Slow decline or is a big chunk about to be ripped out?

[NotCranky]

We have talked about affordabilty on this thread. Is there a chart here that Rich or someone else has made comparing affordability now to historical affordability. IMHO affordability is so far out of whack in SD compared to the last cycle that it has reached rediculous proportions. I did a annectdotal study yesterday and determined that the median would have to go back to around 240k to have the same affordability I experienced while home shopping in 1995,near trough in last cycle.Median for the year was $171,600.As always,only the rich and individuals from one or two specialties which are currently in demand have gotten richer, generally speaking.

[NotCranky]

We have talked about affordabilty on this thread. Is there a chart here that Rich or someone else has made comparing affordability now to historical affordability. IMHO affordability is so far out of whack in SD compared to the last cycle that it has reached rediculous proportions. I did a annectdotal study yesterday and determined that the median would have to go back to around 240k to have the same affordability I experienced while home shopping in 1995,near trough in last cycle.Median for the year was $171,600.As always,only the rich and individuals from one or two specialties which are currently in demand have gotten richer, generally speaking.

[no_such_reality]

Is there a chart here that Rich or someone else has made comparing affordability now to historical affordability.

Rich did it here. The links are from the top of the welcome page.

Bubblebuster has their regular update which includes payment charts here.

What you see is the bubble payment to income ratio rivals the late 70s when inflation was double digit. You also see that payment to income is above 50% where as in the 87-91 bubble it peaked just above 40%.

[no_such_reality]

Is there a chart here that Rich or someone else has made comparing affordability now to historical affordability.

Rich did it here. The links are from the top of the welcome page.

Bubblebuster has their regular update which includes payment charts here.

What you see is the bubble payment to income ratio rivals the late 70s when inflation was double digit. You also see that payment to income is above 50% where as in the 87-91 bubble it peaked just above 40%.

[sdrealtor]

Rustico,
I appreciate your humor now. It has been a good thread. Hope we can have more like it going forward.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Rustico,
I appreciate your humor now. It has been a good thread. Hope we can have more like it going forward.

sdr

[startingout]

Prices are holding, inventory is dropping, but sales volume is still dropping. That means sellers are giving up selling and trying to hunker down.
In Riverside county at least, where I am tracking active inventory, sales, and % of inventory that I can afford, inventory is actually increasing. It doesn’t look like it’s increasing as quickly as it was this time last year, but it’s still definitely on a significant rise. Sales are indeed down again this month, and are at the lowest point they have been in at least two years. Prices seem to be holding, but shakily.

[startingout]

Prices are holding, inventory is dropping, but sales volume is still dropping. That means sellers are giving up selling and trying to hunker down.
In Riverside county at least, where I am tracking active inventory, sales, and % of inventory that I can afford, inventory is actually increasing. It doesn’t look like it’s increasing as quickly as it was this time last year, but it’s still definitely on a significant rise. Sales are indeed down again this month, and are at the lowest point they have been in at least two years. Prices seem to be holding, but shakily.

[NotCranky]

I mispoke,again, Im my last post. My annectdotal studies indicate that the median would be around 240K today if we were to reach the approximate affordability of the last trough. Who knows what it will actually be when we hit the next trough?

[NotCranky]

I mispoke,again, Im my last post. My annectdotal studies indicate that the median would be around 240K today if we were to reach the approximate affordability of the last trough. Who knows what it will actually be when we hit the next trough?

[NotCranky]

Hard to believe sdrealtor created this thread only two months ago.

I think we had concerns about credit contractions at the time but I don’t believe anyone spelled it out quite as it has occurred. Sales volume and inventory are pretty much tracking expectations. What evidence do we have of REO price slashing? Other catalyst for a “Big Chunk” to be ripped out or on the other hand support for a rationale of slow decline ,3%-4%, per calendar year?

I am definately not any less in the big chunk mode(10% in six months,nearer to 20% in a calendar year startin in june 2007). I wouldn’t stipulate that the median would reflect it, only that we could provide vast sales representative of those kinds of of declines occuring fairly broadly in the county. Condo conversions in some areas are definately a done deal for that. We have sporadic examples of detached SFR’s,which sometimes are rightly or wrongly concluded as fraud.

Does anyone want to weigh in anew?

[NotCranky]

Hard to believe sdrealtor created this thread only two months ago.

I think we had concerns about credit contractions at the time but I don’t believe anyone spelled it out quite as it has occurred. Sales volume and inventory are pretty much tracking expectations. What evidence do we have of REO price slashing? Other catalyst for a “Big Chunk” to be ripped out or on the other hand support for a rationale of slow decline ,3%-4%, per calendar year?

I am definately not any less in the big chunk mode(10% in six months,nearer to 20% in a calendar year startin in june 2007). I wouldn’t stipulate that the median would reflect it, only that we could provide vast sales representative of those kinds of of declines occuring fairly broadly in the county. Condo conversions in some areas are definately a done deal for that. We have sporadic examples of detached SFR’s,which sometimes are rightly or wrongly concluded as fraud.

Does anyone want to weigh in anew?

[NotCranky]

Hard to believe sdrealtor created this thread only two months ago.

I think we had concerns about credit contractions at the time but I don’t believe anyone spelled it out quite as it has occurred. Sales volume and inventory are pretty much tracking expectations. What evidence do we have of REO price slashing? Other catalyst for a “Big Chunk” to be ripped out or on the other hand support for a rationale of slow decline ,3%-4%, per calendar year?

I am definately not any less in the big chunk mode(10% in six months,nearer to 20% in a calendar year startin in june 2007). I wouldn’t stipulate that the median would reflect it, only that we could provide vast sales representative of those kinds of of declines occuring fairly broadly in the county. Condo conversions in some areas are definately a done deal for that. We have sporadic examples of detached SFR’s,which sometimes are rightly or wrongly concluded as fraud.

Does anyone want to weigh in anew?

[sdrealtor]

R,
Sounds like you are back on the Big Chunk side aftera brief period of uncertainty. After seeing all the events of the last few weeks I remain on the slow decline side based upon the stubborness of sellers to accept less.

Anote from the field: I submitted a cash offer on a property last week that IMO was 20K higher than I thought it should have been. After a few weeks of low offers my client grew impatient and said just give them what they want. The seller came back with some wacky conditions as if it was 2004 which pissed my buyer off and convinced them to renew their less for another 6 to 12 months which I have been begging them to do. It felt good to tell the seller and agent to take a flying leap.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

R,
Sounds like you are back on the Big Chunk side aftera brief period of uncertainty. After seeing all the events of the last few weeks I remain on the slow decline side based upon the stubborness of sellers to accept less.

Anote from the field: I submitted a cash offer on a property last week that IMO was 20K higher than I thought it should have been. After a few weeks of low offers my client grew impatient and said just give them what they want. The seller came back with some wacky conditions as if it was 2004 which pissed my buyer off and convinced them to renew their less for another 6 to 12 months which I have been begging them to do. It felt good to tell the seller and agent to take a flying leap.

sdr

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