The Market is Going to Zero Syndrome

[raptorduck]

You know. I have been on this board for a while now. I have learned much.

Several years ago, I looked at the SD markets I liked and homes there were more expensive per square foot/lot size than what I could buy here in the markets I like in the Bay Area. So I said, guess I am staying in the Bay Area.

Since then, prices have tumbled and now you can buy about twice the home in the nice areas of SD than you can in the nice areas here.

Now I have also gotten caught up in the incessantly falling SD market since I am a buyer looking for a deal on a dream house. But I don’t think the SD markets I am looking in will continue to fall indefinately. My view is that after next year they will bottom out. They can’t fall to zero. Some of the numbers I see here by folks seem to virtually suggest that.

Here, in the nice areas I would look in, inventory levels are quite low (below 2 months) and when I see a house that would remotely begin to compete with a nice RSF home (not really), it is not on the market very long and there are many buyers. There are a hell of a lot of rich buyers up here keeping prices steady in the high end markets and in a couple, they are going up. That is depressing when you consider the crap old shacks that $2-$5 million will get you in the best markets here. But I know a number of people looking to buy in the same neighborhoods as I would who can match me dollar for dollar and then some.

So when I look at SD, I see an embarrassment of riches. Like a kid in a candy store. I see lots and lots of great large high end homes in great areas. I feel spoiled. I can not make up my mind on what to buy because there are so many outstanding choices, even at current SD prices, 1/2 the price of here. Here, I get depressed because the so called high end house I can afford, that people would fight me for, I would not even notice in SD. And there is no house here, even at twice the price, that rivals what I have seen in SD. Our standards of bling in the Bay Area are so much lower than in SD.

Compared to the rest of the country, IMHO, the Bay Area is awesome (I grew up out East). But SD is soo much nicer.

So as you watch the market continue to tumble with me in SD, realize that you are lucky to live there whether you rent or own in an area with so many great places to live filled with great houses that at least look more worth their current price than the ones here. It is not nearly that good everywhere else and I am not even talking about the weather.

Now I am still counting on further SD market drop, but I felt I should point out that I am very thirsty and standing in front of an open fire hydrant.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

raptorduck: What part of the Bay Area do you live in? I grew up in Mountain View and my dad worked in Palo Alto. Just curious.

I have a buddy of mine that works for Intel in Sta Clara and lives in Los Altos. He has been keeping an eye on the Bay Area market since 1995, and reporting on the various ups and downs (dot.com boom and bust, then housing bubble following).

[raptorduck]

Well I live in San Jose, and have lived in Mountain View (twice) and Palo Alto, but the markets I looked at up here and continue to keep an eye on are Los Altos Hills, Los Altos, Atherton, Portola Valley, Woodside, Palo Alto, Saratoga, and Los Gatos, in that order.

Really I would want Los Altos Hills/Los Altos.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

raptorduck: Well, geez, who wouldn’t? I love Los Altos and LAH, as well as Palo Alto Hills (near the country club).

I went to Saint Francis in Mountain View (off of Miramonte) and spent a considerable amount of time in Los Altos and LAH.

[raptorduck]

Allan: I used to live wallking distance from St. Francis. I also used to live in the Palo Alto Hills, above the country club at the 2,000 foot level on Page Mill. But RSF, Del Mar, Santaluz, La Jolla are in a different league than LA, LAH, or PA IMHO.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

raptorduck: I just visited St. Francis again over the Thanksgiving holiday. I travel up there with my family to visit San Francisco, and make my “pilgrimage” to Franny on the drive back to SoCal.

I cannot believe how big the high school is now, nor can I believe how much money they have sunk into performing and graphic arts.

Bear in mind, I graduated in 1983. When I graduated, we did not have a swimming pool (we had to use Awalt’s), and total enrollment was around 1,100 students. They are now building a $12MM theatre and performing arts center, next to the old one (which didn’t exist when I was there), and talking about “upgrading” the tech facilities to include direct connections to Stanford’s Computer Lab and Engineering Dept.

Times change.

[raptorduck]

Allan. I tried to get my daughter to go there, but she opted for Mt. View High. She is a freshman. My x-brother in law went to St. Francis and might have graduated in your class. I will check.

[SD Realtor]

Raptor if you list your home, try to get in on the market in February if possible.

SD Realtor

[NotCranky]

Raptor
Selling without owning another home would be very uncomfortable to our family. We did it in 2005 and often think of doing it again because we have built a relatively large sum in sweat equity. If my lot were not splittable, allowing me to protect at least some of the gains I might lose by staying here, we would be gone. I am not saying everyone should look at a windfall or asset protection in their personal residence this way, just saying I know it is a tough decision from having hashed it out a couple of times.

Good luck.

[NotCranky]

Raptor
Selling without owning another home would be very uncomfortable to our family. We did it in 2005 and often think of doing it again because we have built a relatively large sum in sweat equity. If my lot were not splittable, allowing me to protect at least some of the gains I might lose by staying here, we would be gone. I am not saying everyone should look at a windfall or asset protection in their personal residence this way, just saying I know it is a tough decision from having hashed it out a couple of times.

Good luck.

[NotCranky]

Raptor
Selling without owning another home would be very uncomfortable to our family. We did it in 2005 and often think of doing it again because we have built a relatively large sum in sweat equity. If my lot were not splittable, allowing me to protect at least some of the gains I might lose by staying here, we would be gone. I am not saying everyone should look at a windfall or asset protection in their personal residence this way, just saying I know it is a tough decision from having hashed it out a couple of times.

Good luck.

[NotCranky]

Raptor
Selling without owning another home would be very uncomfortable to our family. We did it in 2005 and often think of doing it again because we have built a relatively large sum in sweat equity. If my lot were not splittable, allowing me to protect at least some of the gains I might lose by staying here, we would be gone. I am not saying everyone should look at a windfall or asset protection in their personal residence this way, just saying I know it is a tough decision from having hashed it out a couple of times.

Good luck.

[NotCranky]

Raptor
Selling without owning another home would be very uncomfortable to our family. We did it in 2005 and often think of doing it again because we have built a relatively large sum in sweat equity. If my lot were not splittable, allowing me to protect at least some of the gains I might lose by staying here, we would be gone. I am not saying everyone should look at a windfall or asset protection in their personal residence this way, just saying I know it is a tough decision from having hashed it out a couple of times.

Good luck.

[SD Realtor]

Raptor if you list your home, try to get in on the market in February if possible.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Raptor if you list your home, try to get in on the market in February if possible.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Raptor if you list your home, try to get in on the market in February if possible.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Raptor if you list your home, try to get in on the market in February if possible.

SD Realtor

[raptorduck]

Allan. I tried to get my daughter to go there, but she opted for Mt. View High. She is a freshman. My x-brother in law went to St. Francis and might have graduated in your class. I will check.

[raptorduck]

Allan. I tried to get my daughter to go there, but she opted for Mt. View High. She is a freshman. My x-brother in law went to St. Francis and might have graduated in your class. I will check.

[raptorduck]

Allan. I tried to get my daughter to go there, but she opted for Mt. View High. She is a freshman. My x-brother in law went to St. Francis and might have graduated in your class. I will check.

[raptorduck]

Allan. I tried to get my daughter to go there, but she opted for Mt. View High. She is a freshman. My x-brother in law went to St. Francis and might have graduated in your class. I will check.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

raptorduck: I just visited St. Francis again over the Thanksgiving holiday. I travel up there with my family to visit San Francisco, and make my “pilgrimage” to Franny on the drive back to SoCal.

I cannot believe how big the high school is now, nor can I believe how much money they have sunk into performing and graphic arts.

Bear in mind, I graduated in 1983. When I graduated, we did not have a swimming pool (we had to use Awalt’s), and total enrollment was around 1,100 students. They are now building a $12MM theatre and performing arts center, next to the old one (which didn’t exist when I was there), and talking about “upgrading” the tech facilities to include direct connections to Stanford’s Computer Lab and Engineering Dept.

Times change.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

raptorduck: I just visited St. Francis again over the Thanksgiving holiday. I travel up there with my family to visit San Francisco, and make my “pilgrimage” to Franny on the drive back to SoCal.

I cannot believe how big the high school is now, nor can I believe how much money they have sunk into performing and graphic arts.

Bear in mind, I graduated in 1983. When I graduated, we did not have a swimming pool (we had to use Awalt’s), and total enrollment was around 1,100 students. They are now building a $12MM theatre and performing arts center, next to the old one (which didn’t exist when I was there), and talking about “upgrading” the tech facilities to include direct connections to Stanford’s Computer Lab and Engineering Dept.

Times change.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

raptorduck: I just visited St. Francis again over the Thanksgiving holiday. I travel up there with my family to visit San Francisco, and make my “pilgrimage” to Franny on the drive back to SoCal.

I cannot believe how big the high school is now, nor can I believe how much money they have sunk into performing and graphic arts.

Bear in mind, I graduated in 1983. When I graduated, we did not have a swimming pool (we had to use Awalt’s), and total enrollment was around 1,100 students. They are now building a $12MM theatre and performing arts center, next to the old one (which didn’t exist when I was there), and talking about “upgrading” the tech facilities to include direct connections to Stanford’s Computer Lab and Engineering Dept.

Times change.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

raptorduck: I just visited St. Francis again over the Thanksgiving holiday. I travel up there with my family to visit San Francisco, and make my “pilgrimage” to Franny on the drive back to SoCal.

I cannot believe how big the high school is now, nor can I believe how much money they have sunk into performing and graphic arts.

Bear in mind, I graduated in 1983. When I graduated, we did not have a swimming pool (we had to use Awalt’s), and total enrollment was around 1,100 students. They are now building a $12MM theatre and performing arts center, next to the old one (which didn’t exist when I was there), and talking about “upgrading” the tech facilities to include direct connections to Stanford’s Computer Lab and Engineering Dept.

Times change.

[raptorduck]

Allan: I used to live wallking distance from St. Francis. I also used to live in the Palo Alto Hills, above the country club at the 2,000 foot level on Page Mill. But RSF, Del Mar, Santaluz, La Jolla are in a different league than LA, LAH, or PA IMHO.

[raptorduck]

Allan: I used to live wallking distance from St. Francis. I also used to live in the Palo Alto Hills, above the country club at the 2,000 foot level on Page Mill. But RSF, Del Mar, Santaluz, La Jolla are in a different league than LA, LAH, or PA IMHO.

[raptorduck]

Allan: I used to live wallking distance from St. Francis. I also used to live in the Palo Alto Hills, above the country club at the 2,000 foot level on Page Mill. But RSF, Del Mar, Santaluz, La Jolla are in a different league than LA, LAH, or PA IMHO.

[raptorduck]

Allan: I used to live wallking distance from St. Francis. I also used to live in the Palo Alto Hills, above the country club at the 2,000 foot level on Page Mill. But RSF, Del Mar, Santaluz, La Jolla are in a different league than LA, LAH, or PA IMHO.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

raptorduck: Well, geez, who wouldn’t? I love Los Altos and LAH, as well as Palo Alto Hills (near the country club).

I went to Saint Francis in Mountain View (off of Miramonte) and spent a considerable amount of time in Los Altos and LAH.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

raptorduck: Well, geez, who wouldn’t? I love Los Altos and LAH, as well as Palo Alto Hills (near the country club).

I went to Saint Francis in Mountain View (off of Miramonte) and spent a considerable amount of time in Los Altos and LAH.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

raptorduck: Well, geez, who wouldn’t? I love Los Altos and LAH, as well as Palo Alto Hills (near the country club).

I went to Saint Francis in Mountain View (off of Miramonte) and spent a considerable amount of time in Los Altos and LAH.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

raptorduck: Well, geez, who wouldn’t? I love Los Altos and LAH, as well as Palo Alto Hills (near the country club).

I went to Saint Francis in Mountain View (off of Miramonte) and spent a considerable amount of time in Los Altos and LAH.

[nostradamus]

Raptorduck, I envy your financial position but what’s wrong with renting for a while in an area you like before making such a huge purchase? You know the market isn’t going up anytime soon, right? You KNOW this! So rent something like this in Rancho Santa Fe or something in Del Mar or La Jolla and sit on it for a year.

Some people are predicting 30% drops in prices, some even more. Let’s say you rent a rock-star home for $10k a month for one year. That’s $120k spent. On the other hand let’s say you bought the $3M (which is the low end of your “sweet spot”) home and the market goes down just 10%. You’ve lost $300k plus $30k in taxes plus all the other fees. Are you willing to unnecessarily pay $210k+ just to say “I own”? That’s what you’ll be doing in this down market.

There’s always buyer’s remorse. At least if you rent in an area for a while you’ll know it so well that once you buy there will be little remorse.

Now tell me, how did you make your millions??? If it’s true that you have all this money then you must have some sort of financial savvy and I can’t understand why you’d be considering buying in this down market. Is there something you know that us sub-multi-millionaires don’t? I’m not poor but I definitely have an appreciation for every dollar I make and wouldn’t consider throwing any away but it seems like this is something you’re ok with.

[Bugs]

If it’s worth to you then it’s worth it to you. The Bay area has always had a much stronger income potential, and unlike SD County, that economy wasn’t driven solely by RE.

I liken it to comparing the increases in our ghetto vs. our high end neighborhoods. Yeah, the top end did okay during the runup, but it was the bottom end that more than tripled and it is the bottom end that is now racing in the opposite direction.

The Bay area is connected to the rest of the nation and it is just a matter of time before they also feel the pinch. During our runup the primary “reason” the bulls pointed to for explaining why prices couldn’t fall was “because it hasn’t happened yet.” Just as that line of reasoning proved incorrect in our area, I expect it to play out the same way in most other areas. The Bay area could turn out to be the exception, but I don’t see how unless there’s some big new wave in tech coming online.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

Bugs: I grew up there and have quite a few friends still there. Most of them are in Tech, and make good money, but I get the sense that the situation there is starting to deteriorate. Companies like Google will help prop the market up (take a look at home sales in Mountain View, Cupertino and Los Altos to get a sense of the “Google Effect” and the “Apple Effect”), but that can only last for so long.

Following the dot.bomb bust in 2000, I remember seeing neighborhoods in Mountain View lose 30% of their value over the next few years, so Bay Area housing is not immune.

I have been watching the San Francisco housing market (through SocketSite.com) and it is interesting to note two things: (1) The number of cancellations in downtown SF condo transactions, and (2) The slow declination of per square ft pricing of homes in the City of San Francisco proper. While these two events might signify nothing ultimately, they are indicators of a downward trend.

[Eugene]

I think that the housing market in Bay Area is starting to crumble along the edges, it’s just that the decline is not nearly as advanced as here in SD. Central areas like Mountain View or Los Altos are still holding well, but Vallejo and Livermore and Gilroy are disaster zones.

[Eugene]

I think that the housing market in Bay Area is starting to crumble along the edges, it’s just that the decline is not nearly as advanced as here in SD. Central areas like Mountain View or Los Altos are still holding well, but Vallejo and Livermore and Gilroy are disaster zones.

[Eugene]

I think that the housing market in Bay Area is starting to crumble along the edges, it’s just that the decline is not nearly as advanced as here in SD. Central areas like Mountain View or Los Altos are still holding well, but Vallejo and Livermore and Gilroy are disaster zones.

[Eugene]

I think that the housing market in Bay Area is starting to crumble along the edges, it’s just that the decline is not nearly as advanced as here in SD. Central areas like Mountain View or Los Altos are still holding well, but Vallejo and Livermore and Gilroy are disaster zones.

[Eugene]

I think that the housing market in Bay Area is starting to crumble along the edges, it’s just that the decline is not nearly as advanced as here in SD. Central areas like Mountain View or Los Altos are still holding well, but Vallejo and Livermore and Gilroy are disaster zones.

[NotCranky]

From what you have posted Raptor, If I were in your shoes I would sell regardless of any delays you may face in finding a house in North County San Diego. The market is obviously you friend as a seller there and San Diego appears to be your friend as a buyer within two years or less. You want to live here. No brainer. Sell and lease back for a while or relocate, do whatever it takes.

[flyer]

Raptor

Most of my family and I live in RSF in what most would consider fabulous homes, and we would never consider paying what the “nouveau riche” have been shelling out for homes over the past 10 years to live in this great location. So, don’t worry, you’ll still be paying far more than the “old money” did for their homes. Everything in life is simply relative.

[SD Realtor]

Raptor –

You have spent alot of time looking and researching. You have been diligent and whatever you decide to do, at least your decision will be informed. I will present two very brief arguments in each direction. My recommendation would be to do what Rus said which is sell yesterday and rent for the next 2 years. To continue

– You know I always preach about how a home is more then a simple asset. Again, you should buy a home to live in. If you can afford the home, (and in your case it sounds as if you do have some wealth) and if you can live in it without heavy financial concern, and if it will provide harmony for you and your family, then maybe it is a good decision to buy. If you truly are able to afford it, when you grow old and look back, will the money that you could have saved by waiting have made more of a difference in your life then the time you spent in the home with your family.

Which was more important not only to you, but to your family.

*****

– While I agree there are some who post with an extreme bearish mentality, most would agree that the properties that ran up the most, that were prone to the highest speculation will come down the hardest. While many of the areas you have looked at have not come down much, nor were they beset by heavy speculation, they will come down. It may be awhile but to think they are 100% immune is a fallacy. I think that if you could have some tangible proof that would help. Look the realtor you work with is most likely a full service broker who will not get a rebate right? So if you by a 1.5 or 2M place that brokerage is gonna get 45 or 60k right? So have your agent find you some tangible proof of declines of properties in that price range. I can tell you for a fact they are out there. Believe it or not even a foreclosure here and there. I know you may think this is out of the scope of showing me homes but your agent should be able to do this. The point is, if you see some of these places maybe that will give you more energy to hold off and rent for another year or two.

********

One last note… if you do have a property to sell and then you are also going to buy, you may not experience any windfall if the property you are going to sell does start to depreciate. So if that is the case then the entire argument I just presented for waiting is moot.

Again, I think selling now is something very serious to consider. Once you do that, then buying now verses not is something you need to wrestle with.

SD Realtor

[Ex-SD]

raptorduck: Please send your email address to me at [email protected]

I have some information that I would like to pass on to you.

[Ex-SD]

raptorduck: Please send your email address to me at [email protected]

I have some information that I would like to pass on to you.

[Ex-SD]

raptorduck: Please send your email address to me at [email protected]

I have some information that I would like to pass on to you.

[Ex-SD]

raptorduck: Please send your email address to me at [email protected]

I have some information that I would like to pass on to you.

[Ex-SD]

raptorduck: Please send your email address to me at [email protected]

I have some information that I would like to pass on to you.

[SD Realtor]

Raptor –

You have spent alot of time looking and researching. You have been diligent and whatever you decide to do, at least your decision will be informed. I will present two very brief arguments in each direction. My recommendation would be to do what Rus said which is sell yesterday and rent for the next 2 years. To continue

– You know I always preach about how a home is more then a simple asset. Again, you should buy a home to live in. If you can afford the home, (and in your case it sounds as if you do have some wealth) and if you can live in it without heavy financial concern, and if it will provide harmony for you and your family, then maybe it is a good decision to buy. If you truly are able to afford it, when you grow old and look back, will the money that you could have saved by waiting have made more of a difference in your life then the time you spent in the home with your family.

Which was more important not only to you, but to your family.

*****

– While I agree there are some who post with an extreme bearish mentality, most would agree that the properties that ran up the most, that were prone to the highest speculation will come down the hardest. While many of the areas you have looked at have not come down much, nor were they beset by heavy speculation, they will come down. It may be awhile but to think they are 100% immune is a fallacy. I think that if you could have some tangible proof that would help. Look the realtor you work with is most likely a full service broker who will not get a rebate right? So if you by a 1.5 or 2M place that brokerage is gonna get 45 or 60k right? So have your agent find you some tangible proof of declines of properties in that price range. I can tell you for a fact they are out there. Believe it or not even a foreclosure here and there. I know you may think this is out of the scope of showing me homes but your agent should be able to do this. The point is, if you see some of these places maybe that will give you more energy to hold off and rent for another year or two.

********

One last note… if you do have a property to sell and then you are also going to buy, you may not experience any windfall if the property you are going to sell does start to depreciate. So if that is the case then the entire argument I just presented for waiting is moot.

Again, I think selling now is something very serious to consider. Once you do that, then buying now verses not is something you need to wrestle with.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Raptor –

You have spent alot of time looking and researching. You have been diligent and whatever you decide to do, at least your decision will be informed. I will present two very brief arguments in each direction. My recommendation would be to do what Rus said which is sell yesterday and rent for the next 2 years. To continue

– You know I always preach about how a home is more then a simple asset. Again, you should buy a home to live in. If you can afford the home, (and in your case it sounds as if you do have some wealth) and if you can live in it without heavy financial concern, and if it will provide harmony for you and your family, then maybe it is a good decision to buy. If you truly are able to afford it, when you grow old and look back, will the money that you could have saved by waiting have made more of a difference in your life then the time you spent in the home with your family.

Which was more important not only to you, but to your family.

*****

– While I agree there are some who post with an extreme bearish mentality, most would agree that the properties that ran up the most, that were prone to the highest speculation will come down the hardest. While many of the areas you have looked at have not come down much, nor were they beset by heavy speculation, they will come down. It may be awhile but to think they are 100% immune is a fallacy. I think that if you could have some tangible proof that would help. Look the realtor you work with is most likely a full service broker who will not get a rebate right? So if you by a 1.5 or 2M place that brokerage is gonna get 45 or 60k right? So have your agent find you some tangible proof of declines of properties in that price range. I can tell you for a fact they are out there. Believe it or not even a foreclosure here and there. I know you may think this is out of the scope of showing me homes but your agent should be able to do this. The point is, if you see some of these places maybe that will give you more energy to hold off and rent for another year or two.

********

One last note… if you do have a property to sell and then you are also going to buy, you may not experience any windfall if the property you are going to sell does start to depreciate. So if that is the case then the entire argument I just presented for waiting is moot.

Again, I think selling now is something very serious to consider. Once you do that, then buying now verses not is something you need to wrestle with.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Raptor –

You have spent alot of time looking and researching. You have been diligent and whatever you decide to do, at least your decision will be informed. I will present two very brief arguments in each direction. My recommendation would be to do what Rus said which is sell yesterday and rent for the next 2 years. To continue

– You know I always preach about how a home is more then a simple asset. Again, you should buy a home to live in. If you can afford the home, (and in your case it sounds as if you do have some wealth) and if you can live in it without heavy financial concern, and if it will provide harmony for you and your family, then maybe it is a good decision to buy. If you truly are able to afford it, when you grow old and look back, will the money that you could have saved by waiting have made more of a difference in your life then the time you spent in the home with your family.

Which was more important not only to you, but to your family.

*****

– While I agree there are some who post with an extreme bearish mentality, most would agree that the properties that ran up the most, that were prone to the highest speculation will come down the hardest. While many of the areas you have looked at have not come down much, nor were they beset by heavy speculation, they will come down. It may be awhile but to think they are 100% immune is a fallacy. I think that if you could have some tangible proof that would help. Look the realtor you work with is most likely a full service broker who will not get a rebate right? So if you by a 1.5 or 2M place that brokerage is gonna get 45 or 60k right? So have your agent find you some tangible proof of declines of properties in that price range. I can tell you for a fact they are out there. Believe it or not even a foreclosure here and there. I know you may think this is out of the scope of showing me homes but your agent should be able to do this. The point is, if you see some of these places maybe that will give you more energy to hold off and rent for another year or two.

********

One last note… if you do have a property to sell and then you are also going to buy, you may not experience any windfall if the property you are going to sell does start to depreciate. So if that is the case then the entire argument I just presented for waiting is moot.

Again, I think selling now is something very serious to consider. Once you do that, then buying now verses not is something you need to wrestle with.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Raptor –

You have spent alot of time looking and researching. You have been diligent and whatever you decide to do, at least your decision will be informed. I will present two very brief arguments in each direction. My recommendation would be to do what Rus said which is sell yesterday and rent for the next 2 years. To continue

– You know I always preach about how a home is more then a simple asset. Again, you should buy a home to live in. If you can afford the home, (and in your case it sounds as if you do have some wealth) and if you can live in it without heavy financial concern, and if it will provide harmony for you and your family, then maybe it is a good decision to buy. If you truly are able to afford it, when you grow old and look back, will the money that you could have saved by waiting have made more of a difference in your life then the time you spent in the home with your family.

Which was more important not only to you, but to your family.

*****

– While I agree there are some who post with an extreme bearish mentality, most would agree that the properties that ran up the most, that were prone to the highest speculation will come down the hardest. While many of the areas you have looked at have not come down much, nor were they beset by heavy speculation, they will come down. It may be awhile but to think they are 100% immune is a fallacy. I think that if you could have some tangible proof that would help. Look the realtor you work with is most likely a full service broker who will not get a rebate right? So if you by a 1.5 or 2M place that brokerage is gonna get 45 or 60k right? So have your agent find you some tangible proof of declines of properties in that price range. I can tell you for a fact they are out there. Believe it or not even a foreclosure here and there. I know you may think this is out of the scope of showing me homes but your agent should be able to do this. The point is, if you see some of these places maybe that will give you more energy to hold off and rent for another year or two.

********

One last note… if you do have a property to sell and then you are also going to buy, you may not experience any windfall if the property you are going to sell does start to depreciate. So if that is the case then the entire argument I just presented for waiting is moot.

Again, I think selling now is something very serious to consider. Once you do that, then buying now verses not is something you need to wrestle with.

SD Realtor

[flyer]

Raptor

Most of my family and I live in RSF in what most would consider fabulous homes, and we would never consider paying what the “nouveau riche” have been shelling out for homes over the past 10 years to live in this great location. So, don’t worry, you’ll still be paying far more than the “old money” did for their homes. Everything in life is simply relative.

[flyer]

Raptor

Most of my family and I live in RSF in what most would consider fabulous homes, and we would never consider paying what the “nouveau riche” have been shelling out for homes over the past 10 years to live in this great location. So, don’t worry, you’ll still be paying far more than the “old money” did for their homes. Everything in life is simply relative.

[flyer]

Raptor

Most of my family and I live in RSF in what most would consider fabulous homes, and we would never consider paying what the “nouveau riche” have been shelling out for homes over the past 10 years to live in this great location. So, don’t worry, you’ll still be paying far more than the “old money” did for their homes. Everything in life is simply relative.

[flyer]

Raptor

Most of my family and I live in RSF in what most would consider fabulous homes, and we would never consider paying what the “nouveau riche” have been shelling out for homes over the past 10 years to live in this great location. So, don’t worry, you’ll still be paying far more than the “old money” did for their homes. Everything in life is simply relative.

[raptorduck]

Rustico. Very good advice as always. I am struggling with that very idea at the moment to just put my house for sale in March.

[raptorduck]

Rustico. Very good advice as always. I am struggling with that very idea at the moment to just put my house for sale in March.

[raptorduck]

Rustico. Very good advice as always. I am struggling with that very idea at the moment to just put my house for sale in March.

[raptorduck]

Rustico. Very good advice as always. I am struggling with that very idea at the moment to just put my house for sale in March.

[raptorduck]

Rustico. Very good advice as always. I am struggling with that very idea at the moment to just put my house for sale in March.

[NotCranky]

From what you have posted Raptor, If I were in your shoes I would sell regardless of any delays you may face in finding a house in North County San Diego. The market is obviously you friend as a seller there and San Diego appears to be your friend as a buyer within two years or less. You want to live here. No brainer. Sell and lease back for a while or relocate, do whatever it takes.

[NotCranky]

From what you have posted Raptor, If I were in your shoes I would sell regardless of any delays you may face in finding a house in North County San Diego. The market is obviously you friend as a seller there and San Diego appears to be your friend as a buyer within two years or less. You want to live here. No brainer. Sell and lease back for a while or relocate, do whatever it takes.

[NotCranky]

From what you have posted Raptor, If I were in your shoes I would sell regardless of any delays you may face in finding a house in North County San Diego. The market is obviously you friend as a seller there and San Diego appears to be your friend as a buyer within two years or less. You want to live here. No brainer. Sell and lease back for a while or relocate, do whatever it takes.

[NotCranky]

From what you have posted Raptor, If I were in your shoes I would sell regardless of any delays you may face in finding a house in North County San Diego. The market is obviously you friend as a seller there and San Diego appears to be your friend as a buyer within two years or less. You want to live here. No brainer. Sell and lease back for a while or relocate, do whatever it takes.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

Bugs: I grew up there and have quite a few friends still there. Most of them are in Tech, and make good money, but I get the sense that the situation there is starting to deteriorate. Companies like Google will help prop the market up (take a look at home sales in Mountain View, Cupertino and Los Altos to get a sense of the “Google Effect” and the “Apple Effect”), but that can only last for so long.

Following the dot.bomb bust in 2000, I remember seeing neighborhoods in Mountain View lose 30% of their value over the next few years, so Bay Area housing is not immune.

I have been watching the San Francisco housing market (through SocketSite.com) and it is interesting to note two things: (1) The number of cancellations in downtown SF condo transactions, and (2) The slow declination of per square ft pricing of homes in the City of San Francisco proper. While these two events might signify nothing ultimately, they are indicators of a downward trend.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

Bugs: I grew up there and have quite a few friends still there. Most of them are in Tech, and make good money, but I get the sense that the situation there is starting to deteriorate. Companies like Google will help prop the market up (take a look at home sales in Mountain View, Cupertino and Los Altos to get a sense of the “Google Effect” and the “Apple Effect”), but that can only last for so long.

Following the dot.bomb bust in 2000, I remember seeing neighborhoods in Mountain View lose 30% of their value over the next few years, so Bay Area housing is not immune.

I have been watching the San Francisco housing market (through SocketSite.com) and it is interesting to note two things: (1) The number of cancellations in downtown SF condo transactions, and (2) The slow declination of per square ft pricing of homes in the City of San Francisco proper. While these two events might signify nothing ultimately, they are indicators of a downward trend.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

Bugs: I grew up there and have quite a few friends still there. Most of them are in Tech, and make good money, but I get the sense that the situation there is starting to deteriorate. Companies like Google will help prop the market up (take a look at home sales in Mountain View, Cupertino and Los Altos to get a sense of the “Google Effect” and the “Apple Effect”), but that can only last for so long.

Following the dot.bomb bust in 2000, I remember seeing neighborhoods in Mountain View lose 30% of their value over the next few years, so Bay Area housing is not immune.

I have been watching the San Francisco housing market (through SocketSite.com) and it is interesting to note two things: (1) The number of cancellations in downtown SF condo transactions, and (2) The slow declination of per square ft pricing of homes in the City of San Francisco proper. While these two events might signify nothing ultimately, they are indicators of a downward trend.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

Bugs: I grew up there and have quite a few friends still there. Most of them are in Tech, and make good money, but I get the sense that the situation there is starting to deteriorate. Companies like Google will help prop the market up (take a look at home sales in Mountain View, Cupertino and Los Altos to get a sense of the “Google Effect” and the “Apple Effect”), but that can only last for so long.

Following the dot.bomb bust in 2000, I remember seeing neighborhoods in Mountain View lose 30% of their value over the next few years, so Bay Area housing is not immune.

I have been watching the San Francisco housing market (through SocketSite.com) and it is interesting to note two things: (1) The number of cancellations in downtown SF condo transactions, and (2) The slow declination of per square ft pricing of homes in the City of San Francisco proper. While these two events might signify nothing ultimately, they are indicators of a downward trend.

[Bugs]

If it’s worth to you then it’s worth it to you. The Bay area has always had a much stronger income potential, and unlike SD County, that economy wasn’t driven solely by RE.

I liken it to comparing the increases in our ghetto vs. our high end neighborhoods. Yeah, the top end did okay during the runup, but it was the bottom end that more than tripled and it is the bottom end that is now racing in the opposite direction.

The Bay area is connected to the rest of the nation and it is just a matter of time before they also feel the pinch. During our runup the primary “reason” the bulls pointed to for explaining why prices couldn’t fall was “because it hasn’t happened yet.” Just as that line of reasoning proved incorrect in our area, I expect it to play out the same way in most other areas. The Bay area could turn out to be the exception, but I don’t see how unless there’s some big new wave in tech coming online.

[Bugs]

If it’s worth to you then it’s worth it to you. The Bay area has always had a much stronger income potential, and unlike SD County, that economy wasn’t driven solely by RE.

I liken it to comparing the increases in our ghetto vs. our high end neighborhoods. Yeah, the top end did okay during the runup, but it was the bottom end that more than tripled and it is the bottom end that is now racing in the opposite direction.

The Bay area is connected to the rest of the nation and it is just a matter of time before they also feel the pinch. During our runup the primary “reason” the bulls pointed to for explaining why prices couldn’t fall was “because it hasn’t happened yet.” Just as that line of reasoning proved incorrect in our area, I expect it to play out the same way in most other areas. The Bay area could turn out to be the exception, but I don’t see how unless there’s some big new wave in tech coming online.

[Bugs]

If it’s worth to you then it’s worth it to you. The Bay area has always had a much stronger income potential, and unlike SD County, that economy wasn’t driven solely by RE.

I liken it to comparing the increases in our ghetto vs. our high end neighborhoods. Yeah, the top end did okay during the runup, but it was the bottom end that more than tripled and it is the bottom end that is now racing in the opposite direction.

The Bay area is connected to the rest of the nation and it is just a matter of time before they also feel the pinch. During our runup the primary “reason” the bulls pointed to for explaining why prices couldn’t fall was “because it hasn’t happened yet.” Just as that line of reasoning proved incorrect in our area, I expect it to play out the same way in most other areas. The Bay area could turn out to be the exception, but I don’t see how unless there’s some big new wave in tech coming online.

[Bugs]

If it’s worth to you then it’s worth it to you. The Bay area has always had a much stronger income potential, and unlike SD County, that economy wasn’t driven solely by RE.

I liken it to comparing the increases in our ghetto vs. our high end neighborhoods. Yeah, the top end did okay during the runup, but it was the bottom end that more than tripled and it is the bottom end that is now racing in the opposite direction.

The Bay area is connected to the rest of the nation and it is just a matter of time before they also feel the pinch. During our runup the primary “reason” the bulls pointed to for explaining why prices couldn’t fall was “because it hasn’t happened yet.” Just as that line of reasoning proved incorrect in our area, I expect it to play out the same way in most other areas. The Bay area could turn out to be the exception, but I don’t see how unless there’s some big new wave in tech coming online.

[raptorduck]

Nostradamus. I am not rich. I know a lot of rich people, so I can tell the difference. I ain’t one of them. I have been lucky with money and have a job that pays very well, but that is about it. I just went to school and got a lot of degrees and do something not many people can do where there is lots of demand for it globally. Nothing brilliant about that. Just common sense marketing.

I am no financial wiz kid and certainly not financially talented enough to be giving advice to folks. I know no more than an MBA who also has an economics degree. I live below my means so don’t tend to carry debt other than a mortgage, which as a rule should be no more than 33% of the value of my house after 5 years for me. That is all the savy I have. The rest is dumb is as dumb does.

Look, I owned Enron and Worldcom stock when the market tanked and a lot of it. Don’t look to me for financial or real estate advice. Why do you think I joined this board? I am an expert in some things, but not these.

[nostradamus]

I wouldn’t call you dumb at all but I can’t believe an MBA with a degree in economics doesn’t feel comfortable giving financial advice. I admire your humility. I wish Greenspan and Bernanke were less comfortable giving financial advice!

Anyhow, I guess your definition of rich is not only in financial terms.

It sounds like you’ve been very smart and made it through some interesting times. In another decade or so you can look back and say “I made it through the Enron/Worldcom crash and I sat tight during the biggest housing bubble in history”.

The housing bubble was good for me in one way: it made me save during these years and really learn a lot about housing valuation.

[nostradamus]

I wouldn’t call you dumb at all but I can’t believe an MBA with a degree in economics doesn’t feel comfortable giving financial advice. I admire your humility. I wish Greenspan and Bernanke were less comfortable giving financial advice!

Anyhow, I guess your definition of rich is not only in financial terms.

It sounds like you’ve been very smart and made it through some interesting times. In another decade or so you can look back and say “I made it through the Enron/Worldcom crash and I sat tight during the biggest housing bubble in history”.

The housing bubble was good for me in one way: it made me save during these years and really learn a lot about housing valuation.

[nostradamus]

I wouldn’t call you dumb at all but I can’t believe an MBA with a degree in economics doesn’t feel comfortable giving financial advice. I admire your humility. I wish Greenspan and Bernanke were less comfortable giving financial advice!

Anyhow, I guess your definition of rich is not only in financial terms.

It sounds like you’ve been very smart and made it through some interesting times. In another decade or so you can look back and say “I made it through the Enron/Worldcom crash and I sat tight during the biggest housing bubble in history”.

The housing bubble was good for me in one way: it made me save during these years and really learn a lot about housing valuation.

[nostradamus]

I wouldn’t call you dumb at all but I can’t believe an MBA with a degree in economics doesn’t feel comfortable giving financial advice. I admire your humility. I wish Greenspan and Bernanke were less comfortable giving financial advice!

Anyhow, I guess your definition of rich is not only in financial terms.

It sounds like you’ve been very smart and made it through some interesting times. In another decade or so you can look back and say “I made it through the Enron/Worldcom crash and I sat tight during the biggest housing bubble in history”.

The housing bubble was good for me in one way: it made me save during these years and really learn a lot about housing valuation.

[nostradamus]

I wouldn’t call you dumb at all but I can’t believe an MBA with a degree in economics doesn’t feel comfortable giving financial advice. I admire your humility. I wish Greenspan and Bernanke were less comfortable giving financial advice!

Anyhow, I guess your definition of rich is not only in financial terms.

It sounds like you’ve been very smart and made it through some interesting times. In another decade or so you can look back and say “I made it through the Enron/Worldcom crash and I sat tight during the biggest housing bubble in history”.

The housing bubble was good for me in one way: it made me save during these years and really learn a lot about housing valuation.

[raptorduck]

Nostradamus. I am not rich. I know a lot of rich people, so I can tell the difference. I ain’t one of them. I have been lucky with money and have a job that pays very well, but that is about it. I just went to school and got a lot of degrees and do something not many people can do where there is lots of demand for it globally. Nothing brilliant about that. Just common sense marketing.

I am no financial wiz kid and certainly not financially talented enough to be giving advice to folks. I know no more than an MBA who also has an economics degree. I live below my means so don’t tend to carry debt other than a mortgage, which as a rule should be no more than 33% of the value of my house after 5 years for me. That is all the savy I have. The rest is dumb is as dumb does.

Look, I owned Enron and Worldcom stock when the market tanked and a lot of it. Don’t look to me for financial or real estate advice. Why do you think I joined this board? I am an expert in some things, but not these.

[raptorduck]

Nostradamus. I am not rich. I know a lot of rich people, so I can tell the difference. I ain’t one of them. I have been lucky with money and have a job that pays very well, but that is about it. I just went to school and got a lot of degrees and do something not many people can do where there is lots of demand for it globally. Nothing brilliant about that. Just common sense marketing.

I am no financial wiz kid and certainly not financially talented enough to be giving advice to folks. I know no more than an MBA who also has an economics degree. I live below my means so don’t tend to carry debt other than a mortgage, which as a rule should be no more than 33% of the value of my house after 5 years for me. That is all the savy I have. The rest is dumb is as dumb does.

Look, I owned Enron and Worldcom stock when the market tanked and a lot of it. Don’t look to me for financial or real estate advice. Why do you think I joined this board? I am an expert in some things, but not these.

[raptorduck]

Nostradamus. I am not rich. I know a lot of rich people, so I can tell the difference. I ain’t one of them. I have been lucky with money and have a job that pays very well, but that is about it. I just went to school and got a lot of degrees and do something not many people can do where there is lots of demand for it globally. Nothing brilliant about that. Just common sense marketing.

I am no financial wiz kid and certainly not financially talented enough to be giving advice to folks. I know no more than an MBA who also has an economics degree. I live below my means so don’t tend to carry debt other than a mortgage, which as a rule should be no more than 33% of the value of my house after 5 years for me. That is all the savy I have. The rest is dumb is as dumb does.

Look, I owned Enron and Worldcom stock when the market tanked and a lot of it. Don’t look to me for financial or real estate advice. Why do you think I joined this board? I am an expert in some things, but not these.

[raptorduck]

Nostradamus. I am not rich. I know a lot of rich people, so I can tell the difference. I ain’t one of them. I have been lucky with money and have a job that pays very well, but that is about it. I just went to school and got a lot of degrees and do something not many people can do where there is lots of demand for it globally. Nothing brilliant about that. Just common sense marketing.

I am no financial wiz kid and certainly not financially talented enough to be giving advice to folks. I know no more than an MBA who also has an economics degree. I live below my means so don’t tend to carry debt other than a mortgage, which as a rule should be no more than 33% of the value of my house after 5 years for me. That is all the savy I have. The rest is dumb is as dumb does.

Look, I owned Enron and Worldcom stock when the market tanked and a lot of it. Don’t look to me for financial or real estate advice. Why do you think I joined this board? I am an expert in some things, but not these.

[nostradamus]

Raptorduck, I envy your financial position but what’s wrong with renting for a while in an area you like before making such a huge purchase? You know the market isn’t going up anytime soon, right? You KNOW this! So rent something like this in Rancho Santa Fe or something in Del Mar or La Jolla and sit on it for a year.

Some people are predicting 30% drops in prices, some even more. Let’s say you rent a rock-star home for $10k a month for one year. That’s $120k spent. On the other hand let’s say you bought the $3M (which is the low end of your “sweet spot”) home and the market goes down just 10%. You’ve lost $300k plus $30k in taxes plus all the other fees. Are you willing to unnecessarily pay $210k+ just to say “I own”? That’s what you’ll be doing in this down market.

There’s always buyer’s remorse. At least if you rent in an area for a while you’ll know it so well that once you buy there will be little remorse.

Now tell me, how did you make your millions??? If it’s true that you have all this money then you must have some sort of financial savvy and I can’t understand why you’d be considering buying in this down market. Is there something you know that us sub-multi-millionaires don’t? I’m not poor but I definitely have an appreciation for every dollar I make and wouldn’t consider throwing any away but it seems like this is something you’re ok with.

[nostradamus]

Raptorduck, I envy your financial position but what’s wrong with renting for a while in an area you like before making such a huge purchase? You know the market isn’t going up anytime soon, right? You KNOW this! So rent something like this in Rancho Santa Fe or something in Del Mar or La Jolla and sit on it for a year.

Some people are predicting 30% drops in prices, some even more. Let’s say you rent a rock-star home for $10k a month for one year. That’s $120k spent. On the other hand let’s say you bought the $3M (which is the low end of your “sweet spot”) home and the market goes down just 10%. You’ve lost $300k plus $30k in taxes plus all the other fees. Are you willing to unnecessarily pay $210k+ just to say “I own”? That’s what you’ll be doing in this down market.

There’s always buyer’s remorse. At least if you rent in an area for a while you’ll know it so well that once you buy there will be little remorse.

Now tell me, how did you make your millions??? If it’s true that you have all this money then you must have some sort of financial savvy and I can’t understand why you’d be considering buying in this down market. Is there something you know that us sub-multi-millionaires don’t? I’m not poor but I definitely have an appreciation for every dollar I make and wouldn’t consider throwing any away but it seems like this is something you’re ok with.

[nostradamus]

Raptorduck, I envy your financial position but what’s wrong with renting for a while in an area you like before making such a huge purchase? You know the market isn’t going up anytime soon, right? You KNOW this! So rent something like this in Rancho Santa Fe or something in Del Mar or La Jolla and sit on it for a year.

Some people are predicting 30% drops in prices, some even more. Let’s say you rent a rock-star home for $10k a month for one year. That’s $120k spent. On the other hand let’s say you bought the $3M (which is the low end of your “sweet spot”) home and the market goes down just 10%. You’ve lost $300k plus $30k in taxes plus all the other fees. Are you willing to unnecessarily pay $210k+ just to say “I own”? That’s what you’ll be doing in this down market.

There’s always buyer’s remorse. At least if you rent in an area for a while you’ll know it so well that once you buy there will be little remorse.

Now tell me, how did you make your millions??? If it’s true that you have all this money then you must have some sort of financial savvy and I can’t understand why you’d be considering buying in this down market. Is there something you know that us sub-multi-millionaires don’t? I’m not poor but I definitely have an appreciation for every dollar I make and wouldn’t consider throwing any away but it seems like this is something you’re ok with.

[nostradamus]

Raptorduck, I envy your financial position but what’s wrong with renting for a while in an area you like before making such a huge purchase? You know the market isn’t going up anytime soon, right? You KNOW this! So rent something like this in Rancho Santa Fe or something in Del Mar or La Jolla and sit on it for a year.

Some people are predicting 30% drops in prices, some even more. Let’s say you rent a rock-star home for $10k a month for one year. That’s $120k spent. On the other hand let’s say you bought the $3M (which is the low end of your “sweet spot”) home and the market goes down just 10%. You’ve lost $300k plus $30k in taxes plus all the other fees. Are you willing to unnecessarily pay $210k+ just to say “I own”? That’s what you’ll be doing in this down market.

There’s always buyer’s remorse. At least if you rent in an area for a while you’ll know it so well that once you buy there will be little remorse.

Now tell me, how did you make your millions??? If it’s true that you have all this money then you must have some sort of financial savvy and I can’t understand why you’d be considering buying in this down market. Is there something you know that us sub-multi-millionaires don’t? I’m not poor but I definitely have an appreciation for every dollar I make and wouldn’t consider throwing any away but it seems like this is something you’re ok with.

[raptorduck]

Well I live in San Jose, and have lived in Mountain View (twice) and Palo Alto, but the markets I looked at up here and continue to keep an eye on are Los Altos Hills, Los Altos, Atherton, Portola Valley, Woodside, Palo Alto, Saratoga, and Los Gatos, in that order.

Really I would want Los Altos Hills/Los Altos.

[raptorduck]

Well I live in San Jose, and have lived in Mountain View (twice) and Palo Alto, but the markets I looked at up here and continue to keep an eye on are Los Altos Hills, Los Altos, Atherton, Portola Valley, Woodside, Palo Alto, Saratoga, and Los Gatos, in that order.

Really I would want Los Altos Hills/Los Altos.

[raptorduck]

Well I live in San Jose, and have lived in Mountain View (twice) and Palo Alto, but the markets I looked at up here and continue to keep an eye on are Los Altos Hills, Los Altos, Atherton, Portola Valley, Woodside, Palo Alto, Saratoga, and Los Gatos, in that order.

Really I would want Los Altos Hills/Los Altos.

[raptorduck]

Well I live in San Jose, and have lived in Mountain View (twice) and Palo Alto, but the markets I looked at up here and continue to keep an eye on are Los Altos Hills, Los Altos, Atherton, Portola Valley, Woodside, Palo Alto, Saratoga, and Los Gatos, in that order.

Really I would want Los Altos Hills/Los Altos.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

raptorduck: What part of the Bay Area do you live in? I grew up in Mountain View and my dad worked in Palo Alto. Just curious.

I have a buddy of mine that works for Intel in Sta Clara and lives in Los Altos. He has been keeping an eye on the Bay Area market since 1995, and reporting on the various ups and downs (dot.com boom and bust, then housing bubble following).

[Allan from Fallbrook]

raptorduck: What part of the Bay Area do you live in? I grew up in Mountain View and my dad worked in Palo Alto. Just curious.

I have a buddy of mine that works for Intel in Sta Clara and lives in Los Altos. He has been keeping an eye on the Bay Area market since 1995, and reporting on the various ups and downs (dot.com boom and bust, then housing bubble following).

[Allan from Fallbrook]

raptorduck: What part of the Bay Area do you live in? I grew up in Mountain View and my dad worked in Palo Alto. Just curious.

I have a buddy of mine that works for Intel in Sta Clara and lives in Los Altos. He has been keeping an eye on the Bay Area market since 1995, and reporting on the various ups and downs (dot.com boom and bust, then housing bubble following).

[Allan from Fallbrook]

raptorduck: What part of the Bay Area do you live in? I grew up in Mountain View and my dad worked in Palo Alto. Just curious.

I have a buddy of mine that works for Intel in Sta Clara and lives in Los Altos. He has been keeping an eye on the Bay Area market since 1995, and reporting on the various ups and downs (dot.com boom and bust, then housing bubble following).

[asragov]

While I am in no way a bull on home prices, I thought that this latest housing valuation report from National City Bancorp was interesting.

They show San Diego as being overvalued by only about 8% – other areas of California much more so. There are obviously big issues with median price, variation within an area, etc. etc., but it is interesting since it has so much history and so many cities.

Raptorduck, you could probably find data to justify nearly anything. In any case:

http://www.nationalcity.com/corporate/EconomicInsight/HousingValuation/default.asp

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

asragov –

Looking at the charts you linked from NationalCity Bancorp it looks like the SD area went to undervalued in about 1992, about 4 years from the price bottom. Although, prices may hit their metric of properly valued, they will likely swing below it for a period of time. I’d guess their metric will at least reach negative 5% to neg. 10% before it will have bottomed.

[Arraya]

From a purely theoretical standpoint, house prices need to fall to match those at the start of the bubble in 2000. Why? Because otherwise we have to believe in The Free Lunch. For The Free Lunch to be true it must be possible for a person to buy a house, do nothing except sit on a couch drinking beer for the next 5 years and get rich in the process. Examining 70 past examples of asset bubbles we find that The Free Lunch has never worked before and it’s very unlikely to work this time either.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/martenson/2007/1217.html

[sdrealtor]

Ahem, its 2007 now so it would have to be 7 years. BTW, how much does one get paid for sitting on the couch and drinking beer? Enough to pay that mortgage for 7 years?

BTW, based upon a 30 yr fixed rate around 6%, one would have to come up with payments totaling in excess of 50% of their principal over 7 years.

[raptorduck]

“You want to rent!? Are you Serious? Is all my sacrafice raising your kids while you live at work so we can rent? Is that what you want me to tell my mother? And you want to rent for “years” so we can be pushed out by the owner when the market recovers and he wants to sell. Are you on drugs? That’s it, I am going to my mother’s!”

I swear I thought I asked my wife previously about possibly renting. I did didn’t I? I must have shared that with you guys in the past. Tell me I did. This was essentially the response I got last night when I suggested we consdider renting. It was like I never brought it up before. I know I did. I am sure I did.

It was in the context of selling our current house before we buy a new one. The logic of that did not stand a chance once I used the “R” word.

I am typing with a high pitch key stroke in real time and can hardly walk. I am not sure I physically able to continue to populate the planet after that reaction. I need medical attention.

[NotCranky]

Man,sorry to hear that. Sounds awful. We had a few like, that,not over renting but taking my wife out of the city. I suggested Arkansas, her suburban San Diego. We moved to east county, which is a pretty good compromise.I hope you two can find a compromise.

[NotCranky]

Man,sorry to hear that. Sounds awful. We had a few like, that,not over renting but taking my wife out of the city. I suggested Arkansas, her suburban San Diego. We moved to east county, which is a pretty good compromise.I hope you two can find a compromise.

[NotCranky]

Man,sorry to hear that. Sounds awful. We had a few like, that,not over renting but taking my wife out of the city. I suggested Arkansas, her suburban San Diego. We moved to east county, which is a pretty good compromise.I hope you two can find a compromise.

[NotCranky]

Man,sorry to hear that. Sounds awful. We had a few like, that,not over renting but taking my wife out of the city. I suggested Arkansas, her suburban San Diego. We moved to east county, which is a pretty good compromise.I hope you two can find a compromise.

[NotCranky]

Man,sorry to hear that. Sounds awful. We had a few like, that,not over renting but taking my wife out of the city. I suggested Arkansas, her suburban San Diego. We moved to east county, which is a pretty good compromise.I hope you two can find a compromise.

[no_such_reality]

Ouch, well, you can break her of the what are we going to tell mom now, or you can get drug around by your nose from fear of what mom thinks for the rest of your days.

Let’s go one by one:
You want to rent!? Are you Serious? Yes, I am.
all my sacrafice raising your kids while you live at work so we can rent? No, I really appreciate your taking care of the children and I can’t continue to live at work, it’s not fair to the children or you. Renting isn’t the reason, renting is the solution. If we buy, I’ll be working even more and once the kids are in school, you will too.
And you want to rent for “years” so we can be pushed out by the owner when the market recovers and he wants to sell. No, I want to rent just long enough so that we don’t have to live at work to buy and neglect our children and each other.

[no_such_reality]

Ouch, well, you can break her of the what are we going to tell mom now, or you can get drug around by your nose from fear of what mom thinks for the rest of your days.

Let’s go one by one:
You want to rent!? Are you Serious? Yes, I am.
all my sacrafice raising your kids while you live at work so we can rent? No, I really appreciate your taking care of the children and I can’t continue to live at work, it’s not fair to the children or you. Renting isn’t the reason, renting is the solution. If we buy, I’ll be working even more and once the kids are in school, you will too.
And you want to rent for “years” so we can be pushed out by the owner when the market recovers and he wants to sell. No, I want to rent just long enough so that we don’t have to live at work to buy and neglect our children and each other.

[no_such_reality]

Ouch, well, you can break her of the what are we going to tell mom now, or you can get drug around by your nose from fear of what mom thinks for the rest of your days.

Let’s go one by one:
You want to rent!? Are you Serious? Yes, I am.
all my sacrafice raising your kids while you live at work so we can rent? No, I really appreciate your taking care of the children and I can’t continue to live at work, it’s not fair to the children or you. Renting isn’t the reason, renting is the solution. If we buy, I’ll be working even more and once the kids are in school, you will too.
And you want to rent for “years” so we can be pushed out by the owner when the market recovers and he wants to sell. No, I want to rent just long enough so that we don’t have to live at work to buy and neglect our children and each other.

[no_such_reality]

Ouch, well, you can break her of the what are we going to tell mom now, or you can get drug around by your nose from fear of what mom thinks for the rest of your days.

Let’s go one by one:
You want to rent!? Are you Serious? Yes, I am.
all my sacrafice raising your kids while you live at work so we can rent? No, I really appreciate your taking care of the children and I can’t continue to live at work, it’s not fair to the children or you. Renting isn’t the reason, renting is the solution. If we buy, I’ll be working even more and once the kids are in school, you will too.
And you want to rent for “years” so we can be pushed out by the owner when the market recovers and he wants to sell. No, I want to rent just long enough so that we don’t have to live at work to buy and neglect our children and each other.

[no_such_reality]

Ouch, well, you can break her of the what are we going to tell mom now, or you can get drug around by your nose from fear of what mom thinks for the rest of your days.

Let’s go one by one:
You want to rent!? Are you Serious? Yes, I am.
all my sacrafice raising your kids while you live at work so we can rent? No, I really appreciate your taking care of the children and I can’t continue to live at work, it’s not fair to the children or you. Renting isn’t the reason, renting is the solution. If we buy, I’ll be working even more and once the kids are in school, you will too.
And you want to rent for “years” so we can be pushed out by the owner when the market recovers and he wants to sell. No, I want to rent just long enough so that we don’t have to live at work to buy and neglect our children and each other.

[raptorduck]

“You want to rent!? Are you Serious? Is all my sacrafice raising your kids while you live at work so we can rent? Is that what you want me to tell my mother? And you want to rent for “years” so we can be pushed out by the owner when the market recovers and he wants to sell. Are you on drugs? That’s it, I am going to my mother’s!”

I swear I thought I asked my wife previously about possibly renting. I did didn’t I? I must have shared that with you guys in the past. Tell me I did. This was essentially the response I got last night when I suggested we consdider renting. It was like I never brought it up before. I know I did. I am sure I did.

It was in the context of selling our current house before we buy a new one. The logic of that did not stand a chance once I used the “R” word.

I am typing with a high pitch key stroke in real time and can hardly walk. I am not sure I physically able to continue to populate the planet after that reaction. I need medical attention.

[raptorduck]

“You want to rent!? Are you Serious? Is all my sacrafice raising your kids while you live at work so we can rent? Is that what you want me to tell my mother? And you want to rent for “years” so we can be pushed out by the owner when the market recovers and he wants to sell. Are you on drugs? That’s it, I am going to my mother’s!”

I swear I thought I asked my wife previously about possibly renting. I did didn’t I? I must have shared that with you guys in the past. Tell me I did. This was essentially the response I got last night when I suggested we consdider renting. It was like I never brought it up before. I know I did. I am sure I did.

It was in the context of selling our current house before we buy a new one. The logic of that did not stand a chance once I used the “R” word.

I am typing with a high pitch key stroke in real time and can hardly walk. I am not sure I physically able to continue to populate the planet after that reaction. I need medical attention.

[raptorduck]

“You want to rent!? Are you Serious? Is all my sacrafice raising your kids while you live at work so we can rent? Is that what you want me to tell my mother? And you want to rent for “years” so we can be pushed out by the owner when the market recovers and he wants to sell. Are you on drugs? That’s it, I am going to my mother’s!”

I swear I thought I asked my wife previously about possibly renting. I did didn’t I? I must have shared that with you guys in the past. Tell me I did. This was essentially the response I got last night when I suggested we consdider renting. It was like I never brought it up before. I know I did. I am sure I did.

It was in the context of selling our current house before we buy a new one. The logic of that did not stand a chance once I used the “R” word.

I am typing with a high pitch key stroke in real time and can hardly walk. I am not sure I physically able to continue to populate the planet after that reaction. I need medical attention.

[raptorduck]

“You want to rent!? Are you Serious? Is all my sacrafice raising your kids while you live at work so we can rent? Is that what you want me to tell my mother? And you want to rent for “years” so we can be pushed out by the owner when the market recovers and he wants to sell. Are you on drugs? That’s it, I am going to my mother’s!”

I swear I thought I asked my wife previously about possibly renting. I did didn’t I? I must have shared that with you guys in the past. Tell me I did. This was essentially the response I got last night when I suggested we consdider renting. It was like I never brought it up before. I know I did. I am sure I did.

It was in the context of selling our current house before we buy a new one. The logic of that did not stand a chance once I used the “R” word.

I am typing with a high pitch key stroke in real time and can hardly walk. I am not sure I physically able to continue to populate the planet after that reaction. I need medical attention.

[sdrealtor]

Ahem, its 2007 now so it would have to be 7 years. BTW, how much does one get paid for sitting on the couch and drinking beer? Enough to pay that mortgage for 7 years?

BTW, based upon a 30 yr fixed rate around 6%, one would have to come up with payments totaling in excess of 50% of their principal over 7 years.

[sdrealtor]

Ahem, its 2007 now so it would have to be 7 years. BTW, how much does one get paid for sitting on the couch and drinking beer? Enough to pay that mortgage for 7 years?

BTW, based upon a 30 yr fixed rate around 6%, one would have to come up with payments totaling in excess of 50% of their principal over 7 years.

[sdrealtor]

Ahem, its 2007 now so it would have to be 7 years. BTW, how much does one get paid for sitting on the couch and drinking beer? Enough to pay that mortgage for 7 years?

BTW, based upon a 30 yr fixed rate around 6%, one would have to come up with payments totaling in excess of 50% of their principal over 7 years.

[sdrealtor]

Ahem, its 2007 now so it would have to be 7 years. BTW, how much does one get paid for sitting on the couch and drinking beer? Enough to pay that mortgage for 7 years?

BTW, based upon a 30 yr fixed rate around 6%, one would have to come up with payments totaling in excess of 50% of their principal over 7 years.

[Arraya]

From a purely theoretical standpoint, house prices need to fall to match those at the start of the bubble in 2000. Why? Because otherwise we have to believe in The Free Lunch. For The Free Lunch to be true it must be possible for a person to buy a house, do nothing except sit on a couch drinking beer for the next 5 years and get rich in the process. Examining 70 past examples of asset bubbles we find that The Free Lunch has never worked before and it’s very unlikely to work this time either.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/martenson/2007/1217.html

[Arraya]

From a purely theoretical standpoint, house prices need to fall to match those at the start of the bubble in 2000. Why? Because otherwise we have to believe in The Free Lunch. For The Free Lunch to be true it must be possible for a person to buy a house, do nothing except sit on a couch drinking beer for the next 5 years and get rich in the process. Examining 70 past examples of asset bubbles we find that The Free Lunch has never worked before and it’s very unlikely to work this time either.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/martenson/2007/1217.html

[Arraya]

From a purely theoretical standpoint, house prices need to fall to match those at the start of the bubble in 2000. Why? Because otherwise we have to believe in The Free Lunch. For The Free Lunch to be true it must be possible for a person to buy a house, do nothing except sit on a couch drinking beer for the next 5 years and get rich in the process. Examining 70 past examples of asset bubbles we find that The Free Lunch has never worked before and it’s very unlikely to work this time either.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/martenson/2007/1217.html

[Arraya]

From a purely theoretical standpoint, house prices need to fall to match those at the start of the bubble in 2000. Why? Because otherwise we have to believe in The Free Lunch. For The Free Lunch to be true it must be possible for a person to buy a house, do nothing except sit on a couch drinking beer for the next 5 years and get rich in the process. Examining 70 past examples of asset bubbles we find that The Free Lunch has never worked before and it’s very unlikely to work this time either.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/martenson/2007/1217.html

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

asragov –

Looking at the charts you linked from NationalCity Bancorp it looks like the SD area went to undervalued in about 1992, about 4 years from the price bottom. Although, prices may hit their metric of properly valued, they will likely swing below it for a period of time. I’d guess their metric will at least reach negative 5% to neg. 10% before it will have bottomed.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

asragov –

Looking at the charts you linked from NationalCity Bancorp it looks like the SD area went to undervalued in about 1992, about 4 years from the price bottom. Although, prices may hit their metric of properly valued, they will likely swing below it for a period of time. I’d guess their metric will at least reach negative 5% to neg. 10% before it will have bottomed.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

asragov –

Looking at the charts you linked from NationalCity Bancorp it looks like the SD area went to undervalued in about 1992, about 4 years from the price bottom. Although, prices may hit their metric of properly valued, they will likely swing below it for a period of time. I’d guess their metric will at least reach negative 5% to neg. 10% before it will have bottomed.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

asragov –

Looking at the charts you linked from NationalCity Bancorp it looks like the SD area went to undervalued in about 1992, about 4 years from the price bottom. Although, prices may hit their metric of properly valued, they will likely swing below it for a period of time. I’d guess their metric will at least reach negative 5% to neg. 10% before it will have bottomed.

[asragov]

While I am in no way a bull on home prices, I thought that this latest housing valuation report from National City Bancorp was interesting.

They show San Diego as being overvalued by only about 8% – other areas of California much more so. There are obviously big issues with median price, variation within an area, etc. etc., but it is interesting since it has so much history and so many cities.

Raptorduck, you could probably find data to justify nearly anything. In any case:

http://www.nationalcity.com/corporate/EconomicInsight/HousingValuation/default.asp

[asragov]

While I am in no way a bull on home prices, I thought that this latest housing valuation report from National City Bancorp was interesting.

They show San Diego as being overvalued by only about 8% – other areas of California much more so. There are obviously big issues with median price, variation within an area, etc. etc., but it is interesting since it has so much history and so many cities.

Raptorduck, you could probably find data to justify nearly anything. In any case:

http://www.nationalcity.com/corporate/EconomicInsight/HousingValuation/default.asp

[asragov]

While I am in no way a bull on home prices, I thought that this latest housing valuation report from National City Bancorp was interesting.

They show San Diego as being overvalued by only about 8% – other areas of California much more so. There are obviously big issues with median price, variation within an area, etc. etc., but it is interesting since it has so much history and so many cities.

Raptorduck, you could probably find data to justify nearly anything. In any case:

http://www.nationalcity.com/corporate/EconomicInsight/HousingValuation/default.asp

[asragov]

While I am in no way a bull on home prices, I thought that this latest housing valuation report from National City Bancorp was interesting.

They show San Diego as being overvalued by only about 8% – other areas of California much more so. There are obviously big issues with median price, variation within an area, etc. etc., but it is interesting since it has so much history and so many cities.

Raptorduck, you could probably find data to justify nearly anything. In any case:

http://www.nationalcity.com/corporate/EconomicInsight/HousingValuation/default.asp

[patientrenter]

raptorduck, most people here can afford less than 1/10 of what you can afford. At current SD prices, what they can buy isn’t so very nice. And that’s the problem…. prices are lower than last year, but decent places are still unaffordable for all but a very few.

Having said that, obviously some people are mistaking hope for knowledge when they assert that prices will drop by more than 50%, and it’s all in the bag, and God himself came by and told them. It may come to pass, but I haven’t seen anyone lay out the proof yet.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

raptorduck, most people here can afford less than 1/10 of what you can afford. At current SD prices, what they can buy isn’t so very nice. And that’s the problem…. prices are lower than last year, but decent places are still unaffordable for all but a very few.

Having said that, obviously some people are mistaking hope for knowledge when they assert that prices will drop by more than 50%, and it’s all in the bag, and God himself came by and told them. It may come to pass, but I haven’t seen anyone lay out the proof yet.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

raptorduck, most people here can afford less than 1/10 of what you can afford. At current SD prices, what they can buy isn’t so very nice. And that’s the problem…. prices are lower than last year, but decent places are still unaffordable for all but a very few.

Having said that, obviously some people are mistaking hope for knowledge when they assert that prices will drop by more than 50%, and it’s all in the bag, and God himself came by and told them. It may come to pass, but I haven’t seen anyone lay out the proof yet.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

raptorduck, most people here can afford less than 1/10 of what you can afford. At current SD prices, what they can buy isn’t so very nice. And that’s the problem…. prices are lower than last year, but decent places are still unaffordable for all but a very few.

Having said that, obviously some people are mistaking hope for knowledge when they assert that prices will drop by more than 50%, and it’s all in the bag, and God himself came by and told them. It may come to pass, but I haven’t seen anyone lay out the proof yet.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

raptorduck, most people here can afford less than 1/10 of what you can afford. At current SD prices, what they can buy isn’t so very nice. And that’s the problem…. prices are lower than last year, but decent places are still unaffordable for all but a very few.

Having said that, obviously some people are mistaking hope for knowledge when they assert that prices will drop by more than 50%, and it’s all in the bag, and God himself came by and told them. It may come to pass, but I haven’t seen anyone lay out the proof yet.

Patient renter in OC

[Author]

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