The Market is Going to Zero Syndrome

[raptorduck]

You know. I have been on this board for a while now. I have learned much.

Several years ago, I looked at the SD markets I liked and homes there were more expensive per square foot/lot size than what I could buy here in the markets I like in the Bay Area. So I said, guess I am staying in the Bay Area.

Since then, prices have tumbled and now you can buy about twice the home in the nice areas of SD than you can in the nice areas here.

Now I have also gotten caught up in the incessantly falling SD market since I am a buyer looking for a deal on a dream house. But I don’t think the SD markets I am looking in will continue to fall indefinately. My view is that after next year they will bottom out. They can’t fall to zero. Some of the numbers I see here by folks seem to virtually suggest that.

Here, in the nice areas I would look in, inventory levels are quite low (below 2 months) and when I see a house that would remotely begin to compete with a nice RSF home (not really), it is not on the market very long and there are many buyers. There are a hell of a lot of rich buyers up here keeping prices steady in the high end markets and in a couple, they are going up. That is depressing when you consider the crap old shacks that $2-$5 million will get you in the best markets here. But I know a number of people looking to buy in the same neighborhoods as I would who can match me dollar for dollar and then some.

So when I look at SD, I see an embarrassment of riches. Like a kid in a candy store. I see lots and lots of great large high end homes in great areas. I feel spoiled. I can not make up my mind on what to buy because there are so many outstanding choices, even at current SD prices, 1/2 the price of here. Here, I get depressed because the so called high end house I can afford, that people would fight me for, I would not even notice in SD. And there is no house here, even at twice the price, that rivals what I have seen in SD. Our standards of bling in the Bay Area are so much lower than in SD.

Compared to the rest of the country, IMHO, the Bay Area is awesome (I grew up out East). But SD is soo much nicer.

So as you watch the market continue to tumble with me in SD, realize that you are lucky to live there whether you rent or own in an area with so many great places to live filled with great houses that at least look more worth their current price than the ones here. It is not nearly that good everywhere else and I am not even talking about the weather.

Now I am still counting on further SD market drop, but I felt I should point out that I am very thirsty and standing in front of an open fire hydrant.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

raptorduck: What part of the Bay Area do you live in? I grew up in Mountain View and my dad worked in Palo Alto. Just curious.

I have a buddy of mine that works for Intel in Sta Clara and lives in Los Altos. He has been keeping an eye on the Bay Area market since 1995, and reporting on the various ups and downs (dot.com boom and bust, then housing bubble following).

[Allan from Fallbrook]

raptorduck: What part of the Bay Area do you live in? I grew up in Mountain View and my dad worked in Palo Alto. Just curious.

I have a buddy of mine that works for Intel in Sta Clara and lives in Los Altos. He has been keeping an eye on the Bay Area market since 1995, and reporting on the various ups and downs (dot.com boom and bust, then housing bubble following).

[Allan from Fallbrook]

raptorduck: What part of the Bay Area do you live in? I grew up in Mountain View and my dad worked in Palo Alto. Just curious.

I have a buddy of mine that works for Intel in Sta Clara and lives in Los Altos. He has been keeping an eye on the Bay Area market since 1995, and reporting on the various ups and downs (dot.com boom and bust, then housing bubble following).

[Allan from Fallbrook]

raptorduck: What part of the Bay Area do you live in? I grew up in Mountain View and my dad worked in Palo Alto. Just curious.

I have a buddy of mine that works for Intel in Sta Clara and lives in Los Altos. He has been keeping an eye on the Bay Area market since 1995, and reporting on the various ups and downs (dot.com boom and bust, then housing bubble following).

[Allan from Fallbrook]

raptorduck: What part of the Bay Area do you live in? I grew up in Mountain View and my dad worked in Palo Alto. Just curious.

I have a buddy of mine that works for Intel in Sta Clara and lives in Los Altos. He has been keeping an eye on the Bay Area market since 1995, and reporting on the various ups and downs (dot.com boom and bust, then housing bubble following).

[raptorduck]

Well I live in San Jose, and have lived in Mountain View (twice) and Palo Alto, but the markets I looked at up here and continue to keep an eye on are Los Altos Hills, Los Altos, Atherton, Portola Valley, Woodside, Palo Alto, Saratoga, and Los Gatos, in that order.

Really I would want Los Altos Hills/Los Altos.

[raptorduck]

Well I live in San Jose, and have lived in Mountain View (twice) and Palo Alto, but the markets I looked at up here and continue to keep an eye on are Los Altos Hills, Los Altos, Atherton, Portola Valley, Woodside, Palo Alto, Saratoga, and Los Gatos, in that order.

Really I would want Los Altos Hills/Los Altos.

[raptorduck]

Well I live in San Jose, and have lived in Mountain View (twice) and Palo Alto, but the markets I looked at up here and continue to keep an eye on are Los Altos Hills, Los Altos, Atherton, Portola Valley, Woodside, Palo Alto, Saratoga, and Los Gatos, in that order.

Really I would want Los Altos Hills/Los Altos.

[raptorduck]

Well I live in San Jose, and have lived in Mountain View (twice) and Palo Alto, but the markets I looked at up here and continue to keep an eye on are Los Altos Hills, Los Altos, Atherton, Portola Valley, Woodside, Palo Alto, Saratoga, and Los Gatos, in that order.

Really I would want Los Altos Hills/Los Altos.

[raptorduck]

Well I live in San Jose, and have lived in Mountain View (twice) and Palo Alto, but the markets I looked at up here and continue to keep an eye on are Los Altos Hills, Los Altos, Atherton, Portola Valley, Woodside, Palo Alto, Saratoga, and Los Gatos, in that order.

Really I would want Los Altos Hills/Los Altos.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

raptorduck: Well, geez, who wouldn’t? I love Los Altos and LAH, as well as Palo Alto Hills (near the country club).

I went to Saint Francis in Mountain View (off of Miramonte) and spent a considerable amount of time in Los Altos and LAH.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

raptorduck: Well, geez, who wouldn’t? I love Los Altos and LAH, as well as Palo Alto Hills (near the country club).

I went to Saint Francis in Mountain View (off of Miramonte) and spent a considerable amount of time in Los Altos and LAH.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

raptorduck: Well, geez, who wouldn’t? I love Los Altos and LAH, as well as Palo Alto Hills (near the country club).

I went to Saint Francis in Mountain View (off of Miramonte) and spent a considerable amount of time in Los Altos and LAH.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

raptorduck: Well, geez, who wouldn’t? I love Los Altos and LAH, as well as Palo Alto Hills (near the country club).

I went to Saint Francis in Mountain View (off of Miramonte) and spent a considerable amount of time in Los Altos and LAH.

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