The boat turns slowly

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

“I predicted a long period of stagnation that will in essence bring us back to Year 2000 prices. ”

What do you mean by “in essence” ?

Do you mean:
a) nominal 2000 prices ?
b) inflation-adjusted 2000 prices ?
c) Price-to-income ratios at the same level as 2000 ?
d) Price to rent rations at the same level as 2000 ?
e) Some other metric.

I personally don’t think we will see year 2000 nominal prices broadly across San Diego. Primarily because mortgage payments to rent is very favorable, and price ratios are not that far above long-term trends. However, I do think we will see inflation-adjusted 2000 prices.
Actually we essentially hit that mark already in the C-S index in Spring 2009, and may cross it again or dwell around that point over next few years.

[Coronita]

I predict in 10-15 years, we’ll still be debating here as to when we think the bottom in RE will occur….Of course some of us won’t care by then because some of us will be too old to enjoy life anyway.

[Coronita]

I predict in 10-15 years, we’ll still be debating here as to when we think the bottom in RE will occur….Of course some of us won’t care by then because some of us will be too old to enjoy life anyway.

[Coronita]

I predict in 10-15 years, we’ll still be debating here as to when we think the bottom in RE will occur….Of course some of us won’t care by then because some of us will be too old to enjoy life anyway.

[Coronita]

I predict in 10-15 years, we’ll still be debating here as to when we think the bottom in RE will occur….Of course some of us won’t care by then because some of us will be too old to enjoy life anyway.

[Coronita]

I predict in 10-15 years, we’ll still be debating here as to when we think the bottom in RE will occur….Of course some of us won’t care by then because some of us will be too old to enjoy life anyway.

[andymajumder]

I don’t see how we can get back to 2000 nominal prices in at least the desirable areas of San Diego. Looking at the chart of historical mortgage rates it seems like rates were ~6.5% in 2000. Right now it is possible to get 30 yr fixed at 4.5%. This makes a big difference to how much people can afford, so unless interest rates shoot up, I don’t see how we can go back to 2000 nominal prices.

The real winners have been people who bought in the late 1990s or 2000-2002 span and were able to refinance to the low rates now.

[andymajumder]

I don’t see how we can get back to 2000 nominal prices in at least the desirable areas of San Diego. Looking at the chart of historical mortgage rates it seems like rates were ~6.5% in 2000. Right now it is possible to get 30 yr fixed at 4.5%. This makes a big difference to how much people can afford, so unless interest rates shoot up, I don’t see how we can go back to 2000 nominal prices.

The real winners have been people who bought in the late 1990s or 2000-2002 span and were able to refinance to the low rates now.

[andymajumder]

I don’t see how we can get back to 2000 nominal prices in at least the desirable areas of San Diego. Looking at the chart of historical mortgage rates it seems like rates were ~6.5% in 2000. Right now it is possible to get 30 yr fixed at 4.5%. This makes a big difference to how much people can afford, so unless interest rates shoot up, I don’t see how we can go back to 2000 nominal prices.

The real winners have been people who bought in the late 1990s or 2000-2002 span and were able to refinance to the low rates now.

[andymajumder]

I don’t see how we can get back to 2000 nominal prices in at least the desirable areas of San Diego. Looking at the chart of historical mortgage rates it seems like rates were ~6.5% in 2000. Right now it is possible to get 30 yr fixed at 4.5%. This makes a big difference to how much people can afford, so unless interest rates shoot up, I don’t see how we can go back to 2000 nominal prices.

The real winners have been people who bought in the late 1990s or 2000-2002 span and were able to refinance to the low rates now.

[andymajumder]

I don’t see how we can get back to 2000 nominal prices in at least the desirable areas of San Diego. Looking at the chart of historical mortgage rates it seems like rates were ~6.5% in 2000. Right now it is possible to get 30 yr fixed at 4.5%. This makes a big difference to how much people can afford, so unless interest rates shoot up, I don’t see how we can go back to 2000 nominal prices.

The real winners have been people who bought in the late 1990s or 2000-2002 span and were able to refinance to the low rates now.

[SD Realtor]

I am not so sure that the post was meant to be a prediction post. I think of all the posts FSD and UCGAL where the most I agree with. The main point which evidently was not made well, is that the inventory growth and poor active pending ratios may bode well for many of the submarkets that they are affecting. This is more of a short term prognostication. These are leading indicators that are followed up by pricing a few months later.

Don’t worry we will all be told that it was Bushes fault anyways.

[SD Realtor]

I am not so sure that the post was meant to be a prediction post. I think of all the posts FSD and UCGAL where the most I agree with. The main point which evidently was not made well, is that the inventory growth and poor active pending ratios may bode well for many of the submarkets that they are affecting. This is more of a short term prognostication. These are leading indicators that are followed up by pricing a few months later.

Don’t worry we will all be told that it was Bushes fault anyways.

[SD Realtor]

I am not so sure that the post was meant to be a prediction post. I think of all the posts FSD and UCGAL where the most I agree with. The main point which evidently was not made well, is that the inventory growth and poor active pending ratios may bode well for many of the submarkets that they are affecting. This is more of a short term prognostication. These are leading indicators that are followed up by pricing a few months later.

Don’t worry we will all be told that it was Bushes fault anyways.

[SD Realtor]

I am not so sure that the post was meant to be a prediction post. I think of all the posts FSD and UCGAL where the most I agree with. The main point which evidently was not made well, is that the inventory growth and poor active pending ratios may bode well for many of the submarkets that they are affecting. This is more of a short term prognostication. These are leading indicators that are followed up by pricing a few months later.

Don’t worry we will all be told that it was Bushes fault anyways.

[Author]

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