Shiller PE Ratio above 30

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=TheBrianNarrative]Ok you roll the dice in Vegas. We’ll see how that goes the next few years[/quote]

Flu, you do realize that Vegas was discounted 70% from previous peak and has not recovered yet? A friend bought a place in 2006 for $360k. He recently sold for $320k.
He lost bigly. That’s why one needs to time it right with recessions.

I don’t even like Vegas. But I invested there for the money. It’s an ugly sprawling city but It’s a top 10 metro where people like to live and visit. Yes, it’s gentrifying. A condo downtown is worth more than a house in the best suburbs.

When I’m old, I’ll take my USD rental income and travel the world. I can rent in places like Berlin where it’s cheaper to rent than to buy. Plus that gives me flexibility to go where I please.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=spdrun]The hotspots for COVID have been places like a suburban synagogue, a church, and a suburban-ish nursing home. Heavily-urbanized South Korea has done a much better job in controlling this mess than we did.[/quote]

Macau, Hong Kong and Taiwan, also densely populated have done very well.
https://fortune.com/2020/03/15/greater-china-coronavirus-cases-taiwan-hong-kong-macau/

The hospitals in rural America are actually ill equipped for an outbreak….. we shall see.

[Anonymous]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=TheBrianNarrative]Ok you roll the dice in Vegas. We’ll see how that goes the next few years[/quote]

Flu, you do realize that Vegas was discounted 70% from previous peak and has not recovered yet? A friend bought a place in 2006 for $360k. He recently sold for $320k.
He lost bigly. That’s why one needs to time it right with recessions.

I don’t even like Vegas. But I invested there for the money. It’s an ugly sprawling city but It’s a top 10 metro where people like to live and visit. Yes, it’s gentrifying. A condo downtown is worth more than a house in the best suburbs.

When I’m old, I’ll take my USD rental income and travel the world. I can rent in places like Berlin where it’s cheaper to rent than to buy. Plus that gives me flexibility to go where I please.[/quote]

A friend…..uh ….ok

[Anonymous]

[quote=spdrun]The hotspots for COVID have been places like a suburban synagogue, a church, and a suburban-ish nursing home. Heavily-urbanized South Korea has done a much better job in controlling this mess than we did.[/quote]

You should be fine as you have never left your parents basement

[an]

[quote=TheBrianNarrative][quote=FlyerInHi][quote=TheBrianNarrative]Ok you roll the dice in Vegas. We’ll see how that goes the next few years[/quote]

Flu, you do realize that Vegas was discounted 70% from previous peak and has not recovered yet? A friend bought a place in 2006 for $360k. He recently sold for $320k.
He lost bigly. That’s why one needs to time it right with recessions.

I don’t even like Vegas. But I invested there for the money. It’s an ugly sprawling city but It’s a top 10 metro where people like to live and visit. Yes, it’s gentrifying. A condo downtown is worth more than a house in the best suburbs.

When I’m old, I’ll take my USD rental income and travel the world. I can rent in places like Berlin where it’s cheaper to rent than to buy. Plus that gives me flexibility to go where I please.[/quote]

A friend…..uh ….ok[/quote]
LoL

[FlyerInHi]

Flu, If you want, just look at Case Shiller for Vegas. The market is not back to previous peak yet. That underscores the need to know when recessions happen and to buy at the right time.

You can be cash flow positive, with a cushion, only if you buy at the right time, at the right price.

[Coronita]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Flu, If you want, just look at Case Shiller for Vegas. The market is not back to previous peak yet. That underscores the need to know when recessions happen and to buy at the right time.

You can be cash flow positive, with a cushion, only if you buy at the right time, at the right price.[/quote]

Dude, you’re really really dense if you think you’re responding to me, lol. Do you really think I know Case-Shiller like the back of my hand to the degree that Friend has been posting? Think about that one. But carry on.

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita][quote=FlyerInHi]Flu, If you want, just look at Case Shiller for Vegas. The market is not back to previous peak yet. That underscores the need to know when recessions happen and to buy at the right time.

You can be cash flow positive, with a cushion, only if you buy at the right time, at the right price.[/quote]

Dude, you’re really really dense if you think you’re responding to me, lol. Do you really think I know Case-Shiller like the back of my hand to the degree that Friend has been posting? Think about that one. But carry on.[/quote]

He not understand Case Shiller. He’s a low education coastal elite from the Sun Belt.

C-S has tiers. Upper tier way below peak. Mid Tier well below peak. Low tier where he invest in bullet riddled condos? Pretty much back to peak! Do they call you the Kevlar Vested Landlord?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LVXRHTSA

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LVXRMTNSA

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LVXRLTSA

[Anonymous]

And in case you wonder about SD low tier where we invest?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SDXRLTSA

Zoom!!!! And we get well employed tenants with high credit scores. We dont spend our time dealing with the non paying, dope smoking, condo destroying, serial evictee headaches you do

[FlyerInHi]

300k is Vegas is not low tier. But that’s irrelevant.
My point was simply that you buy only after a recession has been announced. That’s only smart. If you must buy, then buy something well within one’s means.

If you buy at the peak, it may take you a lifetime to recover.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=TheBrianNarrative]And in case you wonder about SD low tier where we invest?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SDXRLTSA

Zoom!!!! And we get well employed tenants with high credit scores. We dont spend our time dealing with the non paying, dope smoking, condo destroying, serial evictee headaches you do[/quote]

Profits depends on how much effort you put into in.

I don’t have any issues with my tenants because I screen carefully. However I am involved with other owners with gentrification efforts. That’s how I see the dark side of America. America is not #1 when we have 20% of our population living paycheck to paycheck, substance addicted. That requires a policy response. Ignore or deny it if you want but that will only cause American decline.

[Anonymous]

Say the low education coastal elite from the sun belt that has spent much of the last decade complaining about his tenants and his neighbors

My last tenant stayed eight years. Never late once. Only thing I ever had to do was help Her once or twice when she locked her self out. Property almost tripled in value and rent return was 20% on down payment cause I never raised the rent. Could’ve been higher but she was helping support her mom and I like that so I never raised it.

[an]

[quote=TheBrianNarrative]Say the low education coastal elite from the sun belt that has spent much of the last decade complaining about his tenants and his neighbors

My last tenant stayed eight years. Never late once. Only thing I ever had to do was help Her once or twice when she locked her self out. Property almost tripled in value and rent return was 20% on down payment cause I never raised the rent. Could’ve been higher but she was helping support her mom and I like that so I never raised it.[/quote]
I’m with you. Time is money. The less time I have to spend on managing my rental, the better. I find SFR tenant so far to be much better to deal w/ and they don’t call you for the little stuff. One of my tenant ask if they can replace the window AC by themselves.

I have a great single mom tenant who has been in the house for 8 years now w/ the same rent. She’s now about 20% below market rent. I would have kept the rent the same the next time her lease renewed, but with the new rent cap law, I have to raise it a little. Still below market rent, but have to keep it not too far bellow.

[Coronita]

[quote=covidwithlime][quote=TheBrianNarrative]Say the low education coastal elite from the sun belt that has spent much of the last decade complaining about his tenants and his neighbors

My last tenant stayed eight years. Never late once. Only thing I ever had to do was help Her once or twice when she locked her self out. Property almost tripled in value and rent return was 20% on down payment cause I never raised the rent. Could’ve been higher but she was helping support her mom and I like that so I never raised it.[/quote]
I’m with you. Time is money. The less time I have to spend on managing my rental, the better. I find SFR tenant so far to be much better to deal w/ and they don’t call you for the little stuff. One of my tenant ask if they can replace the window AC by themselves.

I have a great single mom tenant who has been in the house for 8 years now w/ the same rent. She’s now about 20% below market rent. I would have kept the rent the same the next time her lease renewed, but with the new rent cap law, I have to raise it a little. Still below market rent, but have to keep it not too far bellow.[/quote]

I have the opposite experience. I find the small professional enginerd tenants usually leave me alone because they are too busy working or busying raising a family. I can only get 5 years out of them because that’s usually how long before they get their greencard and move on to buy their own house. But then again, after their 5 years, their peers that are just starting out end up taking their place. I think the longest vacancy I had was maybe 1 month in those condos. The other condo in not as near SDSU saw really good appreciation but saw a much rougher tenant pool. Fortunately I got a very nice grad student that stayed there almost 4-5 years and never skipped a rent, but being all the way down there it was managed professionally simply because I didn’t want to deal with when things broke there. As soon as the lease was up and they had other plans, I sold it, took the appreciation and bought back in closer area with better tenant pool. SFH rent is still too early, probably will be more difficult. We will see. CarmelV tenants seem to be really picky. But I guess that’s the price to pay for >$4000+/month rentals.
Hopefully 2 more additional properties, and I’m done here. I think I have enough dividend income on the non-rental income stream to make up for the rest.

[Anonymous]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=TheBrianNarrative]Ok you roll the dice in Vegas. We’ll see how that goes the next few years[/quote]

Flu, you do realize that Vegas was discounted 70% from previous peak and has not recovered yet? A friend bought a place in 2006 for $360k. He recently sold for $320k.
He lost bigly. That’s why one needs to time it right with recessions.

I don’t even like Vegas. But I invested there for the money. It’s an ugly sprawling city but It’s a top 10 metro where people like to live and visit. Yes, it’s gentrifying. A condo downtown is worth more than a house in the best suburbs.

When I’m old, I’ll take my USD rental income and travel the world. I can rent in places like Berlin where it’s cheaper to rent than to buy. Plus that gives me flexibility to go where I please.[/quote]

All casinos and non-essential business shuttered. In Nevada, gambling taxes are second only to sales taxes as a percentage of the state’s annual budget. The leisure and hospitality industry directly employs one of every four workers in the state and has an economic output of about $68 billion in Nevada.

Thats most of 25% of the states workers soon to be unemployed quite possibly for months. They are also the main consumers there with tourists gone. Wow, it could hit 50% unemployment. This isnt even funny anymore. What a mess

[Author]

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