The boat turns slowly

[UCGal]

I am about as good at predicting the housing market as I am at predicting the financial markets… In other words – I keep trying to apply reason and sanity to a system that is manipulated in a way that I can never predict. I didn’t predict the government intervention in housing to the extent it’s happening. They’ve come up with so many creative, unpredictable ways to prop it up and reinflate – from overt stuff like the 8k incentives, to more subtle ways like free, unlimited credit to the banks which allows them to carry non-performing mortgages indefinitely.

[briansd1]

Sounds about right.

I predicted a long period of stagnation that will in essence bring us back to Year 2000 prices.

White collar professional jobs will be hit next.

If you are waiting for lower housing prices (real adjusted prices), be patient and enjoy watching the events unfold before your eyes.

I don’t think that we will have outright deflation, but very low inflation with stagnant wages. That will, over a decade, bring other productive economies’ wages and prices closer to ours.

As long as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan continue, our economy will suffer. Superimpose the wars’ timeline to the economy and you see our economic decline.

Our leadership has been distracted away from economics to security and we are paying the price.

An American lost decade? Time will tell….

U.S. may face deflation, a problem Japan understands too well
Economists worry that America could be edging closer to the trap that cost the other nation more than a decade of growth.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-0726-deflation-economy-20100726,0,617505,full.story

[briansd1]

Sounds about right.

I predicted a long period of stagnation that will in essence bring us back to Year 2000 prices.

White collar professional jobs will be hit next.

If you are waiting for lower housing prices (real adjusted prices), be patient and enjoy watching the events unfold before your eyes.

I don’t think that we will have outright deflation, but very low inflation with stagnant wages. That will, over a decade, bring other productive economies’ wages and prices closer to ours.

As long as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan continue, our economy will suffer. Superimpose the wars’ timeline to the economy and you see our economic decline.

Our leadership has been distracted away from economics to security and we are paying the price.

An American lost decade? Time will tell….

U.S. may face deflation, a problem Japan understands too well
Economists worry that America could be edging closer to the trap that cost the other nation more than a decade of growth.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-0726-deflation-economy-20100726,0,617505,full.story

[briansd1]

Sounds about right.

I predicted a long period of stagnation that will in essence bring us back to Year 2000 prices.

White collar professional jobs will be hit next.

If you are waiting for lower housing prices (real adjusted prices), be patient and enjoy watching the events unfold before your eyes.

I don’t think that we will have outright deflation, but very low inflation with stagnant wages. That will, over a decade, bring other productive economies’ wages and prices closer to ours.

As long as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan continue, our economy will suffer. Superimpose the wars’ timeline to the economy and you see our economic decline.

Our leadership has been distracted away from economics to security and we are paying the price.

An American lost decade? Time will tell….

U.S. may face deflation, a problem Japan understands too well
Economists worry that America could be edging closer to the trap that cost the other nation more than a decade of growth.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-0726-deflation-economy-20100726,0,617505,full.story

[briansd1]

Sounds about right.

I predicted a long period of stagnation that will in essence bring us back to Year 2000 prices.

White collar professional jobs will be hit next.

If you are waiting for lower housing prices (real adjusted prices), be patient and enjoy watching the events unfold before your eyes.

I don’t think that we will have outright deflation, but very low inflation with stagnant wages. That will, over a decade, bring other productive economies’ wages and prices closer to ours.

As long as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan continue, our economy will suffer. Superimpose the wars’ timeline to the economy and you see our economic decline.

Our leadership has been distracted away from economics to security and we are paying the price.

An American lost decade? Time will tell….

U.S. may face deflation, a problem Japan understands too well
Economists worry that America could be edging closer to the trap that cost the other nation more than a decade of growth.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-0726-deflation-economy-20100726,0,617505,full.story

[briansd1]

Sounds about right.

I predicted a long period of stagnation that will in essence bring us back to Year 2000 prices.

White collar professional jobs will be hit next.

If you are waiting for lower housing prices (real adjusted prices), be patient and enjoy watching the events unfold before your eyes.

I don’t think that we will have outright deflation, but very low inflation with stagnant wages. That will, over a decade, bring other productive economies’ wages and prices closer to ours.

As long as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan continue, our economy will suffer. Superimpose the wars’ timeline to the economy and you see our economic decline.

Our leadership has been distracted away from economics to security and we are paying the price.

An American lost decade? Time will tell….

U.S. may face deflation, a problem Japan understands too well
Economists worry that America could be edging closer to the trap that cost the other nation more than a decade of growth.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-0726-deflation-economy-20100726,0,617505,full.story

[Coronita]

Still waiting for my 3.00% apr on a 15 year loan….
(I’ll settle for a 15 year loan instead of 30 now..))

[Coronita]

Still waiting for my 3.00% apr on a 15 year loan….
(I’ll settle for a 15 year loan instead of 30 now..))

[Coronita]

Still waiting for my 3.00% apr on a 15 year loan….
(I’ll settle for a 15 year loan instead of 30 now..))

[Coronita]

Still waiting for my 3.00% apr on a 15 year loan….
(I’ll settle for a 15 year loan instead of 30 now..))

[Coronita]

Still waiting for my 3.00% apr on a 15 year loan….
(I’ll settle for a 15 year loan instead of 30 now..))

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

“I predicted a long period of stagnation that will in essence bring us back to Year 2000 prices. ”

What do you mean by “in essence” ?

Do you mean:
a) nominal 2000 prices ?
b) inflation-adjusted 2000 prices ?
c) Price-to-income ratios at the same level as 2000 ?
d) Price to rent rations at the same level as 2000 ?
e) Some other metric.

I personally don’t think we will see year 2000 nominal prices broadly across San Diego. Primarily because mortgage payments to rent is very favorable, and price ratios are not that far above long-term trends. However, I do think we will see inflation-adjusted 2000 prices.
Actually we essentially hit that mark already in the C-S index in Spring 2009, and may cross it again or dwell around that point over next few years.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

“I predicted a long period of stagnation that will in essence bring us back to Year 2000 prices. ”

What do you mean by “in essence” ?

Do you mean:
a) nominal 2000 prices ?
b) inflation-adjusted 2000 prices ?
c) Price-to-income ratios at the same level as 2000 ?
d) Price to rent rations at the same level as 2000 ?
e) Some other metric.

I personally don’t think we will see year 2000 nominal prices broadly across San Diego. Primarily because mortgage payments to rent is very favorable, and price ratios are not that far above long-term trends. However, I do think we will see inflation-adjusted 2000 prices.
Actually we essentially hit that mark already in the C-S index in Spring 2009, and may cross it again or dwell around that point over next few years.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

“I predicted a long period of stagnation that will in essence bring us back to Year 2000 prices. ”

What do you mean by “in essence” ?

Do you mean:
a) nominal 2000 prices ?
b) inflation-adjusted 2000 prices ?
c) Price-to-income ratios at the same level as 2000 ?
d) Price to rent rations at the same level as 2000 ?
e) Some other metric.

I personally don’t think we will see year 2000 nominal prices broadly across San Diego. Primarily because mortgage payments to rent is very favorable, and price ratios are not that far above long-term trends. However, I do think we will see inflation-adjusted 2000 prices.
Actually we essentially hit that mark already in the C-S index in Spring 2009, and may cross it again or dwell around that point over next few years.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

“I predicted a long period of stagnation that will in essence bring us back to Year 2000 prices. ”

What do you mean by “in essence” ?

Do you mean:
a) nominal 2000 prices ?
b) inflation-adjusted 2000 prices ?
c) Price-to-income ratios at the same level as 2000 ?
d) Price to rent rations at the same level as 2000 ?
e) Some other metric.

I personally don’t think we will see year 2000 nominal prices broadly across San Diego. Primarily because mortgage payments to rent is very favorable, and price ratios are not that far above long-term trends. However, I do think we will see inflation-adjusted 2000 prices.
Actually we essentially hit that mark already in the C-S index in Spring 2009, and may cross it again or dwell around that point over next few years.

[Author]

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