SD inventories dropping like a rock . . . disconnect from other “bubble” markets

[CA renter]

[quote=Arraya][quote=CA renter][quote=PadreBrian]No one is selling, Period. Add in the refinancing/bailout of the alt-a option only bank robbing clowns. Then add in the fact home builders are squeezing the supply to keep their price up, and you finally get the SD market. [/quote]

Bingo.

I’d like to see listing history for these months from 1995-present. I think the low inventory numbers are more due to fewer listings than to higher demand — though demand IS higher than the past few years, largely because of lower prices (esp. for those who are price anchoring to bubble prices, instead of pre-bubble prices), artificially suppressed interest rates, taxpayer give-aways to new buyers, GSE/FHA/VA overwhelming the market with cheap loans and little/no down, etc.

Currently, there is every reason to have a strong selling season, with the only exception being employment. What happens when/if the govt backs down when the bond market forces its hand?[/quote]

Do you mean, the bond market vigilante?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akW9GQw.X9KM&refer=worldwide

For the first time since another Democrat occupied the White House, investors from Beijing to Zurich are challenging a president’s attempts to revive the economy with record deficit spending. Fifteen years after forcing Bill Clinton to abandon his own stimulus plans, the so-called bond vigilantes are punishing Barack Obama for quadrupling the budget shortfall to $1.85 trillion. By driving up yields on U.S. debt, they are also threatening to derail Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s efforts to cut borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.

[/quote]

Why, yes! There they are! 🙂

[schizo2buyORnot]

[quote=DWCAP]Any reason you chose those timeframes?

[/quote]

2 reasons. First, that is as far back as the data goes in the link I provided. I don’t have the time to do original research on YOY inventory back farther than 4 years. Sheesh. Second, with the bubble peaking in late 2005, the years 2006 to present are very relevant in terms of what the market, post bubble burst is doing. There is no “manipulation” of data. Its straight facts from listings of RE for sale. Also no matter how you slice it, the difference between LV and SD in terms of inventory builds/draw down is stark. SD inventories have decreased dramatically in the past year. While not marking a bottom, one pre-curser of a bottom will be shrinking inventories, which we clearly now have. Its not enough, there are of course other factors (interest rates, employment, etc.) but a bottom will be preceded by steadily and substantial decreases in the inventory of homes for sale. Its just facts for PIGGs to kick about.

[schizo2buyORnot]

[quote=DWCAP]Any reason you chose those timeframes?

[/quote]

2 reasons. First, that is as far back as the data goes in the link I provided. I don’t have the time to do original research on YOY inventory back farther than 4 years. Sheesh. Second, with the bubble peaking in late 2005, the years 2006 to present are very relevant in terms of what the market, post bubble burst is doing. There is no “manipulation” of data. Its straight facts from listings of RE for sale. Also no matter how you slice it, the difference between LV and SD in terms of inventory builds/draw down is stark. SD inventories have decreased dramatically in the past year. While not marking a bottom, one pre-curser of a bottom will be shrinking inventories, which we clearly now have. Its not enough, there are of course other factors (interest rates, employment, etc.) but a bottom will be preceded by steadily and substantial decreases in the inventory of homes for sale. Its just facts for PIGGs to kick about.

[schizo2buyORnot]

[quote=DWCAP]Any reason you chose those timeframes?

[/quote]

2 reasons. First, that is as far back as the data goes in the link I provided. I don’t have the time to do original research on YOY inventory back farther than 4 years. Sheesh. Second, with the bubble peaking in late 2005, the years 2006 to present are very relevant in terms of what the market, post bubble burst is doing. There is no “manipulation” of data. Its straight facts from listings of RE for sale. Also no matter how you slice it, the difference between LV and SD in terms of inventory builds/draw down is stark. SD inventories have decreased dramatically in the past year. While not marking a bottom, one pre-curser of a bottom will be shrinking inventories, which we clearly now have. Its not enough, there are of course other factors (interest rates, employment, etc.) but a bottom will be preceded by steadily and substantial decreases in the inventory of homes for sale. Its just facts for PIGGs to kick about.

[schizo2buyORnot]

[quote=DWCAP]Any reason you chose those timeframes?

[/quote]

2 reasons. First, that is as far back as the data goes in the link I provided. I don’t have the time to do original research on YOY inventory back farther than 4 years. Sheesh. Second, with the bubble peaking in late 2005, the years 2006 to present are very relevant in terms of what the market, post bubble burst is doing. There is no “manipulation” of data. Its straight facts from listings of RE for sale. Also no matter how you slice it, the difference between LV and SD in terms of inventory builds/draw down is stark. SD inventories have decreased dramatically in the past year. While not marking a bottom, one pre-curser of a bottom will be shrinking inventories, which we clearly now have. Its not enough, there are of course other factors (interest rates, employment, etc.) but a bottom will be preceded by steadily and substantial decreases in the inventory of homes for sale. Its just facts for PIGGs to kick about.

[schizo2buyORnot]

[quote=DWCAP]Any reason you chose those timeframes?

[/quote]

2 reasons. First, that is as far back as the data goes in the link I provided. I don’t have the time to do original research on YOY inventory back farther than 4 years. Sheesh. Second, with the bubble peaking in late 2005, the years 2006 to present are very relevant in terms of what the market, post bubble burst is doing. There is no “manipulation” of data. Its straight facts from listings of RE for sale. Also no matter how you slice it, the difference between LV and SD in terms of inventory builds/draw down is stark. SD inventories have decreased dramatically in the past year. While not marking a bottom, one pre-curser of a bottom will be shrinking inventories, which we clearly now have. Its not enough, there are of course other factors (interest rates, employment, etc.) but a bottom will be preceded by steadily and substantial decreases in the inventory of homes for sale. Its just facts for PIGGs to kick about.

[denverite]

Although I don’t live in SD, I do speak with a resident of North County. The prevailing belief seems to be that RE prices are and will remain stable, and perhaps rise. There does not seem to be any kind of panic. Additionally, the rate of job turnover (household moves required) is exceedingly low. It seems that most people are just hulkering down and trying to wait out the job and housing recession, therefore, no must-sell organic inventory.

[denverite]

Although I don’t live in SD, I do speak with a resident of North County. The prevailing belief seems to be that RE prices are and will remain stable, and perhaps rise. There does not seem to be any kind of panic. Additionally, the rate of job turnover (household moves required) is exceedingly low. It seems that most people are just hulkering down and trying to wait out the job and housing recession, therefore, no must-sell organic inventory.

[denverite]

Although I don’t live in SD, I do speak with a resident of North County. The prevailing belief seems to be that RE prices are and will remain stable, and perhaps rise. There does not seem to be any kind of panic. Additionally, the rate of job turnover (household moves required) is exceedingly low. It seems that most people are just hulkering down and trying to wait out the job and housing recession, therefore, no must-sell organic inventory.

[denverite]

Although I don’t live in SD, I do speak with a resident of North County. The prevailing belief seems to be that RE prices are and will remain stable, and perhaps rise. There does not seem to be any kind of panic. Additionally, the rate of job turnover (household moves required) is exceedingly low. It seems that most people are just hulkering down and trying to wait out the job and housing recession, therefore, no must-sell organic inventory.

[denverite]

Although I don’t live in SD, I do speak with a resident of North County. The prevailing belief seems to be that RE prices are and will remain stable, and perhaps rise. There does not seem to be any kind of panic. Additionally, the rate of job turnover (household moves required) is exceedingly low. It seems that most people are just hulkering down and trying to wait out the job and housing recession, therefore, no must-sell organic inventory.

[aldante]

[quote=denverite]Although I don’t live in SD, I do speak with a resident of North County. The prevailing belief seems to be that RE prices are and will remain stable, and perhaps rise. There does not seem to be any kind of panic. Additionally, the rate of job turnover (household moves required) is exceedingly low. It seems that most people are just hulkering down and trying to wait out the job and housing recession, therefore, no must-sell organic inventory.[/quote]

Sorry but any analysis that has “organinc” anything is completely suspect (IMHO) for north county real estate. From my observations there is huge amounts of “shadow inventory” in North County – supported only by the bailout. In a way North County San Diego homeowners are the uppercrust of welfare recipients.
See http://piggington.com/who039s_getting_the_really_good_prices
It is well documented (and forcefully defended by some on this board) that the real market is nothing we mortals ever get to see. If that is the case…..then “logic” or “organic” do not have any credibility. It is who you know…when you know them…. all IMHO of course.

[aldante]

[quote=denverite]Although I don’t live in SD, I do speak with a resident of North County. The prevailing belief seems to be that RE prices are and will remain stable, and perhaps rise. There does not seem to be any kind of panic. Additionally, the rate of job turnover (household moves required) is exceedingly low. It seems that most people are just hulkering down and trying to wait out the job and housing recession, therefore, no must-sell organic inventory.[/quote]

Sorry but any analysis that has “organinc” anything is completely suspect (IMHO) for north county real estate. From my observations there is huge amounts of “shadow inventory” in North County – supported only by the bailout. In a way North County San Diego homeowners are the uppercrust of welfare recipients.
See http://piggington.com/who039s_getting_the_really_good_prices
It is well documented (and forcefully defended by some on this board) that the real market is nothing we mortals ever get to see. If that is the case…..then “logic” or “organic” do not have any credibility. It is who you know…when you know them…. all IMHO of course.

[aldante]

[quote=denverite]Although I don’t live in SD, I do speak with a resident of North County. The prevailing belief seems to be that RE prices are and will remain stable, and perhaps rise. There does not seem to be any kind of panic. Additionally, the rate of job turnover (household moves required) is exceedingly low. It seems that most people are just hulkering down and trying to wait out the job and housing recession, therefore, no must-sell organic inventory.[/quote]

Sorry but any analysis that has “organinc” anything is completely suspect (IMHO) for north county real estate. From my observations there is huge amounts of “shadow inventory” in North County – supported only by the bailout. In a way North County San Diego homeowners are the uppercrust of welfare recipients.
See http://piggington.com/who039s_getting_the_really_good_prices
It is well documented (and forcefully defended by some on this board) that the real market is nothing we mortals ever get to see. If that is the case…..then “logic” or “organic” do not have any credibility. It is who you know…when you know them…. all IMHO of course.

[aldante]

[quote=denverite]Although I don’t live in SD, I do speak with a resident of North County. The prevailing belief seems to be that RE prices are and will remain stable, and perhaps rise. There does not seem to be any kind of panic. Additionally, the rate of job turnover (household moves required) is exceedingly low. It seems that most people are just hulkering down and trying to wait out the job and housing recession, therefore, no must-sell organic inventory.[/quote]

Sorry but any analysis that has “organinc” anything is completely suspect (IMHO) for north county real estate. From my observations there is huge amounts of “shadow inventory” in North County – supported only by the bailout. In a way North County San Diego homeowners are the uppercrust of welfare recipients.
See http://piggington.com/who039s_getting_the_really_good_prices
It is well documented (and forcefully defended by some on this board) that the real market is nothing we mortals ever get to see. If that is the case…..then “logic” or “organic” do not have any credibility. It is who you know…when you know them…. all IMHO of course.

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