Some areas have less than a month inventory

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

… also, these may be zoned commercial. who knows ?
Anyway, not much potential for new coastal development.

[CA renter]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=jpinpb]Well, I had the thought there’s not much buildable land along the coast, but just driving back from Carlsbad along the 5 south there is a LOT of mowed down, graded land. I mean a LOT. Not sure what’s getting built, but surprisingly, there’s still land that’s available to be built. I want to say it’s the Leucadia area, west of 5 where I saw the graded land. In that vicinty thereabouts.[/quote]

If you look at google maps there are two reasonable areas west of the I-5 between Carlsbad and Del Mar. One of these looks to be directly adjacent to a water treatment plant, just south of Palomar airport road.

The other, larger area is just south of Santa Fe Drive. I estimate that at the same density as the surrounding neighborhood, this area could include 80-100 SFHs. If it’s made more dense, like most modern places, maybe 200 SFHs.

So, at best that’s 100-200 homes developed over say 2-3 years.
That’s not a lot. Consider that North San Diego County had 54 listings added for sale in just the first 5 days of 2013 per http://www.bubbleinfo.com[/quote%5D

If the southern parcel is the land that I’m thinking of, that’s the Hall property. It’s the typical public boondoggle, IMHO, where the city overpaid for land that ended up needing tons of environmental work (former greenhouses — which are an environmental nightmare for developers — and some smaller homes), and then ended up in a long period of legal wrangling between a variety of special interests and the city. It’s been going on for over a decade, IIRC. I think they are finally going to start construction on the park (designed by special interests, do the detriment of other special interests) this year.

http://encinitasundercover.blogspot.com/2010/04/hall-property-park-development.html

I’m guessing the northern property would be the Carlsbad strawberry fields. Lots of back-and-forth between the city and various developers (and the Chargers) on that one, too. Looks like a developer is going to buy it and allow the local citizens to have more input in how it’s developed.

http://www.nctimes.com/business/retail-developer-will-buy-part-of-carlsbad-strawberry-fields/article_ffe9d38e-a8d1-5b57-8f79-5c69408b9d86.html

[bearishgurl]

[quote=sdduuuude]BG – you misquoted him.

He said “a lot more buildable land”

not

“a lot of buildable land”[/quote]

Regardless, sdduuuude, the SD East County areas within 30 mi of dtn SD (or OB, if you go straight on I-8, instead), are ESTablished. And the areas zoned 3 units to an acre (or less) are full of VERY UNindebted (read: “established”) owners and VERY well-heeled families.

My experience out there has been that most Gen X owners (still raising a family) who are living in SD East County on =<3 units/AC lots are an anomaly, of sorts, in comparison to a "typical" SD County homeowner raising a family. I have come to the conclusion that there are no doubt thousands of East County homeowners who can actually live anywhere they want. They either have relatives they need to be near in East County, a business out there and/or need a property suitable for large animals. These owners are driving pickups to work and paying much lesser mortgages for a custom home with more land and have no MR, unlike the typical North County suburban/exurban tract-dwelling parent who is striving for a particular “lifestyle.”

Contrary to “popular belief,” SD East County is not a “ghetto.” Of course, like nearly ALL other micro areas in CA, it has its “low-income” pockets. But it also has many fabulous areas to live in. Really, if one doesn’t have to commute over 40 mins to work from there, the only drawback I see to living there is the need for A/C part of the year.

I like East County’s communities for the fact its jurisdictions didn’t have the massive land tracts available for Big Development to come in and build “planned communities” with shacks 3′ from one another and charge exorbitant MR to all the *new* owners. This practice caused nothing in recent years but grief, distress and foreclosure which adversely affected ALL adjacent property owners. Southeastern Chula Vista is a prime example of this sad debacle. I was on one of those “shack” streets (circa 2001) in that area last night and an oncoming car had to pull into a driveway (no st pkg avail) in order for my vehicle to pass thru. It was a street of single family homes! In addition, the driver could only pull her Honda Accord partway into the driveway because it was not long enough for her *entire* car :=0

I looked up the street on SDLookup and SDTax this morning and it not only has 8 recorded currently distressed properties and two tax defaults on it, the avg shack on it currently sells for about $250K!

Ask yourselves what positive things communities like the above have done for longtime surrounding homeowners.

Every so often, I read comments on this board that dismiss SD East County is somehow primarily “low-income” or a “lesser” place to live than SD or North County. Absolutely NOTHING could be further from the truth. Many parts of it are positively dripping with money.

And no, I have never resided in East County and have no contracts with any Chambers of Commerces out there.

[end of rant]

[enron_by_the_sea]

So I got the following letter in the mail today.

[quote]

My name is XXX

I have clients who are looking to buy a twinhome in your subdivision of xxxx, they are willing to pay you full value in today’s market. Please let me know if you are thinking to sell your home. We have a loan in place and are ready to go as soon as we can find the right property.

…..
Realtor XXX

[/quote]

The funny thing, however, is that I just refinanced and the appraisal came in quite low – quite a bit lower than even late-2010, when I last refinanced. So I am not sure what to believe.

IMO even if there is great demand+low inventory out there, appraisers are not going to let the prices rise much for some time to come.

[an]

[quote=enron_by_the_sea]The funny thing, however, is that I just refinanced and the appraisal came in quite low – quite a bit lower than even late-2010, when I last refinanced. So I am not sure what to believe.

IMO even if there is great demand+low inventory out there, appraisers are not going to let the prices rise much for some time to come.[/quote]
I hate appraisers. Most have no idea what they’re doing.

[scaredyclassic]

I talked with my last appraiser after the appraisal, just small talk. She was local, and very very very pro temecula. I wonder if someone local who loves the area is predisposed to err on the side of higher valuations?

[gzz]

My appraisel when I refi’d was absurdly low. Piggington shows a 10-15% increase from the bottom, but it came in at what I paid at the bottom, actually less when you account for renovations. Meanwhile smaller houses on smaller lots keep selling for 50k+ more than the appraisel. This could have been an issue if I were closer to 80% LTV.

Then there is the absurdity that appraisals on purchases always come in at exactly the purchase price. So if I had a buyer at the real market price, the same appraiser would have given a much different estimate.

[jpinpb]

[quote=AN]I hate appraisers. Most have no idea what they’re doing.[/quote]

Wish Rich would have a like button. 😉

One thing we can agree on. Appraisers are either very lazy and don’t care about doing a good job, very busy and can’t be bothered do to their job right, or just plain stupid.

[jpinpb]

I’ll add that it is my belief that some of these appraisers ARE working w/the lenders to come in at a price that suits the lenders and their criteria and to benefit the lenders.

[SD Realtor]

Appraisers are not hired by lenders anymore and have not been for the past few years. They are hired by appraisal management companies. There is no contact between an appraiser and a lender.

[enron_by_the_sea]

[quote=SD Realtor]Appraisers are not hired by lenders anymore and have not been for the past few years. They are hired by appraisal management companies. There is no contact between an appraiser and a lender.[/quote]

SDR is correct. I don’t think appraiser hitting some number for the lender/borrower is an issue anymore. However we have crossed over to the other extreme – these days appraisers seem to have every incentive to be as conservative as possible. Which is OK but it would slow down any rebound in prices. ( And without some modest rebound in prices, we are probably not going to see any inventory… )

[SD Realtor]

At the onset of the new law it was brutal. We were getting appraisers who were unfamiliar with neighborhoods coming in to do appraisals and it was a clusterfck… You cannot always rely on comps on the computer as every neighborhood has inconsistencies that can have dramatic effects on valuations in small geographical areas. Over the past year or two we have seen improvement in this arena and now it seems that the appraisal management companies are at least hiring appraisers who have more experience in the locations that they are performing appraisals in. The “conservative” nature of appraisals is not really in the pricing anymore. The comp wheel has already been grinding forward for a few years now so prices are steadily moving up. What bogs appraisers down now is that the guidelines for the appraisals are tight. That is, you have to have x number of recent sales to support the price conclusion or you must have y number of actives or pendings… In many cases the guidelines cannot be met and exceptions are needed. So the process can be pretty … gummy…

With all this said if anything, it seems to me we are getting closer to the good old days. Appraisals do for the most part now come in at sales price… The bottom line is… housing prices are going up and there is really nothing to stop them except interest rates.

[jpinpb]

I know that “technically” there is no contact between appraiser and lender. I can tell you I know a broker that knows a lender and off the record, they can come in at any number requested, high or low.

[Ren]

[quote=jpinpb]I know that “technically” there is no contact between appraiser and lender. I can tell you I know a broker that knows a lender and off the record, they can come in at any number requested, high or low.[/quote]

They do have every incentive to make each other happy.

[SD Realtor]

Count me skeptical.

Things always can be traced to the secondary market. The one that used to exist was robust. The one of today is not, it is simply the GSEs. In order for a GSE to purchase a loan the originator must stick to some stringent guidelines including the hiring of an appraisal management company to get the appraiser.

It doesn’t matter if a broker knows a lender or not. Now an exception may be that the particular lender you are referring to will portfolio the loan and not sell it to a GSE. Then the rules do not apply however that is far from the norm these days.

Conceivably your broker may know the appraisal management company and can always insure they will use his appraisal pal for each listing and that the appraisal management company when they review the appraisal will always okay it then yes I guess it can happen. However your assertion is jumping through some fairly tricky hoops.

The bottom line is that it is not hard for properties to appraise anymore. Like I said the train has left the station and prices are up and moving higher faster. When the bottom fell out lenders were actually buffering in space on the low end of appraised values for many neighborhoods. Now it is opposite.

Also there is absolutely no incentive for an appraiser to make any broker happy. The appraiser gets paid no matter what. The broker CANNOT order an appraisal. The lender does and that is a phone call to an appraisal management company, that is it. The only contact is when the appraiser calls the listing agent to get access to the home. Sorry but there is no conspiracy here. Blame the policies of the government from 2007 on that prevented wholesale price reductions in real estate by manipulating the market. They won, the consumers lost. The market is running hot again with no signs of letting up.

As much as you want to push some appraisal/broker conspiracy it is not happening. At least not with loans being purchased by any GSEs.

[Author]

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