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CA renter.
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June 4, 2007 at 2:43 PM #56488June 4, 2007 at 2:43 PM #56511
NotCranky
ParticipantHello SD Realtor,
You are basically saying increased mortgage interest rates?June 4, 2007 at 3:26 PM #56508SD Realtor
ParticipantYep I am… I am always surprised that most people are not aware of what drives long term mortgage interest rates.
SD Realtor
June 4, 2007 at 3:26 PM #56530ParticipantYep I am… I am always surprised that most people are not aware of what drives long term mortgage interest rates.
SD Realtor
June 4, 2007 at 3:34 PM #56516drunkle
Participantwho pays the interest on tbills? the taxpayers, i presume.
who collects the interest on fed rates? private banks.
why are tbills and mortgage rates connected?
how are americans not getting screwed 6 ways to sunday?
June 4, 2007 at 3:34 PM #56539Participantwho pays the interest on tbills? the taxpayers, i presume.
who collects the interest on fed rates? private banks.
why are tbills and mortgage rates connected?
how are americans not getting screwed 6 ways to sunday?
June 4, 2007 at 3:36 PM #56518Participantdrunkle – aye caramba… nevermind…
June 4, 2007 at 3:36 PM #56541Participantdrunkle – aye caramba… nevermind…
June 4, 2007 at 3:45 PM #56522ParticipantTreasury Market and Mortgage Rates(link)
This is suppose to be a link to an informative page on the topic of the bond market and mortgage rates.
Edit: didn’t work ..”bond market and mortgage rates” is what I searched.
I’ll try again.
http://mortgage-x.com/general/treasury.aspJune 4, 2007 at 3:45 PM #56544ParticipantTreasury Market and Mortgage Rates(link)
This is suppose to be a link to an informative page on the topic of the bond market and mortgage rates.
Edit: didn’t work ..”bond market and mortgage rates” is what I searched.
I’ll try again.
http://mortgage-x.com/general/treasury.aspJune 4, 2007 at 3:55 PM #56526Participantgot it. given a choice between a tbill and a home loan, investors want the better return. especially considering the risk.
something seems screwed up about it anyway. like, the commoditization of ownership. but i can’t put my finger on it.
June 4, 2007 at 3:55 PM #56549Participantgot it. given a choice between a tbill and a home loan, investors want the better return. especially considering the risk.
something seems screwed up about it anyway. like, the commoditization of ownership. but i can’t put my finger on it.
June 4, 2007 at 5:18 PM #56546Bugs
ParticipantTruth to tell, I doubt the correction will include a big chunk, although I think the pace of correction might move relatively quickly for a couple years, starting at beginning of the year.
Looking at past swings, the pace of decreasing markets tends to be a little slower than that of the gains that preceded them. If we look at the slope of our recent spike we can see it went almost vertical between 2003 – 2005. Obviously it won’t track down at the same pace but I think it’s very possible that the pace of decline could move a bit faster than it is doing right now. A 10% or 12% decline in nominal prices doesn’t sound like a whole lot, but if you multiply it by 3 years it starts to add up.
As a number of people have already commented, any home owner who is at all able to hold on to their home will do so. At any rate, they are not the ones for whom we should be fearful. It is the people who cannot hold on who are sitting on a must-sell transaction, whether they realize it now or not.
I think it will eventually come down to the size of the must-sell inventory vs. the size of the pool of buyers. We can see that these two numbers are moving ever closer towards each other every month. I highly doubt they’ll actually meet, but I don’t doubt that the number of must-sells will eventually comprise enough of the listings to drive the pricing for the remainder of the listings.
June 4, 2007 at 5:18 PM #56569ParticipantTruth to tell, I doubt the correction will include a big chunk, although I think the pace of correction might move relatively quickly for a couple years, starting at beginning of the year.
Looking at past swings, the pace of decreasing markets tends to be a little slower than that of the gains that preceded them. If we look at the slope of our recent spike we can see it went almost vertical between 2003 – 2005. Obviously it won’t track down at the same pace but I think it’s very possible that the pace of decline could move a bit faster than it is doing right now. A 10% or 12% decline in nominal prices doesn’t sound like a whole lot, but if you multiply it by 3 years it starts to add up.
As a number of people have already commented, any home owner who is at all able to hold on to their home will do so. At any rate, they are not the ones for whom we should be fearful. It is the people who cannot hold on who are sitting on a must-sell transaction, whether they realize it now or not.
I think it will eventually come down to the size of the must-sell inventory vs. the size of the pool of buyers. We can see that these two numbers are moving ever closer towards each other every month. I highly doubt they’ll actually meet, but I don’t doubt that the number of must-sells will eventually comprise enough of the listings to drive the pricing for the remainder of the listings.
June 4, 2007 at 6:16 PM #56576waiting hawk
ParticipantThe big declines most are hoping for will come once a recession comes in. If we do not see one by the end of this year I have told the wife I have to rethink 2 years worth of plans, but I am only watching land in an area that is not as popular so I have more faith. Watch the long rates and economy. You need one of those to go to get what you really want. You want to buy when most cannot and that my friends is why it gets cheap.
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