The stock market is tanking, we should be happy right????

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=kev374]yeah the market fell today but considering the insane news in past years the market would’ve probably fallen 10-15% in a single day but instead it’s down 1%… this tells me the bull market is alive and well.[/quote]

Which bear market has stock falls 10-15% in a single day?

Edit: I got my answer. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_S%26P_500_Index

The only real bear market for this to happen was in Great Depression. The great dotcom bust doesn’t have a single day drop ranked in top 20. That’s why I asked the original question because I remember bear market is usually characterized by slow decline instead.

[Anonymous]

I still don’t have clear guidance about whether we should be happy.

[Coronita]

futures down big on trump’s new china tariffs

Good timing. close to the end of the month, time make the monthly index purchases and 529 contribution

[Anonymous]

[quote=flu]futures down big on trump’s new china tariffs

Good timing. close to the end of the month, time make the monthly index purchases and 529 contribution[/quote]

And ignore the loss on last month’s contribution.

Dollar-cost-averaging is a gimmick invented by investment “advisors” to get you to keep putting money into the market without thinking.

It’s the stock market equivalent of the fruit of the month club.

[henrysd]

[quote=harvey]
Dollar-cost-averaging is a gimmick invented by investment “advisors” to get you to keep putting money into the market without thinking.[/quote]

Only true in small degree. dollar cost average has mathematical law behind to back it to be a better way for long term investors.
Harmonic mean >= arithmetic mean >= geometric mean

Harmonic Mean = n/(1/a1 + 1/n2 +… + 1/an)
Arithmetic mean = (a1 + a2 + …+ an)/n
Geometric mean = nth root of (a1 x a2 x … x an)

Cost cost average is using harmonic mean, so in the long run produces better return. The volatility actually more benefit harmonic mean. Geometric mean is the effective annualized return for the holding period.

The there means are equal only when a1, a2 …, an are all equal when no volatility in stocks at all.

[Coronita]

[quote=henrysd][quote=harvey]
Dollar-cost-averaging is a gimmick invented by investment “advisors” to get you to keep putting money into the market without thinking.[/quote]

Only true in small degree. dollar cost average has mathematical law behind to back it to be a better way for long term investors.
Harmonic mean >= arithmetic mean >= geometric mean

Harmonic Mean = n/(1/a1 + 1/n2 +… + 1/an)
Arithmetic mean = (a1 + a2 + …+ an)/n
Geometric mean = nth root of (a1 x a2 x … x an)

Cost cost average is using harmonic mean, so in the long run produces better return. The volatility actually more benefit harmonic mean. Geometric mean is the effective annualized return for the holding period.

The there means are equal only when a1, a2 …, an are all equal when no volatility in stocks at all.[/quote]

worked fine for me for the past 20 years. better than trying to actively manage and put all my eggs in one shot at the wrong time. especially like if I put all my eggs all at once right before a market correction.

worked fine for my kids 529 too. no student loan needed for 4 years or 6 years of public in state school. whohoo. of course I won’t tell them that. lol.

[Coronita]

Dow down 700+ pts lol.

[Coronita]

China just slapped a $3billion tariff on us goods partly from trumpland…. grab your popcorn boys and girls…… the fun is just getting started.

Dow futures off another 100….lol

[FlyerInHi]

Whenever Trump Is cornered he doubles down by doing something that rallies his base. Like always his base applauds at his badass moves although they always end up hurting them.

There is no deliberate thinking in any of this. Billions of dollars of wealth evaporated away really smart, really.

[spdrun]

Much as I loathe Trump and the small-minded authoritarianism that he stands for, I’m not entirely against the tariffs on electronics and other Chinese/Far Eastern made trinkets.

(1) They’re a consumption tax on discretionary items like electronics and cars. Lower income tax + consumption tax that hits wealthy people who buy everything new isn’t a bad way to go. In some ways, it’s the equivalent of a VAT that exists in Europe and Canada, but only on foreign-made goods. Less wealthy people (read, us poors) can get around it by buying used or keeping things longer.

(2) They’ll encourage Americans to fix their electronics and keep them longer, not make more e-waste when a battery dies or a connector breaks. I’ve literally picked electronics off the street on curb day where the only problem was a broken prong on the power plug. Electronics are notoriously hard to recycle or dispose of in an environmentally kosher manner.

(3) This might actually encourage production of electronics designed to last longer. Not stuff with glued-in batteries and epoxied cases (Apple, MS, looking at you) as has become the fad recently. Planned obsolescence is an awful trend.

(4) They internalize the cost of buying things made in poor labor conditions and with little environmental oversight. As it is, we’re exporting our pollution to countries like China. And ultimately, pollution doesn’t stop at national borders. If this makes even a small dent in our consume-and-destroy economy, this will be a good thing for the Earth.

[henrysd]

I don’t think Trump’s tough ball play against China is really intended in a trade war, just a strategy to force concession from China. Ultimately China has more reasons to back down, give up something and enter negotiation. Who is more afraid of losing? of course Chinese side. China had $375 billion trade surplus vs U.S. last year, now U.S. wants a cut, I don’t see enough reason China wants to ruin surplus status even the new $275b annual value is not bad at all. The tough mouth talk each side is only in superficial level. U.S. has other trade alternatives to go besides China – Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippine etc.

[Anonymous]

[quote=henrysd]I don’t think Trump’s tough ball play against China is really intended in a trade war, just a strategy to force concession from China. Ultimately China has more reasons to back down, give up something and enter negotiation. Who is more afraid of losing? of course Chinese side. China had $375 billion trade surplus vs U.S. last year, now U.S. wants a cut, I don’t see enough reason China wants to ruin surplus status even the new $275b annual value is not bad at all. The tough mouth talk each side is only in superficial level. U.S. has other trade alternatives to go besides China – Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippine etc.[/quote]

China is going to back down from what?

[henrysd]

[quote=harvey][quote=henrysd]I don’t think Trump’s tough ball play against China is really intended in a trade war, just a strategy to force concession from China. Ultimately China has more reasons to back down, give up something and enter negotiation. Who is more afraid of losing? of course Chinese side. China had $375 billion trade surplus vs U.S. last year, now U.S. wants a cut, I don’t see enough reason China wants to ruin surplus status even the new $275b annual value is not bad at all. The tough mouth talk each side is only in superficial level. U.S. has other trade alternatives to go besides China – Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippine etc.[/quote]

China is going to back down from what?[/quote]
From trade war position

[FlyerInHi]

As a sinophile, I’m disheartened at how Americans’ view of China is so behind the times. There are so many business opportunities we are overlooking. China is moving so fast that China today is not the same as China a mere 10 years ago. Even Chinese people can’t keep up with the changes.

Trump’s been repeating the same things about trade deficits for the last 30 years. And currency manipulation? The yuan used to be around 8 to USD, It’s about 6 now.

First, It’s not clear what Trump is negotiating for.

Second, Americans are so addicted to consumption that tariffs many not even lower imports than much. The tariffs could just be a tax that partly offset the recent tax cuts.

Third, Chinese retaliation will hit American agriculture and Boeing.

Fourth, the Chinese are happy to cede cheap productions to countries such as Vietnam and Myanmar so those countries can buy their exports such as high speed trains, telecom, solar, electronics and other infrastructure. Thailand,s prime minister just approved a HSR joint venture. Thailand and other belt and road countries will get HSR before we do.

Fifth, technology transfer is inevitable. American companies complain but they already made the bargain that access to the Chinese market is worth it. Of course, there is opportunity to press China for IP protection and to allow wholly owned American companies to operate in China. Furthermore, by blocking some high tech exports, the US is losing sales. Companies need sales and revenues to keep innovating.

Sixth, China is happy for the US to get fixated on steel, coal, agriculture and old economy stuff. The future is in tech. Their great firewall works very well and they can block American companies while they build their national champions. Some companies like Airbnb are allowed to operate extraterritorially into China for now. That may end.

The pivot to Asia was smart but so far it has been a failure. And whywas there even a need to pivot to Asia? We should have been there all along! Pretty much as the US was busy fighting terorism, China completely transformed itself to be our equal economic rival. China’s advantage now is that they know how to build infrastructure fast and cost effectively. They are aiming to export the expertise and building on that advantage with Belt and Road. Trump s isolationism and withdrawal from the international institutions we built is a gift to China. We are going to be the poorer for it

[Coronita]

even better news is the price of gold is marching towards $1350 again….maybe we will see over $1400 at year end.

[Author]

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