Some areas have less than a month inventory

[an]

[quote=Jazzman]Ctr70 the median can prduce results all over the shop. Look at Rich’s comments for condos recently. I’d definitely put more weight on CS[/quote]
Rich’s comments for condos recently is correctly. But I don’t recall him saying the same about median price. He also said CS # are backward looking and stale. Just like what ctr70 said. If you look at $/sq-ft # from 5-6 months ago, that match up with what CS data shows, which is pretty flat. But over the last 5-6 months, price went up a lot. You can click on the link on the bottom right of this site.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=Jazzman]I agree with livinincali there definitely seems to be time lags produced by buyer and seller perceptions which affects supply and demand…[/quote]

This has always been the case. It will never change so we must live with it. This phenomenon is even inherent in *normal* markets (whatever that’s supposed to mean).

[jpinpb]

92117 inventory is down 75% from last year. 92107 is down 67% from last year. This according to Redfin. As for interest rates, I had seen it as low as 3.125 for a 30 year fixed on bankrate.com for re-fi with 740+ score and 80% LTV.

[flyer]

Along with our neighborhood, family members own homes in 92107 (Sunset Cliffs), 92106 (Point Loma), 92037 (LJ), etc. etc., and all have noticed the low inventory as well.

Since we all bought our homes many years ago, it’s really a moot point, but still interesting to see another cycle play out.

Should be extremely interesting to see what happens in the next 5-10 years with so little “buildable land” left in desirable areas. It could present a real challenge for future buyers.

[CA renter]

[quote=ctr70]It’s amazing to me that everyone criticized & demonized Greenspan so intensely for keeping rates so low for so long and playing such a big part in the housing bubble, yet Bernake is doing the exact same thing now. No way prices would be rising if 30 yr fixed rates were at a long term average of 6-8%. With a 3.5% rate right now, they are going to have to stay low for a long, long time for prices to keep rising and not fall. Or we would need incomes to start rising at a healthy clip to accompany a rate rise & house prices to not fall.

I mean freaking 3.5% 30 yr fixed. This is not even close to anything anyone has seen since the 19th century![/quote]

I think that quite a few of us have criticized and demonized Bernanke for suppressing interest rates. He is killing savers and fixed-income earners…and blowing more bubbles that will have devastating consequences (IMHO). I think the bond bubble that is a continuation of the credit bubble that caused all the problems in ~2008, when/if it bursts, is going to make 2008 look like a non-event, especially when one considers what it will do to the govt’s debt burden.

[Jazzman]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=Jazzman]I agree with livinincali there definitely seems to be time lags produced by buyer and seller perceptions which affects supply and demand…[/quote]

This has always been the case. It will never change so we must live with it. This phenomenon is even inherent in *normal* markets (whatever that’s supposed to mean).[/quote]
Not sure that’s true. One big factor has been the internet and the amount of information freely available. Absent from the heated forums on RE are sellers/homeowners, outnumbered 10:1 buy buyers and fence sitters. The incentive to educate oneself seems to be higher before making a huge financial commitment, than after making it.

[Jazzman]

[quote=AN][quote=Jazzman]Ctr70 the median can prduce results all over the shop. Look at Rich’s comments for condos recently. I’d definitely put more weight on CS[/quote]
Rich’s comments for condos recently is correctly. But I don’t recall him saying the same about median price. He also said CS # are backward looking and stale. Just like what ctr70 said. If you look at $/sq-ft # from 5-6 months ago, that match up with what CS data shows, which is pretty flat. But over the last 5-6 months, price went up a lot. You can click on the link on the bottom right of this site.[/quote]

How much is a lot? And what is driving it? How much does it matter what is driving it? I just hear the same pre-bubble drum pulsating just beneath the surface, scarcely able to constrain the ferment as it grasps at it’s old friend ‘greed and stupidity’, discarding cautionary notes and rationale with its usual careless abandon. You know, good luck to you, if that is what you want.

[an]

[quote=Jazzman]How much is a lot? And what is driving it? How much does it matter what is driving it? I just hear the same pre-bubble drum pulsating just beneath the surface, scarcely able to constrain the ferment as it grasps at it’s old friend ‘greed and stupidity’, discarding cautionary notes and rationale with its usual careless abandon. You know, good luck to you, if that is what you want.[/quote]
I’m sure you can look at the data yourself. It’s not that hard, just click on the chart at the bottom right of the page. As to what’s driving it, your guess is as good as mine. I’m neither a permabull nor a permabear. I’m just a realist and state the data as it presents itself. I’ve been around here for over 7 years and have been beating the bear drums before the crash and throughout the crash. But I switch gear when it became much cheaper to buy than rent from day one. I got even more bullish in areas where cap rates become 7-8%+. You didn’t find me beating the bull drum in 2004 much less 2006-7 when it start to decline and you won’t see me beating the bear drums today. When price has risen over 10% w/in 1 year AND PITI is cheaper than rent.

I’m neither greedy nor stupid nor discard cautionary notes and rationales. I look at data and come up with my conclusion. I’m glad you have to resort to personal attacks to prove your points. Especially when you can’t back it up with data and numbers. I can easily back mine up with cap rate, PITI vs rent, etc.

[scaredyclassic]

Animal spirits drive everything we do.

[Ren]

*bump*

Inventory is very slightly better in Temecula than the coast where I’m always looking, but prices are still rising and getting silly in many cases, especially on the low end.

Just for fun, I put a zillow “make me move” price on our house which I thought was ridiculous – 25% higher than our purchase price 3 years ago, even higher than a recent sold comp which I also thought was ridiculous.

The next day I got an email from someone who sounded desperate to buy it. I explained that we haven’t made the decision, just gauging interest.

[The-Shoveler]

Near the coast there is just not a lot of buildable land IMO and what is there is very costly to develop.

Out in east county and SWRC there is a lot more buildable land so I would expect that to keep a lid on prices for a while yet.

Near the coast I would expect things will get more and more ridiculous as far as price. JMHO.

The above might change if something like super storm sandy hit SoCal. I guess we wait and see.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=The-Shoveler]Near the coast there is just not a lot of buildable land IMO and what is there is very costly to develop.

Out in east county and SWRC there is a lot more buildable land so I would expect that to keep a lid on prices for a while yet.

Near the coast I would expect things will get more and more ridiculous as far as price. JMHO.

The above might change if something like super storm sandy hit SoCal. I guess we wait and see.[/quote]

Shoveler, there is NOT `a lot of buildable land’ in SD East County. The vast majority of east county areas within 30 miles of dtn SD are very well established, some est as far back as 1930.

Building is not allowed on rocky mountaintops. And there is too much community opposition to increasing density in areas of 1 AC+ lots so that will never happen, IMHO.

If you are referring to rural east county and the mountains, what available parcels with utilities at the ready are far and few between and a construction or take-out lender would still require a VERY costly fire policy to be in place before the commencement of construction. Those parcels without utilities will undoubtedly be VERY costly for today’s specuvester to bring them in. MWD access and utility meter fees, in every jurisdiction, have risen repeatedly since 2000.

The above also applies to semi-rural and rural SD North County.

The reality is that there is VERY little to zero land available in SD County for tract or spec development, period, which is not already owned by developers or a single infill lot with a demolishable structure on it.

And I would not advise “waiting” to see if a tsunami hits the CA coastal areas to buy there.

If the “coast” where you want to move next, I would advise selling your inland property forthwith, lowering your standards re: your dwelling “requirements” and buying a coastal property ASAP. OR, buying a coastal property and renting out your inland property after you close escrow, if you can afford to do so.

It doesn’t get any better than this, folks. The (native San Diegan) horse left its barn several years ago and is “lost” on the trails.

[sdduuuude]

BG – you misquoted him.

He said “a lot more buildable land”

not

“a lot of buildable land”

[jpinpb]

Well, I had the thought there’s not much buildable land along the coast, but just driving back from Carlsbad along the 5 south there is a LOT of mowed down, graded land. I mean a LOT. Not sure what’s getting built, but surprisingly, there’s still land that’s available to be built. I want to say it’s the Leucadia area, west of 5 where I saw the graded land. In that vicinty thereabouts.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=jpinpb]Well, I had the thought there’s not much buildable land along the coast, but just driving back from Carlsbad along the 5 south there is a LOT of mowed down, graded land. I mean a LOT. Not sure what’s getting built, but surprisingly, there’s still land that’s available to be built. I want to say it’s the Leucadia area, west of 5 where I saw the graded land. In that vicinty thereabouts.[/quote]

If you look at google maps there are two reasonable areas west of the I-5 between Carlsbad and Del Mar. One of these looks to be directly adjacent to a water treatment plant, just south of Palomar airport road.

The other, larger area is just south of Santa Fe Drive. I estimate that at the same density as the surrounding neighborhood, this area could include 80-100 SFHs. If it’s made more dense, like most modern places, maybe 200 SFHs.

So, at best that’s 100-200 homes developed over say 2-3 years.
That’s not a lot. Consider that North San Diego County had 54 listings added for sale in just the first 5 days of 2013 per http://www.bubbleinfo.com

[Author]

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