Shiller a long-term semi bull ?

[NotCranky]

Hey, I was just joking peterb.Rich sounds reasonable, with good arguments and fair caveats.

[peterb]

Time will tell. But everything I’m observing and the analysis I find most accurate tells me to stay mostly in US$. It’s a trend that has legs as the planet unwinds from the biggest credit bubble burst in it’s history. I honestly think that gold could get to $600 and the S&P to 600 by mid-2009.
Unemployment in CA is at 7.7%, 6.1% in the USA. A lot more mortgage defaults are headed towards us. Lay-off announcements are dominating PR releases. Credit card defaults are looking to break records as well. I dont see any positive news on the horizon. I’d wait for a sign or two of a reversal before going long on anything right now. But that’s just me. I’m convervative.

[peterb]

Time will tell. But everything I’m observing and the analysis I find most accurate tells me to stay mostly in US$. It’s a trend that has legs as the planet unwinds from the biggest credit bubble burst in it’s history. I honestly think that gold could get to $600 and the S&P to 600 by mid-2009.
Unemployment in CA is at 7.7%, 6.1% in the USA. A lot more mortgage defaults are headed towards us. Lay-off announcements are dominating PR releases. Credit card defaults are looking to break records as well. I dont see any positive news on the horizon. I’d wait for a sign or two of a reversal before going long on anything right now. But that’s just me. I’m convervative.

[peterb]

Time will tell. But everything I’m observing and the analysis I find most accurate tells me to stay mostly in US$. It’s a trend that has legs as the planet unwinds from the biggest credit bubble burst in it’s history. I honestly think that gold could get to $600 and the S&P to 600 by mid-2009.
Unemployment in CA is at 7.7%, 6.1% in the USA. A lot more mortgage defaults are headed towards us. Lay-off announcements are dominating PR releases. Credit card defaults are looking to break records as well. I dont see any positive news on the horizon. I’d wait for a sign or two of a reversal before going long on anything right now. But that’s just me. I’m convervative.

[peterb]

Time will tell. But everything I’m observing and the analysis I find most accurate tells me to stay mostly in US$. It’s a trend that has legs as the planet unwinds from the biggest credit bubble burst in it’s history. I honestly think that gold could get to $600 and the S&P to 600 by mid-2009.
Unemployment in CA is at 7.7%, 6.1% in the USA. A lot more mortgage defaults are headed towards us. Lay-off announcements are dominating PR releases. Credit card defaults are looking to break records as well. I dont see any positive news on the horizon. I’d wait for a sign or two of a reversal before going long on anything right now. But that’s just me. I’m convervative.

[peterb]

Time will tell. But everything I’m observing and the analysis I find most accurate tells me to stay mostly in US$. It’s a trend that has legs as the planet unwinds from the biggest credit bubble burst in it’s history. I honestly think that gold could get to $600 and the S&P to 600 by mid-2009.
Unemployment in CA is at 7.7%, 6.1% in the USA. A lot more mortgage defaults are headed towards us. Lay-off announcements are dominating PR releases. Credit card defaults are looking to break records as well. I dont see any positive news on the horizon. I’d wait for a sign or two of a reversal before going long on anything right now. But that’s just me. I’m convervative.

[gandalf]

I’m somewhere in between Shiller and peterb.

Not about to go long yet, but I think we’ll manage to get through this. Widespread difficulties in the months ahead, lots of pitfalls that could send us into a deep funk. OTH, if we reinvent the energy industry, cheap and renewable, I think the economy comes roaring back.

[gandalf]

I’m somewhere in between Shiller and peterb.

Not about to go long yet, but I think we’ll manage to get through this. Widespread difficulties in the months ahead, lots of pitfalls that could send us into a deep funk. OTH, if we reinvent the energy industry, cheap and renewable, I think the economy comes roaring back.

[gandalf]

I’m somewhere in between Shiller and peterb.

Not about to go long yet, but I think we’ll manage to get through this. Widespread difficulties in the months ahead, lots of pitfalls that could send us into a deep funk. OTH, if we reinvent the energy industry, cheap and renewable, I think the economy comes roaring back.

[gandalf]

I’m somewhere in between Shiller and peterb.

Not about to go long yet, but I think we’ll manage to get through this. Widespread difficulties in the months ahead, lots of pitfalls that could send us into a deep funk. OTH, if we reinvent the energy industry, cheap and renewable, I think the economy comes roaring back.

[gandalf]

I’m somewhere in between Shiller and peterb.

Not about to go long yet, but I think we’ll manage to get through this. Widespread difficulties in the months ahead, lots of pitfalls that could send us into a deep funk. OTH, if we reinvent the energy industry, cheap and renewable, I think the economy comes roaring back.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I don’t disagree completely with peterb either. If one has been out of the market I think this is a great time to start dollar-cost-averaging back in over the next 1-2 years to get back to whatever portion of your retirement (long-term money) portfolio you plan to have in stocks for the next 10-20 years.

Still, a hefty cash allocation (for me it’s 40%) is important for stability and to play a little defense.
Also, if you want to use the money within the next 5 years or less (e.g. to buy a home, start a business, etc) I would not put it in stocks.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I don’t disagree completely with peterb either. If one has been out of the market I think this is a great time to start dollar-cost-averaging back in over the next 1-2 years to get back to whatever portion of your retirement (long-term money) portfolio you plan to have in stocks for the next 10-20 years.

Still, a hefty cash allocation (for me it’s 40%) is important for stability and to play a little defense.
Also, if you want to use the money within the next 5 years or less (e.g. to buy a home, start a business, etc) I would not put it in stocks.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I don’t disagree completely with peterb either. If one has been out of the market I think this is a great time to start dollar-cost-averaging back in over the next 1-2 years to get back to whatever portion of your retirement (long-term money) portfolio you plan to have in stocks for the next 10-20 years.

Still, a hefty cash allocation (for me it’s 40%) is important for stability and to play a little defense.
Also, if you want to use the money within the next 5 years or less (e.g. to buy a home, start a business, etc) I would not put it in stocks.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I don’t disagree completely with peterb either. If one has been out of the market I think this is a great time to start dollar-cost-averaging back in over the next 1-2 years to get back to whatever portion of your retirement (long-term money) portfolio you plan to have in stocks for the next 10-20 years.

Still, a hefty cash allocation (for me it’s 40%) is important for stability and to play a little defense.
Also, if you want to use the money within the next 5 years or less (e.g. to buy a home, start a business, etc) I would not put it in stocks.

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