Spring Housing Prediction

[gandalf]

Sticking my neck out, I’m calling a short-lived rally.

The $31T figure is equities. The total decline will end up being higher. Wealth is going up in smoke. There’s $20T of fictitious value in ABS/MBS. $50T CDS market is bust. Nobody knows the scope of what’s out there, bad obligations, insolvent balance sheets. My guess? Global equivalent of $100T will have gone away when all is said and done. Let’s be optimistic and call it $70T.

To put this in perspective, US GDP is about $14T. That’s the sum total of everything bought, sold and traded by everyone in America for an entire year. The global economy will outright lose the equivalent of 5 years of US economic output in the next 2-3 years. That’s just massive. It’s huge, and it’s bad. Right now, it’s a big game of Russian Roulette to see which companies and countries take the bullet.

So, here’s what I think: sdrealtor’s right — sales are up right now. That’s the SoCal housing market in November 2008. The activity is understandable. Lots of bubble dollars still floating around with nowhere to park them. Not even in the bank anymore. And let’s face it, prices are relatively low in certain areas if you assume normal levels of employment, income, rents, etc.

The others are right long-term. The economy is in severe contraction at this point, massive layoffs, balance sheet failures, painful widespread economic dislocation and re-structuring in the next 1-2 years ahead. It’s creating tremendous uncertainty for those trying to run businesses and balance budgets for their organization. We’re all hunkering down. There’s simply no economic growth on the horizon to support another run-up in housing.

What we’re witnessing right now is a short-term rally on the way down to a fundamentally different economic position.

[Mark Holmes]

Gandalf, I think you may be as wise as your fictional namesake…

[Mark Holmes]

Gandalf, I think you may be as wise as your fictional namesake…

[Mark Holmes]

Gandalf, I think you may be as wise as your fictional namesake…

[Mark Holmes]

Gandalf, I think you may be as wise as your fictional namesake…

[Mark Holmes]

Gandalf, I think you may be as wise as your fictional namesake…

[cashflow]

sdr, see how anxious we all are to talk housing again?!?

I have to respect what you and other realtors out there are seeing and predict, however…I simply can’t imagine those 600k + homes really moving into a spring bounce of any sorts. Money is getting tighter, the layoffs are starting to really hit home, millions lost in investments, more negative news, etc etc…on the news tonight the talk of the US auto industry and how it affects numerous SD business including the dealers who have already laid off or closed their doors.

When stock prices dip this drastically, companies can’t raise cash, higher paying SD jobs are at risk…in addition, have you looked at the current Employment opportunities in SD? They are nonexistent, the jobs that are there, are not high paying, and don’t support a 600k + home purchase!

I agree with SD R, I think currently there are bubblesitters that are tired and exhausted of waiting it out (I have to admit it’s not easy), but these buyers will quickly be burned through, and what buying pool is left for the high priced areas?

I personally look at what’s on the market in good school districts in the 500k+ price range and for this you get a run down junker….no thanks.

I think we have just begun to feel the pain in the higher end areas…as foreign money gets squeezed more as well…the momentum of sales as of late will slow greatly…not a bounce, but time will tell!

[cashflow]

sdr, see how anxious we all are to talk housing again?!?

I have to respect what you and other realtors out there are seeing and predict, however…I simply can’t imagine those 600k + homes really moving into a spring bounce of any sorts. Money is getting tighter, the layoffs are starting to really hit home, millions lost in investments, more negative news, etc etc…on the news tonight the talk of the US auto industry and how it affects numerous SD business including the dealers who have already laid off or closed their doors.

When stock prices dip this drastically, companies can’t raise cash, higher paying SD jobs are at risk…in addition, have you looked at the current Employment opportunities in SD? They are nonexistent, the jobs that are there, are not high paying, and don’t support a 600k + home purchase!

I agree with SD R, I think currently there are bubblesitters that are tired and exhausted of waiting it out (I have to admit it’s not easy), but these buyers will quickly be burned through, and what buying pool is left for the high priced areas?

I personally look at what’s on the market in good school districts in the 500k+ price range and for this you get a run down junker….no thanks.

I think we have just begun to feel the pain in the higher end areas…as foreign money gets squeezed more as well…the momentum of sales as of late will slow greatly…not a bounce, but time will tell!

[cashflow]

sdr, see how anxious we all are to talk housing again?!?

I have to respect what you and other realtors out there are seeing and predict, however…I simply can’t imagine those 600k + homes really moving into a spring bounce of any sorts. Money is getting tighter, the layoffs are starting to really hit home, millions lost in investments, more negative news, etc etc…on the news tonight the talk of the US auto industry and how it affects numerous SD business including the dealers who have already laid off or closed their doors.

When stock prices dip this drastically, companies can’t raise cash, higher paying SD jobs are at risk…in addition, have you looked at the current Employment opportunities in SD? They are nonexistent, the jobs that are there, are not high paying, and don’t support a 600k + home purchase!

I agree with SD R, I think currently there are bubblesitters that are tired and exhausted of waiting it out (I have to admit it’s not easy), but these buyers will quickly be burned through, and what buying pool is left for the high priced areas?

I personally look at what’s on the market in good school districts in the 500k+ price range and for this you get a run down junker….no thanks.

I think we have just begun to feel the pain in the higher end areas…as foreign money gets squeezed more as well…the momentum of sales as of late will slow greatly…not a bounce, but time will tell!

[cashflow]

sdr, see how anxious we all are to talk housing again?!?

I have to respect what you and other realtors out there are seeing and predict, however…I simply can’t imagine those 600k + homes really moving into a spring bounce of any sorts. Money is getting tighter, the layoffs are starting to really hit home, millions lost in investments, more negative news, etc etc…on the news tonight the talk of the US auto industry and how it affects numerous SD business including the dealers who have already laid off or closed their doors.

When stock prices dip this drastically, companies can’t raise cash, higher paying SD jobs are at risk…in addition, have you looked at the current Employment opportunities in SD? They are nonexistent, the jobs that are there, are not high paying, and don’t support a 600k + home purchase!

I agree with SD R, I think currently there are bubblesitters that are tired and exhausted of waiting it out (I have to admit it’s not easy), but these buyers will quickly be burned through, and what buying pool is left for the high priced areas?

I personally look at what’s on the market in good school districts in the 500k+ price range and for this you get a run down junker….no thanks.

I think we have just begun to feel the pain in the higher end areas…as foreign money gets squeezed more as well…the momentum of sales as of late will slow greatly…not a bounce, but time will tell!

[cashflow]

sdr, see how anxious we all are to talk housing again?!?

I have to respect what you and other realtors out there are seeing and predict, however…I simply can’t imagine those 600k + homes really moving into a spring bounce of any sorts. Money is getting tighter, the layoffs are starting to really hit home, millions lost in investments, more negative news, etc etc…on the news tonight the talk of the US auto industry and how it affects numerous SD business including the dealers who have already laid off or closed their doors.

When stock prices dip this drastically, companies can’t raise cash, higher paying SD jobs are at risk…in addition, have you looked at the current Employment opportunities in SD? They are nonexistent, the jobs that are there, are not high paying, and don’t support a 600k + home purchase!

I agree with SD R, I think currently there are bubblesitters that are tired and exhausted of waiting it out (I have to admit it’s not easy), but these buyers will quickly be burned through, and what buying pool is left for the high priced areas?

I personally look at what’s on the market in good school districts in the 500k+ price range and for this you get a run down junker….no thanks.

I think we have just begun to feel the pain in the higher end areas…as foreign money gets squeezed more as well…the momentum of sales as of late will slow greatly…not a bounce, but time will tell!

[gandalf]

Thanks, Mark. Cautiously optimistic the FIRE market bear doesn’t take us all out.

Best,
G

[gandalf]

Thanks, Mark. Cautiously optimistic the FIRE market bear doesn’t take us all out.

Best,
G

[gandalf]

Thanks, Mark. Cautiously optimistic the FIRE market bear doesn’t take us all out.

Best,
G

[gandalf]

Thanks, Mark. Cautiously optimistic the FIRE market bear doesn’t take us all out.

Best,
G

[Author]

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