know it so well that once you buy there will be little remorse.

Now tell me, how did you make your millions??? If it’s true that you have all this money then you must have some sort of financial savvy and I can’t understand why you’d be considering buying in this down market. Is there something you know that us sub-multi-millionaires don’t? I’m not poor but I definitely have an appreciation for every dollar I make and wouldn’t consider throwing any away but it seems like this is something you’re ok with.

[nostradamus]

Raptorduck, I envy your financial position but what’s wrong with renting for a while in an area you like before making such a huge purchase? You know the market isn’t going up anytime soon, right? You KNOW this! So rent something like this in Rancho Santa Fe or something in Del Mar or La Jolla and sit on it for a year.

Some people are predicting 30% drops in prices, some even more. Let’s say you rent a rock-star home for $10k a month for one year. That’s $120k spent. On the other hand let’s say you bought the $3M (which is the low end of your “sweet spot”) home and the market goes down just 10%. You’ve lost $300k plus $30k in taxes plus all the other fees. Are you willing to unnecessarily pay $210k+ just to say “I own”? That’s what you’ll be doing in this down market.

There’s always buyer’s remorse. At least if you rent in an area for a while you’ll know it so well that once you buy there will be little remorse.

Now tell me, how did you make your millions??? If it’s true that you have all this money then you must have some sort of financial savvy and I can’t understand why you’d be considering buying in this down market. Is there something you know that us sub-multi-millionaires don’t? I’m not poor but I definitely have an appreciation for every dollar I make and wouldn’t consider throwing any away but it seems like this is something you’re ok with.

[nostradamus]

Raptorduck, I envy your financial position but what’s wrong with renting for a while in an area you like before making such a huge purchase? You know the market isn’t going up anytime soon, right? You KNOW this! So rent something like this in Rancho Santa Fe or something in Del Mar or La Jolla and sit on it for a year.

Some people are predicting 30% drops in prices, some even more. Let’s say you rent a rock-star home for $10k a month for one year. That’s $120k spent. On the other hand let’s say you bought the $3M (which is the low end of your “sweet spot”) home and the market goes down just 10%. You’ve lost $300k plus $30k in taxes plus all the other fees. Are you willing to unnecessarily pay $210k+ just to say “I own”? That’s what you’ll be doing in this down market.

There’s always buyer’s remorse. At least if you rent in an area for a while you’ll know it so well that once you buy there will be little remorse.

Now tell me, how did you make your millions??? If it’s true that you have all this money then you must have some sort of financial savvy and I can’t understand why you’d be considering buying in this down market. Is there something you know that us sub-multi-millionaires don’t? I’m not poor but I definitely have an appreciation for every dollar I make and wouldn’t consider throwing any away but it seems like this is something you’re ok with.

[nostradamus]

Raptorduck, I envy your financial position but what’s wrong with renting for a while in an area you like before making such a huge purchase? You know the market isn’t going up anytime soon, right? You KNOW this! So rent something like this in Rancho Santa Fe or something in Del Mar or La Jolla and sit on it for a year.

Some people are predicting 30% drops in prices, some even more. Let’s say you rent a rock-star home for $10k a month for one year. That’s $120k spent. On the other hand let’s say you bought the $3M (which is the low end of your “sweet spot”) home and the market goes down just 10%. You’ve lost $300k plus $30k in taxes plus all the other fees. Are you willing to unnecessarily pay $210k+ just to say “I own”? That’s what you’ll be doing in this down market.

There’s always buyer’s remorse. At least if you rent in an area for a while you’ll know it so well that once you buy there will be little remorse.

Now tell me, how did you make your millions??? If it’s true that you have all this money then you must have some sort of financial savvy and I can’t understand why you’d be considering buying in this down market. Is there something you know that us sub-multi-millionaires don’t? I’m not poor but I definitely have an appreciation for every dollar I make and wouldn’t consider throwing any away but it seems like this is something you’re ok with.

[nostradamus]

Raptorduck, I envy your financial position but what’s wrong with renting for a while in an area you like before making such a huge purchase? You know the market isn’t going up anytime soon, right? You KNOW this! So rent something like this in Rancho Santa Fe or something in Del Mar or La Jolla and sit on it for a year.

Some people are predicting 30% drops in prices, some even more. Let’s say you rent a rock-star home for $10k a month for one year. That’s $120k spent. On the other hand let’s say you bought the $3M (which is the low end of your “sweet spot”) home and the market goes down just 10%. You’ve lost $300k plus $30k in taxes plus all the other fees. Are you willing to unnecessarily pay $210k+ just to say “I own”? That’s what you’ll be doing in this down market.

There’s always buyer’s remorse. At least if you rent in an area for a while you’ll know it so well that once you buy there will be little remorse.

Now tell me, how did you make your millions??? If it’s true that you have all this money then you must have some sort of financial savvy and I can’t understand why you’d be considering buying in this down market. Is there something you know that us sub-multi-millionaires don’t? I’m not poor but I definitely have an appreciation for every dollar I make and wouldn’t consider throwing any away but it seems like this is something you’re ok with.

[Bugs]

If it’s worth to you then it’s worth it to you. The Bay area has always had a much stronger income potential, and unlike SD County, that economy wasn’t driven solely by RE.

I liken it to comparing the increases in our ghetto vs. our high end neighborhoods. Yeah, the top end did okay during the runup, but it was the bottom end that more than tripled and it is the bottom end that is now racing in the opposite direction.

The Bay area is connected to the rest of the nation and it is just a matter of time before they also feel the pinch. During our runup the primary “reason” the bulls pointed to for explaining why prices couldn’t fall was “because it hasn’t happened yet.” Just as that line of reasoning proved incorrect in our area, I expect it to play out the same way in most other areas. The Bay area could turn out to be the exception, but I don’t see how unless there’s some big new wave in tech coming online.

[Bugs]

If it’s worth to you then it’s worth it to you. The Bay area has always had a much stronger income potential, and unlike SD County, that economy wasn’t driven solely by RE.

I liken it to comparing the increases in our ghetto vs. our high end neighborhoods. Yeah, the top end did okay during the runup, but it was the bottom end that more than tripled and it is the bottom end that is now racing in the opposite direction.

The Bay area is connected to the rest of the nation and it is just a matter of time before they also feel the pinch. During our runup the primary “reason” the bulls pointed to for explaining why prices couldn’t fall was “because it hasn’t happened yet.” Just as that line of reasoning proved incorrect in our area, I expect it to play out the same way in most other areas. The Bay area could turn out to be the exception, but I don’t see how unless there’s some big new wave in tech coming online.

[Bugs]

If it’s worth to you then it’s worth it to you. The Bay area has always had a much stronger income potential, and unlike SD County, that economy wasn’t driven solely by RE.

I liken it to comparing the increases in our ghetto vs. our high end neighborhoods. Yeah, the top end did okay during the runup, but it was the bottom end that more than tripled and it is the bottom end that is now racing in the opposite direction.

The Bay area is connected to the rest of the nation and it is just a matter of time before they also feel the pinch. During our runup the primary “reason” the bulls pointed to for explaining why prices couldn’t fall was “because it hasn’t happened yet.” Just as that line of reasoning proved incorrect in our area, I expect it to play out the same way in most other areas. The Bay area could turn out to be the exception, but I don’t see how unless there’s some big new wave in tech coming online.

[Bugs]

If it’s worth to you then it’s worth it to you. The Bay area has always had a much stronger income potential, and unlike SD County, that economy wasn’t driven solely by RE.

I liken it to comparing the increases in our ghetto vs. our high end neighborhoods. Yeah, the top end did okay during the runup, but it was the bottom end that more than tripled and it is the bottom end that is now racing in the opposite direction.

The Bay area is connected to the rest of the nation and it is just a matter of time before they also feel the pinch. During our runup the primary “reason” the bulls pointed to for explaining why prices couldn’t fall was “because it hasn’t happened yet.” Just as that line of reasoning proved incorrect in our area, I expect it to play out the same way in most other areas. The Bay area could turn out to be the exception, but I don’t see how unless there’s some big new wave in tech coming online.

[Bugs]

If it’s worth to you then it’s worth it to you. The Bay area has always had a much stronger income potential, and unlike SD County, that economy wasn’t driven solely by RE.

I liken it to comparing the increases in our ghetto vs. our high end neighborhoods. Yeah, the top end did okay during the runup, but it was the bottom end that more than tripled and it is the bottom end that is now racing in the opposite direction.

The Bay area is connected to the rest of the nation and it is just a matter of time before they also feel the pinch. During our runup the primary “reason” the bulls pointed to for explaining why prices couldn’t fall was “because it hasn’t happened yet.” Just as that line of reasoning proved incorrect in our area, I expect it to play out the same way in most other areas. The Bay area could turn out to be the exception, but I don’t see how unless there’s some big new wave in tech coming online.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

Bugs: I grew up there and have quite a few friends still there. Most of them are in Tech, and make good money, but I get the sense that the situation there is starting to deteriorate. Companies like Google will help prop the market up (take a look at home sales in Mountain View, Cupertino and Los Altos to get a sense of the “Google Effect” and the “Apple Effect”), but that can only last for so long.

Following the dot.bomb bust in 2000, I remember seeing neighborhoods in Mountain View lose 30% of their value over the next few years, so Bay Area housing is not immune.

I have been watching the San Francisco housing market (through SocketSite.com) and it is interesting to note two things: (1) The number of cancellations in downtown SF condo transactions, and (2) The slow declination of per square ft pricing of homes in the City of San Francisco proper. While these two events might signify nothing ultimately, they are indicators of a downward trend.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

Bugs: I grew up there and have quite a few friends still there. Most of them are in Tech, and make good money, but I get the sense that the situation there is starting to deteriorate. Companies like Google will help prop the market up (take a look at home sales in Mountain View, Cupertino and Los Altos to get a sense of the “Google Effect” and the “Apple Effect”), but that can only last for so long.

Following the dot.bomb bust in 2000, I remember seeing neighborhoods in Mountain View lose 30% of their value over the next few years, so Bay Area housing is not immune.

I have been watching the San Francisco housing market (through SocketSite.com) and it is interesting to note two things: (1) The number of cancellations in downtown SF condo transactions, and (2) The slow declination of per square ft pricing of homes in the City of San Francisco proper. While these two events might signify nothing ultimately, they are indicators of a downward trend.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

Bugs: I grew up there and have quite a few friends still there. Most of them are in Tech, and make good money, but I get the sense that the situation there is starting to deteriorate. Companies like Google will help prop the market up (take a look at home sales in Mountain View, Cupertino and Los Altos to get a sense of the “Google Effect” and the “Apple Effect”), but that can only last for so long.

Following the dot.bomb bust in 2000, I remember seeing neighborhoods in Mountain View lose 30% of their value over the next few years, so Bay Area housing is not immune.

I have been watching the San Francisco housing market (through SocketSite.com) and it is interesting to note two things: (1) The number of cancellations in downtown SF condo transactions, and (2) The slow declination of per square ft pricing of homes in the City of San Francisco proper. While these two events might signify nothing ultimately, they are indicators of a downward trend.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

Bugs: I grew up there and have quite a few friends still there. Most of them are in Tech, and make good money, but I get the sense that the situation there is starting to deteriorate. Companies like Google will help prop the market up (take a look at home sales in Mountain View, Cupertino and Los Altos to get a sense of the “Google Effect” and the “Apple Effect”), but that can only last for so long.

Following the dot.bomb bust in 2000, I remember seeing neighborhoods in Mountain View lose 30% of their value over the next few years, so Bay Area housing is not immune.

I have been watching the San Francisco housing market (through SocketSite.com) and it is interesting to note two things: (1) The number of cancellations in downtown SF condo transactions, and (2) The slow declination of per square ft pricing of homes in the City of San Francisco proper. While these two events might signify nothing ultimately, they are indicators of a downward trend.

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