SD inventories dropping like a rock . . . disconnect from other “bubble” markets

[Bob]

One big difference between California and other bubble states is that here we’ve had state moratoriums off and on for the past six months. The effects of those moratoriums reduced supply, while at the same time, purchasers gobbled up existing supply. Don’t worry, once rates go up, supply will increase.

[Coronita]

[quote=JustLurking]You are right, XBox. The high end inventory is particularly nuts. There are currently about 75 La Jolla listings at or above $4M. And how many sales closed over $4M so far this year? Two.[/quote]

I’m curious though how many high end *need* to sell. Something in this price range usually sits for a very long time in normal times as well.

[Coronita]

[quote=JustLurking]You are right, XBox. The high end inventory is particularly nuts. There are currently about 75 La Jolla listings at or above $4M. And how many sales closed over $4M so far this year? Two.[/quote]

I’m curious though how many high end *need* to sell. Something in this price range usually sits for a very long time in normal times as well.

[Coronita]

[quote=JustLurking]You are right, XBox. The high end inventory is particularly nuts. There are currently about 75 La Jolla listings at or above $4M. And how many sales closed over $4M so far this year? Two.[/quote]

I’m curious though how many high end *need* to sell. Something in this price range usually sits for a very long time in normal times as well.

[Coronita]

[quote=JustLurking]You are right, XBox. The high end inventory is particularly nuts. There are currently about 75 La Jolla listings at or above $4M. And how many sales closed over $4M so far this year? Two.[/quote]

I’m curious though how many high end *need* to sell. Something in this price range usually sits for a very long time in normal times as well.

[Coronita]

[quote=JustLurking]You are right, XBox. The high end inventory is particularly nuts. There are currently about 75 La Jolla listings at or above $4M. And how many sales closed over $4M so far this year? Two.[/quote]

I’m curious though how many high end *need* to sell. Something in this price range usually sits for a very long time in normal times as well.

[DWCAP]

first, I know the super high end sells slow, but that is a .4/month selling rate. With 75 on the market, that is what, a 15 year supply? That is nuts, any way you slice it.

Second, Maybe I am reading the OP post wrong, but Y/Y isnt LV inventory DOWN about 1k? Meaning LV is under the same pressures SD is, just not the same extent?
I suppose he is talking about 06-09, but that is a really weird timeframe. LV and SD markets are totally seperate, with differnt timelines of bubble colapse and amounts of bubble pricing. In 06 we wernt even in a recession. This seems to be too short of a time frame to give a good a good sense of historcial president and too long a time frame to account for the short term forces buffiting the market.

You can find alot of evidence to support any argument want if you get to manipulate the time frames. Any reason you chose those timeframes?

[DWCAP]

first, I know the super high end sells slow, but that is a .4/month selling rate. With 75 on the market, that is what, a 15 year supply? That is nuts, any way you slice it.

Second, Maybe I am reading the OP post wrong, but Y/Y isnt LV inventory DOWN about 1k? Meaning LV is under the same pressures SD is, just not the same extent?
I suppose he is talking about 06-09, but that is a really weird timeframe. LV and SD markets are totally seperate, with differnt timelines of bubble colapse and amounts of bubble pricing. In 06 we wernt even in a recession. This seems to be too short of a time frame to give a good a good sense of historcial president and too long a time frame to account for the short term forces buffiting the market.

You can find alot of evidence to support any argument want if you get to manipulate the time frames. Any reason you chose those timeframes?

[DWCAP]

first, I know the super high end sells slow, but that is a .4/month selling rate. With 75 on the market, that is what, a 15 year supply? That is nuts, any way you slice it.

Second, Maybe I am reading the OP post wrong, but Y/Y isnt LV inventory DOWN about 1k? Meaning LV is under the same pressures SD is, just not the same extent?
I suppose he is talking about 06-09, but that is a really weird timeframe. LV and SD markets are totally seperate, with differnt timelines of bubble colapse and amounts of bubble pricing. In 06 we wernt even in a recession. This seems to be too short of a time frame to give a good a good sense of historcial president and too long a time frame to account for the short term forces buffiting the market.

You can find alot of evidence to support any argument want if you get to manipulate the time frames. Any reason you chose those timeframes?

[DWCAP]

first, I know the super high end sells slow, but that is a .4/month selling rate. With 75 on the market, that is what, a 15 year supply? That is nuts, any way you slice it.

Second, Maybe I am reading the OP post wrong, but Y/Y isnt LV inventory DOWN about 1k? Meaning LV is under the same pressures SD is, just not the same extent?
I suppose he is talking about 06-09, but that is a really weird timeframe. LV and SD markets are totally seperate, with differnt timelines of bubble colapse and amounts of bubble pricing. In 06 we wernt even in a recession. This seems to be too short of a time frame to give a good a good sense of historcial president and too long a time frame to account for the short term forces buffiting the market.

You can find alot of evidence to support any argument want if you get to manipulate the time frames. Any reason you chose those timeframes?

[DWCAP]

first, I know the super high end sells slow, but that is a .4/month selling rate. With 75 on the market, that is what, a 15 year supply? That is nuts, any way you slice it.

Second, Maybe I am reading the OP post wrong, but Y/Y isnt LV inventory DOWN about 1k? Meaning LV is under the same pressures SD is, just not the same extent?
I suppose he is talking about 06-09, but that is a really weird timeframe. LV and SD markets are totally seperate, with differnt timelines of bubble colapse and amounts of bubble pricing. In 06 we wernt even in a recession. This seems to be too short of a time frame to give a good a good sense of historcial president and too long a time frame to account for the short term forces buffiting the market.

You can find alot of evidence to support any argument want if you get to manipulate the time frames. Any reason you chose those timeframes?

[CA renter]

[quote=Arraya][quote=CA renter][quote=PadreBrian]No one is selling, Period. Add in the refinancing/bailout of the alt-a option only bank robbing clowns. Then add in the fact home builders are squeezing the supply to keep their price up, and you finally get the SD market. [/quote]

Bingo.

I’d like to see listing history for these months from 1995-present. I think the low inventory numbers are more due to fewer listings than to higher demand — though demand IS higher than the past few years, largely because of lower prices (esp. for those who are price anchoring to bubble prices, instead of pre-bubble prices), artificially suppressed interest rates, taxpayer give-aways to new buyers, GSE/FHA/VA overwhelming the market with cheap loans and little/no down, etc.

Currently, there is every reason to have a strong selling season, with the only exception being employment. What happens when/if the govt backs down when the bond market forces its hand?[/quote]

Do you mean, the bond market vigilante?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akW9GQw.X9KM&refer=worldwide

For the first time since another Democrat occupied the White House, investors from Beijing to Zurich are challenging a president’s attempts to revive the economy with record deficit spending. Fifteen years after forcing Bill Clinton to abandon his own stimulus plans, the so-called bond vigilantes are punishing Barack Obama for quadrupling the budget shortfall to $1.85 trillion. By driving up yields on U.S. debt, they are also threatening to derail Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s efforts to cut borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.

[/quote]

Why, yes! There they are! 🙂

[CA renter]

[quote=Arraya][quote=CA renter][quote=PadreBrian]No one is selling, Period. Add in the refinancing/bailout of the alt-a option only bank robbing clowns. Then add in the fact home builders are squeezing the supply to keep their price up, and you finally get the SD market. [/quote]

Bingo.

I’d like to see listing history for these months from 1995-present. I think the low inventory numbers are more due to fewer listings than to higher demand — though demand IS higher than the past few years, largely because of lower prices (esp. for those who are price anchoring to bubble prices, instead of pre-bubble prices), artificially suppressed interest rates, taxpayer give-aways to new buyers, GSE/FHA/VA overwhelming the market with cheap loans and little/no down, etc.

Currently, there is every reason to have a strong selling season, with the only exception being employment. What happens when/if the govt backs down when the bond market forces its hand?[/quote]

Do you mean, the bond market vigilante?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akW9GQw.X9KM&refer=worldwide

For the first time since another Democrat occupied the White House, investors from Beijing to Zurich are challenging a president’s attempts to revive the economy with record deficit spending. Fifteen years after forcing Bill Clinton to abandon his own stimulus plans, the so-called bond vigilantes are punishing Barack Obama for quadrupling the budget shortfall to $1.85 trillion. By driving up yields on U.S. debt, they are also threatening to derail Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s efforts to cut borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.

[/quote]

Why, yes! There they are! 🙂

[CA renter]

[quote=Arraya][quote=CA renter][quote=PadreBrian]No one is selling, Period. Add in the refinancing/bailout of the alt-a option only bank robbing clowns. Then add in the fact home builders are squeezing the supply to keep their price up, and you finally get the SD market. [/quote]

Bingo.

I’d like to see listing history for these months from 1995-present. I think the low inventory numbers are more due to fewer listings than to higher demand — though demand IS higher than the past few years, largely because of lower prices (esp. for those who are price anchoring to bubble prices, instead of pre-bubble prices), artificially suppressed interest rates, taxpayer give-aways to new buyers, GSE/FHA/VA overwhelming the market with cheap loans and little/no down, etc.

Currently, there is every reason to have a strong selling season, with the only exception being employment. What happens when/if the govt backs down when the bond market forces its hand?[/quote]

Do you mean, the bond market vigilante?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akW9GQw.X9KM&refer=worldwide

For the first time since another Democrat occupied the White House, investors from Beijing to Zurich are challenging a president’s attempts to revive the economy with record deficit spending. Fifteen years after forcing Bill Clinton to abandon his own stimulus plans, the so-called bond vigilantes are punishing Barack Obama for quadrupling the budget shortfall to $1.85 trillion. By driving up yields on U.S. debt, they are also threatening to derail Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s efforts to cut borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.

[/quote]

Why, yes! There they are! 🙂

[CA renter]

[quote=Arraya][quote=CA renter][quote=PadreBrian]No one is selling, Period. Add in the refinancing/bailout of the alt-a option only bank robbing clowns. Then add in the fact home builders are squeezing the supply to keep their price up, and you finally get the SD market. [/quote]

Bingo.

I’d like to see listing history for these months from 1995-present. I think the low inventory numbers are more due to fewer listings than to higher demand — though demand IS higher than the past few years, largely because of lower prices (esp. for those who are price anchoring to bubble prices, instead of pre-bubble prices), artificially suppressed interest rates, taxpayer give-aways to new buyers, GSE/FHA/VA overwhelming the market with cheap loans and little/no down, etc.

Currently, there is every reason to have a strong selling season, with the only exception being employment. What happens when/if the govt backs down when the bond market forces its hand?[/quote]

Do you mean, the bond market vigilante?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akW9GQw.X9KM&refer=worldwide

For the first time since another Democrat occupied the White House, investors from Beijing to Zurich are challenging a president’s attempts to revive the economy with record deficit spending. Fifteen years after forcing Bill Clinton to abandon his own stimulus plans, the so-called bond vigilantes are punishing Barack Obama for quadrupling the budget shortfall to $1.85 trillion. By driving up yields on U.S. debt, they are also threatening to derail Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s efforts to cut borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.

[/quote]

Why, yes! There they are! 🙂

[Author]

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